AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Nov 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.98
Yesterday's selloff to 107.93 in New York on active safe-haven yen buying due to renewed U.S-China trade concern, then 107.90 in Asia today suggests decline from Wed's near 3-month peak at 109.28 would extend to 107.30/40 after consolidation, however, 106.94/04 should hold and yield correction.

On the upside, only above 108.50/59 would risk gain toward 108.75/80 before prospect of retreat.

U.S. will later release the blockbuster U.S. NFP, unemployment rate, average wage earnings, then Markit mfg PMI, construction spending, ISM mfg PMI. We have a number of Fed officials speaking during NY session after recent Fed blackout ahead of the FOMC, see EI section for details of their scheduled speeches.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Nov 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.37
Dollar's selloff from last Wednesday's high at 109.28 to last Friday's 2-week low at 107.90 suggests upmove from August's 33-month bottom 104.46 has made a temporary top there, subsequent rebound would bring choppy trading before prospect of another fall, below 107.90 would extend to 107.40/45 but 107.04 may hold.

On the upside, only above 108.50 would risk gain towards 108.78, then possibly 109.28.

U.S. had moved its clock one hour back to winter time over the w/end. On the data front, we have ISM New York index, durable goods order and factory orders.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Nov 2019 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1130
The single currency's selloff from yesterday's high at 1.1175 and subsequent break of previous support at 1.1129 to 1.1122 today suggests further choppy trading below October's 2-month peak at 1.1179 would continue with downside bias and weakness to 1.1103, then 1.1081/85 would be seen, however, oversold condition would keep price above reaction low at 1.1074 and yield rebound later.

On the upside, only above 1.1175/79 would revive bullishness for stronger gain to 1.1223 before prospect of a correction later this week.

Pay attention to the release of EU PPI mm and yy at 10:00GMT. Street forecasts are 0.1% and -1.2% vs previous readings of -0.5% and -0.8% respectively.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Nov 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.82
Despite dollar's retreat to 107.90 in Asia on Friday, subsequent rebound signals pullback from last Wednesday's near 3-month high at 109.28 has ended and consolidation with upside bias for gain towards 109.06, break would bring re-test of said resistance later this week.

On the downside, only below 108.32 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk weakness to 107.90, then 107.76.

Data to be released later:
UK BRC retail sales, Markit services PMI, EU producer prices.
Canada trade balance, exports, imports, and U.S. redbook, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, JOLTS job openings.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Nov 2019 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1071
The single currency's selloff from yesterday's high at 1.1140 and subsequent break of previous support at 1.1074 to 1.1064 suggests decline from October's 2-month peak at 1.1179 has once again resumed and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 1.1020/23, however, oversold condition would keep price above 1.0990/00 and yield correction later.

On the upside, only above 1.1175/79 would revive bullishness for stronger gain to 1.1223 before prospect of a correction later this week.

There is a slew of data from the eurozone today. Pay particular attention to the release of services PMIs from Germany, France and EU and EU retail sales.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Nov 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.03
Despite dollar's fall from last Wednesday's high at 109.28 to Friday's trough at 107.90, subsequent rebound to 109.24 yesterday suggests pullback has ended there and intra-day retreat would bring consolidation before another rise for re-test of said resistance, break would extend upmove from 104.46 towards 109.77 but 109.93 should hold and yield correction.

On the downside, only below 108.55 would signal a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 108.32.

There are a couple of Fed speakers today. Chicago Fed President Evans will speak at 13:00GMT and NY Fed President Williams will participate in a discussion at the "Future of Workforce" event at 14:30GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Nov 2019 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1068
The single currency's selloff from Tuesday's high at 1.1140 and subsequent break of previous support at 1.1074 to 1.1064 the same day suggests decline from October's 2-month peak at 1.1179 has once again resumed and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 1.1020/23, however, oversold condition would keep price above 1.0990/00 and yield correction later.

On the upside, only above 1.1175/79 would revive bullishness for stronger gain to 1.1

Pay attention to the release of German industrial production mm and yy at 07:00GMT. Street forecasts are -0.4% and 2.9% vs previous readings of 0.3% and -3.7% respectively.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Nov 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.96
Despite dollar's fall from Tuesday's 109.24 high to 108.83 yesterday, then to 108.66 in Asia today, subsequent jump to 109.12 in Europe on positive U.S.-China trade news suggests pullback has ended and range trading would be seen before upmove from August's 33-month trough at 104.46 resumes and extends to 109.65/70.

On the downside, only below 108.66 would risk weakness to 108.32, then 107.90.

Pay attention to the release of U.S. jobless claims at 13:30GMT. Street forecast is 215K vs previous reading of 218K.
Elsewhere, Dallas Fed President will participate in a question-and-answer session at the Dallas Regional Chamber of Commerce at 18:05GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Nov 2019 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1049
The single currency's selloff to a 3-week trough at 1.1037 yesterday on dollar's broad-based strength suggests decline from October's 2-month peak at 1.1179 has once again resumed and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 1.1020/23, however, oversold condition would keep price above 1.0990/00 and yield correction later.

On the upside, only above 1.1175/79 would revive bullishness for stronger gain to 1.1223 before prospect of a correction later this week.

There is a slew of German trade data to be released at 07:00GMT and French data at 07:45GMT. Pay particular attention to German imports and exports. Street forecasts are 0.0% and 0.4% vs prev. readings of 0.5% and -1.8% respectively.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Nov 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.28
Dollar's firm break of October's high at 109.28 to a 5-month top at 109.48 (New York) yesterday on rising U.S. yields signals upmove from August's 33-month trough at 104.46 has resumed and gain towards 109.93 would be seen after consolidation but 110.00 should hold due to loss of upward momentum.

On the downside, only below 108.83 suggests temporary top has been made and risks weakness to 108.66, break, 108.32.

Data to be released on Friday :
Swiss unemployment rate, Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account, France current account, industrial output, non-farm payrolls, trade balance, imports, exports.
Canada housing starts, building permits, employment change, unemployment rate, and U.S. University of Michigan sentiment, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Nov 2019 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1022
The single currency's fall to a 3-week trough at 1.1037 last Thursday, then to 1.1017 last Friday suggests decline from October's 2-month peak at 1.1179 has once again resumed and stronger retracement of upmove from 1.0880 to 1.0980/90 would be seen. However, loss of momentum would keep price above support at 1.0942 and yield a correction later this week.

On the upside, only above 1.1074 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger gain to 1.1091 before prospect of retreat.

As there is no major economic data being released from the eurozone today, pay attention to Chair of ECB supervisory board Andrea Enria's speech at the 20th Handelsblatt annual conference at 09:30GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Nov 2019 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1034
The single currency's fall to a 3-week trough at 1.1017 last Friday suggests decline from October's 2-month peak at 1.1179 has once again resumed and yesterday's rebound would yield consolidation before stronger retracement of upmove from 1.0880 to 1.0980/90 would be seen. However, loss of momentum would keep price above support at 1.0942 and yield a correction later this week.

On the upside, only above 1.1074 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger gain to 1.1091 before prospect of retreat.

Pay attention to the release of German ZEW economic sentiment and current conditions at 10:00GMT. Street forecasts are -13.0 and -22.0 vs previous readings of -22.8 and -25.3 respectively.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 12: Daily Recommendations on Major - USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Nov 2019 09:53 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.25
Although dollar's fall from Thursday's 5-month high at 109.48 to 108.90 yesterday suggests upmove from Aug's 33-month trough at 104.46 has made a temporary top, subsequent rebound has retained bullishness for marginal gain, however, 109.93 should remain intact and yield retreat.

On the downside, below 108.90 would risk stronger retracement towards 108.66 before prospect of another rise.

Pay attention to the release of German ZEW economic sentiment and current conditions at 10:00GMT. Street forecasts are -13.0 and -22.0 vs previous readings of -22.8 and -25.3 respectively.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Nov 2019 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1015
The single currency's fall to a 4-week trough at 1.1003 yesterday on cross-selling in euro suggests decline from October's 2-month peak at 1.1179 has once again resumed and stronger retracement of upmove from 1.0880 to 1.0980/90 would be seen. However, loss of momentum would keep price above support at 1.0942 and yield a correction later this week.

On the upside, only above 1.1074 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger gain to 1.1091 before prospect of retreat.

Pay attention to the release of EU industrial production at 10:00GMT.
Street forecasts for mm and yy are -0.3% and -2.3% vs previous readings of 0.4% and -2.8% respectively.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 13: Daily Recommendations on Major - USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Nov 2019 09:53 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.13
Despite dollar's retreat from last Thursday's 5-month high at 109.48 to 108.88 (Asia) today, subsequent rebound signals pullback has possibly ended and consolidation with upside bias would be seen for re-test of 108.48, break would extend upmove from 104.46 (Aug) to 109.60/65 but 109.93 should hold and bring correction.

On the downside, only below 108.88 would risk weakness towards 108.66 which should hold on first testing.

Market focus is now on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony before the congressional Joint Economic Committee at 16:00GMT. Traders should be on the lookout for comments on whether the central bank is looking at additional rate cuts after Trump's comments late last night.
Also pay attention to the release of U.S. CPI mm and yy at 13:30GMT. Street forecasts are 0.3% and 1.7% vs previous readings of 0.0% and 1.7% respectively.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Nov 2019 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1007
The single currency's fall to a 4-week trough at 1.0996 yesterday on risk aversion suggests decline from October's 2-month peak at 1.1179 has once again resumed and stronger retracement of upmove from 1.0880 to 1.0965/68 would be seen.
However, loss of momentum would keep price above support at 1.0942 and yield a correction later this week.

On the upside, only above 1.1074 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger gain to 1.1091 before prospect of retreat.

Pay attention to the release of EU GDP qq and yy for Q3 at 10:00GMT. Street forecasts are for unchanged readings at 0.2% and 1.1% respectively.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 14: Daily Recommendations on Major - USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Nov 2019 09:53 GMT

USD/JPY - 108.69
Despite dollar's rebound to 109.14 in Europe yesterday, subsequent fall to 108.66 in New York, then marginally lower to 108.64 in Asia today on U.S.-China trade concerns suggests decline from last Thursday's 5-month high at 109.48 has resumed and marginal weakness is seen, however, 108.32 would hold and yield rebound.

On the upside, only above 109.14 signals said pullback has ended and risks stronger gain to 109.29, then 109.48 again.

There are a slew of speakers from the Federal Reserve due to speak today. Pay particular attention to Fed Vice Chair Clarida's speech on the Fed's review of its monetary policy strategy at the Cato Institute's 37th Annual Monetary Conference at 14:10GMT. U.S. will also release its jobless claims at 13:30GMT. Street forecast is 215k vs previous reading of 211k.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Nov 2019 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1026
Despite the single currency's fall to a 1-month trough at 1.0990 yesterday, subsequent strong rebound to 1.0027 in New York on dollar's broad-based weakness suggests recent decline from October's 2-month peak at 1.1179 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 1.1043, then 1.1074 before prospect of retreat early next week.

On the downside, only below 1.0990 would revive bearishness for weakness to 1.0968 but loss of momentum would keep price above support at 1.0942, yield rebound.

There is a slew of data to be released from the eurozone at 10:00GMT, including Italy inflation, EU trade balance and HICP. One should also pay attention to ECB board member Yves Mersch's speech at 08:00GMT at an event organised by the European Society for Banking and Financial Law in Paris.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 15: Daily Recommendations on Major - USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Nov 2019 09:50 GMT

USD/JPY - 108.50
Despite dollar's retreat to 108.25 in New York afternoon on US-China trade concerns following FT report together with Trump impeachment inquiry news, subsequent rebound in Asia today on positive US-China trade comments from White House Adviser Kudlow suggests decline from November's 5-month peak at 109.48 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 108.86, then 109.14, 109.29.

On the downside, only below 108.25 would revive bearishness for weakness towards daily support at 107.90 but 107.63 should hold and yield correction later.

There is a slew of data to be released from the U.S. today and one should pay particular attention to retail sales mm and retail sales ex-autos at 13:30GMT. Street forecasts are for an increase of 0.2% and 0.4% vs previous readings of -0.3% and -0.1% respectively.
 

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Nov 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Nov 2019 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1052
Despite the single currency's fall to a 1-month trough at 1.0990 last Thursday, subsequent strong rebound to 1.1057 on Friday on improved risk appetite suggests recent decline from October's 2-month peak at 1.1179 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 1.1074 before prospect of retreat later this week.

On the downside, only below 1.0990 would revive bearishness for weakness to 1.0968 but loss of momentum would keep price above support at 1.0942, yield rebound.

In the absence of data from EU today, pay attention to the Bundesbank's monthly report at 10:00GMT. Also pay attention to remarks from ECB's Chief Economist Philip Lane, who will give an on-stage interview at the Fortune Global Forum in Frankfurt at 13:00GMT.