AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Jul 2018 5:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1691
Although euro's resumption of recent upmove to a near 4-week high of 1.1693 (New York) due to broad-based usd's weakness as easing of trade tensions had boosted risk appetite suggests marginal gain would be seen after consolidation, overbought condition should cap price below 1.1700 (August's high) and bring a much-needed minor correction later today.

Below 1.1640/50 (prev. res, now sup) anytime signals temporary top is made and yields stronger retracement to 1.1590/94.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with France's consumer confidence, then Italy's bus confidence, consumer confidence and PPI.
Pay attention to speech by ECB Chief Economist Praet which will participate in a panel on "monetary and macroprudential policy interactions" at a congress in Germany at 11:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Jul 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.12
Dollar's intra-day rise and then break of Monday's European high at 111.19 to 111.36 in Asia suggests pullback from last Friday's near 3-week peak at 111.49 has ended at 110.94 yesterday, subsequent retreat would yield consolidation before another rise and above 111.49 would extend gain towards 111.88, break, 112.15.

Below 110.92/94 would risk stronger retracement towards 110.76 but 110.50/55 would remain intact.

On the data front, the U.S. will release a slew of eco. data starting with wholesale inventories, goods trade balance, Redbook sales, CaeShiller home price, after release of these 2nd-tier data, we have Aug consumer confidence and then Richmond Fed August mfg index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Aug 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1686
Despite euro's expected resumption of recent strong upmove to a fresh 4-week high of 1.1734 in NY, subsequent retreat due to broad-based usd's rebound following upbeat U.S. consumer confidence and rising yields suggests temp. top has been made n below 1.1663 would bring stronger retracement to 1.1620/30.

Only above 1.1734 risks marginal gain twd 1.1750, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price well below key res
at 1.1791.

Data to release on Wednesday :
France consumer spending, GDP, Swiss ZEW investor sentiment, U.S. Gfk consumer sentiment, MBA mortgage applications, GDP, PCE, pending home sales, and Canada current account.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Aug 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.17
Despite dollar's retreat from yesterday's high at 111.36 to 110.96 in New York, subsequent strong rebound due to upbeat U.S. consumer confidence and rising U.S. Treasury yields suggests pullback from last Friday's 2-1/2 week peak at 111.49 has ended at 110.94 on Monday and consolidation with upside bias is seen, above 111.49 would head to 112.00. However, 112.15 resistance should hold.

Only below 110.92/94 would indicate a temporary top has been made, risk stronger retracement towards 110.76 before prospect of rebound.

On the data front, U.S. will release MBA mortgage application, Q2 prelim. GDP, core PCE (pay attention to these 2 important data, if we have upside beat, then usd will continue its Tuesday's gain) n later pending home sales.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Aug 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1704
Despite yesterday's decline to 1.1652 ahead of NY open due to renewed weakness in the Turkish lira in European morning, subsequent strong bounce to 1.1710 led by intra-day 'jump' in sterling suggests pullback from Tuesday's 4-week high at 1.1734 has ended and gain to 1.1750 may be seen after consolidation, loss of upward momentum should cap euro below key res at 1.1791 this week.

Below 1.1652 anytime would bring stronger retracement of recent rise from 1.1301 towards 1.1594.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data (please refer to EI section for details. There is a business conference in Frankfurt where many financial heavy weights will attend n Brexit is one of the topics of discussions, so pay attention for any comments made by the participants later. Also, Bundesbank President Weidmann will be delivering a speech in Athens at 17:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Aug 2018 10:00 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.68
Dollar's rally from 111.12 in Asia and subsequent break of last Friday's 111.49 high to near 4-week peak at 111.83 in New York yesterday due to rising U.S. Treasury yields suggests recent upmove from Aug's 7-week trough at 109.78 has resumed and as 111.52 (Asia) has contained intra-day pullback, bullishness is retained for gain towards 112.15, then 112.50/60 later.
However, daily resistance at 113.17 should remain intact and yield retreat later.

Only below 111.36 would indicate temporary top is made and risks stronger retracement towards 110.94/96.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data starting with weekly jobless claims, July personal spending n income and important July PCE and core PCE, all due out at 12:30GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 31 Aug 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1672
Euro's decline to 1.1642 yesterday due to continued weakness in the Turkish lira confirms recent strong upmove has made a temporary top at Tuesday's fresh 4-week high at 1.1734 and despite subsequent recovery in New York afternoon on short covering, consolidation with downside bias remains for said erratic fall to head towards 1.1594, oversold condition should keep price above 1.1555.

On the upside, only above 1.1718 would risk re-test of 1.1734, then marginal gain to next daily chart obj. at 1.1750 before correction occurs on Mon due to loss of upward momentum.

Data out later on Friday :
UK Gfk consumer sentiment, France CPI, producer prices, Italy unemployment, consumer price, CPI, GDP, EU HICP.
U.S. producer prices, Chicago PMI, Michigan Consumer sentiment index, and Canada budget balance.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Sept 2018 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1592
Friday's expected resumption of decline from Tuesday's fresh 4-week peak of 1.1734 to a 1-week trough of 1.1585 as renewed global trade tensions had supported the greenback in New York suggests said move to retrace recent upmove from 1.1301 (August low) would head to daily downside objective at 1.1560/70, oversold condition should keep price above sup at 1.1530 today.

On the upside, only above 1.1642 signals 1st leg of retracement is over and may risk stronger gain to 1.1680/90 b4 prospect of another fall later this week.

Data out on Monday:
New Zealand terms of trade, import, export, Japan Nikkei manufacturing PMI, business capex, Australia retail sales, business inventories, China Caixin manufacturing PMI.
Swiss manufacturing PMI, retails sales, Italy Markit Manufacturing PMI, France Markit Manufacturing PMI, Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI, EU Markit Manufacturing PMI, and UK Markit Manufacturing PMI.
U.S. and Canada markets are closed for holiday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Sept 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1610
Although yesterday's recovery to 1.1628 following decline last week from 1.1734 to 1.1585 (Friday) suggests said move has made a minor low and initial consolidation is in store, outlook remains bearish for further fall, however, near term loss of momentum should keep price above sup at 1.1530 and bring rebound.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1642 (previous sup, now res) may risk stronger retracement to 1.1680/90 before prospect of another leg of decline later this week.

The eco. calendar is pretty thin today with Jul PPI being the only release from the EU. ECB board member Nowotny will speak at an exhibition opening in Vienna later today at 16:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Sept 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.46
The greenback's intra-day rally on dollar's broad-based strength suggests the pullback from last Wednesday's high at 111.83 has ended at 110.69 last Friday and consolidation with upside bias remains for upmove from August's 4-month trough at 109.78 to resume and yield re-test of said resistance, break would extend towards 112.15/20 later before prospect of retreat later this week.

On the downside, only below 110.85 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk would increase for a re-test of 110.69, break yields retracement towards 110.32.

Data out later on Tuesday :
Swiss CPI, UK BRC retail sales, Markit construction PMI, EU producer prices.
Canada Markit Manufacturing PMI, and U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Sept 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1585
Despite yesterday's anticipated resumption of decline from last Tuesday's fresh 4-week peak of 1.1734 to an 11-day low of 1.1530 in New York, subsequent cable-led rebound due to short covering suggests temporary low is possibly made and range trading with upside bias is in store, above 1.1600 would bring stronger gain but reckon 1.1642 (previous up, now res) may hold on 1st testing.

Only below 1.1530 risks marginal weakness, however, 'loss of momentum' should limit weakness to 1.1495/00 and bring strong rebound ahead of Friday's key U.S. jobs report.

Today is services PMI day in the euro area countries with Italy starting off with Markit services PMI for August, then the same from France, Germany followed by the EU's retail sales. ECB Board member Praet will speak at Eurofi Financial Forum in Vienna at 08:30GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Sept 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.52
The greenback's intra-day rally on dollar's broad-based strength suggests the pullback from last Wednesday's high at 111.83 has ended at 110.69 last Friday and consolidation with upside bias remains for upmove from August's 4-month trough at 109.78 to resume and yield re-test of said resistance, break would extend towards 112.15/20 later before prospect of retreat later this week.

On the downside, only below 110.85 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk would increase for a re-test of 110.69, break yields retracement towards 110.32.

Data out later on Wednesday :
Italy Markit services PMI, France Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, retail sales, UK Markit services PMI.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, trade balance, goods trade balance, redbook, ISM New York index, Canada trade balance, import, export, labor productivity rate.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Sept 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1643
Euro's anticipated rebound yesterday to 1.1640 (New York), then intra-day gain to 1.1659 due to renewed usd's weakness suggests early correction from August's 1.1734 peak has ended at 1.1530 (Tuesday) and consolidation with upside bias remains for further headway towards 1.1690, near term o/bot condition should cap price well below 1.1734.

On the downside, only below 1.1600/10 prolongs choppy sideways swings, risks weakness to 1.1560/70 but 1.1530 should remain intact.

Data to be released later on Thursday :
Swiss GDP, Germany industrial orders, U.S. ADP employment change, initial jobless claims, labor costs, productivity, Markit services PMI, durable goods, ISM non- manufacturing PMI, factory orders.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Sept 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1620
Although yesterday's initial marginal gain to 1.1659 at Asian open signals euro's early correction from August's peak at 1.1734 has ended at 1.1530 (Tuesay), subsequent choppy swings in New York session suggest range trading is in store before prospect of further headway towards 1.1690.

On the downside, only below 1.1585 (upbeat U.S. NFP perhaps) would risk stronger retreat but reckon 1.1530 should remain intact and yield further volatile trading.

Ahead of key U.S. jobs report, the euro area countries will release Germany's industrial output, import, exports and current account, then similar trade data from France, Italy's retail sales and EU's GDP. Eurogroup wil meet today and Euro FinMins will hold a press conference at 10:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Sept 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 110.69
Dollar's intra-day selloff yesterday on downbeat U.S. ADP data together with increase trade tensions and break of previous support at 110.69 to 110.53, then lower to 110.38 today suggests decline from last week's high at 111.83 to retrace upmove from August's trough at 109.78 has resumed and further weakness towards 110.20 would be seen but said low should remain intact ahead of today's NFP release.

On the upside, only above 110.94 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk would increase for a stronger retracement towards 111.17/20.

Data to be released later:
Swiss unemployment rate, Germany industrial output, imports ,exports, trade balance, current account, France exports, imports, trade balance, industrial output, current account, UK, Halifax house prices, RICS housing price balance, Italy retail sales, EU GDP.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, and Canada employment change, unemployment rate, Ivey PMI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Sept 2018 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1555
Friday's intra-day selloff from 1.1649 (Europe) to as low as 1.1551 in NY due to renewed usd's broad-based rally after robust U.S. jobs data suggests early correction from 1.1530 (Tuesday) has ended at 1.1659 and recent decline would head towards 1.1490/95 after consolidation, however, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.1466.

On the upside, only above 1.1606 signals low is made and may risk another rise back towards 1.1649 later.

The euro area eco. calendar is very thin today with the EU's Sentix investor confidence for September at 08:30GMT being the only data due out.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Sept 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1591
Yesterday's rebound from a fresh 2-week low of 1.1526 (Europe) and then intra-day 'sterling-led' rally to 1.1616 in New York morning suggests euro's recent decline from August's 1.1734 peak has made a temp. low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 1.1649/59 res, break there would encourage for subsequent headway towards 1.1690.

Only below 1.1564 dampens present bullish scenario on euro, however, reckon 1.1526/30 sup would remain intact.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with France's non-farm payrolls, Germany's ZEW eco. sentiment and current conditions and EU's ZEW eco. sentiment.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Sept 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.52
Despite dollar's initial drop to 110.38 on Friday on increase in U.S.-China trade tensions, subsequent rally to 111.25 on robust U.S. jobs report, then to 111.55 today suggests recent decline from 111.83 to retrace upmove from August's trough at 109.78 has made a temporary low there and choppy trading with upside bias would be seen for gain towards 111.83, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price below 112.13, yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 110.38 would revive bearishness for weakness towards 110.11 but August's low at 109.78 would hold on first testing.

Data to be released later on Tuesday :
France non-farm payrolls, UK claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, EU ZEW economic sentiment.
Canada housing starts, and U.S. redbook, JOLTS job openings, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Sept 2018 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1592
Yesterday's decline from 1.1644 (Europe) to 1.1565 due to renewed global trade tensions suggests euro's correction from Monday's 2-1/2 week low at 1.1526 has possibly ended and consolidation with downside bias is seen ahead of Thursday's ECB monetary policy meeting, below 1.1565 would pressure price towards 1.1526.

Only above 1.1644 would signal early retracement from August's 1.1734 peak has ended, then stronger gain to 1.1659 and later to 1.1680/90 would be seen.

Data released on Wednesday :
Japan business survey index, Australia consumer sentiment, Italy industrial output, EU employment change, industrial production, U.S. MBA mortgage application, PPI, beige book, and Canada capacity utilization.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Sept 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.47
Despite dollar's initial drop to 110.38 on Friday on active yen-buying, subsequent rally to 111.25 the same day, then to 111.65 today suggests recent decline from 111.83 to retrace upmove from August's trough at 109.78 has made a temporary low there and choppy trading with upside bias would be seen for gain towards 111.83.
However, near term loss of momentum would keep price below 112.13, yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 110.38 would revive bearishness for weakness towards 110.11 but August's low at 109.78 would hold on first testing.

On the data front, U.S. will later release MBA mortgage applications, Aug PPI, core PPI and last but not least Fed's beige book at 18:00GMT.
We also have 3 Fed officials delivering speeches later today, pls refer to EI page for details.