AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 May 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1968
Despite euro's knee-jerk reaction after Fed's hawkish hold in volatile New York trading on Wed, subsequent weakness to a fresh 3-1/2 month trough at 1.1938 suggests re-test of 2018 bottom at 1.1916 (January) would be seen after consolidation, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.1880/85.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.2032 confirms temporary low is in place, then risk is seen for stronger retracement to 1.2056, then 1.2084.

Data to be released later :
U.K. Markit services PMI, EU HICP, core HICP, producer prices, Canada trade balance, exports, imports, and U.S. trade balance, goods trade balance, initial jobless claims, Markit services PMI, durable ex-defence, durable goods, factory orders, durable ex-transportation, ISM non-manufacturing PMI

 

[stellaross]

USD/JPY: trapped between familiar barriers, waits for nonfarm payrolls
USD/JPY has been offered in Tokyo hours while Japanese traders are on holiday and following a mixed day on Wall Street after the Fed held rates and made minor tweaks to the statement leading participants in the markets to believe that there will be at least two more rate hikes in 2018, reinforcing the divergence between the Fed and BoJ.
By-Fx Street

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 May 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.67
Although the greenback has retreated in post-FOMC trading after earlier rise to a fresh 4-month peak at 110.04 yesterday and minor consolidation would be seen ahead of Friday's release of U.S. jobs report, as said move signals erratic rise from March's trough at 104.57 has resumed, upside bias is retained and above said resistance would extend towards 110.25/30 before prospect of a correction early next week.

On the downside, only below 109.09 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 108.90/95.
However, 108.13 should remain intact and yield rebound.

Although market's next attention is Fri's U.S. jobs data, today, we have U.S. Markit services PMI, March durable goods order (revisions) and ISM non-mfg PMI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 May 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1982
Euro's intra-day wild but broad sideways swings in directionless trading on Thursday suggests further choppy consolidation above Wed's fresh 3-1/2 month trough at 1.1938 would continue until release of blockbuster U.S. jobs data, as long as 1.2056 (previous sup, now res) holds, re-test of 2018 bottom at 1.1916 is envisaged.
However, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.1850/60.

A daily close above 1.2056 confirms low has been made and risk is seen for a long-overdue correction to 1.2100/10.

The euro area will release a slew of eco. data during European morning ahead of U.S. jobs report, please refer to our EI page for details. Also pay attention to speech by ECB's Weidmann at 13:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 May 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1972
Despite euro's resumption of recent downtrend to a fresh 3-1/2 month trough of 1.1912 in post-NFP New York trading, subsequent rebound and intra-day firmness in Asia suggests temporary low is possibly made and consolidation with upside bias is seen for stronger retracement to 1.2025.

Only below 1.1912/16 sup would risk marginal weakness however, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.1881/86 today.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting wit German industrial orders, EU sentix investor confidence index and French current account.
Later today,ECB Boad member Praet will deliver a speech at a financial event in Geneva at 15:30GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 May 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1933
Despite euro's resumption of recent downtrend to a 4-month trough of 1.1898 following downbeat German and EZ data, subsequent rebound in New York afternoon on usd's broad-based retreat suggests temporary low is possibly made, above 1.1978 would add credence to this view and would bring stronger retarcement to 1.2004/09.

Only below 1.1898 dampens prospect of a much-needed correction to take place, however, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.1955/60 today.

Pay attention to release a slew of German eco. data in European morning starting with industrial output, exports n imports, trade balance.
As euro has sold heavily after downbeat German industrial orders, pay attention to German ind. production data.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 May 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 108.98
The greenback's sharp retreat from yesterday's high at 109.40 to 108.86 today suggests recovery from last Friday's low at 108.65 has ended there and choppy trading below last Wednesday's near 3-month peak at 110.04 would continue with downside bias.
However, below said support is needed to yield stronger retracement of recent upmove towards 108.50/55 before prospect of rebound.

On the upside, only above 109.40 would indicate the pullback from 110.04 has ended instead and risk stronger gain towards 109.60 but 109.74/75 should remain intact and yield retreat.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Japan's household spending, Australia's retail sales, Japan household spending, Australia retail sales.
Swiss unemployment rate, Germany industrial output, exports, imports, trade balance, current account, UK Halifax house prices.;
Canada housing starts, and U.S. redbook, JOLTS job openings.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 May 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1850
Despite euro's rebound from yesterday's fresh 3-1/2 month trough of 1.1838 on short covering in choppy New York trading, as long as 1.1898 (Mon's low, now res) holds, outlook remains mildly bearish for recent downtrend to extend marginal weakness, loss of downward momentum is likely to keep euro above 1.1800/05.

A daily close above 1.1898 signals temporary low is made and would bring a much-needed correction to 1.1939.
However, reckon res at 1.1978 should cap upside this week.

Eco. calendar on the euro area countries is pretty light with France's industrial output n Italy's retail sales are the only data due out in European morning. Germany's FinMin Scholz will speak at a press conference on tax revenue estimates at 13:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 May 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1863
Although euro's strong rebound from Wed's fresh 4-month trough of 1.1823 to 1.1897 suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low there and range trading is expected in holiday-thinned European morning (many European centres are closed for market holiday), as long as 1.1897 res holds, marginal weakness can't be ruled out but loss of downward momentum is likely to limit weakness to 1.1800/05.

On the upside, a daily close above 1.1897 would bring stronger correction to 1.1939 and then 1.1978 before prospect of a retreat.

Data to release on Thursday :
New Zealand interest rate decision, Japan current account, economy watchers current, economy watchers outlook, China PPI, CPI.
Italy industrial output, UK RICS housing price balance, construction output, industrial output, manufacturing output, trade balance non-EU, trade balance GBP, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPC vote cut, BoE interest rate decision, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporate bond purchase,
U.S. core CPI, NIESR GDP, core CPI, CPI, initial jobless claims, federal budget, and Canada new housing price index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 May 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1923
Yesterday's rally from 1.1843 (AUS) to as high as 1.1947 in New York morning after soft U.S. CPI data confirms euro's recent downtrend has made a temporary low at Wednesday's fresh 4-month bottom at 1.1823 as as price has risen after intra-day pullback to 1.1876, bullishness remains for gain towards 1.2000 later today or early next week.

On the downside, only below 1.1876 would prolong choppy sideways swings but reckon pivotal sup at 1.1843 should remain intact.

Although no euro area eco. data is due out today, pay attention to speech by ECB President Draghi at the 8th edition of The State of the Union organised by EUI in Florence, Italy at 13:15GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 May 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1962
Euro's anticipated rally to 1.1968 in New York on Friday due to broad-based profit taking in the usd confirms recent downtrend has made a temporary low at Wednesday's near 4-month trough of 1.1823 and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain towards 1.2000, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price below res at 1.2032.

On the downside, only below 1.1920/30 would bring stronger retracement of said upmove towards 1.1891 before prospect of rebound.

No eco. data is due out from the euro area countries today but there is a no. of ECB members due to speak later during the day (please refer to our EI page for details).

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 May 2018 02:20 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1936
Despite euro's resumption of upmove from last Wednesday's near 4-month trough of 1.1823 to 1.1996 in New York morning, subsequent strong retreat to 1.1921 at the close due to rebound in U.S. yields and short covering in the usd signals 1st leg of correction has ended and 1-2 days of 'choppy' sideways swings are in store.

Expect 1.1891 sup to contain intra-day weakness and bring rebound but above 1.1996 needed to head towards 1.2025.
Only a daily close below 1.1891 may risk weakness towards 1.1843.

Pay attention to release of a slew of euro area data starting with German Q1 GDP, France's CPI, Germany's ZEW eco. sentiment and current conditions n then EZ GDP, ind. production n ZEW eco. sentiment.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 May 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1825
Euro's brief break of last week's 1.1823 low to a 4-1/2 month trough of 1.1820 in New York morning due to rising U.S. yields and mildly upbeat U.S. retail sales, then intra-day marginal weakness to 1.1817 ahead of Asian open should pressure price to 1.1765/70, loss of momentum would prevent steep fall and bring a much-needed minor correction later.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1875 signals temporary bottom is made and risk retracement to 1.1891, break, 1.1933/38.

Data out on Wednesday :
Japan GDP, GDP annualised, GDP deflator, industrial production, capacity utilization, China House price, Australia wage price index.
Germany CPI, HICP, Italy industrial output, industrial sales, CPI final, CPI (EU Norm) final, HICP final, core HICP.
Canada manufacturing sales, and U.S. MBA mortgage application, building permits, housing starts, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 May 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1810
Despite yesterday's resumption of recent downtrend to a 5-1/2 month trough of 1.1763 due to market concerns after future Italian govt. had asked for a huge debt forgiveness from the ECB, subsequent rebound on usd's broad-based retreat should bring consolidation, as long as 1.1875 holds, one more fall is still envisaged but reckon daily sup at 1.1718 should remain intact this week.

A daily close above 1.1875 confirms temporary low is in place and risk would increase for a stronger retracement towards 1.1938 later.

The euro area countries will relesase a slew of eco. data staring with Italy's trade balance, then the same from the EU, EU construction output. The out-going ECB Vice President will be making speaking in Frankfurt at 10:30GMT n then 12:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 May 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1803
Although yesterday's erratic fall from 1.1838 to 1.1777 suggests euro's correction from Wed's 5-1/2 month bottom at 1.1763 has possibly ended, subsequent sideways move in New York would bring consolidation initially today before one more fall, loss of downward momentum should keep price above daily sup at 1.1718.

Only a daily close above 1.1845 confirms a temporary low is made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1890/00.

Data out on Friday :
Japan national CPI, national core CPI, Germany producer prices, wholesale price index, EU current account, trade balance, and Canada CPI, CPI BoC core, retail sales, retail sales ex-autos.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 May 2018 5:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1763
Despite euro's rebound from last Fri's fresh 5-1/2 month trough of 1.1750, as long as 1.1822 holds, downside bias remains for marginal weakness below said temporary low, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.1718 and bring correction.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1822 signals temporary low is made, risks stronger retracement to 1.1838, then 1.1854.

No major EZ eco. data is due out today but we have release of monthly Bundesbank monthly report and EU Financial Stability Review during European morning.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 May 2018 5:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1781
Euro's intra-day decline from 1.1830 (Europe) to .1770 in New
York suggests correction from Mon's 6-month trough at 1.1717 has possibly ended, below 1.1750 would add credence to this view and yield re-test of said temp. low, 'loss of downward momentum' would limit weakness to 1.1685/90 today.

Only a daily close above 1.1830 risks stronger retracement to 1.1854 and possibly to 1.1875.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
France ILO unemployment rate, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, consumer confidence, U.K. DCLG Hosue Price Index, core CPI, CPI, RPI, Core RPI, PPI input price, PPI output price, PPI core output, CBI distributive trades.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, building permits, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, new home sales, FOMC minutes.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 May 2018 9:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.88
Dollar's intra-day selloff which started in Asia and then break of previous 110.04 sup in Europe due to falling U.S. yields confirms Medium Term rise from 2018 bottom at 104.57 (March) has indeed made a temporary high at 111.40 (Monday) and downside bias remains for stronger correction to 109.15/25.

On the upside, only a daily close above 110.61 signals 1st leg of correction is over and may risk stronger retracement to 110.90/00.

On the U.S. eco. data front, all eyes are on the release of last FOMC meeting minutes at 18:00GMT, before that, we have MBA mortgage application, building permits, Markit mfg and services indices, and then new home sales.
Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari (non-voter) will speak at 18:15GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 May 2018 5:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1706
Although euro's intra-day rebound from Wed's fresh 6-month trough at 1.1686 after mildly FOMC minutes suggests initial sideways swings above said temporary low would be seen, as long as 1.1750/57 holds, outlook remains bearish for one more fall, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.1630/40 this week.

A daily close above 1.1750 signals temporary low is in place and would bring stronger retracement to 1.1797, then towards 1.1830.

The Eurogroup is having a meeting in Brussels today and will be attended by many EU officials as well as ECB members including ECB President Draghi, pls refer to our EI page for details as well as times of speeches by them.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 May 2018 5:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1717
Euro's erratic rise to 1.1750 yesterday suggests recent downtrend has possibly made a temporary low at Wednesday's fresh 6-month trough at 1.1676, above 1.1770 would add credence to this view and bring a much-needed correction to 1.1800.
However, res at 1.1830 should cap upside.

On the downside, below 1.1691 would risk one more fall, loss of downward momentum would limit weakness to 1.1755/60.

Pay attention to release of key German Ifo data esp. the May business climate, if actual comes in weaker than forecast (102.0), then euro will be bashed.