AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Sept 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.16
Dollar's intra-day break of last Friday's top at 108.26 to a 6-week high of 108.36 (Asia) suggests recent upmove from August's 33-month trough at 104.46 has resumed and would head to 108.74 after consolidation before prospect of correction due to loss of momentum.

On the downside, only below 107.69 signals temporary top is made and yield stronger retracement to 107.48/53.

The Fed will start its 2-day FOMC meeting today and on the data front, we have Redbook sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, and NAHB housing market index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Sept 2019 06:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1071
Despite euro's decline from 1.1109 (Friday) to 1.0991 yesterday, subsequent rebound to 1.1074 in New York session due to broad-based liquidation of long usd positions ahead of FOMC's decision later today suggests price would 'gyrate' inside 1.0928-1.1109.

Only above 1.1109 would extend erratic rise from September's 27-month bottom at 1.0927 towards next daily chart objective at 1.1164 whilst below 1.0991 would pressure price back down to good sup at 1.0927/28.

On the data front, Italy will kick off with industrial order n sales then trade n good balance, the EU will release construction output, finaly HICP n core HICP. We have a number of ECB officials delivering speeches during the day, please refer to our EI section for details.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Sept 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.18
Dollar's retreat after yesterday's gain to a 6-week high at 108.36 suggests recent upmove from August's 33-month trough at 104.46 has made a temporary top and range trading would be seen before said rise extends to 109.03 but 109.31 would hold and yield correction.

On the downside, only below 107.92 would risk stronger retracement towards 107.69, then 107.48.

FOMC and subsequent J. Powell's press conference are the biggest events for the month. Market is pricing in for a 25 basis point rate cut but some are even expecting Fed to restart QE programme, if this does occur, then the greenback would be bashed down hard.
Until then, U.S. will release MBA mortgage applications, building permits n housing starts.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Sept 2019 05:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1029
Despite euro's decline from 1.1109 (Friday) to 1.0991 on Tuesday, subsequent rebound to 1.1075 ahead of Asian open yesterday and subsequent weakness to 1.1015 in post-FOMC New York following Fed's less-dovish cut suggests price would continue to 'gyrate' inside recent broad range of 1.0928-1.1109 with downside bias for weakness towards 1.0962.

Only above 1.1075 may risk gain towards 1.1109 but a break needed to extend erratic rise from September's 27-month bottom at 1.0927 towards next daily chart objective at 1.1164 next week.

On the data front, the only eco. data due out from the euro area countries is EU's current account. We have a number of ECB officials scheduled to speak in Europe and New York session, please refer to our EI section for details.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Sept 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.04
Despite dollar's rise to a fresh 6-week high at 108.47 in post FOMC New York, intra-day selloff to 107.80 (Asia) suggests temporary top is in place and subsequent rebound would yield consolidation before price head towards 107.69, however, 107.48 would hold and bring correction.

On the upside, only above 108.47 would risk gain to 108.74 before prospect of retreat due to loss of momentum.

Data to be released later:
Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, SNB interest rate decision, Germany wholesale price index, EU current account, UK retail sales, retail sales ex-fuel, BOE MPC vote hike, BOE MPC vote unchanged, BOE MPC vote cut, BOE interest rate decision, BOE QE total, BOE QE corp bond purchases.
And U.S. current account, initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing survey, existing home sales, leading index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Sept 2019 05:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1045
Euro's daily wild swings this week following early decline from last week's high at 1.1109 (Friday) to 1.0991 (Tuesday) suggests price would continue to 'gyrate' inside recent broad range of 1.0928-1.1109 with mild downside bias for weakness towards 1.0991 but 1.0962 would hold.

Only above 1.1075 may risk gain towards 1.1109 but a break needed to extend erratic rise from September's 27-month bottom at 1.0927 towards next daily chart objective at 1.1164 next week.

On the data front, Germany will release Aug PPI at 06:00GMT n later at 14:00, the EU will release Sep consumer confidence.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Sept 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.88
Despite dollar's rise to a fresh 6-week peak at 108.47 Wednesday, subsequent retreat to 107.78 (Europe) today suggests upmove from August's 33-month through at 104.46 has made a temporary top there and downside bias remains for weakness to 107.48 after consolidation but 107.19 would hold.

On the upside, only above 108.13 would indicate pullback has ended and yield re-test of 108.47, break would extend towards 108.74.

T.G.I.F., although no U.S. eco. data is due out today, pay attention to a number of scheduled speeches by Fed officials (please refer to our EI section for details) later today which may move the market.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Sept 2019 05:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1018
Euro's selloff from 1.1068 to 1.0997 on Friday suggests further choppy trading inside recent 1.0928-1.1109 broad range would be seen with downside bias, below 1.0986/91 would head towards 1.0962, break needed to yield re-test of September's 27-month trough at 1.0927.

On the upside, only above 1.1068/75 would extend gain to 1.1091, then 1.1109 again.

On the data front, today is PMI day in the euro area countries, France will kick off with Markit manufacturing and services PMIs, then the same from Germany and the EU plus monthly Buba monthly report. Pay attention to speeches by a number of ECB members including President Draghi (please see our EI section for details).

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Sept 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.52
Dollar's selloff from last Wednesday's fresh 6-week peak at 108.47 to 107.48 in Europe today on active safe-haven yen buying signals recent upmove from August's 33-month low at 104.46 has made a temporary top there and weakness towards 107.19 would be seen after consolidation but 106.93 may hold and bring correction.

On the upside, only above 107.78 would yield gain towards 108.13, then 108.47.

Data out later today:
France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI,.
U.S. national activity index, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI and Canada wholesale trade on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Sept 2019 05:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0994
Although yesterday's selloff in European morning from 1.1025 to 1.0967 due to downbeat German and EU's PMIs suggests euro's correction from September's fresh 27-month bottom at 1.0927 has ended earlier at 1.1109, below said 2019 bottom needed to extend downtrend towards projected downside target at 1.0865 later this week.

On the upside, above 1.1025 would 'prolong' recent choppy sideways swings and may head back to 1.1055/65 before prospect of another fall.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Japan leading economic index, coincident index, France business climate, Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, UK PSNB, PSNCR, CBI trend order and U.S. redbook, monthly home price, consumer confidence, Richmond Fed services, Richmond Fed manufacturing.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Sept 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.62
Although dollar's selloff from last Wednesday's 6-week high at 108.47 to 107.32 yesterday suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top there, subsequent rebound to 107.68 (Asia) today would yield consolidation before re-test of said support is seen after consolidation, break would extend to 107.32, then 107.19 but 106.93 may hold due to loss of momentum.

On the upside, only above 107.78 signals temporary low has made and risk gain to 108.13, then 108.47.
U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data starting with Philly Fed non-mfg business outlook survey, Redbook sales, monthly home price, CaseShiller home price, consumer confidence and Richmond Fed mfg index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Sept 2019 06:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1011
Despite euro's early erratic fall from 1.1109 to 1.0967 on Monday, yesterday's rebound to 1.1024 due to broad-based usd's weakness in New York session suggests further volatile trading above September's fresh 27-month bottom at 1.0927 would continue, above 1.1024/25 would yield stronger retracement towards 1.1075.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.0967 would signal said correction is over and bring subsequent weakness to 1.0927/32.

On the data front, economic calendar in the euro area is very thin with France's consumer confidence being the only data due out at 06:45GMT. We have ECB's Coeure and Lautenschlager speaking today.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Sept 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.27
Dollar's fall below Monday's low at 107.32 to 106.97 (NY) yesterday on active safe-haven yen buying due to U.S. President Trump's impeachment inquiry signals recent decline from September's 6-week high at 108.47 has resumed, subsequent rebound would bring range trading before prospect of another decline, below 106.97 would extend towards 106.67 but 106.33 should hold.

On the upside, only above 107.42 would yield gain towards 107.79, break, 108.02 later.

Data to be released later:
France consumer confidence, Swiss investor sentiment, UK BBA mortgage application, CBI distributive trades and U.S. MBA mortgage application, building permits, new home sales.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Sept 2019 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0953
Euro's weakness to 1.0938 on Wednesday due to renewed usd's strength vs its G7 peers suggests correction from September's fresh 27-month bottom at 1.0927 has ended earlier at 1.0109 and re-test of said 2019 low is envisaged, break there would extend recent downtrend towards next projected target at 1.0865 next week.

On the upside, only above 1.1000 'prolongs' recent daily wild swings, risks another rise to 1.1024/25, break there needed to turn outlook bullish for stronger gain to 1.1055/65.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Germany GfK consumer sentiment, Italy trade balance, U.S. GDP, GDP deflator, core PCE, PCE prices, good trade balance, wholesale inventories, initial jobless claims, pending home sales, KC Fed manufacturing and Canada average weekly earning.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Sept 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.68
Despite dollar's selloff to 106.97 Tuesday, subsequent rebound to 107.88 in New York yesterday suggests recent decline from last Wednesday's 6-week high at 108.47 has ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 108.20/30, but 108.47 would hold today.

On the downside, only below 107.42 signals correction has ended and bring re-test of 106.97.

BOJ Gov. Kuroda is due to speak at an annual meeting of securities firms in Tokyo at 06:30GMT. There will be a heavy data dump in U.S. session today, please refer to our EI section for details, pay particular attention to Q2 GDP data at 12:30GMT.
We also have a number of Fed officials scheduled to speak later today too.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Sept 2019 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0921
Euro's break of previous September's 1.0927 low to a fresh 27-month trough of 1.0910 on Thur confirms recent downtrend has finally resumed after 3 weeks of choppy swings and is en route towards projected target at 1.0865 after consolidation, loss of momentum should keep price above 2017 bottom at 1.1840.

On the upside, only a daily close above yesterday's 1.0967 high (New York) defers present bearish view and may risk stronger correction to 1.1105, however, reckon res at 1.1024/25 should cap recover and yield another leg of decline next week.

On the ecomomic calendar, there is a slew of data due out from the euro area countries, please refer to our EI section for details, any weaker-than-expected data will give euro bears excuse for bashing the single currency. We also have a number of ECB officials scheduled to speak during European morning.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Sept 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.87
Dollar's strong rebound from Tuesday's low at 106.97 to 107.95 (New York) yesterday suggests pullback from September's 6-week top at 108.47 has ended, and as price has rebounded after initial retreat to 107.66 (Asia), upside bias is retained for gain to 108.20/30 but 108.47 should hold.

On the downside , only below 107.43 signals recovery has ended instead and risk weakness toward 107.26, then 106.97.

Data to be released later:
France consumer spending, CPI (EU norm), CPI, producer prices, Italy MFG business confidence, consumer confidence, producer prices, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence.
U.S. personal income, personal spending, core PCE index, PCE price, durable goods, durables ex-transport, ex-defense, U. of Michigan sentiment and Canada budget balance.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Sept 2019 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0941
Despite euro's short-covering rebound to 1.0958 in New York on Friday after hitting a fresh 28-month trough of 1.0906 initially in Asia suggests minor consolidation would be seen before prospect of further weakness, loss of downward momentum is likely to keep price above projected sup at 1.0865.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0967 signals temporary low is in place and risks stronger correction towards 1.1005, however, reckon strong res at 1.1024/25 should cap upside.

We have data dump from the euro area countries in European morning, please refer to our Economic Indicator section for details, pay attention to release of German retail sales at 06:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Oct 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Oct 2019 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0939
Despite euro's resumption of medium term decline to a fresh 28-month trough of 1.0880 in Europe on Tuesday, subsequent rally to 1.0942 (New York) on usd's broad-based weakness suggests temporary low is in place and stronger retracement towards 1.0967 would be seen before prospect of another fall.

Below 1.0906/08 needed to bring re-test of 1.0880, break, 1.0840 later. Only above 1.1000/05 would risk gain towards 1.1025.

There is no eco. data due out from the euro area countries, however, one should keep an eye out for a speech by ECB Vice President de Guindos at a meeting organised by the ECB in FFT at 12:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Oct 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Oct 2019 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0960
Although euro's rebound from Tuesday's fresh 28-month trough at 1.0880 to 1.0963 (New York) yesterday's suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low and range trading is likely to continue ahead of release of Fri's key U.S. jobs data, a daily close above 1.0967 needed to bring stronger retarcement towards 1.1025.

Below 1.0905 anytime signals said correction has ended and would yield re-test of 1.0880, then later towards 1.0840.

Today is PMI day in the euro area countries (markets in Germany are closed), Italy will kick off with Markit services PMI, then the same from France, Germany n the EU, EU's producer prices, n retail sales. We also have ECB's Enria n ECB Vice Predident de Guindos speaking in European morning.