Technical Analysis Today

[Zerologic]

GBP pares losses ahead of UK retail sales data

The GBPUSD currency pair drew a bullish candlestick yesterday, Thursday, November 20th, with a small body and relatively long shadows at the top and bottom. The price formed a high of 1.13124, a low of 1.30376, and a close of 1.30758 from an open of 1.30564.

In the American trading session, GBP strengthened following the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which far exceeded expectations, revealing that the economy added more people to the labor force than expected. The US economy added 119,000 jobs in September, boosting the chances of a Fed rate cut to 43%, despite the unemployment rate dropping to 4.4%. Hawkish Fed officials warned against easing policy too quickly, as it could push inflation higher and undermine its 2% inflation target commitment. Meanwhile, in the UK, declining inflation and confidence reinforced bets on a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut.

Today is a busy day of economic data releases that have the potential to trigger market volatility. The pound sterling will be the main focus in the European session with the release of important UK retail sales data. According to Forexfactory, UK retail sales rose 0.5% in the previous release, and today's data is expected to contract by -0.1%. The implications of a strong data release could increase optimism about consumer spending and economic growth, providing a positive boost to the GBP. A weak figure could raise fears of a recession or slowdown, which could weigh on the GBP.

Other data releases of interest include the UK flash manufacturing PMI and the UK services PMI. The PMI is an indicator of healthy business activity; a reading above 50 indicates expansion. A stronger-than-expected UK PMI could support the GBP. The flash manufacturing PMI is expected to come in at 49.3, a slight contraction from the previous release of 49.7. The flash services PMI is expected to come in at 51.9, a slight decrease from the previous release of 52.3.

In recent days, there have been reports of a decline in UK inflation (CPI) to 3.6% in October. This has the potential to increase speculation that the BoE will hold or even cut interest rates sooner, which tends to be negative for GBP. The market will be watching today's data for further clues regarding the BoE's policy direction.

Today, the US will also release economic data, including the Flash Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI. The US Flash Manufacturing PMI is estimated at 52.0, slightly down from the previous release of 52.5. The Flash Services PMI is estimated at 54.6, down from the previous release of 54.8. Looking at the UK and US PMI figures, business activity in the US is stronger than in the UK.

General sentiment towards the US dollar is currently influenced by the Fed's comments and US bond yields. The dollar tends to strengthen if US data shows a resilient economy, which could increase speculation that the Fed will hold interest rates for longer.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently up around 0.14% and is above the 100 level, indicating the US dollar's strong performance against six other major currencies. The DXY reached a high of 100.360 before finally falling to 100.257.

Today's forecast shows key resistance in the 1.3150-1.3180 range, and key support in the 1.2950-1.2920 range. A breakout of these levels could lead to further price increases.

 

[Zerologic]

Gold prices consolidate amid declining bets on a Fed interest rate cut.

Although gold prices fell on Friday, drawing a bearish candle with wicks at the top and bottom of the candle, its movement remained within a consolidation pattern. Gold experienced a prolonged correction after reaching a new all-time high of $4,381, falling to a low of $3,886 in late October. Gold's movement over the past five days has tended to correct within a range of around $3,998-$4,132. Gold briefly recovered to $4,244 in mid-November, but failed to extend its gains.

Several factors are hampering gold's rise, including declining expectations for a Fed interest rate cut and a strengthening US dollar. Strong US PMI data helped the US dollar remain resilient, preventing XAU/USD from gathering recovery momentum.

However, market analysis also suggests that the Fed will keep interest rates lower or even consider cutting them sooner in 2025 due to recent weak economic data. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates is around 69.4%, and the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates is 30.6%. A dovish signal from the Fed tends to be positive for gold, as it reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.

The US dollar has recently shown stability after a period of weakness. The DXY is currently at 100.196. If expectations of a Fed rate cut strengthen, this could put pressure on the USD, which in turn supports gold, as gold is priced in USD. Although the Fed minutes were released the previous week, the market is still digesting their contents. Any indication of future policy could impact the USD.

The US stock market has shown a mild correction or tends to move sideways, often causing investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold, which benefit from such conditions. From a geopolitical perspective, wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, although not mentioned today, have historically supported gold as a hedge.

Gold also enjoys structural support from global central banks as an alternative reserve. According to the World Gold Council, central banks held approximately 230 tons of net gold in the third quarter of 2025, an increase of approximately 28% compared to the previous quarter. As of the first quarter of the year to date, central bank purchases were recorded at approximately 634 tons. The World Gold Council (WGC) estimates total central bank purchases in 2025 to be in the range of 750-900 tons. The WGC survey shows that most central banks anticipate increasing gold holdings over the next five years, with many reducing their US dollar holdings as reserves. This trend demonstrates a transition by central banks in emerging and developed economies, increasingly considering gold as a strategic component of national reserves.

Today's fundamental analysis, with expectations of a Fed interest rate cut and a cautious stock market stance, suggests that fundamental sentiment tends to support a slight increase in gold prices, although the market may be in a consolidation or sideways phase following previous price movements.

Today's price range forecast: A reasonable price range is within $4,000-$4,132, and a wider range is between $3,960-$3,992 and $4,180-$4,200.

 

[Zerologic]

Silver prices rose, driven by expectations of Fed easing.

Silver prices rose on Monday, November 24, 2025, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of $51,382, a low of $49,667, and a close of $51,380.

Fundamental factors influencing the XAGUSD price that traders are paying attention to include interest rates and US central bank policy, US dollar performance and safe-haven demand, industrial demand, and global supply.

The rise in silver prices appears to be influenced by expectations of a Fed rate cut at its December meeting. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, bets on a Fed rate cut have risen by 86.1%, while expectations of an unchanged rate are only 14.9%. New York Fed Governor John Williams stated that he sees room for further interest rate cuts in the near future. A weakening labor market has revived investor expectations for a December rate cut. Silver, as a safe-haven asset, finds support when interest rates fall due to lower opportunity costs.

Today, the US will release economic data that could trigger volatility. Core PPI and retail sales are expected to come in at 0.2%, up from the previous release of minus 0.1%. Retail sales are expected to come in at 0.4%, down from the previously revised 0.6%. If PPI and retail sales data are higher than expected, the possibility that the Fed will hold off on cutting interest rates or keep rates relatively high could pressure silver. Conversely, lower data increases expectations of a rate cut and supports silver.

Since silver is priced in USD, a strengthening or weakening of the USD can impact the XAGUSD exchange rate. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US dollar against six major currencies, is currently above the 100,000 level. The DXY remains hovering near its peak, fluctuating within a range for three consecutive days, after pausing the previous week's gains.

Industrial demand for silver is currently high, driven by renewable energy sectors such as solar panels, electric vehicles, and the electronics industry, such as semiconductor chips. On the other hand, global supply is not keeping up with demand, creating a structural deficit caused by declining production in several major producing countries, such as Mexico. This supply deficit could support silver prices in the long term.

Today's silver price forecast: Support is estimated at $47.90 - $47.40. Resistance is estimated at $52.00 - $52.50.

 

[Zerologic]

The New Zealand Dollar Recovers Slightly Ahead of the RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

The NZD/USD currency pair drew a small-bodied bullish candlestick on Tuesday with short shadows at the top and bottom of the candlestick. Despite the slight increase, movement remained confined within a narrow range. NZD/USD formed a high of 0.56281, a low of 0.55912, and a close of 0.56177.

Fundamental analysis shows that New Zealand's domestic economy is showing signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 5.3% in the third quarter of 2025, the highest since 2026.

Today, traders will focus on the RBNZ's interest rate policy. Given signs of New Zealand's weak economy, the RBNZ is expected to cut interest rates or maintain a dovish stance. Exports of commodities such as dairy products have also declined, putting additional pressure on the NZD.

The RBNZ's interest rate is currently around 2.50%, lower than the Fed's 4% target rate. The market is currently awaiting the RBNZ's announcement, with most analysts predicting a 25 basis point cut. If the RBNZ actually cuts, especially by 50 bps, this would significantly pressure the NZD.

New Zealand's disappointing macroeconomic data have been a major factor in the recent weakening of the NZD. Reports on manufacturing activity continue to show signs of caution due to rising costs and weak confidence.

Meanwhile, the USD is gaining relative support from its safe-haven status and the possibility that the Fed will be more cautious in cutting interest rates. The Fed cut its interest rate in October by around 4.00%. However, there is a more dovish outlook, with the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates at the December meeting. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the probability of a cut has risen to 82.7%, and the probability of leaving interest rates unchanged is 17.3%.

Today's market attention is also focused on US data, which could influence expectations of future Fed rate cuts. US unemployment claims are expected to reach 226,000, down from a previously revised 220,000. The market is also closely watching other data, such as Durable Goods Orders, which will be released today.

The NZDUSD appears under pressure amid a widening interest rate differential between the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and the Fed, driven by expectations of a 25 bps rate cut. This is compounded by weak domestic economic factors and New Zealand's disappointing economic recovery.

Today's price forecast is within the lower range of 0.5555 - 0.5580, and the upper range of 0.5680 - 0.5695.

 

[Zerologic]

GBP/JPY surges on expectations of UK fiscal and budget policy

The GBP/JPY pair, often referred to as "the Beast" due to its high volatility, driven by a combination of high-yielding currencies (GBP) and safe-haven currencies (JPY), rose on Wednesday, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with virtually no shadows. The price formed a high of 207.133, a low of 205.116, and a close of 207.088.

The GBP's strengthening was supported by positive sentiment towards the pound due to market expectations of UK fiscal and budget policy. If fiscal policy is perceived as stable or improving, this could strengthen the GBP against the yen. The latest report from the UK government under Rachel Reeves just announced a large fiscal budget: tax increases worth around £26 billion through various instruments. This includes a freeze on income tax thresholds, higher taxes on dividends, high-priced properties, pension taxes, and other taxes on investment/property income.

Part of the additional tax revenue will be used to expand social spending, such as increasing public services, health care, education, the minimum wage, and public investment. The government claims this policy aims to stabilize and restore fiscal headroom, the space to finance debt and spending without excessive debt increases.

The market responded with optimism, with UK government bonds surging and long-term bond yields falling, meaning lower government borrowing costs. The strengthening of the GBP indicates that the market views this new fiscal policy as a signal of fiscal stability and improvement. However, this policy faces criticism and risks, as it is perceived as burdening household and investor incomes, particularly for workers, retirees, and small and medium-sized businesses.

On the other hand, there is currently speculation that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in the near future to curb inflation. However, uncertainty surrounding Japan's large fiscal stimulus and concerns about debt/deficit could keep the Japanese yen vulnerable. This situation creates a dynamic where the yen could strengthen slightly if the BoJ actually hikes or raises interest rates. However, structural pressures on the yen remain, such as debt, fiscal pressures, and stimulus, which could cause the yen to remain relatively weak.

The Japanese government currently carries a public debt burden, with a debt-to-GDP ratio among the highest in the world. For the coming fiscal year, the Japanese Ministry of Finance has requested a substantial allocation for debt service costs of approximately 32.4 trillion yen. This figure represents an increase of approximately 15% compared to the previous year, indicating that interest and debt costs are rising, along with rising government bond yields. However, in an effort to improve the fiscal situation, the government plans to reduce new government bond issuance compared to the previous period.

Although the GBP is currently trending higher, there are risks and uncertainties if UK fiscal policy creates uncertainty, especially if the market perceives a potential economic slowdown. Or if the Bank of Japan actually raises interest rates in response to the weakening JPY. This could potentially cause the JPY to strengthen against the GBP.

GBPJPY daily forecast: A realistic daily range is estimated between 206.00 and 208.00. Key support is around 206.00 - 206.50, and key resistance is around 208.00 - 208.50.

 

[Zerologic]

The Canadian Dollar Strengthens as Macroeconomic Data Points to Improvement

The USD/CAD currency pair drew a bearish candle on Thursday, extending the previous day's decline. The price formed a high of 1.40498, a low of 1.40277, and a close of 1.40281. The downtrend has crossed the middle band, seeking the next support target near the lower band.

The Canadian Dollar's strength appears to be largely influenced by improving Canadian economic data. Recently, the Bank of Canada (BoC) has been in the spotlight due to improving Canadian macroeconomic data. The service sector has returned to growth, with the services PMI above 50, signaling more stable Canadian economic growth.

Today, Statistics Canada will release GDP data, which could be a key factor in Canadian dollar volatility. Many analysts expect the Canadian economy to grow in the third quarter, projecting around +0.5% quarter-on-quarter. According to Forexfactory, monthly GDP is estimated to grow by 0.2%, compared to the previous release of -0.3% contraction. If GDP shows positive growth, especially higher than consensus, it could signal that the Canadian economy is recovering from its contraction. Conversely, if the figure is weak or even contractionary, it could raise expectations of further monetary easing by the Bank of Canada (BoC), which could weaken the CAD. Because the market is currently factoring in expectations about BoC monetary policy, the GDP result could be a short-term catalyst.

On the other hand, market expectations of a Fed rate cut also support the Canadian dollar, as a Fed rate cut could impact lower-yielding US bonds, making deposits and USD-based instruments less attractive. Theoretically, global investors will shift funds to other countries offering higher yields, reducing demand for the USD, which in turn weakens the USD.

According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the probability of an interest rate cut is currently estimated at 86.9%. Market expectations are for a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's December 10, 2025, meeting. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD's performance against six major currencies, is showing a weakening trend. The DXY is below 100.00. At the time of writing, it was at 99.556, a decrease of approximately -0.01%. The DXY has shown a bearish candle in the past two days and is currently near its previous low, which technically could be an important support area.

The Canadian dollar is also correlated with oil prices; rising oil prices tend to support the CAD. Currently, oil prices, although under slight pressure, saw a recovery yesterday, with WTI prices showing signs of an increase.

For the USDCAD price forecast, the main support area is focused on the 1.3950-1.3920 range as the lower boundary of a more stable trading range. A breakout of this level indicates strong selling pressure. The main resistance area is the 1.4100-1.4150 range, which represents the psychological level of the previous swing low.

 

[Zerologic]

Gold prices surged amid heightened market expectations for a Fed rate cut.

Last weekend, gold prices extended their gains on December 28, 2025, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadow. Gold prices reached a high of $4226, a low of $4156, and a close of $4223. This high price approached the historical high of $4244 reached on November 13.

Gold prices are generally bullish, based on short- to medium-term fundamental sentiment, supported by market expectations regarding US central bank policy and the global economy.

The market has been anticipating that the Fed will cut interest rates soon, with expectations that a cut will occur at its December meeting. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 bps is 87.4%, and the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in the 3.75%-4.00% range is 12.6%.

Expectations of a rate cut have weakened the US dollar, making low-yielding assets less attractive. The DXY is seen moving below the 100 level, currently around 99.479. Since gold is priced in USD, a weaker US dollar supports bullish gold prices.

Today's key data focus is on the US economic calendar, particularly the release of the ISM manufacturing PMI and the Chicago PMI, which will be released early in the US session. Weaker-than-expected data could strengthen speculation of an interest rate cut, thus benefiting gold. Conversely, stronger data could dampen expectations of a cut and support the USD.

Current global risk sentiment is fraught with concerns about a recession. The OECD/World Bank projects a slowdown of 2.3%-2.9% in 2025, heightening recession fears. In times of global economic and political uncertainty, gold tends to function as a safe-haven asset. The greater the concerns, the higher the demand for gold. Meanwhile, demand from central banks has also reportedly surged, providing a solid price floor for gold. Central banks such as the People's Bank of China (PBOC), the National Bank of Poland (NBP), and the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) are some examples of global central banks that are strategic buyers of gold.

The unstable global economic environment and the potential for US dollar weakness continue to support gold, which is seen as a hedge, supported by monetary policy, institutional demand, and the potential for USD weakness.

Today's gold price forecast: strong support is estimated at around $4,132 and resistance at around $4,246-$4,277. The market is awaiting US PMI data. If it's weaker than forecast, gold's resistance target will be around $4,246, with a potential further increase to $4,277. However, a correction could occur if there's significant profit-taking or the US PMI data is surprisingly strong. If the price falls below $4,180, the short-term bullish trend could be threatened.

 

[Zerologic]

WTI oil prices rose on the back of OPEC+'s latest decision on production policy.

WTI oil prices traded around 59.37 on Monday, December 1st, drawing a bullish medium-bodied candle with a slight shadow at the top of the candle. WTI oil formed a high of 59.79, a low of 58.69, and a close of 59.39.

Crude oil prices were supported by strong buying interest after OPEC+ decided to halt all production increases starting in the first quarter of 2026. This could be a significant shift after several months of increased supply, with OPEC+ adding nearly 2.9 million barrels per day since April 2025. The OPEC+ policy change comes against the backdrop of sensitive geopolitical events, as the US seeks to de-escalate the war between Russia and Ukraine. The US has suggested a peace deal would include easing sanctions on Russia, which could potentially increase global oil supply.

The latest OPEC+ policy is seen as an effort to prevent price pressures from potential increases in supply from outside OPEC+. However, this sentiment appears to be limited by persistent concerns about a global oversupply from non-OPEC+ producers, particularly the US, which could potentially depress prices in the medium term until 2026. Data shows that US oil production remains high. US oil production data continues to reach historic highs, a fundamental factor that is bearish on oil prices. Monthly production data shows US crude oil production at 13.844 million barrels per day, up from 13.800 million barrels per day the previous month.

High supply from the US, which is not part of OPEC+, could undermine OPEC+'s efforts to balance the market. The market is concerned that increased US oil production will flood the market, especially if global demand slows. This strong production data reinforces the fundamental analysis that XTIUSD faces significant challenges in maintaining price gains.

From a geopolitical risk perspective, tensions in the Middle East, such as attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea, are supporting factors for rising oil prices. These events can increase shipping costs and cause delays, creating a geopolitical risk premium.

The current oil demand outlook remains shrouded in uncertainty, largely related to the Fed's interest rate policy and the economic slowdown in several major regions, which are contributing to price pressures. US economic data, particularly interest rates and inflation, will continue to be a factor of concern as they can impact the US dollar.

The XTIUSD market currently appears to be in a tug-of-war between OPEC+ support and supply restrictions, geopolitical risks, and pressure from potential oversupply from non-OPEC+ groups and global demand uncertainty.

The daily forecast for XTIUSD is for key support in the range of 58.00-58.50, with key resistance in the range of 60.00-60.60. A break below 57 could confirm a dominant bearish trend. Meanwhile, a break above 61 could pave the way for higher resistance in the range of 62.00-63.00.

 

[Zerologic]

Australian Dollar Strengthens Ahead of Australian GDP Data

The Australian dollar strengthened during Tuesday's trading session. The AUD/USD pair drew a long-bodied bullish candle with small shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. The AUD/USD price formed a high of 0.65709, a low of 0.65346, and a close of 0.65647.

The rise in this currency pair was supported by improving market sentiment and a weakening US dollar due to rising expectations of a Fed interest rate cut at its December 10th meeting. Currently, the US dollar index (DXY) remains below the 100-day level, at 99.356 at the time of writing, having reached a low of 99.009. The DXY measures the USD's performance against six other major currencies. According to the Fedwatch tool, the probability of a Fed rate cut is currently 82.9%, while the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates is 10.2%. Expectations of a Fed interest rate easing could weaken the USD against other currencies, including the AUD.

Another factor supporting the AUD/USD is persistently high inflation from the RBA, which has led the market to believe the RBA will not rush to cut interest rates, thus maintaining the attractiveness of the AUD. Meanwhile, the persistent weakness of the US dollar (USD) reflects a series of weaker US economic indicators, particularly in the manufacturing sector, which reinforces expectations of a Fed rate cut in December.

Today, market attention will focus on Australian GDP data and US economic data, including the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and the ISM Services PMI. These economic data could trigger market volatility.

External factors such as commodity prices, including Australian exports, and global demand also remain relevant. The AUD is highly sensitive to the commodity cycle and Australian exports. This is important for the AUD, a commodity currency. Several key Australian exports generate significant foreign exchange earnings, such as iron ore, Australia's largest export. In addition, coal, natural gas, agricultural products, and gold also contribute significantly to Australia's foreign exchange reserves.

Overall, fundamental conditions currently support the AUD against the USD in the short to medium term, especially if Australian monetary policy remains hawkish while the USD faces potential easing. However, there are risk warnings if the global economy weakens or if US economic data returns to strength and the USD strengthens, which could put pressure on the AUD, especially if commodity demand declines. Several factors of concern include inflation and the Australian GDP. Quarterly GDP expectations are expected to rise slightly to 0.7% from the previous 0.6%. Higher actual data support the AUD, while weaker data could weaken the AUD.

Today's key US economic data is the ADP non-farm employment change, which is expected to come in at 5k, significantly lower than the previously revised 42k. The ISM services PMI is expected to come in at 52.0, down from the previously revised 52.4.

The forecasted price range today, AUDUSD: strong support is around 0.6480 - 0.6450, and strong resistance is around 0.6650 - 0.6680.

 

[Zerologic]

GBP/USD surges on positive reaction to UK economic policy

The GBPUSD pair surged significantly on Wednesday, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadow. The GBPUSD price formed a high of 1.133533, a low of 1.32072, and a close of 1.33516.

The most notable factor influencing the GBPUSD price surge was the weakening USD. Many market participants are increasingly confident that the Fed will soon cut interest rates, which has reduced US bond yields and the attractiveness of the USD, leading to capital flows shifting to other currencies such as the GBP. With expectations of lower interest rates, the opportunity cost of holding the USD has weakened, providing a relative advantage against the GBP.

This week, there has been positive sentiment towards the UK. Recent fiscal policy announcements and stances have reassured investors that, despite challenges, the market is no longer overly pessimistic about the GBP. With expectations that the Bank of England's monetary policy will remain relatively competitive against the USD, despite projections of lower interest rates, the GBP remains attractive to investors compared to USD-based assets.

Technical factors and market psychology also contribute to the strengthening of the GBP. Some market participants are adopting a risk-on approach, reinforced by improving global risk appetite, as markets become more optimistic about non-USD currencies. Capital flows tend to move away from the safe-haven USD, benefiting the GBPUSD.

Recent US economic data, including that from the manufacturing and labor sectors, is considered less convincing, tending to contraction or slowdown, which has raised expectations of interest rate cuts and put pressure on the USD.

The surge in the GBPUSD pair is largely due to a combination of USD weakness due to expectations of a Fed rate cut and a slowing economy, positive sentiment toward the GBP, market action tending towards risk-on capital flows, and a supportive technical position.

Risk factors to consider next include major fluctuations in US economic data, which could trigger a sudden change in direction or a strong rebound in the USD. Disappointing UK economic data, unexpected monetary policy from the Bank of England (BoE) or the Fed, and changes in global market sentiment could put pressure on major currency pairs like the GBP/USD.

The GBP/USD price range forecast for today is: support is around 1.3250 - 1.3200, and resistance is around 1.338 - 1.3420. Psychological levels are forecasted at 1.32000 and 1.34000; a break above these levels could lead to significant price movements.

 

[Zerologic]

Swiss Franc Weakens Amid Weaker Swiss Annual Inflation Data

The USD/CHF pair moved higher, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadow, during the trading session on Thursday, December 4th. The USD/CHF price currently forms a high of 0.80387, a low of 0.79910, and a close of 0.80375.

The Swiss Franc's weakening is in line with weaker Swiss inflation data. Data released by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office on Wednesday showed Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowed to 0% year-on-year in November from 0.1% in the previous month. The lower-than-expected inflation reading supports the view that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will maintain accommodative monetary policy. This, in turn, could lead to a weakening of the Swiss Franc against the USD.

Recently, reports emerged that an agreement had been reached between the United States and Switzerland to cut US import tariffs to Switzerland from 39% to 15%. This agreement has boosted Swiss exports, supporting the strengthening of the CHF. On the monetary policy front, inflation in Switzerland has slowed to a four-year low, from the current SNB interest rate of 0%. Due to stagnant inflation, low interest rates, and expectations that the SNB may maintain low rates for a while, the CHF has found support as a safe-haven currency.

Meanwhile, in the US, dovish sentiment toward the Federal Reserve due to US economic risks and weak employment/inflation data has increased the CHF's appeal against the USD. Currently, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD's performance against six major currencies, is up to 99.077 from a low of 98.765. The strengthening of the USD comes as US jobless claims, released on Thursday, came in lower than expected, at 191,000, compared to the expected 219,000, below the revised 218,000.

President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he plans to announce Jerome Powell's replacement as Fed chief early next year. According to Reuters, Kevin Hesset has emerged as the leading candidate for Fed chairman. Hesset is expected to push for more interest rate cuts, which could put selling pressure on the USD against the CHF.

Wednesday's ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report showed that private employers lost 32,000 jobs in November. This figure was lower than the market consensus forecast of 5,000 jobs and marked the largest monthly decline since early 2023.

Today, the market will be paying attention to the core PCE index data, which is likely to be a factor in market volatility. PCE data is important because it is the Fed's favorite inflation measure, and therefore often serves as a key indicator for the market to predict whether the Fed will raise, maintain, or lower interest rates. If PCE data shows higher-than-expected US inflation, it could reinforce market expectations that the Fed will remain hawkish or at least delay rate cuts. This could support USD strength, which in turn puts pressure on the CHF.

While the CHF currently appears to be a safe haven under most circumstances, the SNB's very low interest rate could limit further appreciation against the USD in the long term, especially if the Fed adopts a more aggressive policy stance.

The USDCHF price forecast for today is a lower support range of 0.7925 - 0.7900, with upper resistance at 0.8120 - 0.8260. If US economic data is disappointing or dovish sentiment, the USD could weaken, falling to 0.7980 - 0.7925. If US data is strong or global risk-on, the USD could rise to 0.8035 - 0.8120.