AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Jun 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 23 Jun 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1933
Euro's break of 1.1921/25 res to 1.1952 yesterday's due to broad-based usd's weakness following Fed J. Powell's dovish testimony before the Congress confirms recent decline from 1.2266 (May) has made a temporary low earlier at 1.1848 (Friday), near term overbought condition should prevent strong gain and recon res at 1.2006 should cap upside and yield retreat later this week.

On the downside, a daily close below 1.1921 would be the first signal recovery is over, then risk would shift to downside for weakness to 1.1882.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Japan Jibun bank manufacturing PMI, coincident index, leading indicator.
France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI.
U.S. MBA mortgage app, building permits, current account, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, new home sales and Canada retail sales.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Jun 23: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 23 Jun 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.88
Despite dollar's fall from last Thursday's 10-week peak at 110.82 to 109.72 on Monday, subsequent rally in tandem with U.S. yields and intra-day break above said resistance suggests consolidation with upside bias remains for a re-test of 2021 peak at 110.96, where break would extend Medium Term upmove to 111.20/30 before prospect of a much-needed correction due to loss of momentum.

On the downside, only below 109.72 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement of recent upmove to 109.60 but 109.20 should hold.

Today is PMI day in the US together with a slew of other eco data, please refer to our EI page for details. Also, we have Fed's Bowman n Fed's Bostic scheduled to speak in New York session.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Jun 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 24 Jun 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1930
Despite extending erratic rise from last Friday's 9-week trough at 1.1848 to 1.1969 in New York morning on continued usd's weakness after soft U.S. data, intra-day decline following hawkish comments by Fed officials suggests temporary top is made and consolidation with downside bias is in store.

Below 1.1911 signals correction is possibly over and heads back towards 1.1882, then re-test of 1.1848 next week. Only above 1.1969 risks marginal gain but loss of upward momentum should cap price below res at 1.2006.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Germany import prices, Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, France business climate, U.K. BoE interest rate decision, asset purchase program, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporation bond purchases, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE vote unchanged, BoE vote cut.
U.S. durable goods, durable ex-transport, durables ex-defence, GDP, PCE prices, trade balance, wholesale inventories, initial jobless claims, continuous jobless claims, KC Fed manufacturing and Cana average weekly earnings.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Jun 24: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Jun 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.87
Despite dollar's retreat from yesterday's near 15-month peak at 111.10 to 110.67 in New York, subsequent rally in tandem with U.S. yields and intra-day break above said resistance suggests consolidation with upside bias remains for Medium Term upmove to extend to 111.40/50 before prospect of a much-needed correction due to loss of momentum.

On the downside, only below 110.48 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement of recent upmove to 109.72 but 109.20 should hold.

Ahead of Friday's release of Fed's preferred inflation gauge, namely the core personal consumption expenditures price index, the U.S. will release a slew of eco. data which will cause intra-day price swings, please refer to our EI page for details n pay attention to Q1 GDP, durable goods n Q1 PCE prices etc. Following Wed's hawkish comments by Fed's Bowman n Bostic, we have more fed speak by a number of FOMC members, so usd may go up on more hawkish comments by some of them.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Jun 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 25 Jun 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1930
Although yesterday's sideways swings below Wednesday's 1.1969 high suggests consolidation may continue ahead of release of Fed's preferred inflation gauge, namely the core personal consumption expenditures price index later today, downside bias remains and below 1.1882 would signal correction from last Friday's 2-1/2 month trough at 1.1848 has ended and yield re-test of this level next week.

Only a daily close above 1.1969 may risk stronger retracement of recent decline towards 1.2006.

Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand import, trade balance, exports.
U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, Japan Tokyo CPI, Germany Gfk consumer sentiment, Italy consumer confidence, trade balance.
U.S. CBI distributive trades, personal income, personal spending, PCE prices and University of Michigan sentiment.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Jun 25: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 25 Jun 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.74
Despite dollar's initial marginal gain to a near 15-month high of 111.11 (Asia), subsequent retreat to 110.70 on cross unwinding in yen suggests medium-term uptrend has made a temporary top and range trading is seen ahead of U.S. PCE data, above 111.11 would extend marginal gain, however, loss of momentum should cap price below daily res at 111.71.

A daily close below 110.67 would risk stronger retracement towards 110.22 but this week's low at 109.72 (Mon) should remain intact.

T.G.I.F., U.S. will release a raft of eco. data which which definitely cause intra-day price swings n in addition, we have a total of 4 Fed officials scheduled to speak in New York session, please refer to our EI page for details.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Jun 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 28 Jun 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1937
Euro's intra-day retreat from 1.1975 to 1.1927 in hectic New York trading due to broad-based rebound in usd in tandem with rally in U.S. yields suggests correction from Jun's 2-1/2 month trough at 1.1848 has possibly ended and consolidation with downside bias is seen, below 1.1882 would head back towards 1.1848 later this week.

Only a daily close above 1.1975 risks stronger retracement of recent decline, however, 'loss of upward momentum' should cap price below res at 1.2006 and yield retreat.

On the data front, the only eco.data due out is German import prices. We have a number of ECB members scheduled to speak, pls refer to our EI page for details. Pay attention to speech by ECB Vice President de Guindos at the EURO FINANCE Summit in Frankfurt at 14:00GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Jun 28: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 28 Jun 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.74
Although dollar's fall from last Thursday's near 15-month peak at 111.11 to 110.49 Friday suggests medium term upmove has made a temporary top, subsequent strong rebound to 110.87, then intra-day sideways swings would bring consolidation before prospect of another rise, above 111.11 would extend to 111.47, however, loss of momentum should cap price below 111.71.

On the downside, only below 110.49 risks weakness to 110.22, then possibly 110.03/08.

G7 economic data to be released later today:
U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.
 

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Jun 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 29 Jun 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1925
Euro's retreat from 1.1975 (Fri) to 1.1903 yesterday strongly suggests early correction from Jun's 2-1/2 month trough at 1.1848 has ended there, however, subsequent rebound in New York on falling U.S. yields would bring sideways swings before another fall, however, reckon 1.1848 should remain intact.

On the upside, only a daily close above Mon's 1.1944 high prolongs consolidation and may head back towards 1.1975, loss of upward momentum would cap price below res at 1.2006.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Japan unemployment rate, retail sales.
France ILO unemployment rate, consumer confidence, UK nationwide house price, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence, Germany CPI, HICP.
U.S. redbook, monthly home price index, consumer confidence.
 

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Jun 29: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Jun 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.72
Although dollar's fall from last Thursday's near 15-month peak at 111.11 to 110.49 Friday, then 110.46 today suggests medium term upmove has made a temporary top, subsequent strong rebound to 110.87, then intra-day sideways swings would bring consolidation before prospect of another rise, above111.11 would extend to 111.47, however, loss of momentum should cap price below 111.71.

On the downside, only below 110.49 risks weakness to 110.22, then possibly 110.03/08.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data (please refer to our EI page for details) n we have Richmond Fed Barkin is scheduled to speak at 13:00GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Jun 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 30 Jun 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1903
Although euro's break of indicated sup at 1.1882 to 1.1879 yesterday suggests correction from June's 2-1/2 month trough at 1.1848 has ended, subsequent short-covering rebound due to intra-day selloff in U.S. yields would bring consolidation before prospect of another fall, 'loss of downward momentum' should keep price above 1.1805/10.

Only above 1.1939/44 res prolongs volatile trading above 1.1848 and may risk stronger gain to 1.1965/75.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
China NBS non-manufacturing PMI, NBS manufacturing PMI, New Zealand NBNZ business outlook, NBNZ own activity, Japan consumer confidence, construction orders, housing starts, industrial output.
Germany import prices, unemployment change, unemployment rate, Italy producer prices, CPI, Germany EU HICP.
U.K. BRC shop price index, GDP, current account, nationwide house price, France consumer spending, CPI, producer prices, Swiss KOF indicator, investor sentiment.
U.S. MBA mortgage app, ADP employment change, Chicago PMI, pending home sales and Canada GDP, producer prices.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Jun 30: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 30 Jun 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.50
Although dollar's fall from last Thursday's near 15-month peak at 111.11 to 110.49 Friday, then 110.46 today suggests medium term upmove has made a temporary top, subsequent strong rebound to 110.87, then intra-day sideways swings would bring consolidation before prospect of another rise, above 111.11 would extend to 111.47, however, loss of momentum should cap price below 111.71.

On the downside, only below 110.49 risks weakness to 110.22, then possibly 110.03/08.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details and pay attention to ADP private payrolls ahead of Friday's key jobs report, a higher-than-expected number (forecast is 600k) will lead to renewed usd buying. we also have fed's Bostic and Barkin scheduled to speak later today.
 

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx July 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1845
As euro has fallen after staging a short-covering rebound from Thursday's 11-week low of 1.1838 to 1.1884 (New York), suggesting recent decline is en route towards next chart obj. at 1.1786, however, reckon 2021 bottom at 1.1705 (March) should remain intact.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1884 signals temporary low is in place and risks stronger retracement towards 1.1944.

Data to be released on Friday:
Germany retail sales, France budget balance, EU producer prices.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, international trade balance, goods trade balance, durables ex-defense , durable goods, durables ex-transport, factory orders, Canada building permits, trade balance, exports, imports and Markit manufacturing PMI.
 

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx July 02: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 02 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 111.48
The greenback's rise above June's near 15-month peak at 111.11 on cross-selling in jpy to 111.65 in Asia today suggests Medium Term upmove has once again resumed and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 111.60/70, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 111.80/90 and yield a much-needed correction early next week.

On the downside, only below 110.75 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 110.43 but 109.95/00 should remain intact.

T.G.I.F., market waits U.S. June non-farm payrolls and unemployment, we also have a slew of other eco. data but these will be largely overlooked by traders, please refer to our EI page for details.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx July 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 05 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1858
Despite resumption of recent decline to a fresh 2-1/2 month trough of 1.1808 in post-NFP New York, intra-day rebound to 1.1874 due to broad-based long liquidation in the greenback suggests temporary low is made and 1-2 days of consolidation is in store, as long as res at 1.1909/11 holds, downside bias remains, below 1.1838 would bring re-test of 1.1808.

Only a daily close above 1.1911 would risk stronger correction towards 1.1944, however, reckon key res at 1.1975 should cap upside.

Data to be released later:
Australia AIG construction index, services PMI, building permits, retail sales, Japan services PMI, coincident index, leading indicator, China Caixin services PMI.
France industrial output, Markit services PMI, Italy Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, Sentix index, U.K. Markit services PMI.
U.S. market holiday on Monday.
 

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx July 05: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.85
Despite the greenback's rise to a fresh 15-month peak at 111.65 in Asia on Friday, subsequent selloff to 110.96 in hectic post-NFP trading on the back of soft U.S. unemployment data suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top there and intra-day break below aforesaid support would encourage stronger retracement to 110.40/43, however, support at 110.22 should contain downside and yield rebound later this week.

On the upside, only above 111.40/50 would indicate said pullback has ended instead and risk re-test of 111.65, break would extend to 111.90/00 later.

As today is Independence Day in the U.S., there is no release of U.S. eco. data. BOJ Gov. Kuroda will deliver a brief speech at the bank's quarterly regional branch managers' meeting.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx July 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 06 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1863
As 1.1880 yesterday has capped euro's rebound from last Friday's 11-week trough at 1.1808, consolidation with downside bias is in store, below 1.1808 would extend marginal weakness, however, loss of downward momentum would keep price above 1.1762/65.

Only a daily close above 1.1884 res may risk stronger retracement to 1.1909/11 but reckon res at 1.0944 should cap upside.

On the data front, germany will kick off with germany's industrial orders, then Zew eco. sentiment n current condition n later EU's retail sales n Zew survey expectations. We have a nu,ber of ECB officials scheduled to speak, pls refer to our EI page for details.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx July 06: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 06 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 1.1849
Despite the greenback's rise to a fresh 15-month peak at 111.65 in Asia on Friday, subsequent selloff to 110.96 in hectic post-NFP trading on the back of soft U.S. unemployment data suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top there and intra-day break below aforesaid support would encourage stronger retracement to 110.40/43, however, support at 110.22 should contain downside and yield rebound later this week.

On the upside, only above 111.40/50 would indicate said pullback has ended instead and risk re-test of 111.65, break would extend to 111.90/00 later.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand NZIER confidence, GDT price index, Japan all household spending, RBA rate decision.
Germany industrial orders, ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, U.K. Markit construction PMI, EU retail sales, ZEW survey expectations.
U.S. Markit services PMI and ISM non-manufacturing PMI.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx July 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 07 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1821
Euro's intra-day selloff from 1.1894 (Europe) due to broad-based usd's buying and subsequent re-test of last Friday's 11-week trough at 1.1808 in New York suggests recent decline would pressure price towards 1.1762 ahead of release of FOMC minutes, however, near term oversold condition should keep price well above 2021 bottom at 1.1705 (Mar).

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1852 signals temporary low is made and risks re-test of 1.1894, break would bring stronger retracement to 1.1909/11 and possibly towards 1.1944.

On the data front, we have some second-tier eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details. ECB Chair of the Supervisory Board Enria will at an event at 07:30GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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74
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AceTraderFx July 07: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.69
Despite the greenback's rise to a fresh 15-month peak at 111.65 in Asia on Friday, subsequent selloff to 110.96 in hectic post-NFP trading on the back of soft U.S. unemployment data suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top there and intra-day break below aforesaid support would encourage stronger retracement to 110.40/43, however, support at 110.22 should contain downside and yield rebound later this week.

On the upside, only above 111.40/50 would indicate said pullback has ended instead and risk re-test of 111.65, break would extend to 111.90/00 later.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia AIG services index.
Germany industrial output, U.K. Halifax house prices, France current account, trade balance, imports, exports, Italy retail sales.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, redbook, JOLTUS job openings and Canada Ivey PM.