AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 May 2018 5:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1688
Euro's intra-day rebound to 1.1692 after Italy's President rejected eurosceptic Savona as EconMin suggests initial choppy trading above Friday's fresh 6-month trough at 1.1646 would continue, above 1.1700/10 needed to signal temporary low is made and bring stronger retracement towards 1.1750.

On the downside, below 1.1646 would extend marginal weakness, loss of downward momentum should limit weakness to 1.1600/10 before prospect of a much-needed correction.

On the eco. data front, Italy's PPI is the only data due out at 08:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 May 2018 5:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1625
Yesterday's selloff from 1.1728 and then break of last Fri's 1.1646 low to a 6-1/2 month bottom of 1.1608 due to renewed political turmoil in Italy and Spain suggests recent downtrend would pressure euro to 1.1575/80, near term loss of downward momentum would keep price above key daily sup at 1.1554.

On the upside, only above 1.1676 signals temporary low is in place and may risk stronger gain to 1.1700, however, reckon 1.1728 would cap upside.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Japan unemployment rate, Swiss import, export, trade balance, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence, France consumer confidence, and U.S. Case-Shiller home price, consumer confidence, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 May 2018 6:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1540
Yesterday's intra-day selloff from 1.1640 at European open to as low as 1.1510 due to sharp fall in German bond yields caused by Italian bond market rout suggests re-test of said Tuesday's 10-month trough at 1.1510 would be seen.
However, near term loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.1445/48 today.

On the upside, only above 1.1589 (reaction high in New York) signals temporary low is made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1608 but reckon 1.1640 should cap upside.

On the data front (not many will be paying too much attention to them), we have German import and export prices and retail sales, then France's consumer spending and Q1 GDP, Germany's unemployment, EU's business climate, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence and finally Germany's CPI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 May 2018 9:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 108.65
The greenback's intra-day selloff and subsequent break of last week's low at 109.96 signals decline from May's peak at 111.40 has once again resumed and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 108.30/32 would be seen, however, loss of momentum would keep price above 108.00/05 and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the upside, only above 109.83 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 110.04 before prospect of retreat.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 31 May 2018 5:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1654
Yesterday's rally from 1.1518 (Asia) to 1.1648 in Europe and then subsequent gain to 1.1676 in New York due to euro's relief rally on easing of political crisis in Italy suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary bottom at Wed's 10-month trough at 1.1510, however, near term over bought condition should prevent strong gain and reckon 1.1728 res would cap upside and yield strong retreat.

On the downside, a daily close below 1.1595 (NY low) would be the 1st signal correction is over and yield weakness to 1.1543/48 later

Data to be released on Thursday :
Swiss GDP, retail sales, France CPI (EU norm) preliminary, producer prices, U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, mortgage approvals, Italy unemployment rate, CPI preliminary, CPI (EU norm) preliminary, EU HICP, core HICP, unemployment rate.
U.S. personal spending, personal income, core PCE price index, PCE price index, initial jobless claims, Chicago PMI, and Canada GDP, GDP annualized

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Jun 2018 5:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1695
As euro has risen after yesterday's intra-day retreat from 1.1724 to 1.1642 (New York), suggesting near term upmove from Tuesday's 10-month trough at 1.1510 would head to chart obj. at 1.1750, loss of upward momentum should cap price below 1.1800 and yield strong retracement of aforesaid rise (release of upbeat U.S. jobs report perhaps).

On the downside, a daily close below 1.1642 signals at least the 1st leg of correction from 1.1510 has ended and would pressure price towards 1.1595.

Data to be released on Friday :
New Zealand imports, exports, Australia AIG manufacturing index, HIA new home sales, Japan Nikkei manufacturing PMI, China Caixin manufacturing PMI.
Swiss manufacturing PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, GDP, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing, and Canada Markit manufacturing PMI

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Jun 2018 5:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1663
Despite euro's intra-day wild swings in post-NFP New York morning on Fri, subsequent rebound from 1.1617 suggests pullback from 1.1724 (Thursday) has possibly ended and corrective upmove from Tuesday's 6-month trough at 1.1510 would head towards 1.1750, 'loss of momentum' should cap price at 1.1770/80.

On the downside, a daily close below 1.1617 would signal said correction from 1.1510 has ended and would pressure price to 1.1670/75 later.

On the eco. front, the eco calendar is pretty light with EU Sentix investor confidence, PPI being the only data due out.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Jun 2018 5:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1694
Despite euro's anticipated rise to 1.1744 at New York open on Monday, subsequent decline to 1.1677 due to renewed usd's strength suggests 1st leg of correction from last Tuesday's 10-month trough at 1.1510 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains, below 1.1677 would encourage for subsequent weakness towards 1.1617.

Only above res at 11744/50 risks marginal gain, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price at 1.1785/90 and yield decline.

Today is PMI day in the euro area countries, however. France will kick off with budget balance first, then Italy's services PMI, followed by the same from France, Germany n the EU, then EU retails sales. Fyi, Draghi's speech organised by the ECB on the occasion of its 20th anniversary originally scheduled at 13:00GMT in Frankfurt was cancelled. Later today, ECB Board member Weidmann will speak in Brussels at 17:30GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Jun 2018 06:00 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1725
Yesterday's rally from 1.1653 to 1.1732 in hectic New York trading suggests euro's pullback from 1.1744 (Monday) has ended and corrective rise from last Tuesday's 10-month trough at 1.1510 may head to 1.1780/90 after consolidation, loss of upward momentum should cap price well below res at 1.1830.

On the downside, below 1.1653 anytime signals said upmove has made a top and risks retracement to 1.1617 later.

Although no important EZ data is due out today, we have ECB's Praet and Knot speaking at 07:00GMT and 09:00GMT respectively.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Jun 2018 5:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1789
Yesterday's rally to 1.1796 in New York following hawkish comments earlier in European morning by ECB officials suggests euro's upmove from last Tuesday's 10-month bottom at 1.1510 may head to chart res at 1.1830.
However, near term loss of upward momentum would prevent further strong gain and risk has increased for a retreat later today or tomorrow.

Below 1.1744 signals temporary top is in place and yields retracement to 1.1705/10, then towards 1.1677.

Data to release later today:
Swiss unemployment rate, Germany industrial orders, France current account, trade balance, imports, exports, U.K. Halifax house prices, Italy retail sales, EU GDP.
U.S. initial jobless claims.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Jun 2018 5:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1806
Despite euro's retreat from Thursday's 3-week high of 1.1840, as long as 1.1780/90 holds, outlook remains mildly bullish for upmove from May's 10-month trough at 1.1510 to head to 1.1860/70, loss of upward momentum should cap price below 1.1907.

Below 1.1761 anytime confirms said rise has made a temporary top and risks stronger retarcement to 1.1744, then 1.1705/10.

Euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with Germany's industrial orders, trade balance and France's industrial output. ECB's Mersch will speak in Paris at 07:15GMT

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Jun 2018 5:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1780
Although euro's decline from last Thursday's 3-week high at 1.1840 to 1.1727 on Fri suggests recent strong upmove from May's 10-month trough at 1.1510 has made a top there, subsequent rebound would bring choppy sideways swings initially, as long as res at 1.1810 holds, downside bias remains for another fall towards 1.1727, however, reckon 1.1675 would contain weakness.

On the upside, only above 1.1810 may risk re-test of 1.1840, then marginal gain to 1.1870/75 before prospect of a correction later.

EZ eco. calendar is pretty light with Italy's industrial output being the only data due out. German Chancellor Merkel will be speaking at 15:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Jun 2018 5:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1757
Despite euro's strong rebound from 1.1727 (Fri) to 1.1821 in Europe yesterday, subsequent retreat and then intra-day weakness on broad-based usd's strength ahead of outcome of Trump/Kim summit suggests choppy trading below last Thursday's 3-week peak at 1.1840 would continue, as long as 1.1727 sup holds, upside bias remains but above 1.1840 needed to head to 1.1880/90 later.

A daily close below 1.1727 would risk stronger retracement of recent upmove towards 1.1675 but sup at 1.1617 should remain intact.

Data out later on Tuesday :
U.K. claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, average weekly earnings, lower house vote on withdrawal bill, EU ZEW economic sentiment, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions.
U.S. core CPI, CPI, Redbook, Federal budget, Trump-Kim summit

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Jun 2018 6:00 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1747
Although euro's decline from 1.1809 to 1.1733 on Tuesday suggests further volatile sideways swings below last Thursday's 3-week peak at 1.1840 would continue with downside bias ahead of Fed's rate decision, below 1.1727 (Friday's reaction low) needed to bring stronger correction of recent rise from 1.1510 (May's low) to 1.1700, reckon 1.1675 would hold and yield another rise later this week.

On the upside, above 1.1809 would encourage for re-test of 1.1840, break would extend said upmove to 1.1880/90.

On the data front, the EU will release employment n industrial production data at 09:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Jun 2018 5:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1791
Despite euro's intra-day spike down to a 6-day low of 1.1726 after Fed's hawkish tilt, subsequent rally to session highs of 1.1801, then intra-day marginal gain to 1.1805 suggests correction from last week's top at 1.1840 has ended and choppy sideways swings are in store ahead of key ECB's live monetary policy meeting in Riga, Latvia later today.

As long as 1.1726 holds, re-test of 1.1840 is envisaged, break would extend recent upmove from May's 1.1510 bottom to 1.1880/90 later and only below said sup risks stronger retracement towards 1.1675 before prospect of rebound.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data later today starting with weekly jobless claims, import n export prices, May retail sales n business inventories.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Jun 2018 5:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1562
Euro's intra-day selloff from Thursday's 3-week high of 1.1852 in post-ECB to as low as 1.1563 due to ECB Draghi's 'dovish' guidance suggests correction from May's 10-month trough at 1.1510 has ended there and re-test of this key sup is envisaged, break would extend Medium Term downtrend to 1.1480.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1653 defers bearishness on the euro but 1.1726/27 (previous sup, now res) should remain intact.

There is a slew of euro area eco. data due out during European morning (please refer to EI page for details) and ECB Board member Coeure will speak at 08:45GMT in Paris.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Jun 2018 5:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1632
Although intra-day selloff in usd/yen has led to broad-based usd's weakness vs the G4 currencies, suggesting further choppy trading above last Friday's 2-week low at 1.1543 would continue, above 1.1672/77 needed to bring stronger retracement of last week;s selloff from 1.1852 to 1.1700/10 before another fall.

A firm break of 1.1596 (New York low) signals correction is over and would head back towards 1.1543 later today or tomorrow.
The eco. calendar is pretty light with EU's current account n construction output being the only data due out.

However, pay attention to speeches by a number of ECB officials who are appearing in the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal. ECB President Draghi will begin by delivering the first speech at 08:00GMT, then followed by other speakers (please refer to EI section for details).

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Jun 2018 6:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1576
Despite yesterday's resumption of decline from last week's 1.1852 high to 1.1531 in Europe, subsequent short-covering rebound in New York suggests further choppy trading above May's 10-month bottom at 1.1510 would continue and gain to 1.1624/27 can't be ruled out but 1.1645 should remain intact.

Below 1.1550 would head towards 1.1510 but loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.1480 today.

On the eco. data front, German PPI is the only data due out. The ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal continues today with a number of ECB officials and Fed chairman J. Powell and other central bankers scheduled to speak during the day (pls refer to EI page for details).

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Jun 2018 5:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1565
Although yesterday's rebound from 1.1537 (Europe) to 1.1600 after mildly hawkish comments by ECB's Draghi suggests further choppy trading above Tuesday's 2-1/2 week low at 1.1531 would continue, as long as 1.1600 holds, recent decline is likely to re-test said temp. bottom, however, reckon May's 1.1510 trough may hold on 1st testing.

Only above 1.1600/10 would risk stronger gain towards 1.1645, however, 1.1685/95 should cap upside and yield another fall later.

After the 3-day ECB Forum in Portugal which some heavy-weight speakers (central bankers & senior officials))did cause a stir in the market. Today, we have Eurogroup meeting in Luxembourg where ECB's Draghi will participate in the meeting too.
On the eco. data front, France will kick off with business climate n later in NY morning, EU will release consumer confidence. Please refer to our EI page for times of speeches by key ECB officials.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Jun 2018 9:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 110.59
Despite the greenback's selloff from last Friday's 3-week peak at 110.90 to 109.55 Tuesday on increased trade tensions between U.S. and China, subsequent rebound to 110.76 today suggests aforesaid pullback has ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for upmove from May's peak at 108.12 to resume and yield re-test of aforesaid resistance, break would extend towards 111.10/20 before prospect of retreat.

On the downside, only below 109.55 would indicate a temporary top has been made instead and risk stronger retracement towards 109.20.
U,S, eco. calendar is pretty light with initial weekly jobless claims, Philly Fed survey and monthly home price. Also, we have a slew of Fed officials scheduled to speak in New York session (please refer to EI page for details).