AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Oct 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 18 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1501
Yesterday's anticipated break of 1.1515 sup to 1.1496 after hawkish Fed minutes suggests euro's correction from October's 7-week trough at 1.1432 has ended at 1.1621 (Tuesday) and consolidation with downside bias remains for marginal weakness, oversold conditon is likely to keep price above 1.1460 and risk has increased for a recovery.

On the upside, only above 1.1548 signals temporary low is made and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1578/81 before down.

On the eco. data front, the only data due out is Germany's wholesale price index. Also, today is the second of the 3-day EU summit meeting. ECB Preisent Draghi and Board member Coure will participate in the Euro Summit and ECB's Nowotny will speak in Vienna at 08:00GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Oct 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 18 Oct 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 112.57
Despite the greenback's initial fall to 111.63 on Monday, subsequent rally to 112.73 today suggests decline from October's 11-month peak at 114.55 has made a temporary low there and choppy trading with mild upside bias would be seen for retracement towards 113.09/10.
However, near term loss of momentum would keep price below 113.39/40 and yield retreat early next week.

On the downside, only below 112.02 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for a re-test of 111.63, break, 111.30/40 later.

On the data front, U.S. will release weekly jobless claims, Philly Fed survey n leading indicator. St. Lousis Fed President Bullard (non-voter) will speak at 13:15GMT and Fed Gov. Quarles (voter) will speak in New York at 16:15GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Oct 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 19 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1459
Euro's anticipated decline to 1.1450 in New York yesterday due to renewed usd's strength and continued Italian budget concerns suggests re-test of October's 7-week trough at 1.1432 would be forthcoming soon, break there would extend recent decline from September's peak at 1.1815 to 1.1395/00 before prospect of correction.

On the upside, only above 1.1527 defers present bearish scenario on the single currency and may risk stronger gain to 1.1548, possibly 1.1578/81.

The only eco. data due out is EU's current account. Today is the final day of the 3-day euro summit meeting, so pay attention to intra-day comments by EU officials.
Yesterday's positive comments made by ECB's Draghi briefly lifted euro from 1.1487 to 1.1517.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Oct 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 22 Oct 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 112.73
Although dlr's intra-day cross-inspired brief break above 112.73 res confirms recent decline from October's 114.55 peak has made a temporary low last week at 111.63 (Monday) and as long as 112.35 hold, gain to 113.05/10 is likely, o/bot condition should cap price at 113.29/29 and yield decline later this week.

Below 112.35 signals said correction from 111.63 has ended and risks weakness to 11.96/00.

U.S. eco. calendar is very light today with Chicago National Activity index for September being the only data due out, so traders are expected to take cue from intra-day movement in U.S. stocks.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Oct 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 23 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1463
Despite euro's rally from Friday's 1.1433 low to 1.1535, then initial gain to 1.1550 in Europe on Monday, subsequent selloff to as low as 1.1456 on uncertainty over Italy's budget deficit suggests re-test of October's fresh 7-week trough at 1.1432 would be seen after consolidation.
However, loss of downward momentum is likely to limit weakness to 1.1395/00.

On the upside, only a move back above 1.1500 would prolong choppy sideways swings above 1.1432 and may risk another rise back to 1.1535, then 1.1550.

On the data front, the only data due out from the euro area countries in the morning is Germany's PPIn then EU;s consumer confidence later at 14:00GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Oct 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 24 Oct 2018 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1471
Yesterday's weakness to 1.1439 (Europe) suggests correction from last week's 1.1433 low (Friday) has ended at 1.1550 and subsequent rebound to 1.1494 in New York would bring sideways swings initially today before re-test of October's bottom at 1.1432, break would extend recent decline towards 1.1395.

Only above 1.1500 prolongs choppy trading above 1.1432/33 and risks another rise to 1.1578/81.

Data to be released later on Wednesday :
Japan manufacturing PMI, leading economic index, coincident index, France business climate, manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, services PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, services PMI, UK mortgage approvals.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, building permits, monthly home price, manufacturing PMI, services PMI, new home sales and Canada BoC rate decision.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Oct 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 24 Oct 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 112.55
Dollar's rebound from yesterday's trough at 111.95 in New York on rebound in U.S. equities suggests further choppy trading above Oct's 1-month low at 111.63 would continue with upside bias, however, loss of momentum should keep price below 113.29/39 and yield subsequent retreat.

On the downside, only below 111.95 would risk re-test of 111.63 but 111.09/12 should hold.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data starting with MBA mortgage applications, building permits, monthly home price, Markit mfg OMI, new home sales and then Fed's beige book.
We also have a no. of Fed officials delivering speeches in New York session (please refer to our EI section for details).
 

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Oct 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 25 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1408
Despite euro's intra-day recovery on short covering ahead of ECB's policy announcement after yesterday's break of previous Oct's 1.1432 low (now res) to a 2-month trough at 1.1389 would bring consolidation before weakness to 1.1345/50, however, below 2018 bottom at 1.1301 (dovish ECB's Draghi ?) needed to extend Medium Term downtrend to 1.1200 next week.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1432 signals temp. low is made and risk stronger retracement towards 1.1494 but 1.1550 res should cap upside.

Expect volatile swings in European morning as we have some important German data out ahead of ECB's policy announcement at 11:45GMT. Germany will release Gfk consumer confidence n then the jey German Ifo business climate and current conditions, if actual reading come in below street forecasts, then expect another round of euro bashing,however, as market is pretty short in the single currency, beware of a short-covering jump ahead of ECB Draghi's presser.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Oct 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 26 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1365
Despite euro's 'anticipated' resumption of recent decline after intra-day brief bounce to prev. sup (now res) at 1.1432 in post-ECB presser and hit a fresh 2-month trough at 1.1356, near term loss of momentum is likely to keep price above key 2018 13-month bottom at 1.1301 (August) today and risk has increased for a correction to take place next week.

On the upside, a daily close above 1.1432 confirms temporary trough has been made and price would head back towards 1.1494.

On the data front ahead of U.S. GDP, France will release PPI n consumer confidence.
ECB's Draghi will deliver a keynote speech om "Understanding inflation dynamics" at the end of a financial conference in Brussels at 14:00GMT n ECB Board member Coeure will speak in Paris at 14:15GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Oct 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 26 Oct 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 112.04
Despite dollar's selloff this week to 111.82 yesterday, subsequent rebound suggests further choppy trading above October's low at 111.63 would continue with mild upside bias and marginal gain can't be ruled out.
However, as broad-outlook remains consolidative, reckon resistance at 112.74 should remain intact and yield another fall towards said support, break would extend decline from 114.55 to 111.12/15 later.

On the upside, only above 112.74 would dampen daily bearishness and risk gain towards 112.89 but above is needed to yield stronger retracement of aforesaid fall to 113.10/20.

Data to be released later on Friday :
Germany Gfk consumer confidence, France PPI, consumer confidence, U.S. GDP, PCE and U. of Michigan consumer sentiment.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Oct 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 29 Oct 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1394
Despite euro's anticipated resumption of recent decline to a 10-week low of 1.1336 ahead of New York open on Friday, failure to re-test 2018 bottom at 1.1301 (AUG) and subsequent strong rebound to 1.1421 at New York close suggests temporary trough has been made and sideways swings are in store.

A daily close above 1.1432 res would bring stronger retracement to 1.1477 but 1.1494 should cap upside whilst below 1.1355 signals recovery over and yields weakness towards 1.1301.

The only eco. data due out from the euro area countries is Italy's PPI for September.
 

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Oct 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 30 Oct 2018 06:00 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1379
Although euro's strong rebound from Fri's 2-month trough of 1.1336 to 1.1421 suggests recent decline has made a temporary low, yesterday's sideways swings should ended with one more fall, loss of momentum would keep price above 2018 bottom at 1.1301.

Only a daily close above 1.1432 would risk stronger correction towards 1.1494 before prospect of retreat later this week.

The euro area counties will release a slew of eco. data starting with France's prel. Q3 GDP and consumer spending, Germany's jobs data, Italy's GDP, consumer confidence, EU's prel. Q3 GDP, bus n eco. climate, industrial, services and consumer confidence and lastly in New York morning, Germany's prel. CPI data.
There is also a no. of ECB offcials speaking today, please refer to EI section for details.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Oct 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 31 Oct 2018 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1341
Euro's weakness to 1.1340 in New York Tuesday, then 1.1338 (Australia) today signals early correction from last Friday's 2-month low at 1.1336 has ended on the same day and downside bias remains for decline towards 2018 13-month bottom at 1.1301 (August) after consolidatiion, however, below there needed to retain bearishness for subsequent fall to 1.1240/50.

Expect 1.1388 to cap intra-day recover and yield another fall and only above 1.1400 may risk stronger gain to 1.1416/21 but reckon 1.1432 should cap upside.

Pay attention to a slew of euro area eco. data which is expected to move price around. Germany will kick off with retail sales, then France's CPI n Italy's unemployment. We also have some ECB officials speaking during European session, plrase refer to our EI section for details.
 

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Oct 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 31 Oct 2018 10:00 GMT

USD/JPY - 113.13
Despite the greenback's selloff to a fresh 5-week trough at 111.38 last Friday, subsequent rally to 112.56 yesterday and intra-day break of this resistance suggests decline from October's near 11-month peak at 114.55 has made a temporary low there and choppy trading with upside bias would be seen for a stronger retracement.
Hhowever, 112.97 (50% r) should remain intact and yield retreat later.

On the downside, only below 112.19 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for weakness towards 111.63/65.

Data to be released later on Wednesday :
Germany retail sales, France CPI, Italy unemployment rate, Swiss ZEW investor sentiment, Italy CPI, EU HICP, unemployment rate, U.S. MBA mortgage application, ADP employment change, Chicago PMI, and Canada GDP, producer prices.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Nov 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 01 Nov 2018 05:20 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1341
Despite yesterday's anticipated weakness to a 2-1/2 month low of 1.1303 in NY due to continued usd's strength, buying interest above 2018 bottom at 1.1301 (Aug) has lifted price and intra-day 'cable-led' recovery suggests range trading is in store in European morning until New York open and gain to 1.1360 is likely, reckon 1.1388 would cap upside and yield another probe at 1.1300 level where a break there would pressure euro to 1.1340/50 later.

Only above 1.1388 would risk stronger retracement of recent decline to 1.1416/21 before prospect of retreat.

No eco. data is due out from the euro area countries n euro may be influenced by intra-day price swings in cable until New York open. If the greenback regains traction on upbeat U.S. data, then expect another probe at aforesaid key 1.1301 sup later today.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 01 Nov 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 112.84
Despite the greenback's selloff to a fresh 5-week trough at 111.38 last Friday, subsequent rally to 112.56 yesterday and intra-day break of this resistance suggests decline from October's near 11-month peak at 114.55 has made a temporary low there and choppy trading with upside bias would be seen for a stronger retracement.
However, 112.97 (50% r) should remain intact and yield retreat later.

On the downside, only below 112.19 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for weakness towards 111.63/65.

Data to be released later on Thursday :
Swiss consumer confidence, CPI, manufacturing PMI, UK Markit manufacturing PMI, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPC vote cut, BoE interest rate decision, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporate bond purchases.
Canada Markit manufacturing PMI, and U.S. initial jobless claims, labor costs, productivity, Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI.
 

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Nov 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 02 Nov 2018 05:20 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1397
Although euro's rally from Wed's 2-1/2 month trough of 1.1303 to as high as 1.1424 in New York yesterday due to usd's broad-based usd's strength suggests recent decline has made a low there and sideways swings are expected ahead of release of key U.S. jobs data, a daily close above previous res at 1.1432 needed to turn outlook bullish for stronger retracement towards 1.1494, then possibly to 1.1550 later next week.

On the downside, below 1.1350/60 signals rebound is over and risk would shift to downside for test of key 2018 13-month bottom at 1.1301.

Data to be released later on Friday :
UK BRC retail sales, Markit construction PMI, Australia PPI, retail sales, Germany import prices, Markit manufacturing PMI, France budget balance, Markit manufacturing PMI, Swiss retail sales, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, trade balance, ISM New York index, durable goods, factory orders, and Canada employment change, unemployment rate, trade balance, exports, imports.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Nov 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 05 Nov 2018 06:00 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1397
Despite euro's impressive rally from last Wednesday's 2-1/2 month trough of 1.1303 to as high as 1.1456 (Europe) on Friday, subsequent strong retreat to 1.1373 in New York after upbeat U.S. jobs data suggests 1st leg of correction has ended and choppy consolidation is in store, as long as 1.1350/60 holds, upside bias remains for another bounce towards 1.1456 but break needed to retain bullishness for further headway towards 1.1494.

Only below 1.1336 signals said correction is over, then risk would shift to downside for weakness towards key sup at 1.1301 (2018 bottom in August).

The only eco. data due out fm the euro area countries is EU's Sentix investors' index. EU FinMins are meeting in Brussels today at 14:00GMT, ECB's Coeure n Nouy will speak at Eurogroup meeting in meeting. Also, ECB VP de Guindos will soeak at a seminar at 13:00GMT. ECB's de Guindos, Praet n Smets are scheduled to speak in Brussels later today too.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Nov 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 06 Nov 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1412
Euro's anticipated rebound from 1.1355 yesterday to 1.1424 in New York due to renewed usd's weakness ahead of Tuesday's U.S. midterm election suggests pullback from Friday's 1.1456 high has ended, above 1.1424 would bring re-test of said res.
However, a break there needed to retain bullishness and extend upmove from last Wednesday's 2-1/2 month bottom towards 1.1494.

On the downside, below 1.1355 would shift risk to the downside and yield weakness towards 1.1336, however, strong sup at 1.1301/03 should remain intact.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. dat starting with Germany's industrial irders, Italy's Marleit services PMI, then the same from France, Germany n the EU together with RU's PPI. There is an EU ECOFIN meeting in Brussels and a number of ECB officials will be speaking (refer to our EI section for details).
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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74
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www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Nov 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Nov 2018 10:00 GMT

USD/JPY - 113.28
The greenback's rally to 113.34 yesterday and intra-day marginal break of this resistance and last week's peak at 113.39 signal upmove from October's 5-week trough at 111.38 to retrace decline from October's 11-month peak at 114.55 has once again resumed and extend towards 113.75/80 later but loss of momentum would keep price below 114.09 and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 112.56 would indicate said correction has ended and turn outlook bearish for stronger weakness towards 112.19/20.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
UK BRC retail sales, Germany industrial orders, Markit services PMI, Italy Markit services PMI, France Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, producer prices.
Canada building permits, and U.S. redbook, JOLTS job openings.