AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Dec 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

attachment.php
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 14 Dec 2018 04:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1360
Despite euro's initial gain to 1.1293 (Europe) yesterday following early decline from Mons 1.1443 high to 1.1306 (Tuesday), subsequent brief but sharp retreat to 1.1331 after mildly dovish forward guidance by ECB's Draghi suggests choppy trading with downside bias remains, below 1.1305/06 sup needed to extend said fall towards next chart obj. at 1.1267.

On the upside, only above 1.1393/00 res would revive bullish prospect of another rise to 1.1430/40.

Today is PMI day in the euro area n EZ will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI section for details.
Pay attention to EU officials' comments as today is the second day of the 2-day EU summit on EU budget n Brexit. ECB's Draghi will participate in the EC meeting in Brussels and ECB's Angeloni will speak at a financial conference in Rome at 13:30GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Dec 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

attachment.php
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 19 Dec 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1379
Although yesterday's anticipated gain to a 1-week high of 1.1402 (Europe) suggests choppy trading inside recent broad range of 1.1267-1.1443 would continue with upside bias, subsequent retreat to 1.1350 in New York would bring sideways swings before up, loss of momentum would cap price below last week's high at 1.1443 ahead of key Fed's rate decision.

On the downside, below 1.1330/37 sup signals top is made and risk would shift to the downside for weakness to 1.1300, break, 1.1270/75.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand Westpac consumer survey, current account, Australia Westpac leading index, Japan exports, imports, trade balance, all industry activity index, Germany producer prices, UK DCLG house price index, CPI, RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, EU construction output.
Canada CPI, and U.S. MBA mortgage application, current account, existing home sales, Fed interest rate decision.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Dec 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

attachment.php
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 19 Dec 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 112.36
Dollar intra-day brief break of previous Dec's 112.24 low due to renewed safe-haven yen buying suggests erratic fall from 114.21 (November) has resumed and although downside bias remains for marginal weakness in anticipation of Fed's dovish hike later today, near term loss of momentum should keep price above 111.60/70.

Only a daily close above 112.86 confirms temporary low has been made, then risk is seen for stronger retracement to 113.15/25 later.

On the data front ahead of Fed's rate decision n Fed Chair J. Powell's post-FOMC presser, U.S. will release MBA mortgage applications, current account n exiting home sales.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Dec 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

attachment.php
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 20 Dec 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1377
Although euro extended near term strong rise from last week's low at 1.1370 to a one-week high of 1.1440 yesterday, subsequent decline in post-FOMC after expected Fed's rate hike and less dovish statement suggests price would continue to 'gyrate' inside recent 1.1216-1.1472 broad range with downside bias, below 1.1300/10 needed to retain bearishness for weakness towards 1.1270 next week.

On the upside, only above 1.1440/43 res would revive bullish prospect of further gain towards key daily res at 1.1472.

Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand GDP, imports, trade balance, exports, Australia employment change, unemployment rate, Japan BoJ interest rate decision.
Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, Italy producer prices, EU current account, UK retail sales, CBI distributive trade, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPC vote cut, BoE interest rate decision, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporate bond purchases.
U.S. initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed survey, leading indicator, and Canada average weekly earnings, wholesale trade.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Dec 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Dec 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1449
Yesterday's break of daily res at 1.1472 to a 5-week high of 1.1486 confirms recent rise from Nov's 16-month trough at 1.1216 has finally resumed and despite intra-day sharp retreat to 1.1403 on usd's brief rebound due to selloff in U.S. stocks, subsequent rise back to 1.1485 signals said upmove would head to 1.1500 target 'after' choppy consolidation, however, reckon 1.1550 would remain intact.

Only a daily close below 1.1403 indicates temporary top is in place, then risk would shift to the downside for stronger retracement to 1.1365, then 1.1337.

Data to be released on Friday :
UK GfK consumer confidence, GDP, current account, PSNB, PSNCR, German GfK consumer sentiment, France business climate, consumer spending, producer prices, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence.
U.S. durable goods, durables ex-transport, durables ex-defense, GDP, PCE, personal income, personal spending, University of Michigan sentiment, Canada GDP, retail sales, and EU consumer confidence.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Dec 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

attachment.php
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 21 Dec 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.24
Although price has recovered after yesterday's selloff to a fresh 3-month trough at 110.82 on active cross-buying in jpy and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals erratic decline from October's peak at 114.55 has resumed, downside bias is retained for another fall early next week and below 110.82 would extend to 110.50/60, however, over sold condition would keep price above 110.38.

On the upside, only above 111.83 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 112.09/10.

The euro area countries will release some eco data starting with Germany's Gfk consumer confidence, import n export price, then France's eco. climate, consumer spending, final GDP n PPI n Italy's business and cosumer confidence. ECB's Vice President will deliver a speech in Mardid at 11:00GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Dec 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

attachment.php
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 24 Dec 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1378
Euro's selloff from 1.1475 (Europe) to as low as 1.1355 in New York session on Friday due to active safe & have usd and yen buying suggests recent erratic upmove has made a top at Thursday's 5-week high at 1.1486 and consolidation with downside bias is seen for weakness to 1.1330/35, oversold condition is likely to keep price above 1.1306/07 on this holiday-thinned Monday trading.

On the upside, only above 1.1400/10 signals pullback has possibly ended instead and may risk stronger gain to 1.1430/40 but 1.1486 top is expected to remain intact.

Data to be released today:
Japan market holiday and U.S. national activity index on Monday.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Dec 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

attachment.php
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 27 Dec 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1377
Euro's weakness to 1.1344 yesterday in New York due to broad-based usd's rebound in reaction to a near 5% jump on Wall Street suggests recent erratic rise from 2018 bottom at 1.1216 (November) has made a top at last Thursday's 5-week peak at 1.1486 and consolidation with downside bias is seen for stronger retracement to 1.1300/10, reckon pivotal sup at 1.1267/70 would remain intact.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1439 (Monday) signals pullback is over and risks another rise towards 1.1486 later.

No euro area eco. data is due out except EU's economic bulletin, so expect range trading to continue in European morning until NY market opens later in the day.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Dec 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

attachment.php
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Dec 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 110.90
Despite this week's resumption of recent downtrend to a fresh 4-month bottom of 110.00 in holiday-thinned Tokyo session on Tuesday, yesterday's impressive rally in New York to as high as 111.40 due to a near 5% rebound on Wall Street suggests long-awaited correction has occurred and intra-day retreat in Europe would bring choppy sideways swings before further gain, loss of momentum would cap price at 111.81/85.

On the downside, only a daily close below 110.68 signals correction has ended and risks weakness towards 110.29, then re-test of 110.00.

On the economic data front, we have EU's econmoic bulletin; Swiss investor sentiment; U.S. weekly jobless claims, building permits, monthly home price, consumer confidence and new home sales.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Dec 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Dec 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1444
Although yesterday's rally from 1.1365 to 1.1455 in New York suggests early retreat from last Thursday's 5-week high at 1.1486 has ended at 1.1344 (Wednesday), broad outlook remains consolidative and near term o/bot condition should cap price below said res level and yield retreat later today.

On the downside, below 1.1400 would be the 1st signal intra-day top is in place and yields weakness towards 1.1365 but reckon 1.1344 sup should remain intact.

Euro area countries will release a slew of eco. dats starting with Germany's import price index, then Italy's unemployment n Germany's CPI n HICP.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Dec 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

attachment.php
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 28 Dec 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 110.41
Dollar's intra-day weakness after yesterday's brief but strong rebound from 110.46 to 111.10 in New York suggests correction from Tuesday's fresh 4-month bottom at 110.00 has possibly ended and consolidation with downside bias remains for re-test of said temporary low, break there would extend recent decline towards next daily obj. at 109.78 (August trough).

On the upside, only above 111.10 prolongs choppy sideways swings and may risk another rise towards 111.40.

Data to be released on Friday :
Japan Tokyo CPI, unemployment rate, industrial production, retail sales.
Germany import price index, CPI, HICP, Swiss KOF indicator, Italy unemployment rate, UK BBA mortgage approvals.
U.S. goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, Chicago PMI, new home sales, pending home sales.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Dec 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

attachment.php
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 31 Dec 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1444
Euro's erratic rise from last week's low at 1.1344 (Wednesday) to 1.1476 on Fri suggests correction from Dec's 5-week high at 1.1486 has ended and subsequent retreat in New York session and closure of Japan's market, then many European centres for New Year's Eve holiday today would bring subdued trading.

As long as 1.1400/10 holds, upside bias remains for re-test of 1.486 where a break there would extend upmove from 2018 bottom at 1.1216 (November) towards 1.1550 'later' this week.
Only below 1.1400 prolongs volatile sideways swings and risks stronger pullback to 1.1365 but 1.1344 should remain intact.

The only eco. data due out later today in the U.S. is Dallas Fed mfg business index for Dec. Happy New Year !
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Dec 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

attachment.php
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 31 Dec 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 110.20
Friday's weakness to 110.15 suggests dollar's correction from Tuesday's fresh 4-month trough at 110.00 has ended at 1111.40, however, below said sup is needed to extend recent decline to next chart obj. at 109.78, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 109.55.

On the upside, only above 110.81/86 would prolong choppy trading above 110.00 and risk stronger gain towards 111.10 but 111.40 should remain intact.

The only eco. data due out later today in the U.S. is Dallas Fed mfg business index for Dec. Happy New Year !
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Jan 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

attachment.php
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 02 Jan 2019 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1453
Although Monday's gain to 1.1479 in holiday-thinned NY trading indicates early correction from December's 5-week high at 1.1486 has ended last week at 1.1344, intra-day retreat in Asia suggests range trading is in store and as long as 1.1422 sup holds, re-test of 1.1486, then 1.1500 is envisaged, however, loss of upward momentum should cap euro at 1.1520/25.

On the downside, a daily close below 1.1422 would 'prolong' recent sideways swings, then risk is seen for stronger retracement to 1.1365 but sup at 1.1344 should hold from here.

European markets will re-open today n Wed is PMI day in the euro area countries. Italy will kick off with Markit Dec mfg OMI, followed by the same from France, Germany and then the EU.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Jan 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

attachment.php
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 02 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.22
Dollar's intra-day fall below Monday's low at 109.57 to a fresh 7-month trough at 109.13 suggests erratic decline from 2018 peak at 114.55 (October) remains in progress and further weakness towards 109.00, then 108.85/90 would be seen.
However, over sold condition would keep price above 108.70/73 and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the upside, only a daily close above 110.00 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk would increase for a stronger retracement towards 110.40/50 before down.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
France market holiday, Italy market holiday, Swiss market holiday, Germany market holiday, Canada market holiday, and U.S. market holiday.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Jan 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

attachment.php
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 03 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1348
Despite yesterday's anticipated rise to a 7-week peak of 1.1497 ahead of Eurpean open failure to penetrate psychological 1.1500 res and subsequent selloff to as low as 1.1326 in New York, then 1.1310 in Australia today suggests recent corrective rise from 2018 bottom at 1.1216 (November) has ended.

Expect choppy trading with downside bias for further weakness to 1.1267/70 after consolidation and only above 1.1422 dampens bearishness and euro, risks stronger gain to 1.1465/75 later today or tomorrow.

No eco. data is due out from the euro area countries, so traders may take cue from European stock markets' movement.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Jan 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

attachment.php
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 04Jan 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1408
Despite yesterday's initial weakness to 1.1310 ahead of Asian open, subsequent rebound to 1.1411 in New York due to usd's broad-based weakness on renewed decline in U.S. stocks and treasury yields suggests decline from Wednesday's 7-week high at 1.1497 has made a low and choppy sideways swings are in store ahead of release of key U.S. jobs data later.

As long as 1.1440/50 holds, another fall is likely, below 1.1338 would bring test of 1.1306/10 sup but break there needed to retain bearishness for weakness towards 1.1267 next week.
Above 1.1450 would risk gain towards 1.1497/00, break would extend upmove from 1.1216 (November) towards 1.1550.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with France's CPI, Itaky's Markit services PMI, then the same from Germany, unemployment, Italy's CPI, EU's CPI, PPI and Markit services PMI.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Jan 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

attachment.php
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 04 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 107.93
Despite the greenback's 'flash crash' to a fresh 9-month trough at 104.79 in Australia on Thursday on active safe-haven jpy buying due to Apple news, subsequent strong rebound to 108.31, then 108.45 today suggests Medium Term decline from 2018 peak at 114.55 (October) has made a temporary low there and choppy trading with upside bias would be seen, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price below 108.70/71 and yield a much-needed correction early next week.

On the downside, only below 105.67 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk re-test of 104.79, break, 104.10/20 later.

Data to be released on Friday :
UK BRC shop price index, nationwide house price, Markit services PMI, France CPI (EU norm), CPI, Italy Markit services PMI, CPI, CPI (EU norm), France Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, unemployment change, unemployment rate, EU HICP, producer prices.
U.S. building permits, goods trade balance, wholesales inventories, non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, Markit services PMI, new home sales, construction spending, and Canada employment change, unemployment rate, producer prices.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Jan 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

attachment.php
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 07 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 108.13
Despite the greenback's 'flash crash' to a fresh 9-month trough at 104.79 last Thursday on active safe-haven JPY buying due to Apple news, subsequent strong rebound to 108.30, then 108.74 today suggests Medium Term decline from 2018 peak at 114.55 (October) has made a temporary low there and choppy trading with upside bias would be seen, however, near term loss of momentum would cap price below 109.00 and yield a much-needed correction.

On the downside, only below 105.67 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk re-test of 104.79, break, 104.10/20 later.

On the data front, we have Germany's industrial orders and retail sales, then EU's Sentix investor confidence index and retail sales.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Jan 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1469
Euro's intra-day rally above last Friday's 1.1420 high to 1.1484 in New York on Monday due to broad-based usd's weakness (except vs yen) signals correction from last Wed's 7-week peak at 1.1497 has ended and re-test of this res is seen after consolidaion, above 1.1500 would encourage for recent erratic rise to head towards next chart obj. at 1.1500.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1420 would 'prolong' recent daily choppy swings and risk weakness to 1.1293, then possibly towards 1.1346.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco data starting with Germany's industrial output, France's current account, trade balance, import n export price, then we have EU's business climate, eco., industrial n services sentiment index n consumer confidence index.