AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx July 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 22 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1790
Although euro's rebound on Wednesday after marginal weakness to a fresh 3-1/2 month low at 1.1753 would bring sideways swings ahead of key ECB monetary policy meeting announcement, reckon 1.1850 res would cap upside and yield another fall.

On the downside, below 1.1753 (ECB's dovish hold perhaps) would pressure price towards 2021 bottom at 1.1705 (March).

Data to be released on Thursday:
Japan market holiday, France business climate.
U.K. CBI trends orders, EU ECB refinancing rate, ECB deposit rate.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, U.S. existing home sales, leading index change, KC manufacturing index and EU consumer confidence.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx July 22: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 22 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.28
Despite dollar's selloff to a 7-week trough at 109.07 on Monday due to risk-averse buying in jpy, subsequent strong rebound to 109.95 yesterday and intra-day break above there suggests decline from July's peak at 111.65 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.34, however, resistance at 110.69 would remain intact and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 109.54 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 109.34 later this week.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details n pay attention to release of weekly jobless cliams, continued jobless claims.

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AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx July 23: AceTraderFx July 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD


flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1777​

As euro's intraday wild swings after ECB's dovish hold has ended with price falling from 1.1830 to 1.1758, re-test of Wednesday's 3-1/2 month trough at 1.1753 would be seen, however, loss of downward momentum may keep price above 2021 bottom at 1.1705 (March) today and risk has increased for a correction to occur next week.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1830 would bring stronger retracement of recent decline to 1.1850.

Data to be released on Friday:
Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Japan market holiday.
U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, retail sales, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI
France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI.
Canada retail sales, U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI and Markit services PMI.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx July 23: AceTraderFx July 23: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 23 July 2021 09:30GM

USD/JPY - 110.48
Despite dollar's selloff to a 7-week trough at 109.07 on Monday due to risk-averse buying in jpy, subsequent strong rebound to 110.38 on Wednesday and intra-day break above there suggests decline from July's peak at 111.65 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.97/00, however, resistance at 111.18 would remain intact and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 109.54 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 109.34 later this week.

Data to be released on Friday:
Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Japan market holiday.
U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, U.K. retail sales, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI.
Canada retail sales, U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI and Markit services PMI.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx July 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 26 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1770
Euro's selloff from 1.1830 (Thursday) to 1.1755 on Friday suggests re-test of Wednesday's fresh 3-1/2 month trough at 1.1753 would be seen, break there would extend recent erratic decline towards 2021 bottom at 1.1705 (March) but 'loss of downward momentum' may keep price above there.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1804 'prolongs' choppy sideways trading and may risk another rise towards 1.1830.

Market's attention is release of Germany's key Ifo data, keep an eye out on Jul's business climate n current expectations.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx July 26: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 26 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.16
Despite dollar's selloff to a 7-week trough at 109.07 last Monday due to risk-averse buying in jpy, subsequent strong rebound to 110.58 on Friday suggests decline from July's peak at 111.65 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.97/00, however, resistance at 111.18 would remain intact and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 109.54 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 109.34 later this week.

Data to be released later :
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports, Japan Jibun bank manufacturing PMI.
Germany import prices, Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations.
U.S. building permits, new home sales and Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx July 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 27 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0808
Although euro's fall from 1.1830 (Thursday) to 1.1755 on Friday suggests correction from July's 3-1/2 month trough at 1.1753 has ended, Monday's stronger-than-expected rebound due to broad-based usd's weakness would bring further choppy swings ahead of Wed's Fed's monetary policy decision.

As long as 1.1830 holds, downside bias remains for re-test of 1.1753, however, loss of downward momentum would keep price above 2021 bottom at 1.1705.
Only a daily close above 1.1830 risks stronger retracement to 1.1880/90 before prospect of decline later

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Italy trade balance.
U.S. durables goods, durables ex-transport, durables ex-defense, redbook, monthly home price, consumer confidence and Richmond Fed manufacturing.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx July 27: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 27 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.10
Despite dollar's selloff to a 7-week trough at 109.07 last Monday due to risk-averse buying in jpy, subsequent strong rebound to 110.58 on Friday suggests decline from July's peak at 111.65 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.97/00, however, resistance at 111.18 would remain intact and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 109.54 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 109.34 later this week.

The increase was also driven by a 1.3% rise in transportation fees as international freight prices continued to increase, highlighting the cost pressure companies are facing as economies across the globe re-open
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx July 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 28 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1817
Although yesterday's brief break of last week's 1.1830 high to 1.1841 in New York due to broad-based usd's weakness suggests recent decline has made a temporary bottom at 1.1753 last week, subsequent retreat would bring consolidation ahead of key FOMC's announcement, below 1.1171 signals correction over and yields re-test of 1.1753, then later towards 2021 trough at 1.1705.

A daily close above 1.1841 (Fed's dovish hold perhaps) would risk stronger gain to 1.1880/90 later.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia CPI, Japan coincident index, leading indicator,
U.K. BRC shop price index, Germany Gfk consumer sentiment, France consumer confidence, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence, Swiss investor sentiment.
U.S. MBA mortgage application good trade balance, wholesale inventories, Fed interest rate decision and Canada CPI.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx July 28: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 28 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.95
Although dlr's decline from 110.59 (Fri) to 109.59 in tandem with U.S. yields suggests early cross-inspired rise from Jul's 109.07 bottom has made a temporary top, intra-day rebound in Europe would bring consolidation ahead of key FOMC's announcement.

A daily close above 110.13 signals pullback is over, then outlook would turn bullish for re-test of 110.59. Below 109.59 would shift risk to downside for weakness towards 109.07 later.

Ahead of FOMC announcement at 18:00GMT and post-FOMC press conference at 18:30GMT, we have some second-tier data due out, please refer to our EI page for details.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx July 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 29 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1843
Euro's intra-day jump from 1.1773 to 1.1849 in post-FOMC Wed after Fed's dovish hold suggests recent erratic rise from July's 3-1/2 month trough at 1.1773 would yield further gain after consolidation, overbought condition would cap price below res at 1.1894 and yield retreat later.

On the downside, a daily close below 1.1800 signals correction is over, then risk would shift to the downside for weakness to 1.1771/73.

Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand NBNA business outlook, NBNZ outlook activity, Australia export prices, import prices, U.K. nationwide house price, France producer prices Germany unemployment change, Italy producer prices, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence, Germany CPI, HICP, U.S. GDP, PCE prices, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, pending house sales and Canada average weekly earnings.
On the downside, a daily close below 1.1800 signals correction is over, then risk would shift to the downside for weakness to 1.1771/73.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx July 29: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 29 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.79
Yesterday's fall from 110.28 following dovish comments by J. Powell at post-FOMC presser to 109.69 today suggests choppy trading below last week's high at 110.59 would continue and intra-day broad-based usd's weakness would pressure price to 109.59, as broad outlook remains consolidative, reckon Jul's bottom at 109.07 should remain intact and yield rebound.

Only a daily close above 110.00 would bring another rise to 110.28, however, 110.59 should hold from here.

Now that the key FOMC is out of the way, traders will focus on U.S. eco. data, today we have a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for detials and pay attention to Q2 GDP, Q2 PCE, initial jobless claims n continued jobless claims at 12:30GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx July 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 30 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1884
Euro's rally in post-FOMC Wed to as high as 1.1892 yesterday confirms recent decline from 1.2266 (May) has made a low in mid-Jul at 1.1753 and as long as 1.1830 (last week's high, now sup) holds, further gain is envisaged after consolidation, however, near term loss of upward momentum would liimit upside to 1.1940/44 today.

Only a daily close below 1.1830 indicates temporary top is made and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1800/05.

On the data front, euro aea countries will release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details and pay attention to CPI and GDP data.
 

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx July 30: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 30 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.53
The greenback's selloff following the Federal Reserve's dovish hold on Wednesday and yesterday's release of soft U.S. GDP data to 109.37 in Australia today suggests correction from July's bottom at 109.07 has ended at 110.59 last Friday and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said support, break would extend MT decline to 108.70/80 before prospect of a rebound.

On the upside, only abv 110.28 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger gain to 110.59 again.

Data to be released on Friday:
Japan unemployment rate, industrial output, retail sales, construction orders, housing starts, consumer confidence, Australia PPI, France PPI.
Germany GDP, import prices, Swiss retail sales, KOF indicators, France CPI, Italy unemployment rate, GDP, CPI, EU HICP, GDP, unemployment rate.
U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE price index, employment wages, employment costs, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan sentiment, Canada GDP, producer prices and budget balance.
 

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Aug 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 02 Aug 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1868
Euro's decline from 1.1909 Fri's 1-month high of to 1.1852 New York after upbeat U.S. data suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top and consolidation with downside bias remains for retracement of early rise from 1.1753, reckon 1.1773 sup would hold and yield rebound.

Only above 1.1909 risks one more rise but loss of upward momentum would cap price at 1.1940/44 and yield another decline.

Today is PMI day in the euro area countries, pls refer to our EI page for details n pay attention to Germany's n EU's Markit PMI, a weaker-than-expected number will weigh on the euro.
 

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Aug 02: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 02 Aug 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.65The greenback's selloff following the Federal Reserve's dovish hold on Wednesday and yesterday's release of soft U.S. GDP data to 109.37 in Australia today suggests correction from July's bottom at 109.07 has ended at 110.59 last Friday and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said support, break would extend Medium Term decline to 108.70/80 before prospect of a rebound.

On the upside, only above 110.28 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger gain to 110.59 again.

Data to be released later:
Australia AIG manufacturing PMI, manufacturing PMI, Japan Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI, consumer confidence, China caixin manufacturing PMI.
Germany retail sales, Markit manufacturing PMI, Swiss CPI, retail sales, manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI.
Canada market holiday, U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending and ISM manufacturing PMI on Monda
 

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Aug 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 03 Aug 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1878
Yesterday's retreat from 1.1896 suggests further sideways swings below Friday's 1-month peak at 1.1909 would continue with downside bias, below 1.1852 (reaction low Friday) confirms recent upmove from 1.1753 (July low) has made a temporary top and brings stronger retracement, reckon 1.1800/05 would remain intact.

Only above 1.1909 risks marginal gain, however, loss of upward momentum would cap price at 1.1940/44 and yield decline later.

Eco. calendar is pretty light with EU's PPI being the only data due out at 09:00GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Aug 03: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 03 Aug 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.22
The greenback's selloff yesterday to 109.19 on broad-based risk-averse buying in jpy and intra-day break below there suggests a re-test of July's bottom at 109.07 would be seen after consolidation, break would extend decline from July's peak at 111.65 towards 108.70/80 after consolidation, however, loss of momentum would keep price above support at 108.57 and yield a much-needed rebound later.

On the upside, only above 109.82 would indicate a temporary bottom has been made and risk stronger retracement to 110.10/15 but 110.28 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Japan Tokyo core CPI, Australia building permits, RBA rate decision.
Swiss consumer confidence, EU producer prices.
U.S. redbook, durables ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders, durables ex-transport, Canada Markit manufacturing PMI and New Zealand GDT price index.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Aug 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 04 Aug 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1866
Although euro's daily choppy sideways swings following early retreat from Friday's 1-month high of 1.1909 to 1.1852 would continue, downside bias remains and below 1.1852 would bring stronger retracement of early upmove from July's 1.1753 bottom to 1.1800/10 later this week.

Only above 1.1909 risks marginal gain, however, loss of upward momentum would cap price below 1.1944 and yield decline.

Today is PMI day in the euro area countries (pls refer to EI page for detials), pay attention to German n EU's Markit services PMI, a lower-than-expected reading would weigh on euro.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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74
Hong Kong
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AceTraderFx Aug 04: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 04 Aug 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.19
The greenback's selloff yesterday to 109.19 on broad-based risk-averse buying in jpy and intra-day break below there suggests a re-test of July's bottom at 109.07 would be seen after consolidation, break would extend decline from July's peak at 111.65 towards 108.70/80 after consolidation, however, loss of momentum would keep price above support at 108.57 and yield a much-needed rebound later.

On the upside, only above 109.82 would indicate a temporary bottom has been made and risk stronger retracement to 110.10/15 but 110.28 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia AIG construction index, services PMI, retail sales, New Zealand labour cost index, employment change, unemployment rate, Japan services PMI, China caixin services PMI.
France budget balance, Markit services PMI, Italy Markit services PMI, retail sales, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, retail sales, U.K. Markit services PMI.U.S. MBA mortgage application, ADP employment change, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI and Canada building permits.