AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Jun 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1381
Euro's anticipated rally above previous Jun's 1.1347 high to a 3-month peak of 1.1377 in New York session due to continued usd's weakness suggests recent upmove would head to 1.1400/10 after consolidation, near term loss of upward momentum should cap price below daily res at 1.1448.

On the downside, only below 1.1317 indicates temporary top has been made, then risk is seen for a stronger retracement towards 1.1284 before prospect of rebound.

Data to be released later:
Japan coincident index, leading economic index, Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, and U.S. Chicago national activity index, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Jun 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 107.37
Although dollar has staged a strong rebound after falling to a fresh 5-1/2 month low at 107.06 on Friday, as 107.73 (New York) has capped recovery, consolidation with downside bias remains and below said sup would extend medium term decline from April's 4-month peak at 122.39 to 106.90 but loss of momentum should keep price above 106.75 today.

On the upside, only above 107.82 would risk stronger retracement towards 108.07, break, 108.44.

On the data front, U.S. will later release Chicago National Activity index and Dallas Fed Mfg Business index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Jun 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1405
Despite yesterday's resumption of recent upmove to a fresh 3-month high of 1.1403 in New York due to continued usd's weakness, near term loss of upward momentum would prevent strong gain and reckon res at 1.1448 (March high) would cap present rise and yield a much-needed minor correction later today or tomorrow.

On the downside, below 1.1373 would be the 1st signal temporary top is in place and may yield retracement towards 1.1347 before rebound.

On the data front, euro area eco. calendar is pretty light today with France's business climate being the only data due out.
ECB's VP Guindos will speak at an event organised by Italian Banking Association in Rome at 07:15GMT, then later ECB's Coeure will speak at a dinner event organised by ISDA in Frankfurt at 17:15GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Jun 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 107.00
Despite Mon's sideways swings after Fri's strong rebound from 107.06 to 107.73 (New York), intra-day fall from 107.41 at Asian open and then break of said sup to a fresh 5-1/2 month low at 106.79 on active safe-haven yen buying suggests decline from 112.39 (Apr) would pressure price towards 106.24 before prospect of rebound later.

On the upside, only above 107.25 would indicate temporary bottom made and risk stronger retracement towards 107.50/60.

The U.S. will release a slew of eco. data later today starting with U.S. building permits, Redbook, monthly home price, CS home price, consumer confidence, new home sales, Richmond Fed manufacturing index.
Also we have New York Fed's Williams speaking at 12:45GMT, then followed by Atlanta Fed's Bostic at 14:00GMT n last but not least, Fed's Chairman J. Powell will speak at forum in New York called "A Conversation with Jerome H. Powell," at 17:00 GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Jun 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1360
Despite resumption of recent upmove to a fresh 3-month peak of 1.1412 in Asia, subsequent strong retreat to as low as 1.1345 after comments by Fed officials dampened market expectation of aggressive rate cuts suggests long-awaited correction of medium-term rise from 1.1108 (May) has taken place and 1-2 days of volatile trading is seen, reckon 1.1317 would contain weakness and bring rebound.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1398 (NY high Tue) signals pullback is over and would head towards next daily chart target at 1.1448 later this week.

Economic calendar is pretty thin in the euro area countries n Germany's Gfk consumer confidence is the only data due out at 06:00GMT. ECB's Governing Council member will be speaking at a legal conference in Frankfurt at 09:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Jun 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1371
Although euro's decline from Tuesday's fresh 3-month high of 1.1412 to 1.1345 suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top, yesterday's sideways trading indicates consolidation would continue initially today and as long as 1.1317 (previous res, now sup) holds, upside bias remains for marginal gain, loss of upward momentum should cap price below daily res at 1.1448.

Only below 1.1317 would risk stronger retracement of medium term rise from 2019 bottom at 1.1108 (May) to 1.1285/90.

On the data front, the euro area will release a slew of economic data (please refer to our EI section for details).

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Jun 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 108.04
Dollar's intra-day rise from 107.66 in Asia and then break above Wednesday's 107.84 high to 108.16 in Europe after media reported U.S.-China trade truce ahead of G20 summit suggests recent upmove from Tuesday's 5-1/2 month trough at 106.79 would head to 108.70/80 after consolidation before prospect of retreat later.

On the downside, only below 107.66 would indicate correction has ended instead and risks weakness to 107.37/41.

Data to be released later:
Italy MFG business confidence, consumer confidence, trade balance, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence, Germany CPI, HICP, Canada average weekly earnings.
U.S. GDP, PCE, pending home sales, KC Fed manufacturing index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Jun 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1367
Although euro has swung broadly sideways in last 2 sessions following early decline from Tuesday's fresh 3-month peak of 1.1412 to 1.1345 and initial range trading is envisaged, as long as 1.1317 (previous res, now sup) holds, recent upmove is likely to resume, however, loss of upward momentum is expected to cap price below daily res at 1.1448.

A daily close below 1.1317 may risk 'stronger' correction of the upmove from 2019 bottom at 1.1108 (May) to 1.1260/70 before prospect of rebound next week.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our E.I. page for details. ECB ececutive board member Lautenschlager will give introductory remarks at an event in Frankfurt at 07:30GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1285
Euro's stronger-than-expected decline after intra-day penetration of last week's 1.1345 trough to as low as 1.1282 in New York due to broad-based strength is usd suggests recent upmove from 2019 22-month bottom at 1.1108 has made a top at 1.1412 last week (Tue) and further weakness to 1.1220/25 may be seen before prospect of rebound later this week.

On the upside, only above 1.1345 signals euro's pullback has ended, then price may head back to 1.1383/93.

On the data front, Germany will kick off with retail sales, then France's budget balance n EU's producer prices. Dutch central bank president Klaas Knot and Lithuanian central bank governor Vitas Vasiliauskas, both ECB members will speak in Vilnius. They will also speak at a joint press conference at 08:30GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1292
Euro's decline from last Tuesday's 3-month high of 1.1412 to an 11-day low at 1.1276 yesterday suggests recent upmove from 2019 22-month bottom at 1.1108 (May) has made a top and as long as 1.1345 (last week's high, now res) holds, stronger correction towards 1.1221 (61.8% r of 1.1108-1.1412) is envisaged before prospect of rebound due to loss of downward momentum.

Only a firm break above Tuesday's 1.1321 high would be the first signal low has been made, then risk would shift to the upside for stronger retracement of said fall to 1.1345, break, 1.1355/60 later.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia AIG services index, trade balance, imports, exports, Japan services PMI, China Caixin services PMI.
Italy Markit services PMI, France Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, UK Markit services PMI.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, ADP employment change, trade balance, initial jobless claims, Markit services PMI, durables ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders, durables ex-transportation, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, and Canada trade balance, exports, imports.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1287
Despite euro's resumption of decline from Jun's 3-month peak at 1.1412 to correct medium-term upmove to a 12-day trough of 1.1269 (Europe) yesterday, subsequent sideways swings in New York session would bring consolidation before one more fall, 'loss of downward momentum' should keep price above 1.1220/25 and bring strong retracement of aforesaid fall.

A daily close above 1.1321 would be the 1st signal low has been formed, then stronger gain to 1.1345 would follow, break would head back to 1.1370/80.

Eco. calendar in the euro area countries is pretty light with EU's retails sales being the only data due out n trading may die down in European afternoon due to U.S. market holiday. We have ECB Chief Economist Lane speaking at a conference in Frankfurt at 07:00GMT and then ECB Vice President de Guindos giving a keynote address an an international conference in Lisbon at 9:15GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1280
Despite yesterday's narrow move following early decline from Jun's 3-month peak at 1.1412 to a 12-day low at 1.1269, outlook remains mildly bearish for marginal weakness, loss of downward momentum would keep price above 1.1221/25 and bring a stronger retracement of said fall.

A daily close above 1.1321 res would signal low is in place, stronger gain to 1.1345, then later 1.1370/80 would be seen.

On the data front, Germany will release industrial orders, then France's current account, trade balance, import n exports.
ECB Vice President de Guindos will speak at a conference in Madrid at 08:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Jul 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 108.03
Although the greenback has retreated after Monday's gap-up open on weekend news that U.S. and China will resume their trade talks and gain to 108.53 and minor consolidation would be seen ahead of today's U.S. jobs report, as said move suggests upmove from last Tuesday's 5-1/2 month trough at 106.79 has once again resumed, further gain towards 108.80 would be seen, however, over bought condition would keep price below 109.02/10 and yield a correction later this week.

On the downside, only below 107.06 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 107.57/60.

Data to be released on Friday :
Germany industrial orders, France current account, trade balance, imports, exports, UK Halifax house price, labour productivity.
USA non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, and Canada employment change, unemployment rate, Ivey PMI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1224
Euro's intra-day firm break of last Wednesday's 1.1269 low to a 2-week trough of 1.1208 after stronger-than-expected U.S. payrolls report in New York on Friday suggests early correction from May's 22-month bottom at 1.1108 has ended earlier at 1.1412 (June high) and downside bias remains for further weakness to 1.1182 but 1.1155/60 would hold today.

On the upside, only above 1.1269 signals temporary low is made and risks stronger retracement of recent decline to 1.1290/95 but res area at 1.1311/21 should cap upside.

On the data front, Germany will kick off with industrial production, imports n exports , trade balance and current account, then the EU will release Sentix professional investor confidence index. If the German data come out weaker then street forecast, one can expect renewed euro selling. The Eurogroup will meet in Brussels later today n ECB President Draghi and ECB Executive Board member Coeure will participate in the meeting.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT


EUR/USD - 1.1215
Euro's re-test of Fri's post-NFP 2-week trough of 1.1208 in New York after initial recovery to 1.1234 (Europe) suggests recent decline from Jun's peak at 1.1412 would head to next daily chart objective at 1.1182, however, loss of downward momentum should limit weakness to 1.1150/55 and risk has increased for a correction to take place ahead of Fed chief J. Powell's 2-day testimony before the Congress starting tomorrow.

Only a daily close above 1.1234 signals temporary low is made and risks stronger retracement twd 1.1269 but 1.1287/91 should cap upside.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
UK BRC retail sales, Australia NAB business conditions, business confidence, Swiss unemployment rate, Italy retail sales.
Canada housing starts, building permits, U.S. business optimism, redbook retail sales and JOLTS job openings.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1203
Although yesterday's resumption of recent decline to a near 3-week low at 1.1194 suggests early correction from May's 22-month bottom at 1.1108 has ended at 1.1412 (Jun high), subsequent recovery to 1.1214 would bring consolidation before another fall, loss of downward momentum would keep price well above 1.1108.

A daily close above 1.1234 (dovish comments by Fed's J. Powell later today perhaps !) signals temporary low is made and risks stronger retracemnent to 1.1265/70, then 1.1295.

On the data front, we have France's industrial production and then Italy's industrial output.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Jul 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 108.95
Dollar's rally to 108.63 last Friday on robust U.S. NFP data, then to 108.97 yesterday and intra-day break of this resistance suggests upmove from June's 5-1/2 month trough at 106.79 has once again resumed and consolidation with upside bias is retained and above 108.63 would extend to 109.02/10, then 109.30 before prospect of a correction due to loss of momentum.

On the downside, only below 107.54 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger weakness to 107.25, then 107.06/10.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
France industrial output, Italy industrial output, UK GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, trade balance.
U.S. mortgage applications, wholesale inventories and Canada BoC rate decision.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1251
Despite euro's resumption of recent decline from Jun's 3-month peak of 1.1412 to a near 3-week trough of 1.1194 on Tue, yesterday's rally to 1.1263 in New York due to usd's broad-based selloff following dovish Fed chair J. Powell's testimony suggests said fall has made a low and stronger retracement of this move to 1.1321/31 is envisaged after consolidation.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1208 signals correction is over and risks weakness towards daily chart objective at 1.1182 later.

On the data front, Germany will kick off with final CPI, HICP followed by France's CPI. ECB board member will give a lecture at the SAFE Poilicy Center in Frankfurt at 10:15GMT. Pat attention to release of minutes of ECB's June meeting at 11:30GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Jul 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 108.07
Despite the greenback's resumption of upmove from June's 5-1/2 month trough at 106.79 to a 1-month peak at 108.99 in Asia yesterday, subsequent selloff in New York session to 107.86 today on Federal Reserve Chair Powell's dovish remarks to Congress suggests a temporary top has been made and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 107.50/54, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price above 107.21.

On the upside, only above 108.36 would indicate said pullback has ended instead and risk gain to 108.63, then 108.99 early next week.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Germany CPI, HICP, France CPI, Canada new housing price index, U.S. weekly earnings, CPI, core CPI and Federal budget.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1260
Although euro's rally from Wednesday's near 3-week trough at 1.1194 to 1.1285 yesterday suggests recent decline from 1.1412 (June's top) has made a low, subsequent retreat due to broad-based USD's rebound following upbeat U.S. inflation data and rising treasury yields suggests sideways swings are in store, as long as 1.1208 holds, further headway to 1.1311/21 is envisaged.

Only a daily close below 1.1208 indicates correction over, then price will be en route to 1.1182 and 1.1108 next week.

On the economic data front, we have Germany's wholesale price index and then EU's industrial production.