AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx July 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 08 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1792
Euro's break of last week's low at 1.1808 (Friday) to a 3-month trough at 1.1782 in New York confirms recent decline has once again resumed and as long as 1.1838 holds, further weakness is envisaged after consolidation, however, 'loss of downward momentum' should keep price well above 2021 bottom at 1.1705 and risk has increased for a correction to occur later today or tomorrow.

On the upside, a daily close above 1.1838 signals temporary low is in place and would head to 1.1852/56, break, 1.1880/90.

On the data front, we have Germany's export n imports, trader balance n current account. ECB member de Cos will speak at a conference at 10:35GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx July 08: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.86
The greenback's intra-day selloff below yesterday's low at 110.40 on active safe-haven jpy buying due to selloff in global stocks and U.S. futures suggests decline from July's 15-month peak at 111.65 remains in progress and further weakness to 109.20/30 would be seen after consolidation, however, oversold condition would keep price above 109.00 and yield a much-needed correction later.

On the upside, only above 110.40 would indicate a temporary low has been made instead and risk would increase for a stronger retracement to 110.80/85.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Japan current account, trade balance, Eco watchers outlook, Eco watchers current.
U.K. RICS housing price balance, Swiss unemployment rate, Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account.
Canada leading index, housing starts, U.S. initial jobless claims and continuing jobless claims.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx July 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 09 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1847
Yesterday's impressive rally from 1.1784 (Asia) to as high as 1.1867 in New York signals recent decline has made a temporary low at Thur's 3-month trough at 1.1782 and as long as 1.1808 holds, consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 1.1894, reckon 1.1939/44 should hold.

Only a daily close below 1.1808 suggests correction has ended, then price will be en route to 1.1762 early next week.

The only eco. data due out is Italy's trade balance n industrial output. There is 3-day G20 finance ministers and central bankers meeting in Venice, Italy starting today, pay attention to comment by ECB officials esp speeches by ECB President Lagarde (pls refer to our EI page for details).
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx July 09: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.04
The greenback's intra-day selloff on Thursday below Wednesday's low at 110.40 to 109.54 on active safe-haven jpy buying due to selloff in global stocks and U.S. futures suggests decline from July's 15-month peak at 111.65 remains in progress and further weakness to 109.20/30 would be seen after consolidation, however, oversold condition would keep price above 109.00 and yield a much-needed correction later.

On the upside, only above 110.40 would indicate a temporary low has been made instead and risk would increase for a stronger retracement to 110.80/85.

Data to be released on Friday:
China PPI, CPI, U.K. GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance.
Italy industrial output, Canada employment change, unemployment rate.
U.S. wholesales inventories and wholesales sales.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx July 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 12 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1870
Euro's gain to 1.1881 in late New York Friday due to return of risk sentiment on rebound in global stocks suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low at last Thursday's 3-month trough at 1.1782 and re-test of last week's high at 1.1894 (Tuesday) is now envisaged, near term overbought condition would cap price below minor res at 1.1944 and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 1.1826 (Friday's low) signals correction is over and risks weakness towards 1.1808 later.

Data to be released later today:
New Zealand retail sales, Japan corporate goods price, machinery orders.
Canada leading index on Monday.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx July 12: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.12
Dollar's rally from last Thursday's 3-week trough at 109.54 to 110.27 in European morning today suggests first leg of correction from July's 15-month peak at 111.65 has ended and intra-day cross-inspired retreat in tandem with U.S. yields would bring consolidation before prospect of another rise, loss of upward momentum should cap price below res at 110.81.

Only a daily close below 109.86 signals recovery is over and extends said decline towards next daily chart objective at 109.20.

There is no eco. data due out in the U.S., however, we have NY Fed President Williams n Minneapolis Fed Present Kaskari speaking at 13:30GMT n 16:00GMT respectively.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx July 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 13 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1865
Euro's early rally from last Wednesday's 3-month trough of 1.1782 to 1.1881 (Friday) suggests recent decline has made a temporary low and despite retreat to 1.1837 at New York open on Monday, subsequent rebound has retained near term upside bias for a stronger retracement, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price below 1.1944.

On the downside, a daily close below 1.1826 signals correction has ended, then price would head back towards 1.1782 later this week.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
New Zealand food price index, Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence, China exports, imports, trade balance.
U.K BRC retail sales, Germany CPI, HICP, Swiss producer/import price, France CPI.
U.S. CPI, redbook and Federal budget.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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74
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www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx July 13: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.33
Dollar's rally from last Thursday's 3-week trough at 109.54 to 110.27 in European morning today suggests first leg of correction from July's 15-month peak at 111.65 has ended and intra-day cross-inspired retreat in tandem with U.S. yields would bring consolidation before prospect of another rise, loss of upward momentum should cap price below res at 110.81.

Only a daily close below 109.86 signals recovery is over and extends said decline towards next daily chart objective at 109.20.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
U.K. BRC retail sales, Germany CPI, HICP, Swiss producer/import price, France CPI.
U.S. CPI, redbook and Federal budget.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
3,986
7
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx July 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 14 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1775
Yesterday's break of previous July's 1.1782 low to 1.1773 following intra-day 'wild' swings in New York session suggests price is en route towards 2021 bottom at 1.1705 but break there needed to retain weakly bearishness for further losses later this week.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1837 signals temporary low is in place, then risk would shift to upside for stronger retracement of recent decline to 1.1880/90.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
China exports, imports, trade balance, Australia consumer sentiment, New Zealand RBNZ interest rate decision, Japan industrial output, capacity utilization.
U.K. CPI, RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, PPI core output, DCLG house price index, France market holiday, EU industrial production.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, PPI. Canada manufacturing sales and BoC interest rate decision.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
3,986
7
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx July 14: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 14 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.49
Dollar's rally from last Thur's 3-week trough at 109.54 to 110.69 in Asia today on the back of yesterday's release of robust U.S. inflation data suggests first leg of correction from Jul's 15-month peak at 111.65 has ended and gain to 110.90/95 would be seen after consolidation, loss of upward momentum should cap price below res at 111.18.

Only a daily close below 109.86 signals recovery is over and extends said decline towards next daily chart objective at 109.20.

After yesterday's market-moving U.S. CPI data, we have MBA mortgage applications and PPI, then later Fed's beige book. Traders are anxiously awaiting J.Powels semi-annual testimony at 16:00GMT (look out for release of his prepared text in New York morning) where he is expected to be grilled by U.S. lawmakers on his repeated comments on recent sharp rise in U.S. inflation is 'transitory'.
If he sounds anything less than dovish, then U.S. yields will jump n the greenback will do too ! Last and possibly the least, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will speak at 17:30GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
3,986
7
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx July 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 15 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1832
Despite yesterday's initial re-test of Tue's 3-month trough at 1.1773, subsequent rebound on intra-day falling U.S. yields and then gain to 1.1838 in New York following J. Powell's dovish testimony suggests recent decline has made a temporary low, as long as 1.1800 holds, stronger retracement is envisaged, reckon res at 1.1894 would cap upside.

A daily close below 1.1800 signals correction is over and price may yield weakness towards 2021 bottom at 1.1705 (March) next week.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Australia consumer inflation, employment change, unemployment change, China house prices, industrial output, retail sales, GDP, Japan tertiary industrial activity.
Germany wholesale price index, U.K. Claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, Italy CPI.
U.S. New York Fed manufacturing, import prices, export prices, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing index, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, NAHB market index and Canada ADP employment change.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
3,986
7
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx July 15: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 15 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.80
Despite dollar's rally from last Thur's 3-week trough at 109.54 to 110.69 in Asia yesterday, subsequent selloff to 109.94 yesterday on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish testimony and intra-day break below there suggests said correction has ended and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said support, break would extend recent decline to 109.30 before prospect of a rebound.

On the upside, only above 110.21 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 110.40, then 110.64.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details. Pay attention to another round of J. Powell's comments when he testifies at 13:30GMT on Capital Hill on the second day of his 2-day semi-annual testimony before the Congress. We also have Chicago Fed President Evans speaking at 15:00GMT
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
3,986
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74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx July 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 16 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1812
Euro's decline on Thursday from 1.1850 to 1.1793 in New York due to safe-haven usd and yen buying strongly suggests correction from Tuesday's 3-month low at 1.1773 has ended and recent erratic fall would resume after initial consolidation, however, loss of downward momentum should keep price well above 2021 bottom at 1.1705 (March) and bring minor correction.

On the upside, only above 1.1850 'prolongs' volatile trading above 1.1773 and risks stronger retracement, reckon res at 1.1994 should cap upside and yield retreat early next week.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our Economic Indicators page for details. Next week's major focus is Thursay's ECB monetary policy meeting and forward guidance which may pave the way for next euro's major move.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
3,986
7
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx July 16: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.14
Despite dollar's rally from last Thur's 3-week trough at 109.54 to 110.69 in Asia yesterday, subsequent selloff to 109.94 Wednesday on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish testimony, then 109.72 yesterday suggests said correction has ended and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said support, break would extend recent decline to 109.30 before prospect of a rebound.

On the upside, only above 110421 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 110.69.

Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, CPI, Japan interest rate decision, Italy trade balance, global trade balance, EU trade balance, HICP, Canada housing starts, wholesale trade, U.S. retail sales, business inventories and University of Michigan sentiment.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
3,986
7
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx July 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 19 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1810
Euro's weakness to 1.1793 Fri suggests correction from Tue's 3-month low at 1.1773 has ended at 1.1850 and despite recovery on cross-buying of euro vs sterling, outlook remains mildly bearish for re-test of said temporary low after consolidation, loss of downward momentum should keep price well above 2021 bottom at 1.1705.

Only a daily close above 1.1850 'prolongs' choppy consolidation and risks stronger retracement to 1.1875/80 later.

The only eco. data due out today is EU's construction output. The Bundesbank will repease its monthly report sometime in European morning.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
3,986
7
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx July 19: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.89
Despite dollar's rally from last July's 3-week trough at 109.54 to 110.69 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 109.94 Wednesday on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish testimony, then 109.72 Thursday suggests said correction has ended and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said support, break would extend recent decline to 109.30 before prospect of a rebound.

On the upside, only above 110421 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 110.69.

Data to be released today:
U.K. Rightmove house price, EU construction output.
U.S. NAHB housing market index on Monday.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
3,986
7
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx July 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 20 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1796
Despite Monday's resumption of recent decline to a fresh 3-month trough of 1.1765 at New York open, intra-day brief jump to 1.1824 on cross-buying vs sterling suggests temporary low is made and range trading is in store.

As long as 1.1775/80 holds, marginal gain is likely but reckon res at 1.1850 would cap upside. Below 1.1765 would extend marginal weakness, however, loss of momentum should keep price well above 2021 bottom at 1.1705.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Japan nationwid CPI.
Germany producer prices, Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, EU current account.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, rebook and New Zealand GDT price index.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
3,986
7
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx July 20: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 20 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.69
Despite dollar's rally from last July's 3-week trough at 109.54 to 110.69 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 109.94 Wednesday on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish testimony, then 109.72 Thursday suggests said correction has ended and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said support, break would extend recent decline to 109.30 before prospect of a rebound.

On the upside, only above 110421 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 110.69.

U.S. will later release buidling permits, housing starts n then redbook sales later today. Traders will take cue from movement in U.S. stocks n U.S. yields.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
3,986
7
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx July 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 21 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1780
Despite yesterday's marginal weakness to a fresh 3-month trough of 1.1756 in New York, subsequent rebound on intra-day rally in euro cross vs yen and chf due to risk sentiment on rise in U.S. yields and global stocks suggest range trading with initial upside bias would be seen but res at 1.1850 should cap upside.

Below 1.1756 would extend marginal weakness, however, loss of downward momentum would keep price well above 2021 bottom at 1.1705 ahead of Thursday's key ECB monetary policy announcement.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
Japan exports, imports, trade balance, Australia Westpac leading index, retail sales, U.K. PSNB, PSNCR, Italy industrial sales, U.S. Mortgage application and new housing price index.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
3,986
7
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx July 21: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.17
Despite dollar's selloff to a 7-week trough at 109.07 on Monday due to risk-averse buying in jpy, subsequent strong rebound to 109.95 yesterday and intra-day break above there suggests decline from July's peak at 111.65 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.34, however, resistance at 110.69 would remain intact and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 109.54 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 109.34 later this week.

U.S. eco. calendar is pretty light with second-tier MBA mortgage applications and new housing price index being the only data due out in New York morning. Therefore, traders will continue to take cue from intra-day moves in U.S. yields n U.S. stock futures until NY open.