AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Jan 2019 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1362
Despite euro's resumption of recent decline from Jan's 11-week peak of 1.1570 to 1.1336 in New York morning, subsequent rebound suggests temporary low is possibly made and consolidation with upside bias is in store, a firm break above 1.1391 would add credence to this view and bring stronger gain to 1.1427, however, reckon res at 1.1455 should hold.

Only below 1.1336 risks marginal weakness, however, loss of downward momentum should keep price above Jan's bottom at 1.1310 and yield an overdue correction of aforesaid fall.

Expect more range trading ahead of Thursday's key ECB monetary policy announcement n ECB Draghi's press conference, eurozone eco. calendar is pretty light today with France's business climate and Italy's PPI being the only data due out.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.58
Dollar's rally from Tuesday's low at 109.15 to 109.80 in Asia today due to cross-selling in yen suggests pullback from last Friday's 2-1/2 week high at 109.88 has ended and recent upmove from January's 9-month trough of 104.79 would extend to 110.00/10 after consolidation.

On the downside, only below 109.33 would indicate temporary top made, risks re-test of 109.15, break, 109.07, then 108.70/80.

Data to be released later on Wednesday :
France business climate, Italy producer prices, UK CBI trends survey, EU consumer confidence.
Canada retail sales, and U.S. redbook, monthly home price, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, building permits, wholesale inventories, retail sales, housing starts, business inventories, new home sales, durable goods, durables ex-defence, durables ex-transport, factory orders, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1388
Euro's anticipated rebound to 1.1396 (Reuters) yesterday suggests recent decline from Jan's 11-week peak at 1.1570 has formed a temporary low at 1.1336 (Tuesday) and consolidation with upside bias remains for a stronger retarcement towards 1.1427, near term overbought condition would cap price below res at 1.1455 ahead of ECB monetary policy announcement and ECB Drgahi's press conference.

On the downside, only below 1.1351 signals correction is over and risks re-test of 1.1336, then weakness to January's bottom at 1.1310 but reckon daily sup at 1.1267/70 should remain intact.

Today is PMI day in the euro area countries, France will kick off with Markit January mfg and services PMIs, then the same from Germany, Italy will release PPI nd trade balance, then followed by EU's mfg and services PMIs.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.65
Although the greenback has retreated after yesterday's rise above last Friday's high at 109.88 to 110.00 and minor consolidation is expected for 1-2 days, as this move signals erratic rise from January's 9-month trough at 104.79 has resumed, upside bias is retained and above 110.00 would bring stronger retracement of Medium Term decline towards 110.38/40.

On the downside, only below 109.15 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger correction towards 108.69 before prospect of rebound.

Data to be released later on Thursday :
France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Italy trade balance, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, ECB interest rate decision, ECB deposit rate decision.
U.S. initial jobless claims, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, leading indicator.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1307
As yesterday's intra-day 'wild' swings in post-ECB New York session ended with euro's tanking to a near 6-week trough of 1.1290 due to safe-have usd buying on renewed U.S./China trade tension, suggesting recent decline would pressure price to 1.1260/70 after consolidation, oversold condition is expected to keep price well above 2018 16-month bottom (November) at 1.1216.

On the upside, only above 1.1355/60 signals temporary low is made and risks stronger retracement to 1.1381 but reckon 1.1411 res should cap upside and yield another fall next week.

Pay attention to release of key Germany's Ifo business climate n current conditions indexes, if both reading come out weaker than street forecasts, then expect another round of euro bashing to take place.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1413
Friday's impressive rally from 1.1298 (AUS) to as high as 1.1419 near New York close due to usd's broad-based weakness on news of an end of recent U.S. govt. shutdown suggests recent decline from Jan's 11-week peak at 1.1570 has ended earlier at 1.1290 (Thursday) and upside bias remains for gain to 1.1455 after consolidation, overbought condition should cap price below 1.1494.

On the downside, only below 1.1455/60 signals temporary top is made and risks stronger retracement to 1.1310/20 but 1.1290 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Monday:
Australia market holiday, U.S. Chicago national activity index, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.43
Dollar's intra-day fall subsequent break of previous sup at 109.40 sup to 109.27 at Asian open on active cross-buying in yen suggests recent upmove from January's 9-month trough of 104.79 has made a temporary top at last Wednesday's 3-week high of 110.00, subsequent rebound would yield consolidation before prospect of another fall to 108.60 but loss of momentum should keep price above 108.34/37.

On the upside, only above 110.00 would risk gain towards 110.30/34 but 110.46/48 may hold.

U.S. economic calendar is pretty light with Chicago Fed National Activity index and Dallas Fed mfg business index being the only data due out in New York morning but traders may react to these data if actual readings are weaker then forecast.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1427
Yesterday's resumption of upmove from last Thursday's 5-week low at 1.1290 to 1.1445 (New York) signals recent decline from Jan's 11-week peak at 1.1570 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains for marginal gain, however, 'loss of momentum' is expected to cap price below res at 1.1491 and yield retreat later today or tomorrow.

On the upside, only below 1.1380/90 indicates temporary top is in place n risks stronger retracement of aforesaid rise to 1.1340/50 before prospect of another bounce.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand imports, exports, trade balance, Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence.
Swiss trade balance imports, exports, France consumer confidence,.
U.S. redbook, CS home price, consumer confidence.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: Jan 29, 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.25
The greenback's fall to 109.17 yesterday and then lower to 109.13 in Asia today suggests decline from last week's peak at 110.00 to retrace upmove from January's 9-month trough at 104.79 has resumed and consolidation with downside bias remains for further weakness towards 108.69, however, over sold condition should keep price well above support at 108.34 and yield a much-needed correction later.

On the upside, only above 109.56/59 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger gain towards 109.80 but aforesaid top at 110.00 should remain intact.

Today is the start of the 2-day FOMC meeting, on the U.S. data front, we have Redbook sales, CaseShiller home price n consumer confidence.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Jan 2019 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1436
Yesterday's marginal gain to 1.1451 suggests euro's upmove from last Thursday's 5-week trough at 1.1290 would head to 1.1470/75 after consolidation, however, loss of upward momentum suggests res at 1.1491 would cap upside and yield retreat.

On the downside, a daily close below 1.1390 signals temporary top is made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1350/55 later.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with France's Q4 GDP, Germany's Gfk consumer confidence, import n export price, France's consumer spending, Italy's bus. n consumer confidence, then EU's bus climate, eco. sentiment. industrial, services n consumer sentiment n lastly, Germany inflation data.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 31 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1492
Yesterday's rally above 1.1451 (Wednesday's top, now sup) to a near 3-week high at 1.1502 after 'dovish' FOMC statement and Fed' chair J. Powell's comments suggests correction from January's peak at 1.1570 has ended last week at 1.1290 and gain towards 1.1550 is envisaged after consolidation, reckon 1.1570 should remain intact ahead of Friday's U.S. jobs report.

Only a daily close below 1.1451 signals temporary top has been made, then risk is seen for a stronger retracement of aforesaid rise to 1.1406/11.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Japan industrial production, construction orders, housing starts, Australia export prices, import prices, China NBS non-manufacturing PMI, NBS non-manufacturing PMI, NBS manufacturing PMI.
UK GfK consumer confidence, nationwide house price, Germany retail sales, unemployment change, unemployment rate, France CPI, Italy GDP, unemployment rate, EU GDP, Canada GDP, producer prices.
U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE, initial jobless claims, Chicago PMI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -US/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 31 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 108.68
Yesterday's selloff from 109.74 to a 12-day low at 108.82 in New York after dovish FOMC statement, then intra-day break of said sup suggests recent decline from last Wednesday's 3-week high at 110.00 remains in force and further weakness towards 108.30/40 would be seen but loss of momentum should keep price above 107.99 today.

On the upside, only above 109.07/13 would risk gain towards 109.50/54.

The U.S. will release a slew of eco. data starting with weekly jobless claims, personal spending n income, core PCE, PCE n then Chicago PMI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Feb 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1447
Despite euro's resumption of upmove from January's 5-week trough at 1.1290 to 1.1515 (Europe) yesterday, subsequent decline to 1.1435 on downbeat comments by ECB's Weidmann suggests said move has made a temporary top and choppy sideways swings are in store ahead of release of key U.S. jobs report.

As long as 1.1390 holds, one more rise to 1.1540/50 is likely but January's peak at 1.1570 should cap upside. Below 1.1390 would risk stronger retracement to 1.1340/50 but 1.1310 would remain intact.

Today is PMI day in the euro area countries, please refer to our EI section for details of EZ eco. releases.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Feb 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 108.92
Although the greenback has staged a rebound after yesterday's resumption of decline from last week's peak at 110.00 to 108.50 and minor consolidation would be seen, as this move confirms the upmove from January's 9-month trough at 104.79 has made a temporary top there, downside is retained and below 108.50 would extend marginally. However, 107.99 should hold ahead of today's U.S. jobs report release and yield correction.

On the upside, only above 109.54/59 would indicate a temporary low has been made instead and risk stronger retracement towards 109.74.

Data to be released later Friday:
Swiss consumer confidence, retail sales, CPI, manufacturing PMI, France budget balance, Markit manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, HICP, UK Markit manufacturing PMI.
Canada Markit manufacturing PMI, and U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, Markit manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing PMI, University of Michigan sentiment.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Feb 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1457
Despite Friday's rebound from 1.1434 (Asia) to 1.1489 in post-NFP New York session, subsequent softness suggests further choppy trading below Thursday's 2-1/2 week high at 1.1515 would continue with downside bias, however, reckon 1.1390/00 would contain weakness and bring another rebound.

Above 1.1489 would bring re-test of 1.1515 but 1.1540/50 should cap upside and only below 1.1390 risks stronger retracement to 1.1340/50.

Data to be released later today:
New Zealand building permits, China market holiday, Australia ANZ job ads, building permits.
UK Markit construction PMI, EU Sentix index, producer prices, Italy consumer price, CPI(EU Norm.
U.S. ISM New York index on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Feb 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.87
The greenback's rise above Friday's high at 109.57 on broad-based selling in yen confirms correction from last Wednesday's peak at 110.00 has ended at 108.50 on Friday and re-test of aforesaid resistance is forthcoming, break would extend upmove from January's 9-month trough at 104.79 towards 110.48/50 before prospect of a much-needed correction later.

On the downside, only below 109.13 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 108.50 before rebound occurs.

Following Friday's blockbuster U.S. jobs data, we have ISM New York index and factory orders later today.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Feb 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1340
Yesterday's resumption of decline from last Thursday's 2-1/2 week high at 1.1515 to 1.1324 (Europe) suggests early correction from January's 1.1290 bottom has ended there and as long as 1.1380 holds, re-test of 1.1290 would be seen later today or Monday but break needed to extend weakness towards 2018 trough at 1.1216.

Only a daily close above 1.1380 signals low is made, then risk would shift to upside for stronger gain to 1.3401, then 1.1435.

As euro has fallen this week after release of a slew of EZ eco. data, so pay attention to today's releases starting with German exports n imports, trade balance, current account, then France's industrial output and non-farm payrolls, n lastly, Italy's industrial output.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Feb 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.75
Dollar's sideways swings after Monday's rally to a 1-month high at 110.16 are expected to continue and as long as 109.43 sup holds, another rise would be seen, above said res would extend upmove from January's 9-month trough of 104.79 to 110.48 but loss of momentum should cap price below 110.82.

On the downside, only below 109.43 would risk stronger retracement towards 109.07/13, then possibly 108.73/78.

Data to be released later:
Swiss unemployment rate,Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account, France industrial output, non-farm payrolls, Italy industrial output.
Canada employment change, unemployment rate.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Feb 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1326
Euro's weakness to 1.1320 (New York) on Friday, then 1.1315 in New Zealand today suggests re-test of previous sup at 1.1290 would be seen after consolidation, a break there would extend recent fall from January's 1.1570 peak to 1.1267/70, loss of momentum should keep price above 1.1245/50.

On the upside, only above 1.1360 signals temporary low has been made and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1380/85.

Although no euro area data is due out today, the Eurogroup is meeting on Monday and ECB President Draghi will participate in this meeting. ECB VP Guindos will deliver a speech at a business school in Madrid at 08:30GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Feb 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 110.01
Despite dollar's sideways swings following retreat from last Monday's 1-month high at 110.16 to 109.56 Wednesday, intra-day rise to 110.02 (Asia) suggests upmove from January's 9-month trough of 104.79 would resume and head towards 110.48 but loss of momentum should cap price below 110.85/90.

On the downside, only below 109.56 would indicate temporary top made and risk stronger retracement towards 109.09/13.

Data out today:
Japan market holiday, Swiss CPI, UK GDP, industrial output, manufacturing, construction output, trade balance, NIESR GDP estimate, and Canada trade balance, exports, imports on Monday.