AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Aug 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Aug 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 106.52
Although dollar's break of Moday's 106.41 high to 106.67 on Thursday due to easing U.S.-China trade tension suggests recent upmove from Monday's 33-month trough at 104.46 has once again resumed, subsequent retreat would bring range trading before price heads to 107.00/09.

On the downside, only below 106.20/22 would indicate temporary top is in place and yield retracement to 105.60/65.

T.G.I.F. after a tumultuous week, however, European n N. American traders must pay attention to release of key U.S. data later today starting with Fed's preferred inflation guage core PCE price index, PCE index, personal income n personal spending at 12:30GMT, then Chicago PMI and then University of Michigan consumer confidence. Therefore, one can expect a lot of volatility in New York morning trading, good luck.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Sept 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Sept 2019 05:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0988
Euro's selloff on Friday and then break of previous August's 1.1028 low (now res) to a fresh 27-month trough at 1.0964 (New York) suggests medium term decline has once again resumed, subsequent rebound would bring range trading before price heads toward 1.0935, however, oversold condition should keep the pair above 1.0900/10.

On the upside, only above 1.1028 would indicate temporary trough made and yield stronger retracement to 1.1060, then 1.1092.

Today is PMI day in the euro area countries, Italy will kick off with Markit mfg PMI, then the same from France, Germany n the EU. We have several ECB officials schedued to speak at the ECB Legal Conference 2019 "Building bridges- central banking law in an interconnected world" in Frankfurt, please refer to our EI section for details.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Sept 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Sept 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 106.26
Despite dollar's resumption of upmove from last Monday's 33-month trough at 104.46 to 106.67 on Thur, subsequent retreat to 106.11 Fri, then lower to 105.93 today suggests first leg of correction has ended and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 105.60/66 but 105.44 should remain intact.

On the upside, only above 106.67 would risk gain towards 106.97 before prospect of retreat.

Data to be released later:
Swiss retail sales, manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, UK Markit manufacturing PMI.
Canada market holiday and U.S. market holiday on Monday.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Sept 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Sept 2019 05:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0957
Despite resumption of downtrend marginally to a fresh 27-month trough of 1.0958 in European morning yesterday, near term loss of downward momentum is expected to prevent steep fall and reckon 1.0900/10 would remain intact and bring minor correction before prospect of further decline later.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1028 (prev. Aug's low, now res) signals temporary low is made and may risk stronger retracement towards 1.1060 before retreat.

On the data front, the EU will release July PPI and ECB's nominated President Largarde will speak at 07:00GMT, then ECB's Enria will speak at ECB's Legal Conference at 11:30GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Sept 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Sept 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 106.06
Despite dollar's rally from last Mon's 33-month trough at 104.46 to 106.67 on Thursday, subsequent fall to 105.93 on Monday suggests first leg of correction has ended and intra-day fall from 106.38 (Asia) has retained bearishness for weakness towards 105.60 but 105.44 should hold.

On the upside, only above 106.40/45 would yield 106.67/73, break, 106.97 later.

U.S. financial markets will return after yesterday's Labor Day holiday and will release a slew of eco. data starting with Markit mfg PMI, construction spending and ISM-mfg PMI.
We have Boston Fed President Rosengren (2019 FOMC voter, a centrist) speaking on the economy at an event hosted by a business school at 21:00GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Sept 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Sept 2019 06:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0976
Although euro's rebound from Tuesday's fresh 27-month bottom at 1.0927 to 1.0978 in New York due to falling U.S. yields and downbeat U.S. factory data suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low, as long as 1.1028 (previous sup, now res) holds, one more fall to 1.0900/10 is likely before prospect of correction due to loss of downward momentum.

On the upside, only above 1.1028 confirms long-awaited retarcement has taken place, then risk would shift to the upside for stronger gain to 1.1050/60 later this week.

On the data front, France will kick off with Markit services PMI, then the same from France, Germany n the EU, then EU's retail sales.
We also have a number of ECB officials speaking in European morning and later in New York session, please refer to our EI page for details.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Sept 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Sept 2019 06:00 GMT

USD/JPY - 106.24
Dollar's resumption of decline from last Thursday's 106.67 high to 105.75 yesterday suggests first leg of correction from August's 33-month trough at 104.46 has ended and intra-day rebound would bring range trading before prospect of another fall, however, 105.30 sup should remain intact.

On the upside, only above 106.40/42 would extend gain towards 106.67/73.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Italy Markit services PMI, France Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, retail sales.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, good trade balance, redbook, ISM New York index and Canada trade balance, exports, imports, labour productivity rate, BoC interest rate decision.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Sept 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Sept 2019 05:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1035
Euro's rally above 1.1028 to 1.1038 yesterday due to continued usd's weakness suggests recent downtrend has made a low at Tuesday's 27-month bottom at 1.0927 and as long as 1.0978 (Tuesday's high, now sup) holds, stronger retracement towards 1.1092 is now envisaged, however, overbought condition should cap price below 1.1112 ahead of release of Fri's key U.S. jobs data.

On the downside, only below 1.0998 signals 1st leg of correction is over and may risk retracement towards 1.0978 before prospect of another rise.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Swiss GDP, Germany industrial orders and U.S. ADP employment change, initial jobless claims, labour costs prelim, productivity prelim, Markit manufacturing PMI, durable ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders, durable ex-transport, ISM manufacturing PMI.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Sept 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Sept 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 106.50
Dollar's intra-day rally in Asia and then break of last Thursday's 106.67 high to 106.75 suggests recent upmove from August's 33-month trough at 104.46 has once again resumed, subsequent pullback on retreat in U.S. yields would bring range trading before price head towards 107.09 but 107.49 should remain intact.

On the downside, only below 106.07/10 would indicate temporary top is made and yield 105.75.

Ahead of release of Fri's key U.S. jobs report, pay attention today on U.S. ADP private payrolls, initial weekly jobless claims, labor costs, non-farm productivity, Markit services PMI, durable goods and ISM non-mfg PMI.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Sept 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Sept 2019 05:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1034
Although euro's impressive rally from Tuesday's 27-month bottom at 1.0927 to a near 1-week high of 1.1084 yesterday suggests long-awaited retracement of recent downtrend has taken place, subsequent retreat would bring sideways swings ahead of release of key U.S. jobs data later today.

As long as 1.1000/10 holds, upside bias remains for gain to 1.1115/20 but 1.1164 should cap this week's rise. A daily close below 1.1000 signals 1st leg of correction is over and risks weakness to 1.0965/70 but 1.0927 should hold.

On the data front, Germany will kick off with industrial output, then France's current account, imports n exports, Italy's retail sales, then EU's employment n Q2 GDP.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Sept 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Sept 2019 05:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1017
Although Friday's weakness to 1.1021 (Europe) then intra-day break below there suggests euro's upmove from last Tuesday's 27-month trough at 1.0927 has made a temporary top at 1.1084 (Thursday) and consolidation with downside bias, near term oversold condition would prevent steep fall and reckon 1.0998 (previous res, now sup) would contain weakness and bring rebound, above 1.1056 (post-NFP high) would yield re-test of 1.1084.

A daily close below 1.0998 would risk stronger retracement of said upmove towards 1.0978 before prospect of recovery later this week.

On the data front, Germany will kick off with exports, imports, trade balance and current account, then later EU will release Sentix investor sentiment. ECB's Hakkarainen will speak at a financial law seminar in Helsinki at 12:20GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Sept 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Sept 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 106.94
Despite dollar's fall from last Thursday's 5-week peak at 107.22 to 106.63 in post-NFP trading on Friday, subsequent rebound to 107.01 in Asia today suggests the pullback has ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for a re-test of said resistance, break would extend upmove from August's 33-month trough at 104.46 to 107.49/50 later, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 107.82.

On the downside, only below 106.63 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement to 106.38, then 106.22 before prospect of a recovery.

After Friday's blockbuster U.S. NFP, no eco. data is due out today, therefore, traders may take cue on intra-day move in U.S. yields especially the benchmark 1-year which had rebounded from Sepember's 3-year low of 1.429% (Tuesday) to as high as 1.608% on Friday (circa 1.5687%).
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Sept 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Sept 2019 05:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1045
Although yesterday's strong bounce from 1.1016 (Asia) to 1.1067 in New York suggests euro's pullback from last week's high at 1.1084 (Thursday) has ended, subsequent retreat due to broad-based usd's strength suggests further sideways swings are in store before upmove from Sep's 27-month bottom resumes, loss of upward momentum would limit upside to 1.1115.

Only a daily close below 1.1116 signals 1st leg of correction is over and may risk stronger retracement of said rise towards 1.0978 later this week.

On the data front, France will kick off with non-farm payrolls, industrial output, then the same from Italy.
 

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Sept 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Sept 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.28
Although dollar has retreated after intra-day break above last Thursday's 5-week peak at 107.22 to 107.49 in Asia on rising U.S. Treasury yields and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals upmove from August's 33-month trough at 104.46 has resumed, upside bias is retained for another rise to 107.82 before prospect of a correction due to loss of momentum.

On the downside, only below 107.06 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 106.95/96 later.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
France non-farm payrolls, industrial output, Italy industrial output, UK claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings.
Canada housing starts, building permits and U.S. redbook, JOLTS job opening.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Sept 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Sept 2019 05:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1045
Although euro's sideways swings after early retreat from last week's high at 1.1084 t 1.1016 (Monday) are likely to continue, possibly until ECB's rate decision on Thursday, as long as 1.1016 holds, recent upmove from September's 27-month trough would head towards next chart objective at 1.1115.

Only a daily close below 1.1016 signals 1st leg of correction from 1.0927 has ended and may risk stronger retracement towards1.0978 before prospect of rebound later this week.

No economic data is due out from the euro area countries so traders are likely take cue from intra-day move in U.S. yields.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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74
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AceTraderFx Sept 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Sept 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 107.76
Dollar's resumption of upmove from August's 33-month low at 104.46 to a fresh 5-week high at 107.84 today signals price would head to 108.42 after consolidation before prospect of correction due to loss of upward momentum.

On the downside, only below 107.20/22 would yield weakness towards 106.93.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Japan business survey index, U.S. MBA mortgage application, PPI final, PPI core, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales and Canada capital utilization.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Sept 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Sept 2019 05:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1009
Yesterday's intra-day selloff from 1.1055 and then break of Monday's 1.1016 low to 1.0986 suggests at least the 1st leg of correction from September's 27-month bottom at 1.0927 has ended earlier at 1.1084 and range trading with downside bias is seen ahead of key ECB's rate decision.

Below 1.0986 would head back towards 1.0927 whilst a move above 1.1031 (ECB's less-dovish hold perhaps) signals pullback from 1.1084 is over, then price would yield another rise towards this res level.

Ahead of ECB meeting, Germany will release final CPI, HICP, then France's CPI and EU's industrial production.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Sept 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Sept 2019 05:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1075
Although euro's brief break above previous September's 1.1084 high to a 2-week top at 1.1109 Friday suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low earlier at 1.0927, subsequent retreat in New York session signals range trading is in store before prospect of further gain, 'loss of momentum' should cap price well below 1.1164 res.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1056 may risk stronger retracement of aforesaid rise to 1.1006/16.

Data to be released later today:
UK rightmove house price, Italy CPI, CPI(EU norm) final.
And U.S. New York Fed manufacturing on Monday.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Sept 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Sept 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.88
Dollar's rebound to 107.93 after opening lower to 107.48 in New Zealand on weekend Saudi attack suggests pullback from last Friday's high at 108.26 has ended there and re-test of said resistance is seen, break would extend upmove from August's 33-month low at 104.46 to 108.40/50.

On the downside, only below 107.48 signals a temporary top is made and risks fall to 107.19 but 106.93 may hold.

U.S. economic calendar is pretty thin with NY Fed manufacturing index being the only data due out at 12:30 GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Sept 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Sept 2019 05:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1007
Yesterday's selloff from 1.1091 (New Zealand) to as low as 1.0994 in New York session due to broad-based usd's demand suggests euro's early corrective rise from September's 27-month bottom at 1.0927 has made a top at last Friday's 2-week high at 1.1109 and consolidation with downside bias is seen, however, oversold condition should keep price above 1.0930/40.

Only a daily close above 1.1056/62 (previous sup area, now res) signals pullback from 1.1109 has ended, then risk would shift to upside for stronger gain towards 1.1091.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand Westpac consumer survey, GDT price index, China house prices, Australia home price index.
Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current condition, EU ZEW economic sentiment.
Canada manufacturing sales, and U.S. redbook, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, NAHB housing market index.