AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by AceTRaderForex, Feb 17, 2016.

  1. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Jan 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 08 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 108.92
    Despite the greenback's 'flash crash' to a fresh 9-month trough at 104.79 last Thursday on active safe-haven jpy buying, subsequent strong rebound to 108.30, then 109.09 today suggests Medium Term decline from 2018 peak at 114.55 (October) has made a temporary low there and choppy trading with upside bias would be seen, however, near term loss of momentum would cap price below 109.45/50 and yield a much-needed correction.

    On the downside, only below 107.52 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk stronger weakness towards 105.67 later this week.

    On the data front, U.S. will release a slew of data starting with whole inventories, Redbook sales, JOLTS job openings, durable goods order, factory orders, new home sales n construction spending later.
     
  2. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Jan 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 09 Jan 2019 06:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1456
    Although yesterday's erratic fall from 1.1485 (Asia) to 1.1422 in New York suggests further choppy trading below last Wednesday's 7-week peak at 1.1497 would continue, subsequent rebound would bring range trading.

    Below 1.1422 would yield stronger retracement of last week's rise from 1.1310 towards 1.1346 whilst above 1.1468 (European top) would risk gain back towards 1.1485 but only break of 1.1497/00 res would extend Medium Term upmove towards 1.1550 'later' this week.

    On the eco. data front, Germany will kick off with imports n exports, trade balance n current account, the France's consumer confidence, Italy's unemployment, then the same from the EU.
     
  3. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Jan 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD


    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

    Update Time: 10 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1555
    Yesterday's rally above indicated res at 1.1497/1.1500 to a 2-1/2 month high of 1.1554 in New York confirms recent erratic rise from 2018 bottom at 1.1216 (November) has once again resumed and price is en route towards next daily obj. at 1.1621 after consolidation, overbought condition should cap price at 1.1640/50.

    Only a daily close below 1.1500 signals temporary top is made and may risk stronger retracement towards 1.1440.


    On the eco. data front, France will release industrial production, then Italy's retail sales. Pay attention to release of last ECB Monetary Policy statement at 12:30GMT.
     
  4. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Jan 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 10 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT


    USD/JPY - 107.90
    Despite the greenback's rise to 109.09 on Tuesday, subsequent retreat suggests the first leg of correction from January's 9-1/2 month trough at 104.79 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 107.52, however, loss of momentum would keep price above 107.12 and yield rebound early next week.

    On the upside, only above 108.68 would indicate said pullback has ended instead and risk re-test of 109.09, break would extend towards 109.50/60.

    Data to be released on Thursday :
    UK BRC retail sales, France industrial ouput, Italy retail sales.
    Canada building permits, new housing price index, and U.S. building permits, initial jobless claims, trade balance, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, durable goods, durables ex-defense, durables ex-transport, factory orders, new home sales, construction spending.
     
  5. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Jan 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 11 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1519
    Despite yesterday's initial marginal gain above previous high to an 11-week peak of 1.1570 in Asia, subsequent stronger-than-expected decline due to broad-based profit taking in euro to a low as 1.1485 in New York afternoon following mildly hawkish comments by Fed's J. Powell suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top and intra-day rebound would yield range trading.

    Below 1.1485 would bring stronger retracement of recent rise from 1.1216 (November) towards 1.1440 whilst above 1.1545 may bring re-test of 1.1570 but break there needed to revive bullishness for resumption of upmove towards 1.1621 next week.

    Data to be released on Friday :
    Australia AIG construction index, retail sales, New Zealand building permits, Japan household spending, current account, trade balance, Eco. Watchers outlook, Eco. Watchers current.
    Italy industrial output, UK GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, goods trade balance, trade balance, NIESR GDP estimate, EU ZEW economic sentiment.
    U.S. CPI, real weekly earnings, trade balance, Federal budget.
     
  6. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Jan 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 11 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 108.29
    Despite the greenback's rise to 109.09 on Tuesday, subsequent retreat to 107.77 yesterday suggests the first leg of correction from January's 9-1/2 month trough at 104.79 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 107.52, however, loss of momentum would keep price above 107.12 and yield rebound early next week.

    On the upside, only above 108.68 would indicate said pullback has ended instead and risk re-test of 109.09, break would extend towards 109.50/60.

    T.G.I.F., U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data starting with Dec core CPI, real weekly earnings, trade budget and Federal budget. Pay attention to core CPI and weekly earnings as these are the Fed's inflation barometer, so if actual readings come in higher than forecast, usd will rise.
     
  7. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Jan 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 14 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1468
    Fri's selloff from 1.1540 (Europe) and then break of 1.1485 sup to .1458 in New York morning due to renewed usd's strength confirms recent upmove from 2018 bottom at 1.1216 (November) has made a temporary top at Thursday's 11-week high at 1.1570 and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement towards 1.1393 before prospect of rebound.

    Intra-day recovery from 1.1440 (New Zealand) would bring range trading in Asia and European morning before down and only above 1.1540 signals correction has ended.

    Eco. calendar in the euro area countries is very light with EU's industrail production being the only data due out at 10:00GMT.
     
  8. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Jan 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 14 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 108.09
    Despite the greenback's rise to 109.09 last Tuesday, subsequent retreat to 107.77 Wednesday suggests the first leg of correction from January's 9-1/2 month trough at 104.79 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 107.52, however, loss of momentum would keep price above 107.12 and yield rebound early next week.

    On the upside, only above 108.68 would indicate said pullback has ended instead and risk re-test of 109.09, break would extend towards 109.50/60.

    Data to be released later today:
    EU industrial production, and U.S. building permits, wholesales inventories, wholesale sales, durable goods, durables ex-defence, durables ex-transport, factory orders, new home sales, construction spending on Monday.
     
  9. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Jan 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 15 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1475
    Euro's initial weakness to 1.1440 (NZ) on Monday signals recent erratic rise from 2018 16-month bottom at 1.1216 (November) has made a temporary top at last Thursday's 11-week peak at 1.1570 and as long as 1.1500 holds, stronger retracement to 1.1422 is envisaged after consolidation, loss of momentum would keep price above 1.1393 sup.

    A daily close above 1.1500 would be the 1st signal said pullback has ended, then risk is seen for further gain to 1.1540/45.

    Euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data (please refer to EI section for details) but market's focus is ECB President Draghi's participation in meeting of the plenary of the European Parliament to mark the 20th anniversary of the euro in Strasbourg at 10:30GMT, then later at 15:00GMT, Draghi will address the EU Parliament, therefore, expect the euro to swing on his comments.
     
  10. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Jan 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 15 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 108.64
    The greenback's rally from yesterday's low at 107.99 to 108.75 today suggests pullback from last Tuesday's high at 109.09 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains for upmove from January's 9-month trough at 104.79 to resume and yield re-test of said resistance, break would extend towards 109.45/50 but over bought condition would keep price below 109.75 this week and yield correction later.

    On the downside, only below 107.77 would indicate temporary low has been made, risk stronger retracement towards 107.50/52.

    Data to be released on Tuesday:
    France budget balance, CPI, Germany annual GDP, EU trade balance, UK Parliamentary vote on Brexit'
    U.S. New York Fed manufacturing index, PPI, redbook, building permits, wholesales inventories, wholesale sales, durable goods, durables ex-defence, durables ex-transport, factory orders, new home sales, construction spending.
     
  11. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Jan 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 16 Jan 2019 06:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1408
    Euro's anticipated resumption of decline from last Thursday's 11-week high of 1.1570 to as low as 1.1382 yesterday confirms recent strong rise from 2018 bottom at 1.1216 (November) has made a top there and despite subsequent sterling-led rebound, as long as res at 1.1455 holds, further weakness is likely, however, loss of momentum should keep euro above 1.1346.

    A daily close above 1.1455 signals temporary low is made and risks stronger retracement of aforesaid fall towards 1.1491.

    The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with Germany's CPI n HICP and then Italy will release industrial sales and orders. We have ECB Governing Council Member Nowotny delivering an opening address at a Euromoney conference in Vienna at 08:40GMT, then German EcoMon Atmaier will speak in Berlin at 09:30GMT n later at 17:30GMT, ECB member de Galhau will speak in Paris at 17:30GMT.
     
  12. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Jan 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 16 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 108.62
    The greenback's rally from Monday's low at 107.99 to 108.76 yesterday suggests pullback from last Tuesday's high at 109.09 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains for upmove from January's 9-month trough at 104.79 to resume and yield re-test of said resistance, break would extend towards 109.45/50 but over bought condition would keep price below 109.75 this week and yield correction later.

    On the downside, only below 107.77 would indicate temporary low has been made, risk stronger retracement towards 107.50/52.

    Data to be released on Wednesday:
    Germany CPI, HICP, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, CPI, UK CPI, RPI, PPI input, PPI output, BBA mortgage approvals, DCLG house price index, and U.S. building permits, wholesales inventories, wholesale sales, durable goods, durables ex-defence, durables ex-transport, factory orders, new home sales, construction spending, MBA mortgage application, import prices, export prices, retail sales, business inventories, NAHB housing market index, Fed's Beige Book.
     
  13. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Jan 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 17 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1397
    Despite euro's recovery after yesterday's marginal weakness to an 11-day low of 1.1377, as long as 1.1455 holds, recent decline from January's 11-week peak at 1.1570 would head towards 1.1351, loss of downward momentum should keep price above pivotal sup at 1.1310.

    Above 1.1455 signals said fall has made a low and risk is seen for stronger subsequent gain to 1.1480/90.

    The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with Italy's trade bal n global trade balance, then EU's constriction output, HICP n core HICP. ECB Governing Council Board member Couere will speak sometime during Asian session at the G20 FinMin n central banking governors depuites meeting in Tokyo. ECB's Lautenschhlager will speak at a conference in Dublin at 11:00GMT.
     
  14. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Jan 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 17 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 108.76
    Although the greenback has retreated after yesterday's rise above previous resistance at 109.09 to 109.19 and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals upmove from January's 9-month trough at 104.79 has resumed, upside bias is retained and above said resistance would extend towards 109.45,.
    However, loss of momentum would keep price below 109.75, yield retreat.

    On the downside, only below 108.34 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 108.14 but 107.99 should remain intact.

    Data to be released on Thursday :
    UK RICS housing price balance, Italy trade balance, EU construction output, HICP.
    U.S. building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed survey wholesales inventories, wholesale sales, durable goods, durables ex-defence, durables ex-transport, factory orders, new home sales, construction spending, MBA mortgage application, retail sales, business inventories, NAHB housing market index and Canada ADP employment change.
     
  15. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Jan 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 18 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1393
    Despite euro's marginal weakness in New York session to a fresh 2-week low of 1.1370 on usd's gain following positive US/China trade talk news (but later denied), subsequent recovery suggests recent decline from January's 11-week peak at 1.1570 has possibly made a temporary bottom, above 1.1408 would bring retracement towards 1.1455 but res at 1.1491 should cap upside.

    Only below 1.1370 risks marginal weakness, however, loss of downward momentum should limit downside to 1.1341/51 today and yield a long-overdue correction later today or Monday.

    Today is the end of the 2-day G20 meeting of central bank deputies in Tokyo, we also have ECB's Lautenschlager speaking at 11:00GMT.
     
  16. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Jan 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 18 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 109.43
    The greenback's rise to a fresh 2-month peak at 109.39 yesterday on renewed U.S.-China trade optimism and intra-day break of this resistance to 109.46 signals upmove from January's 9-month trough at 104.79 remains in progress and consolidation with upside bias remains for further gain to 109.75, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 110.00 and yield a much-needed correction early next week.

    On the downside, only below 108.69 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 108.10/20.

    Data to be released on Friday :
    Swiss producer/import price, EU current account, UK retail sales.
    Canada CPI and U.S. building permits, housing starts, wholesales inventories, retail sales, industrial production, capacity uitlization, manufacturing output, U. Mich. sentiment, new home sales, durable goods, durables ex-defense, durables ex-transport, factory orders, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, business inventories.
     
  17. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Jan 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 21 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1375
    Despite euro's resumption of recent decline from Jan's 11-week peak of 1.1570 to a fresh 2-week low of 1.1353 in New York Friday due to usd's strength on market optimism over U.S./China trade talks, loss of downward momentum should keep price above January's bottom at 1.1310 and bring a long-overdue correction.

    On the upside, a daily close above 1.1411 signals temporary low has been made and would bring subsequent gain to 1.1450/55 before retreat.

    The only eco. data from the euro area countries is Germany's PPI for Dec. ECB president Draghi n ECB Executive Board member Coeure will participate in Eurogroup meeting in Brussels later.
     
  18. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Jan 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 21 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 109.61
    Although dollar has retreated after Friday's rally to a 2-week high at 109.88 in New York due to U.S./China trade optimism and range trading would be seen before recent upmove from January's 9-month trough of 104.79 extend towards 110.10/15 but near term loss of momentum would cap price below 110.38.

    On the downside, only below 109.09 would indicate temporary top made and risks weakness towards 108.69/76.

    As U.S. market is closed for Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, expect trading activity to be quiet in N. American time zone.
     
  19. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Jan 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 22 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1370
    Although euro has swung sideways in lackluster Monday's session following resumption of recent decline from January's 11-week peak at 1.1570 to 1.1353, outlook remains mildly bearish for marginal weakness after consolidation, loss of downward momentum should keep price above January's bottom at 1.1310 and bring rebound later today or tomorrow.

    On the upside, a daily close above Monday's 1.1391 high signals temporary low is made and would bring stronger retracement to 1.1427 and possibly towards 1.1455.

    ON the eco. dat fornt, Germany will release ZEW sentiment index n current conditions, then the EU will release ZRE eco. sentiment. Today is the ECCOFIN meeting and ECB's Vice President De Guindos will participate in the meeting.
     
  20. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Jan 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 22 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 109.40
    Although dollar's intra-day retreat from 109.70 at Asian open on cross-buying in yen suggests recent upmove from January's 9-month trough of 104.79 has made a temporary top at Friday's 2-1/2 week high at 109.88 and range trading would be seen, reckon 109.06/09 sup would hold and yield another rise but loss of momentum should cap price below 110.38.

    On the downside, only below 109.06 would risk stronger retracement towards 108.94, then 108.69/74.

    Data to be released on Tuesday :
    UK claimant count, PSNB, PSNCR, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current condition, EU ZEW economic sentiment.
    Canada manufacturing sales, wholesale sales, and U.S. building permits, wholesale inventories, retail sales, housing starts, existing home sales, business inventories, new home sales, durable goods, durables ex-defense, durables ex-transport, factory orders.
     

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