Technical Analysis Today

[Zerologic]

Gold prices remain above the $5,000 level.

After dropping to around $4402 amid a massive sell-off following gold's historic peak in early 2026, gold prices have begun to move gradually higher, driven by a combination of weak US economic data and safe-haven sentiment. Yesterday, gold formed a small-bodied bullish candle. The price reached a high of $5118, a low of $5019, and a close of $5088.

US economic data on December retail sales, just released yesterday, showed stagnant growth. This has fueled concerns about slowing consumption and reinforced speculation that the Fed will adopt an accommodative stance. The market is starting to price in a 60-basis-point Fed rate cut by the end of 2026. Lower interest rates have historically benefited gold because they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

Geopolitical tensions, including the issue between the US and Iran and policy uncertainty in Washington, are driving investors to gold as a hedge. Furthermore, sustained buying by global central banks provides structural support for gold in the long-term.

Global central bank demand for gold is projected to remain a key pillar supporting high gold prices. International financial institutions and commodity analysts predict solid purchases, albeit with slight adjustments from previous years' records.

JP Morgan projects central bank gold purchases to reach 800 tons in 2026. The World Gold Council (WGC) and several other analysts estimate purchases in the 700-750 ton range. In comparison, total purchases in 2025 be approximately 863 tons.

Central banks, especially in emerging countries, continue to diversify their assets to reduce their dependence on the US dollar. Learning from the geopolitical conflicts of recent years, gold is considered a safe-haven that cannot be frozen by foreign authorities, making it a crucial sovereign instrument.

This sustained institutional buying creates a floor for gold prices, meaning that if a technical correction occurs, central bank buying tends to limit a significant price decline.

The 2025 WGC survey showed that 95% of central bank respondents expect global gold reserves to continue to increase, and 43% plan to increase their own holdings throughout 2026.

Gold is also viewed by most investors as a hedge against global economic uncertainty. China's move to urge domestic banks to limit exposure to US Treasuries reinforces the shift towards gold.

Today's gold price forecast: nearest support is around $5050, with the next support target around $5030. Nearest resistance is around $5115, with the next resistance target around $5145. This forecast could be wrong.

 

[Zerologic]

GBP/JPY shows the pound under considerable pressure from the yen.

For the fourth consecutive day of trading, the GBP/JPY cross pair has shown quite strong bearish sentiment. GBP/JPY is currently trading around 208.094, with a bearish candlestick crossing the lower band. Yesterday's price range was 209.546 to 207.563, with a close of 208.081.

Recent political and monetary dynamics drove the yen's strengthening. The landslide victory of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the February 9th election provided political certainty. Although Takaichi favors stimulus, the market views this victory as a path to a more orderly normalization of monetary policy.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised interest rates to 0.75% at its December 2025 meeting. The market is now pricing in an additional rate hike to 1.00% at its March 2026 meeting. The Japanese yen is also gaining strength from global trade uncertainty related to US tariff policies, which has triggered inflows into safe-haven assets.

UK GDP data shows very slow growth, at just 0.1% in the last quarter of 2025. Furthermore, the UK's goods trade deficit reportedly widened to a record high, further weighing on the pound sterling.

At its meeting in early February 2026, the Bank of England (BoE) decided to hold interest rates at 3.75%. However, the vote was very close, with four members favoring a cut. Governor Andrew Balley signaled dovishly that further rate cuts were highly likely, as inflation was expected to fall to 2% in the second quarter of 2026.

British political conditions are reportedly in serious turmoil. Prime Minister Keir Starmer of the Labour Party is facing significant pressure that threatens the stability of his leadership. The most heated topic this week is the link between Starmer's inner circle and the Jeffrey Epstein scandal. The appointment of Peter Mandelson as Ambassador to the United States drew intense criticism after new documents revealed his past close ties with Epstein. The impact is that Starmer is being pressured to resign not only by the opposition but also by figures within his own party.

This political risk makes the GBP extremely vulnerable. If news of a no-confidence motion or the resignation of another cabinet minister emerges today, the pound could fall further against the yen, which is currently strengthening thanks to the new political stability in Japan.

Today's GBP/JPY price forecast: nearest support is around 207.60, with the next support target around 206.85. Nearest resistance is around 209.35, with the next resistance target around 210.10. This forecast could be wrong.

 

[Zerologic]

Oil prices fluctuate amid geopolitical tensions and oversupply projections

The XTI/USD (WTI) oil price reflects market dynamics, which are currently in a tug-of-war between short-term geopolitical tensions and projections of structural oversupply in 2026. Last week, oil prices drew a bearish candle with a small body and relatively long wicks at the top and bottom of the candle. Price volatility last week tended to be between the middle and upper band lines.

The current WTI crude oil price is in the range of 60.70-62.80. The market is experiencing corrective pressure after attempting to break through the strong resistance level of 65.00 last week.

Rumors that several OPEC+ countries are considering increasing production next April are weighing on prices. Furthermore, the EIA projects a significant global surplus throughout 2026, related to increasing stock inventories due to stock builds in several countries, including China. This indicates bearish medium-term fundamentals if demand is weak.

US investment reports show a significant increase in inventories, which has recently put pressure on prices, indicating short-term oversupply.

Tensions in the Middle East, including the US-Iran issue, continue to impose a risk premium on oil prices. Threats to the Strait of Hormuz, a transit route for 20% of the world's oil, often drive prices higher due to concerns about supply disruptions. Uncertainty surrounding negotiations between the United States and Iran, as well as political dynamics in the region, have helped to contain price declines, even amid weak fundamental data.

Factors to consider for oil price catalysts, such as weekly API and EIA data, are important. Declining inventories typically boost prices, while rising inventories can put downward pressure on prices. Demand indicators, such as US gasoline consumption data and EIA projections, are also important. Large changes in demand can impact inventories.

OPEC+ production decisions remain a major factor influencing prices. Any sign of increased production could depress prices, while any announcement of a tightening could spike prices.

Any escalation in geopolitical conflict, such as the US-Iran conflict, could impose a significant risk premium on oil prices in the short to medium term.

The movement of the US Dollar Index (DXY) is also of concern because XTIUSD is priced in USD. A strengthening dollar tends to depress oil prices, while a weakening dollar can support them.

This week's oil price forecast: nearest support is around $60.50, with the next support target around $55.00. Nearest resistance is around $65.30, with the next resistance target around $66.60. This forecast could be wrong.

 

[Zerologic]

Silver is trending bearish in the short term amidst strong long-term fundamentals.

After a sharp decline at the end of January, silver has been fluctuating in a consolidation phase. Yesterday, silver prices formed a small bearish candle with a short lower wick, indicating low volatility at the start of this week. The price formed a high of 77,901, a low of 74,514, and a close of 76,581.

Fundamentally, silver is being pulled by two opposing forces. US inflation data released yesterday for January showed a figure of 2.4%, down from 2.7%. Despite cooling inflation, the market reacted with a moderate strengthening of the US dollar index (DXY), as the Fed is expected to be in no hurry to cut interest rates anytime soon, holding rates in the 3.5%-3.75% range. A more stable dollar makes non-yielding assets, such as silver, temporarily less attractive.

2026 is expected to be the sixth consecutive year in which silver experiences a structural deficit. Demand from the industrial sector, including AI manufacturing, data centers, solar panels, and automotive, remains high, while mining production struggles to keep pace. This provides a strong price floor to keep silver from falling too far.

Today marks the post- Presidents' Day holiday in the US, so market volatility is expected to increase when the New York market reopens. However, China is celebrating the Lunar New Year holiday, which could significantly impact silver movements. China is one of the world's largest consumers of silver, both for jewelry and industrial purposes. With the closure of mainland Chinese markets, trading volumes in the Asian session have been drastically reduced. Consequently, silver is expected to move within a narrow range due to the loss of significant participation. However, this thin liquidity also poses the risk of sudden volatility if major news comes out of the US, as even small orders can move prices significantly beyond normal levels.

The market is currently entering a calm consolidation phase. Analysts believe the movement is dominated by profit-taking by speculators who have been trading since early February, taking advantage of the quiet Asian market.

With today's Lunar New Year holiday, silver is likely to remain depressed below of the $80.00 level throughout the day without any further boost from Chinese demand. Silver's movement is expected to follow the US dollar's trend completely without any disruption from Asian sentiment.

Silver's movement today is projected to have the nearest support at around $74.11, with the next support target at around $65.10. The nearest resistance is around $80.00, with the next resistance target at around $86.20. This forecast could be wrong.

 

[Zerologic]

NZD/USD Ahead of RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

Over the past six days, the NZD/USD commodity currency pair has been stable within the range of 0.60042-0.60759. Yesterday, the pair drew a bullish candle with a relatively long low at the bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 0.60504, a low of 0.60042, and a close of 0.60489.

Today is predicted to be crucial for the NZD/USD. Market focus will be on the New Zealand interest rate decision and important data releases from the United States.

Today, the RBNZ will announce its monetary policy statement and interest rate. The current RBNZ interest rate is at 2.25%. Market consensus expects the RBNZ to hold rates at that level. Although inflation in New Zealand rose to 4.6%, the unemployment rate soared to its highest level in a decade at 5.4%. The RBNZ faces a dilemma: it wants to control inflation while supporting the still-weak economic recovery.

If the RBNZ signals a hawkish stance or plans to raise interest rates this year, this could support the NZD's strength. Conversely, if the focus is on economic management to reduce unemployment, the NZD could weaken.

In the US, the US dollar is currently in a strong position due to geopolitical uncertainty related to US talks with Iran and the cautious stance of Fed officials. The market will await the release of the Fed's meeting minutes. Investors are also watching the release of US Industrial Production and Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data to determine whether US inflation is truly under control or remains stuck above 2%.

Today's market is expected to be in wait-and-see mode, awaiting the RBNZ's announcement before taking large positions. The RBNZ Governor's statement will be in focus. If they are optimistic about the 2% inflation target, the NZD will receive support. On the other hand, the FOMC minutes could also impact the NZDUSD pair.

As a commodity currency, the NZD is influenced by the performance of raw material exports. According to the latest data as of February 2026, exports are in a recovery phase but are overshadowed by global price volatility. For the first time, New Zealand's total export value reached NZD 80 billion, representing an increase of approximately 14% compared to the previous year. Dairy products continue to contribute significantly more than other products.

New Zealand relies heavily on China as its trading partner. Any slowdown in the Chinese economy, particularly in the property sector, negatively impacts the NZD.

Technically, the forecast price range for the NZDUSD is 0.6010-0.5995, with resistance at 0.6065-0.6080. This forecast could be incorrect.

 

[Zerologic]

AUD/USD under pressure after FOMC minutes

One of the commodity currency pairs, AUD/USD, is exhibiting interesting dynamics amid divergent monetary policy between the RBA and the Fed and today's Australian employment data release. Yesterday, AUD/USD drew a bearish candle with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of 0.70855, a low of 0.70350, and a close of 0.70386.

Investors appear to be more cautious ahead of the release of the FOMC minutes and Australian employment data today. The main sentiment focused on the AUD/USD pair today is driven by the RBA's hawkish stance, which contrasts with dovish expectations from the Fed.

The RBA recently raised interest rates to 3.85% in early February due to stubborn inflation. Employment change data is released today, with expectations for an increase of 20,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of around 4.2%. If the employment data is stronger than expected, the AUD will likely receive significant buying support.

The US released the FOMC meeting minutes, which showed that the Fed is considering one to three interest rate cuts in 2026 due to US inflation declining to 2.4%. This has put general selling pressure on the USD.

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz triggered global market volatility, but market focus remains on the yield differential, which currently favors the AUD. Fundamentally, the AUD/USD pair is expected to be bullish today. The combination of the RBA's softening stance is creating a positive environment for the AUD.

The US dollar index is currently seen in a short-term recovery phase after experiencing a significant decline at the end of the year. The DXY is currently trading around 97.728, up from a low of 97.118. The FOMC minutes released early this morning confirmed that the Fed decided to temporarily pause its interest rate cutting cycle after three consecutive cuts. US interest rates are currently in the 3.50%-3.75% range.

The market is cautiously awaiting fourth-quarter GDP data, set to be released on Friday. US economic growth is expected to slow to 3%, which could put further pressure on the USD if the results are worse than expected.

Significantly, short positions against the US dollar are currently at their most pessimistic level in 14 years. Historically, such extreme conditions often trigger sudden price reversals if US economic data suddenly strengthens.

 

[Zerologic]

AUD/JPY rose to 109.764 amid RBA's hawkish stance

The AUD/JPY cross pair has slowly recovered for four consecutive days after last week's correction. Yesterday, the AUD/JPY pair formed a bullish candle with a short upper shadow. The price formed a high of 109.764, a low of 108.854, and a close of 109.388.

The AUD/JPY pair exhibits an interesting dynamic between Australia's renewed monetary tightening and Japan's policy normalization. At its meeting in early February 2026, the RBA surprisingly raised the interest rate to 3.85%. This was triggered by inflation in the fourth quarter of 2025, which surged above expectations, reaching 3.4%-3.6%. The RBA is expected to raise the interest rate again to 4.1% in May 2026, as the economy continues to show strong demand pressures.

In Japan, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised interest rates to 0.75%, the highest since 1995, last December. Markets are currently monitoring the leadership transition in Japan under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Her landslide election victory has boosted the yen, as markets anticipate more consistent policy normalization, despite concerns about fiscal expansion.

The recently released Australian jobs report remained solid, keeping the unemployment rate below the low of around 4.3%. This provides the green light for the RBA to remain aggressive.

In Japan, there is a bank holiday today in some regions due to Statehood Day, which may result in slightly lower trading volumes in the Asian session. Meanwhile, the 10-year Japanese Yen (JGP) bond yield is stable in the 2.2%-2.3% range, anchoring the JPY's strength.

AUD factors to pay attention to include the RBA minutes and statements from RBA officials. The release schedule for employment, inflation, CPI, and retail sales is also expected. Regarding global risk sentiment, AUD/JPY is a sensitive pair if geopolitical tensions escalate, as investors tend to flock to the safe-haven JPY.

As a commodity currency, the Australian Dollar (AUD) is influenced by the commodity market. This month, the commodity market has experienced significant bullish momentum, providing a strong structural boost for the AUD. High commodity export prices help increase purchasing power in the Australian economy, which naturally strengthens the AUD exchange rate. If the commodity price index continues to grow above 10% annually, the AUD's uptrend is likely to continue.

AUDJPY is forecast to be optimistic but cautious today. The nearest support is around 108.80, with the next support target around 108.45. The nearest resistance is around 109.80, with the next resistance target around 110.15. This forecast could be incorrect.

 

[Zerologic]

WTI oil prices hit a record high of $66.00 amid US-Iran tensions

WTI oil prices are showing strong bullish sentiment due to a combination of escalating geopolitical tensions and sudden supply tightening in the United States. WTI oil prices reached a high of $66.98 on Friday and then closed at $66.30.

The escalation of US-Iran geopolitical tensions is the main driver of the oil price increase. President Trump has given Iran a 10-15 day deadline to reach a new nuclear deal. The US military buildup in the Middle East is increasing supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for 20% of the world's oil supply.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict also remains in the spotlight. The recent failure of peace negotiations in Geneva has prolonged uncertainty over Russian energy supplies, adding another floor to global oil prices.

Tensions between the US and Iran have reached their highest point in years. Recent updates suggest the situation is on the verge of an open military confrontation. The US has deployed dozens of fighter jets and B-2 bombers to bases in the region. The aircraft carriers USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford are already on alert in the Arabian Sea.

Iran, through the IRGC, has asserted that any attack in the region will be retaliated with missile strikes on US military bases in Jordan, Kuwait, the UAE, and Bahrain. If war does break out, oil prices could spike due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The latest EIA report added a boost to oil prices. The latest EIA data showed an unexpected decline in US commercial crude oil inventories of 9.0 million barrels. This figure was well below market expectations, which had previously predicted a stock increase. This decline indicates strong domestic demand amid declining production.

OPEC+ remains committed to delaying production increases until the end of the first quarter of 2026. This prevents the global market supply surplus that EIA analysts had previously feared.

 

[Zerologic]

Gold prices have rebounded amid US-Iran tensions.

Gold prices have recently demonstrated strong bullish momentum. Gold has successfully broken through key psychological levels and set a new record. Yesterday, gold prices drew a bullish candle with virtually no shadows. The price formed a high of $5225, a low of $5097, and a close of $5224.

Gold market sentiment is dominated by economic policy uncertainty, physical scarcity factors, and geopolitical risks. The market is currently monitoring the Fed's policy transition. Although interest rates are in the 3.50%-3.75% range, inflation data has cooled to a four-year low of 2.4%, strengthening expectations of future rate cuts.

A report from S&P Global & Tavi Costa indicates that no major gold deposit discoveries will be made in 2024-2025, raising concerns about a supply crunch. Mining companies are focusing more on expanding existing mines than exploring new ones due to rising operating costs.

The World Gold Committee (WGC) reported in early February that total global gold demand for 2025 will reach a historic high of 5,002 tons. This surge is driven by massive accumulation by central banks and physical investment demand amid geopolitical uncertainty.

The market is currently focused on the US-Iran tensions. Trump's speech is expected to provide clues regarding tariffs and foreign relations, particularly the US-Iran nuclear talks. Relations between the two countries are currently at a crucial point, with diplomacy and military threats running parallel.

Iran and the US are scheduled to return to the negotiating table on Thursday, February 26, 2026, in Geneva, considered a last-ditch effort to de-escalate the conflict. Iran has expressed a willingness to compromise, but has rejected any interim agreement. They are demanding the full lifting of economic sanctions and guarantees of their sovereignty. Trump has threatened to take more severe military action if the US fails to agree to these terms.

This uncertainty is fueling gold, with the market currently pricing in the worst-case scenario. If the negotiations fail, gold prices could potentially surge due to market panic. On the other hand, if there is an agreement, it is predicted that there will be massive profit-taking.

Aside from geopolitical risks, today the market will await the PPI release, which could trigger volatility in the US dollar.

Gold is currently priced at around $5,227, with the RSI at overbought levels. The nearest support is estimated at $5,153, with the next support target at $5,052. The nearest resistance is estimated at $5,266, with the next resistance target at $5,320. This forecast could be incorrect.