AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Sept 2018 10:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 113.35
The greenback's rise yesterday above June's 6-month peak at 113.17 on dollar's broad-based strength to 113.47 in New York, then higher to a fresh near 9-month peak at 113.64 in Asia suggests medium-term uptrend remains in progress and subsequent retreat would yield minor consolidation before prospect of another rise.
However, over bought condition would keep price below 113.90/00, yield correction early next week.

On the downside, only below 112.90 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 112.56 before prospect of a rebound.

Data out later on Friday :
UK GfK consumer confidence, GDP, current account, Germany import price index, unemployment change, unemployment rate, France consumer spending, CPI, producer prices, Swiss KOF indicator, Italy CPI, EU HICP, Canada GDP, producer prices, budget balance.
U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan sentiment.

http://www.acetraderfx.com/

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Oct 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1576
Yesterday's resumption of decline from last Monday's 3-1/2 month peak of 1.1815 to a 2-1/2 week low at 1.1564 suggests marginal weakness would be seen after consolidation, however, loss of downward momentum should keep price above key sup at 1.1526 (September's bottom) and bring a much-needed correction later.

On the upside, a daily close above 1.1629 signals temporary low is made and yield stronger gain to 1.1651, however, reckon 1.1685 would cap upside.

The euro countries' eco. calendar is pretty light with EU PPI being the only data due out. However, we have ECB Galhau speaking in Paris at 14:30GMT.
There is EU Eco. and Financial Affairs Council meeting (ECOFIN) today which starts at 09:00GMT and ECB VP de Guindos will participate.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Oct 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Oct 2018 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1547
Despite yesterday's initial selloff to a 6-week trough of 1.1505 due to continued market concerns on Italian budget deficit, subsequent rebound to 1.1570 in New York on short covering suggests range trading is in store before recent decline from September's 3-1/2 month peak at 1.1815 heads to 1.1475/80, loss of momentum is expected to keep price above 1.1452.

Only a daily close above 1.1600 signals temp. low is made, then risk would shift to the upside for stronger retracement to 1.2623/28, then 1.1651.
Offers are tipped at 1.1570/80 with stops above 1.1600.
Bids are noted at 1.1525-15 with stops below 1.1500.

Today is PMI day in the euro zone, Italy wlll lick off with Marlit services PMI, then the same from France and Germany, then EU retail sales. Markets in Germany are on holiday.
We have ECB's Mersch speaking in Riga at 06:20GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Oct 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Oct 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 113.89
The greenback's rise above last Friday's high at 113.67 to a fresh 10-1/2-month peak at 114.06 on Monday on dollar's broad-based strength suggests medium-term uptrend remains in progress and further gain towards 114.20/25 would be seen after consolidation.
However, over bought condition would keep price below 114.50/53, yield correction later this week.

On the downside, only below 112.90 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 112.56 before prospect of a rebound.

Data due out later on Wednesday :
Germany market holiday, Markit services PMI, Italy Markit services PMI, France Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, retail sales.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, ADP employment change, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Oct 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1472
Although euro jumped in Asian morning from 1.1536 to 1.1594 on Italian budget cut news yesterday, subsequent retreat in Europe on broad-based euro selling and then selloff to a fresh 6-week low of 1.1465 on usd's rally in New York suggests recent down trend would head to 1.1420, oversold condition should prevent steep fall.

On the upside, only above 1.1536 indicates temp. low is made and may risk stronger retracement towards 1.1594 before another fall.

Data due to release later on Thursday:
U.S. initial jobless claims, durable goods, and Canada Ivey PMI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Oct 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Oct 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 114.35
The greenback's rise above Monday's 10-1/2 month peak at 114.06 to 114.55 in Australia today on dollar's broad-based strength suggests medium-term uptrend remains in progress and further gain towards 114.70/74 would be seen after consolidation, however, over bought condition would keep price below 114.90/00, yield correction later this week.

On the downside, only below 112.90 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 112.56 before prospect of a rebound.

Ahead of Friday's key U.S. payrolls data, we have today weekly jobless claims, factory orders, durable goods. Also we have Fed Gov. Quarles speaking at 13:15GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Oct 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1510
Despite extending recent decline to a fresh 6-week trough of 1.1464 initially in Asia yesterday, intra-day cable-led rebound in European morning, then subsequent rally to 1.1543 in New York morning suggests temporary low has been made and choppy sideways swings with upside bias is seen ahead of release of key U.S. jobs data.

As long as 1.1480/90 holds, stronger retracement to 1.1570 is envisaged, however, reckon res at 1.1594 should cap present rebound.
Below 1.1480 would yield marginal weakness, however, 'loss of downward momentum' would limit downside to 1.1420/30 today.

Ahead of U.S. payrolls data, euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data during European morning, pls refer to our EI section for details.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Oct 05: Daily Recommendations on Major - USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Oct 2018 10:00 GMT

USD/JPY - 113.81
Despite The greenback's rise above Monday's 10-1/2 month peak at 114.06 to 114.55 yesterday on dollar's broad-based strength, subsequent selloff to 113.63 the same day on fall in U.S. equities suggests medium-term uptrend has made a temporary top there and choppy trading with mild downside bias would be seen, however, 113.30/32 should remain intact and yield rebound.

On the upside, only above 114.55 would revive bullishness for gain towards 114.70/75, however, 115.00 should hold ahead of U.S. jobs report and yield retreat.
Data to release later on Friday:

Germany industrial orders, producer prices, France current account, trade balance, imports, exports, Swiss CPI, UK Halifax house prices, Italy retail sales.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, trade balance, and Canada employment change, unemployment rate, trade balance, exports, imports.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Oct 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1525
Despite intra-day wild swings following release of downbeat U.S. jobs report, euro's brief jump to 1.1550 in New York morning suggests recent decline from 1.1815 (September's high) has made a temporary low at last Thursday's 6-week trough at 1.1464 and upside bias remains for further gain after consolidation.
However, reckon previous res at 1.1594 should cap present rise.

On the downside, only a firm break of 1.1484 (New York low) signals correction is over and yields one more fall to 1.1430/40 before prospect of a stronger retracement.

On the eco. dat front, Germany will kick off with industrial production for Aug n then followed by EU's Sentix investor confidence index. ECB Board member Nowotny will be speaking at an event in Vienna at 16:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Oct 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Oct 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 113.74
Although dlr's rebound from Friday's post-NFP low at 113.56 suggests first leg of correction from last Thursday's near 11-month peak at 114.55 has ended, as 113.94 (Asia) has capped intra-day recovery, consolidation with downside bias is retained for stronger retracement to 113.32, loss of momentum should keep price above 113.17.

A daily close above 114.09 would signal pullback is over and would yield another rise back towards 114.55.

Data due out later today:
Swiss unemployment rate, Germany industrial output, EU sentix index, Canada and U.S. market holiday on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Oct 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1490
Despite euro's intra-day selloff in European morning due to active selling of euro on lingering Italian budget deficit concerns and then brief break of last week's 1.1464 low to a 7-week trough of 1.1460, lack of follow-through selling and subsequent bounce to 1.1499 in holiday-thinned North American session suggests temp. low is possibly made, above 1.1500/10 would bring stronger retracement towards 1.1550 before retreat.

Only below 1.1460 would extend marginal weakness, however, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.1410/15 today.

Data due out later on Tuesday :
UK BRC retail sales, Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account.
Canada housing starts, and U.S. NFIB business optimism.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Oct 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Oct 2018 10:00 GMT


USD/JPY - 113.19
Although the greenback has staged a recovery after yesterday's selloff to as low as 112.83 and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals recent upmove has made a temporary top at last Thursday's near 11-month peak at 114.55, downside bias is retained and below 112.83 would yield stronger retracement of medium-term rise towards 112.56/60.

On the upside, only above 113.69 (50% r) would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and turn outlook bullish for stronger gain towards 114.09/10.

On the data front, no important data is due out today except NFIB Nusiness Optimism index for small business, however, we have Dallas Fed President Kaplan speaking at 11:30GMT, Chicago Fed President Evans at 14:00GMT and then Philly Fed President Harker at 17:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Oct 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Oct 2018 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1507
Despite yesterday's resumption of recent erratic decline from August's peak at 1.1815 to a fresh 7-week trough of 1.1432 ahead of New York open, subsequent rally to 1.1503 due to broad-based usd's weakness triggered by sharp retreat in U.S. Treasury yields suggests temporary low has been made and consolidation with upside bias is seen for stronger retracement towrds 1.1550 before prospect of another fall later this week.

On the downside, a firm break below 1.1460/64 sup would be the 1st signal correction is over, then risk is seen for one more fall to 1.1410/15 before correction occurs.

Eco. calendar in the euro area countries is pretty light today, France will release indusrial production and then Italy's inustrial output. ECB Board member Mersh will speak at 08:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Oct 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Oct 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 113.09
Although the greenback has staged a recovery after Monday's selloff to as low as 112.83 and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals recent upmove has made a temporary top at last Thursday's near 11-month peak at 114.55, downside bias is retained and below 112.83 would yield stronger retracement of medium-term rise towards 112.56/60.

On the upside, only above 113.69 (50% r) would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and turn outlook bullish for stronger gain towards 114.09/10.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
France industrial output, Italy industrial output, UK GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance, U.S. PPI, core PPI, redbook, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales and Canada building permits.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Oct 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1538
Yesterday's anticipated rise to 1.1545 confirms euro's early decline from September's 3-1/2 month peak at 1.1815 has made a temporary low at Tuesday's fresh 7-week trough at 1.1432 and consolidation with upside bias remains for further headway towards 1.1594 res before prospect of retreat due to near term overbought condition.

Only a daily close below 1.1480 signals said correction has ended, then risk is seen for weakness to 1.1460/64, then re-test of 1.1432 next week.

The G20 FinMins n cenbank governors are in Bali, Indonesia for a 2-day meeting, keep an eye out on comments by G20 officials.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Oct 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Oct 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 112.27
Although price has recovered after intra-day resumption of decline from last week's near 11-month peak at 114.55 to 111.97 in Asia and minor consolidation would be seen ahead of U.S. inflation release in New York, reckon 112.83 (previous support, now resistance) would cap upside and yield another fall later, below 111.97 would extend to 111.66/70 before prospect of a correction due to loss of momentum.

On the upside, only above 112.83 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 113.39 before prospect of retreat.

Data to be released on Thursday :
UK RICS houseing price balance, Japan domestic CGPI, France CPI, U.S. initial jobless claims, CPI, core CPI, real weekly earnings, and Canada new housing price index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Oct 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1597
As euro has risen again in Asia today after intra-day brief but strong retreat from Thursday's 9-day high of 1.1599 to 1.1546 in New York, suggesting 'erratic' upmove from Tuesday's fresh 7-week trough at 1.1432 would head to 1.1629 after consolidation, loss of upward momentum is likely to cap price below 1.1651 today.

On the downside, a firm break of 1.1546 would be the 1st signal first leg of correction from 1.1432 over and risks stronger retracement to 1.1515 but 1.1480 should remain intact.

On the data front, Germany will release final CPI n HICP, the EU's industrial production. G20 FinMin and EU cenbank governors are attending the 2-day IMF World Forum in Bali.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Oct 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1552
Friday's decline from 1.1610 to 1.1535 due to renewed market concerns of Italy's budget deficit and Brexit talks suggests corrective rise from last week's low at 1.1432 has made a top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 1.1515, however, only a daily close below 1.1480 sup would bring re-test of 1.1432 later this week.

On the upside, only above 1.1585 would suggest pullback is possibly over and risks gain towards 1.1610 but break there needed to extend said upmove towards 1.1629.

Although no eco. data is due out from the euro area countries, today is the deadline for Italy's budget, so expect fireworks if Italy sticks to its high debt to GDP budget plan.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Oct 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Oct 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.68
The greenback's intra-day break of last Thursday's 3-week trough at 111.84 signals decline from October's 11-month peak at 114.55 has once again resumed and further weakness towards 111.40/50 would be seen after consolidation, however, over sold condition would keep price above support at 111.12 and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the upside, only above 112.54 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk would increase for a much-needed retracement to 112.83 (previous support, now resistance), then 113.20/30 before down.

Data coming out later:
UK Rightmove house price, Japan industrial production, capacity utilization, Swiss producer/import price, Italy budget deadline, and U.S. New York Fed manufacturing index, retail sales, business inventories on Monday.
​

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Oct 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1585
Although yesterday's rally in Europe due to broad-based usd's weakness and then gain to session highs of 1.1606 in New York morning on downbeat U.S. retail sales suggests pullback from Fri's 10-day high at 1.1610 has ended and recent upmove from last Tuesday's 7-week trough at 1.1432 would extend marginal gain, 'loss of upward momentum' would cap euro below res at 1.1651.

On the downside, below 1.1535 (Fri low) signals correction from 1.1432 has ended and would yield weakness towards 1.1480 later this week.

Data to be released later on Tuesday:
Germany import price, ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, CPI, CPI (EU norm), trade balance, UK ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, DCLG house price index, EU trade balance.
U.S. PCE, redbook, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, JOLTS job openings, NAHB housing market index.