AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Aug 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Aug 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 106.17
Dollar's decline from Tuesday's 106.97 high to 105.66 Wednesday suggests first leg of correction from Monday's fresh 7-month trough at 105.06 has ended, yesterday's brief jump to 106.78 at European open and then fall to 105.71 would bring range trading before price heads to 105.80/90, and below 105.66 needed for 105.30/40.

On the upside, only above 106.97 would risk gain towards 107.09 but 107.27 should hold.

Data to be released later :
EU trade balance and U.S. building permits, housing starts, University of Michigan consumer sentiment.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Aug 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1090
Euro's last week's decline from 1.1230 to as low as 1.1067 on Friday suggests correction from August's fresh 2-year trough at 1.1028 has ended earlier at 1.1249 and subsequent short-covering rebound to 1.1106 in New York would bring consolidation before another fall, however, loss of momentum should keep price well above said 2019 bottom.

Only a daily close above 1.1131 signals temporary low is made and risks stronger retracement to 1.1158/63 but 1.1190 should cap upside.

On the data front, the EU will release a slew of data starting with current account, HICP and core HICP.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Aug 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20Aug 2019 05:30 GMT

Euro's fall from 1.1113 (Europe) yesterday to 1.1077 as the greenback regained traction in New York session suggests recovery from Friday's 2-week low at 1.1067 has ended and recent decline would head to 1.1040/50 after consolidation, loss of downward momentum is likely to keep price above Aug's fresh 2-year bottom at 1.1028 and bring rebound later today or tomorrow.

Only a daily close above 1.1113 signals temporary low is made and risk stronger retracement of recent erratic fall from 1.1249 to 1.1158, break, 1.1180/90.

Data to be released Tuesday:
Germany PPI, Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, EU construction output, UK CBI trend order.
Canada manufacturing sales and U.S. redbook, Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing business outlook survey.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Aug 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Aug 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 106.46
Although dollar's retreat from last Tuesday's 106.97 high to 105.66 Wed suggests correction from last Monday's fresh 7-month trough at 105.06 has ended, subsequent daily wild swings would bring range trading before prospect of another fall to 105.66/71.

On the upside, only above 106.78 would risk re-test of 106.97, break would extend gain towards 107.09, then 107.27.

U.S. will later release Philly Fed non-manufacturing business outlook survey at 12:30GMT, then Redbook sales at 12:55GMT. Intra-day traders are expected to ignore these 2nd-tier data and will take cue from intra-day move in U.S. yields n stocks.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Aug 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 21 Aug 2019 06:00 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1095
Although yesterday's rebound after falling one tick below last Fri's 1.1067 low to a 2-1/2 week trough of 1.1066 suggests recent decline from 1.1249 has made a temporary bottom and initial range trading is envisaged, as long as 1.1131 holds, marginal weakness is likely, loss of downward momentum should keep price above Aug's fresh 2-year low at 1.1028.

A daily close above 1.1131 would shift risk to the upside for stronger retracement of aforesaid fall to 1.1158, then later 1.1180/90.

No economic data is due out from the euro area countries, so order flows or news headlines will have greater influence on price moves. U.K. PM Johnson will meet with German Chancellor Merkel for Brexit talk later today, so one can expect eur/gbp cross to swing around on Brexit news.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Aug 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 21 Aug 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 106.55
Dollar's daily wild swings in the past week following rebound from last Mon's fresh 7-month trough at 105.06 to 106.97 last Tue are expected to continue, yesterday's rebound from 106.17 (New York) and intra-day strength suggests range trading would be seen before price head towards 105.66.

Only above 106.69 may risk gain to 106.97, break would extend said upmove towards 107.20/27 before retreat.

Data to be released later:
UK PSNB, PSNCR, U.S. existing home sales, MBA mortgage applications.
Canada CPI, CPI BOC core, CPI, core CPI.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Aug 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1088
Although euro's rebound from Tuesday's 2-week low at 1.1066 to 1.1107 yesterday suggests recent decline from 1.1249 has made a temporary low and range trading is expected, as long as 1.1131 (previous sup, now res) holds, marginal weakness is likely, loss of downward momentum should keep price well above August's 2-year bottom at 1.1028 and yield strong retracement of aforesaid fall later.

Only above 1.1131 would risk stronger retracement to 1.1158/63 but reckon 1.1190 should remain intact.

On the data front, today is PMI day in the euro area countries, pay attention to release of France's Markit preliminary mfg and services PMIs, then the same from Germany and the EU.
Then ECB minutes at 12:30GMT and later consumer confidence at 14:00GMT. We also have ECB's ECB's Coeure, Lane and Lautenschlager speaking at the annual Jackson Hole symposium.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Aug 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Aug 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 106.45
Although dollar's sideways swings following early rebound from last Monday's fresh 7-month trough at 105.06 to 106.97 last Tuesday are expected to continue, Monday's retreat from 106.69 to 106.17 on Tuesday would bring range trading before price head towards 105.66 before prospect of rebound.

On the upside, only above 106.97 would risk further gain to 107.09 but 107.57 should hold, yield correction.

Ahead of Friday's J. Powell's speech, pay attention to release of U.S. eco. data later in the day starting with initial weekly jobless claims, Markit mfg and services PMIs and Kansas City mfg index.
Also we have Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (2019 non-voter and a dove) speaking at 18:30GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Aug 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1081
Despite yesterday's cable-led brief bounce from a near 3-week low at 1.1064, as long as this week's high at 1.1113 (Tuesday) holds, downside bias remains for weakness towards August's 2-year bottom at 1.1028 (less dovish speech at Jackson Hole by Fed's Powell perhaps), a break there needed to extend recent downtrend to next projected downside target at 1.0975 next week.

On the upside, a daily close above 1.1131 (previous sup, now res) confirms temporary low is made and risk would shift to upside for stronger retracement to 1.1158, then 1.1180/90.

After yesterday's data dump on euro area's PMIs, no economic data is due out, so all eyes are on J. Powell's speech.
 
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AceTraderFx Aug 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1081
Despite yesterday's cable-led brief bounce from a near 3-week low at 1.1064, as long as this week's high at 1.1113 (Tuesday) holds, downside bias remains for weakness towards August's 2-year bottom at 1.1028 (less dovish speech at Jackson Hole by Fed's Powell perhaps), a break there needed to extend recent downtrend to next projected downside target at 1.0975 next week.

On the upside, a daily close above 1.1131 (previous sup, now res) confirms temporary low is made and risk would shift to upside for stronger retracement to 1.1158, then 1.1180/90.

After yesterday's data dump on euro area's PMIs, no economic data is due out, so all eyes are on J. Powell's speech.
Lovely info thanks
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Aug 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Aug 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 106.63
Although dollar's retreat from last Tuesday's 106.97 high to 105.66 (Wednesday) suggests correction from August's 7-month trough at 105.06 has ended there, subsequent brief spike up to 106.78 last Thursday, and then retreat to 106.17 Tuesday would yield further choppy trading before prospect of another fall, below 106.17 would bring weakness to 105.66/71.

On the upside, above 106.69 would risk re-test of 106.97, where break would extend aforesaid rise to 107.09, then 107.47/57.

T.G.I. F. for Asian traders, ahead of Powell's speech, we have several Fed officials speaking at various times (see our EI section for details) n the only U.S. data due out at the same time when Powell begins to speak is new home sales for Jul.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Aug 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1144
Despite euro's fall to a 3-week bottom at 1.1052 on Fri, subsequent rally to 1.1153 in New York on escalation in U.S.-China trade war, then to 1.1164 today suggests volatile trading above August's 26-month trough at 1.1028 would continue with upside bias.

On the downside, only below 1.1099 would risk weakness to 1.1064/67 before prospect of rebound.

Today is the final day of the 3-day G7 leaders' summit in France. On the data front, pay attention to release of key German Ifo business climate, current conditions and expectations, street forecasts are looking for weaker readings from previous readings due to recent recessions fears in Germany, however, euro bulls should buy eur/usd on dips.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Aug 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Aug 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 105.78
Despite dollar's intra-day gap-down open and then break of January's 104.79 low to a 33-month bottom at 104.46 in New Zealand on escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions, price rallied to 105.79 in Asian morning, then 105.95 in European morning following U.S. President Trump's comments suggests temporary low is made and stronger retracement to 106.26 may be seen.

On the downside, only below 105.17/20 would indicate recovery has ended instead, yield 104.79, then possibly 104.46 again.

Data to be released later:
Germany Ifo business climate, current conditions, expectations, U.S. durable goods, Chicago national activity and Dallas Fed manufacturing index on Monday.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Aug 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1103
Although euro's impressive rally from 1.1052 to 1.1153 last Fri in New York session suggests further volatile trading above August's 26-month bottom at 1.1028 would continue, yesterday's decline from 1.1164 to 1.1095 on easing of Sino-U.S. tensions signal choppy sideways swings are in store, reckon 1.1064/67 sup would contain weakness and bring rebound.

On the upside, only above 1.1164 would extend said near term rise marginally higher, loss of upward momentum should cap price at 1.1200/10.

On the data front, Germany will release Q2 GDP n then France will release business climate n consumer confidence, if actual reading come in weaker than street forecast, expect euro to come under renewed selling but downside is likely to be limited. ECB's Vice-President de Guindos will make a speech at the Annual Congress of the European Economic Association. in Manchester, U.K. at 13:00GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Aug 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Aug 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 105.66
Yesterday's rally from a 33-month trough at 104.46 to 106.41 (New York) suggests medium term decline has made a temporary bottom there, subsequent retreat signals first leg of correction has ended and mild downside bias would be seen before prospect of another rise later.

Only above 106.41 would extend said upmove to 106.73/78 but 106.97 should remain intact and yield retreat.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Germany GDP, France business climate, consumer confidence, UK BBA mortgage approvals, U.S. redbook, monthly home price, CS home price, consumer confidence and Richmond Fed manufacturing.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Aug 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 28 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1091
Euro's decline from 1.1164 (Mon) to 1.1087 yesterday due to selling in eur/gbp cross suggests near term upmove from Friday's 3-week trough at 1.1052 has made a top there and consolidation with initial downside bias is seen, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.1064/67 and bring rebound.

On the upside, a daily close above 1.1115 signals pullback from 1.1164 is over and may head back towards said res level later this week.

On the data front, Germany will kick off with GfK consumer confidence and import prices, then Italy's business and consumer confidence.
 

AceTRaderForex

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Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 28 Aug 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 105.76
Despite Mon's initial fall to a 33-month trough at 104.46, subsequent rally to 106.41 on easing U.S.-China tension suggests medium decline has made a temporary low there, Tue's retreat to 105.60 signals first leg of correction has ended and mild downside bias would be seen before prospect of another rise.

On the upside, only above 106.16 would risk gain towards 106.41 but 106.73/78 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
UK BRC retail sales, Australia construction work done, Germany GfK consumer sentiment, import prices, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence, Swiss investor sentiment and U.S. MBA mortgage applications.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
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AceTraderFx Aug 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1086
Euro's impressive rally from 1.1052 last Friday to as high as 1.1164 on Monday suggests further volatile trading above August's 26-month bottom at 1.1028 would continue, despite subsequent strong retreat, as 1.1074 has contained weakness yesterday, consolidation with upside bias is retained, above 1.1115 may head back towards 1.1164.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1074 dampens mildly bullish outlook and risks decline towards 1.1052, break would yield weakness to 1.1028.

On the economic calendar, the euro area countries will release a raft of eco. data, please refer to our EI section for details.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Aug 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Aug 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 106.09
Despite dollar's initial fall to a 33-month trough at 104.46 on Monday, subsequent rise to 106.41 suggests medium term decline has made a temporary low and Tuesday's retreat to 105.60 signals first leg of correction has ended and range trading would be seen before prospect of another upmove.

Only below 105.60 would risk weakness to 105.41/44, break may extend towards 105.21.

Data to be released later:
Swiss non-farm payrolls, France consumer spending, GDP, Germany unemployment change, unemployment rate, CPI, HICP, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, PPI, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence.
Canada current account, average weekly earnings, and U.S. GDP, PCE, wholesale inventories, initial jobless claims, trade balance, pending home sales.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Aug 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1053
Euro's break of last week's 1.1052 low to a 4-week trough at 1.1043 in New York on Thursday due to renewed usd's strength on easing of Sino-U.S. trade tensions suggests re-test of August's fresh 2-year bottom at 1.1028 would be forthcoming after initial consolidation, a break there would extend recent downtrend towards next projected downside target at 1.0975.

On the upside, only a move back above 1.1092/98 res prolongs recent 'volatile' broad sideways swings and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1130/40 next week.

Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand building permits, UK GfK consumer confidence, nationwide hose price, Japan Tokyo CPI, Tokyo core CPI, unemployment rate, industrial output, retail sales, housing starts, construction orders, Australia building permits.
Germany retail sales, France budget balance, CPI, producer prices, Swiss KOF indicator, Italy unemployment rate, CPI, GDP, EU HICP, unemployment rate.
U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE price index, core PCE price index, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan sentiment, and Canada GDP, producer prices.