AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Jul 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 108.27
Although the greenback has staged a recovery after yesterday's resumption of Wednesday's decline to 107.86 on Federal Reserve Chair Powell's dovish remarks to the Congress, as 108.61 has capped upside in Asia today, downside bias is retained and below 107.86 would extend decline from 108.99 (Wednesday) to 107.50/54 before prospect of a correction due to near term loss of momentum.

On the upside, only above 108.61 would revive bullishness for a re-test of 108.99, break would yield stronger retracement of medium-term fall to 109.26/30.

Data to be released later:
Germany wholesale price index, EU industrial output, U.S. PPI, core PPI and export prices.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1271
Friday's rebound from 1.1239 suggests pullback from 1.1285 (Thursday high) has ended and the upmove from Tuesday's near 3-week trough at 1.1194 would head to 1.1311/21 after consolidation, however, loss of upward momentum is expected to cap euro below 1.1345 (previous sup, now res) and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 1.1234/39 dampens bullish bias on the single currency and may risk stronger retracement of said upmove towards 1.1208 before prospect of recovery.

Data to be released today:
Japan market holiday, UK Rightmove house prices, China retail sales, industrial production, GDP, Swiss PPI and U.S. NY manufacturing index on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Jul 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 107.94
Despite the greenback's resumption of upmove from June's 5-1/2 month trough at 106.79 to a 1-month peak at 108.99 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 107.86 Thursday on Federal Reserve Chair Powell's dovish remarks to Congress, then to 107.81 today suggests a temporary top has been made and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 107.50/54, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price above 107.21.

On the upside, only above 108.36 would indicate said pullback has ended instead and risk gain to 108.63, then 108.99 early next week.

U.S. economic caldendar is pretty thin today with New York Empire State mfg index for Jul, street forecast is 0.5 bs previous reading at -8.6. We have Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Williams speaking in NY before the "LIBOR Transition Briefing: The Transition to Alternative Reference Rates" organized by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) at 12:50 GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1256
Although last week's rally from 1.1194 to 1.1285 (Thursday) signals recent decline has made a temporary low there, subsequent retreat to 1.1239 on Friday, then rebound to 1.1284 in Europe yesterday and weakness to 1.1254 in New York after upbeat U.S. data indicates further choppy sideways swings may continue before said upmove heads to 1.1311/21.

Only a daily close below 1.1239 risks weakness to 1.1208/12 and possibly re-test of 1.1194.

On the data front, Italy will kick off with trade balance, the Germany's ZEW eco. sentiment n current conditions, Italy's final CPI and followed by EU's trade balance n ZEW eco. sentiment. ECB member Villrroy will speak at financial conference in Paris at 07:00GMT where Fed chief J. Powell will also speak later at 17:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1256
Although last week's rally from 1.1194 to 1.1285 (Thursday) signals recent decline has made a temporary low there, subsequent retreat to 1.1239 on Friday, then rebound to 1.1284 in Europe yesterday and weakness to 1.1254 in New York after upbeat U.S. data indicates further choppy sideways swings may continue before said upmove heads to 1.1311/21.

Only a daily close below 1.1239 risks weakness to 1.1208/12 and possibly re-test of 1.1194.

Data to be released today:
Australia leading index, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, UK DCLG house price index, CPI, RPI, PPI output, PPI input, EU CPI, core CPI, construction output.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, housing starts, building permits, Fed's Beige Book and Canada CPI, core CPI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Jul 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 108.24
Despite dollar's fall from last Wednesday's 5-week peak at 108.99 to 107.81 on Friday, subsequent rebound and yesterday's rally to 108.37 (New York) on upbeat U.S. retail sales suggests temporary bottom made, intra-day retreat would bring range trading before price head back towards 108.99 again.

On the downside, only below 108.00 would risk weakness towards 107.81, then 107.71.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data starting with MBA mortgage applications, building permits, housing starts n later Fed's beige book at 18:00GMT. Kansas City President George will be speaking on economic outlook at a symposium in K.C. at 17:30GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1234
Although euro's decline from last week's high at 1.1285 to 1.1201 (Europe) yesterday's suggests early correction from July's low at 1.1194 has ended there, subsequent bounce to 1.1233 due to usd's broad-based weakness caused by falling U.S. yields, then intra-day break of said Wednesday's high in Asia suggests choppy trading above 1.1194 would continue.

Above 1.1254 would yield another rise towards 1.1285 whilst below 1.1201 would re-test 1.1194, then 1.1182, however, loss of downward momentum should keep euro above 1.1150.

There is no eco. data from the euro area counties, however, today is the second of the 2-day meeting of the G7 FinMIns n central bank Governors in Chantilly, France where ECB Preisent Draghi and board member Coeure will particpate in the meeting.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1260
Despite euro's intra-day rebound from 1.1206 on Thursday and then jump to 1.1280 after dovish comments by New York Fed's Williams, intra-day brief drop from 1.1281 to 1.1241 following official statement by New York Fed on Williams' comments suggests further price gyrations inside recent 1.1285-1.1201 broad range may continue.

Below 1.1241 would pressure price back towards 1.1201 but below July's 1.1194 bottom needed to extend recent decline towards projected downside target at 1.1150 next week whilst above 1.1285 would yield stronger correction to 1.1311/21.

Data to be released on Friday :
Japan national CPI, core national CPI.
Germany PPI, EU current account, UK PSNB, PSNCR.
Canada retail sales and U.S. Michigan consumer sentiment.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Jul 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 107.68
Despite dollar's resumption of recent to a 3-week low at 107.22 in NY on Thu due to Fed Williams' dovish comments, intra-day jump on New York Fed statement suggests temporary low has possibly been made and above 107.81 would yield stronger retracement towards 108.15, then 108.37 later.

On the downside, only below 107.22 would risk weakness towards 107.06 but 106.79 (June's low) should remain intact.

The only economic data coming out from the U.S. is University of Michigan consumer confidence, however, so pay attention to speeches by St. Louis Fed's President Bullard at 15:05GMT, then Boston Fed President's Rosengren at 20:30GMT, he will also be joined by BOJ Gov. Kuroda.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1218
Despite euro's 1-week long daily choppy trading from July's 1.1194 low to 1.1285, Friday's intra-day sharp fall from 1.1281 (AUS) to 1.1204 in New York due to renewed usd's strength suggests re-test of said sup would be seen after consolidation, break there would extend decline from June's 1.1412 peak to 1.1182, loss of momentum is likely to keep price above projected sup at 1.1150.

On the upside, only above 1.1285 'prolongs' broad sideways swings and risks stronger correction of said fall to 1.1311/21 before prospect of retreat later this week.

No eco. data is due out from the euro area countries today but we have Germany's Bundesbank monthly report scheduled to be released at 10:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Jul 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 107.85
Despite dollar's resumption of decline from July's 108.99 high to a 3-week trough at 107.22 on Friday due to dovish comments from Fed Williams, subsequent rally to 108.06 in Asia today suggests temporary low is in place and consolidation upside bias remains for gain towards 108.32/37.

On the downside, only below 107.60 would risk weakness towards 107.35/40, then re-test of 107.22.

Data to be released later today:
U.S. Chicago national activity index, and Canada wholesale sales on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1204
Despite moving narrowly in lackluster Monday session, intra-day weakness on broad-based usd's strength suggests re-test of July's 1.1194 low would be forthcoming soon, below would extend decline from June's high at 1.1412 towards projected target at 1.1150.

On the upside, only above 1.1239/44 'prolongs' choppy trading above 1.1194 and may risk another rise to 1.1281/85.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
UK CBI trends order, U.S. redbook, home price, existing home sales, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, and EU consumer confidence.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Jul 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 108.13
Although dollar's rise from last Thursday's 3-week trough at 107.22 to 108.19 today suggests recent decline from July's 5-week peak at 108.99 has made a temporary low and consolidation with upside bias remains, overbought condition should cap price below said res and yield retreat.

On the downside, below 107.71/78 would yield weakness towards 107.54, then possibly re-test of 107.22 later.

Eco. calendar in the euro area countries is very thin on Tuesday with EU's consumer confidence for July being the only data due out later in the day at 14:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1148
Yesterday's selloff to a 2-month low at 1.1146 (New York) after 2-week long daily sideways swings suggests euro would re-test 2019 22-month bottom at 1.1108 (May) after consolidation, a break there would send price heading towards next projected downside target at 1.1054 (dovish ECB on Thursday perhaps).

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1194 (previous sup, now res) signals temporary low is in place and risks stronger retracement towards 1.1225.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
New Zealand import, trade balance, exports, manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Japan Nikkei manufacturing PMI.
France business climate, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Swiss ZEW survey expectation, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, UK BBA mortgage approvals.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, new home sales.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Jul 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 108.07
Dollar's rally from last Thursday's 3-week low at 107.22 to 108.29 on Tue suggests decline from July's 1-month peak at 108.99 has made a temporary low and as price has rebounded after yesterday's pullback to 107.94 (New York), upside bias is retained for gain to 108.75 but 108.99 should remain intact.

On the downside, only below 107.71/78 may risk weakness towards 107.50/54.

U.S. will later release weekly jobless claims, durable goods order, wholesale inventories and finally Kansas City manufacturing index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1149
Despite euro's brief break of previous 2019 low at 1.1108 (May) to a 2-year trough of 1.1102 after ECB's dovish hold, subsequent brief jump to 1.1187 due to active short covering in euro following ECB Draghi's comments in post-ECB press conference and then retreat to 1.1127 in New York afternoon suggests range trading is in store today, as long as 1.1187 holds, downside bias remains, below 1.1100/02 needed to extend downtrend towards projected target at 1.1054 next week.

Only a daily close above 1.1187 confirms temporary bottom is in place and would yield stronger correction to 1.1225 and possibly towards 1.1285 later.

Ahead of release of key U.S. GDP and PCE data, Germany will release import and export prices, then France's consumer confidence and producer prices and Italy's business and consumer confidence.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Jul 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 108.66
Dollar's rally above Tuesday's 108.29 high (now sup) to 108.75 in New York yesterday on rising U.S. yields suggests re-test of July's 1-month top at 108.99 would be seen after consolidation, break would extend upmove from June's 5-1/2 month trough at 106.79 towards 109.59 later.

On the downside, only a daily close below 108.29 would risk weakness towards 107.94, then 107.78.

Data to be released on Friday :
France consumer confidence, producer prices, Italy MFG business confidence, consumer confidence.
U.S. GDP, PCE, and Canada budget balance.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1132
Although euro's weakness to 1.1113 in New York on Fri due to renewed usd's strength following upbeat U.S. data suggests early correction from Thursday's 25-month trough at 1.1102 has ended the same day at 1.1187, intra-day yen-led recovery in Asia would bring further choppy sideways swings before prospect of resumption of downtrend towards projected downside target at 1.1054.

Only a daily close above 1.1187 signals temporary low has been made instead, then risk would shift to the upside for stronger retracement towards 1.1225.

On the data front, economic calendar is very thin with Italy's PPI being the only data due out at 08:00GMT, therefore, fund flows will have great impact on intra-day price swings during European morning trading.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Jul 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 108.65
Dollar's resumption of recent upmove from July's 3-week trough at 107.22 to 108.83 in New York on Friday suggests early correction from July's 1-month high at 108.99 has ended, and as price has rebounded after initial retreat to 108.43 in Asia today, upside bias remains, above 108.99 would extend rise from 106.79 (June's low) to 109.20/30 but 109.59 should hold.

On the downside, only below 108.29 would indicate temporary top made, risk weakness towards 107.94/98.

Data to be out later:
UK nationwide house price, Italy PPI, and U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1072
Although euro's rally from yesterday's fresh 2-year trough at 1.1028 (Europe) to 1.1195 in New York led by selloff in usd/yen suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low and choppy sideways trading is in store ahead of release of key U.S. jobs report, as long as 1.1102/08 (previous sup area, now res) holds, downside bias remains but only below 1.1100 needed to extend weakness towards 1.0975.

A daily close above 1.1108 would risk stronger correction to 1.1130/35, then possibly towards 1.1162 early next week.

The euro area counties will release a slew of eco. data starting with Italy's industrial output, retail sales, then EU's PPI and retail sales.