Weekly Economic Calendar: July 3 to 10, 2026
A holiday-shortened week puts the June FOMC minutes, the RBNZ rate decision, and Canadian jobs data in the spotlight.Traders return from the US Independence Day break to a light but tricky calendar for July 3 to 10, 2026.
The headline event is Wednesday's release of the June FOMC meeting minutes, the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, followed by the RBNZ rate decision, China's inflation report, and Canada's June labor data. Expect thin liquidity early in the week and sharp bursts of volatility around the releases below.
This Week at a Glance
| Date | UK (BST) | US (ET) | Event | Currency | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Jul 3 | All day | All day | US Independence Day (observed): US markets closed | USD | Low liquidity |
| Mon, Jul 6 | 10:00 AM | 5:00 AM | Eurozone Retail Sales (May) | EUR | High |
| Mon, Jul 6 | 3:00 PM | 10:00 AM | US ISM Services PMI (June) | USD | High |
| Tue, Jul 7 | 1:30 PM | 8:30 AM | US Trade Balance (May) | USD | Medium |
| Wed, Jul 8 | 3:00 AM | 10:00 PM (Tue) | RBNZ Interest Rate Decision + Statement | NZD | High |
| Wed, Jul 8 | 7:00 PM | 2:00 PM | FOMC June Meeting Minutes | USD | High (Event of the Week) |
| Thu, Jul 9 | 2:30 AM | 9:30 PM (Wed) | China CPI (June) | CNY, AUD, NZD | High |
| Thu, Jul 9 | 1:30 PM | 8:30 AM | US Weekly Jobless Claims | USD | Medium |
| Fri, Jul 10 | 7:00 AM | 2:00 AM | Germany Final HICP Inflation (June) | EUR | High |
| Fri, Jul 10 | 1:30 PM | 8:30 AM | Canada Employment Change + Unemployment Rate (June) | CAD | High |
Friday, July 3: US Markets Closed
With July 4 falling on a Saturday this year, US stock and bond markets observe the Independence Day holiday on Friday, July 3. Volumes across forex, gold, and indices will be thin. Beginners should be cautious: low liquidity can produce erratic price spikes even without news.Monday, July 6: Eurozone Retail Sales and US ISM Services PMI
Eurozone retail sales (09:00 GMT) measure consumer spending across the bloc and can move EUR pairs if the print surprises. Later, the US ISM Services PMI (14:00 GMT) covers the sector that drives roughly 80 percent of US GDP. A reading above 50 signals expansion and typically supports the US dollar. The index printed 54.5 in May.Wednesday, July 8: RBNZ Rate Decision
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand enters this meeting with the Official Cash Rate at 2.25 percent after an extended easing cycle. With energy-driven inflation pressures back on the radar globally, analysts see a genuine two-way risk: a hold is the base case, but a surprise cannot be ruled out. NZD/USD traders should expect elevated volatility around the statement.Wednesday, July 8: FOMC June Minutes, Event of the Week
The June Fed meeting was the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, and the committee held rates steady while flagging inflation still running above the 2 percent goal. The updated dot plot shifted notably hawkish, with the median year-end projection implying one 25-basis-point hike before the end of 2026.Warsh also declined to take part in the dot plot and moved away from traditional forward guidance, which makes these minutes the market's best window into the committee's real thinking. A hawkish tone could lift the US dollar and pressure gold and indices. A dovish read would likely do the opposite.
Thursday, July 9: China CPI
China's consumer inflation has hovered near flat, with the monthly reading at -0.1 percent in May. As the world's second-largest economy and the top trading partner of Australia and New Zealand, a surprise here tends to spill over into AUD, NZD, and commodity markets, including gold and oil.Friday, July 10: German Inflation and Canadian Jobs
Germany's final HICP confirms whether Eurozone inflation is cooling or reaccelerating after recent readings near 2.7 to 2.9 percent, a key input for ECB policy expectations and EUR pairs. Then Canada's June employment report closes the week.Unemployment eased to 6.6 percent in May, and a further improvement would support the Canadian dollar, while a weaker print would weigh on it.
Key Takeaways for Traders
The FOMC minutes on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT are the single biggest volatility event of the week for USD, gold, and US indices.
- Wednesday is a double-risk day: RBNZ in the Asian session, Fed minutes in the New York session.
- Thin post-holiday liquidity on July 3 and early July 6 raises slippage risk. Consider wider stops or smaller position sizes around these windows.
- Friday's Canada jobs report is the main event for CAD pairs and often produces fast moves in USD/CAD.
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