Technical analysis on EU,GU and majors

[bhanu545]

EUR/USD Weekly Wave Analysis 2012-08-20

EUR/USD Elliott Wave
For the last few days the EUR/USD pair was trading in an upward move developing corrective (Y) wave (coloured green) of the bigger (4) wave (coloured orange). During the Friday's European session we could observe an ascending movement from 1.2338 towards the 1.2380 level. Therefore, during the early New York session this major pair did not manage to hold this level and the price fell to the 1.2288 level (new daily low). At the moment the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.2350 level and we are expecting to see the price around 1.2640 this week. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave Y retraces 100% of the wave W, we can define the potential targets with measuring the X wave, with Take Profit at 1.2640 (100% of wave W). To reduce the risk, we can use support point at 1.2290 as Stop Loss.
Alternation: if price does not break 1.2385 resistance level soon, we need to regard (W) wave as the end of the (4) wave (coloured orange) and we can expect to see price around 1.2000 this week.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.2239 (S2) 1.2275 (S1) 1.2297 (PP) 1.2333 (R1) 1.2369 (R2) 1.2391 (R3) 1.2427
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.2385 with Stop Loss 1.2290 and Take Profit 1.2640 are recommended.

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

 

[bhanu545]

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for August 20, 2012

Considering the Linear Regression channels H1 chart, the GBP/USD pair has expressed wide range movement which is manifested in the depicted bullish Blue & Yellow channels.
The upper limit of the short term bearish Violet channel has been broken earlier today which enhances the bullish view of the pair in the short term.
The lower limit of the Yellow & Blue channels as well as the backside of the broken Violet channel are located around price level of 1.5680 which is considered to be a valid low risk BUY entry with SL located below 1.5660, while TP levels are to be located around 1.5715, 1.5744 then 1.5785.
The pair has an important intraday resistance level located around 1.5725 corresponding to the midline of the Yellow channel which needs to be broken in order to resume the bullish scenario.

Performed by Mohamed Samy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

 

[bhanu545]

GBP/USD Bullish Outlook for August 21, 2012

The pound sterling is trading near the maximum of June 20 this time and above the 200 day moving average periods (blue). If the pair closes today negotiations over this level, it will increase the likelihood of rise extension towards the level of 1.5950 (daily fractal) given that indicators are showing low volatility, there is a probable return to the 1.5710 support area. At this level we recommend to buy with targets 1.5930, our stop loss will be placed below the 1.5650 weekly support.
Our outlook for this pair is bullish in short term.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

 

[bhanu545]

EUR/USD Bearish Outlook for August 21 /2012

The euro after a day without movement, surpassed today its high of August 7 at 1.2437, and now is trading above second support weekly above 1.2454; this optimism is due to unexpected lower costs of Spanish and Italian debts.
The pair may continue its uptrend until resistance level of 1.2525, we believe that at this time there will be the beginning of a new bearish sequence in the pair. The economic problems of the European Union are far from settlement and, as a result, I think it is only a matter of time before the Europeans are punished again.
Therefore, we recommend selling at 1.2520 if this level is reached in the coming days with targets at strong support level of 1.2324. Or, if the pair is back to take an impulse, we recommend buying at 1.2394 with targets at 1.2520.
Our outlook for the pair remains bearish in the medium and long term.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

 

[bhanu545]

GBP/USD Buy Above EMA 200 for August 22, 2012

The pound has marked the upward trend. The level of 1.57 has served as a very strong resistance, which the currency was trying to overcome but failed to do so. Now it is located above that level and above 200 moving average period. This tells us that the pound can go up to the level of 1.60 in the medium term.
Since the pair is above the moving average 200 (blue), it is possible that it will return to this level, and then will be a strong support for the British pound. We, therefore, recommend buying at the 1.5710 level with targets at 1.5950 in the short term.
The trend and MACD indicators are showing bullish signs in the medium term.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

 

[bhanu545]

EUR/USD Bullish Outlook for August 22, 2012

Stock investors are waiting anxiously for economic stimulus package. As the Federal Reserve today is publishing the minutes of its last meeting, this could have a drastic effect on this pair. If there is any indication of quantitative easing in this publication, the euro could have a rally up to the level of 1.2670.
Many investors may want to close their sales orders and the pair can return to 1.2386 support, this will be a good entry point to buy the pair within the short term objectives to 1.2520, and further up to 1.2670.
The indicators on the 4 hour chart, showing overbought position at the end of today's session will define the direction that the pair will maintain in the upcoming days.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

 

[bhanu545]

EUR/USD Strong Support 1. 2410 - For August 23, 2012

The euro benefited from the data that was published by the Federal Reserve, which made the impression that many of the members are more than willing to intervene and ease monetary policy if the U.S. economy does not recover soon. This was bad for the dollar and the euro which benefited as the result and reached the maximum of July 4 at 1.2570.
At the technical level, we note that secondary downtrend line is intact and there may be a correction of the pair to the support of 1.2410. We can visualize both of levels on the chart. Given that the pair is in a bullish mood, we recommend buying with targets 1.2570 and above 1.2650. The stop loss will place it below the support of 1.2410.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

 

[bhanu545]

GBP/USD Strong Support 1.5784 - For August 23, 2012

The British pound had a bullish session yesterday, exceeding strong resistance of 1.5766 and hitting above the 200 day moving average (blue). This indicates a good bullish momentum within the pair, we note that the pair is losing strength and is possible that downward correction there expects the former resistance, but now serves as support at the level of 1.5784 ( fractal daily), increasing the likelihood of a strong support.
Therefore, we recommend buying 1.5784 with targets at 1.5950. Fractal next day.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

 

[Fares Shanab]

The British pound had a bullish session yesterday, exceeding strong resistance of 1.5766 and hitting above the 200 day moving average (blue). This indicates a good bullish momentum within the pair, we note that the pair is losing strength and is possible that downward correction there expects the former resistance, but now serves as support at the level of 1.5784 ( fractal daily), increasing the likelihood of a strong support.
Therefore, we recommend buying 1.5784 with targets at 1.5950. Fractal next day.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

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[bhanu545]

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for August 24, 2012

The GBP/USD pair demonstrated a strong bullish movement which was expected considering the movement channel expressed this week within which the pair was consolidating.
The GBP/USD pair has resumed its bullish movement recording a higher high this week at 1.5912 after breaking through 1.5750 reaching the upper limit of the depicted channel without expected bearish retracement.
The pair has an important intraday Resistance level located around 1.5910 which was tested yesterday corresponding to the upper limit of the movement channel which acted as a resistance of the bullish movement in the short term.
The lower limit of the movement channel as well as the significant Support level are located around the price level of 1.5750 where price action should be watched for a possible valid low risk BUY entry with SL located below 1.5700.

Performed by Mohamed Samy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

 

[bhanu545]

EUR/USD Weekly Analysis for August 24, 2012

The euro-dollar has overcome the psychological level of 1.25, recording a maximum at 1.2588; this optimism will not last long. In an uncertain environment like we have at this time, the U.S. dollar generally remain desirable. In addition, there is a real debate about whether the Fed made some kind of monetary easing before the election. If that is the case, the interest rate differential will still remain relatively small.
As for the long term trend, it is certainly lower, the analysis in weekly chart shows that the euro is below the bearish secondary line. There may be a final rally to 1.2650, as these levels will reach the beginning of the bears, it has a strong downtrend. Any news and deficit in the euro zone will push down the pair.
Therefore, we recommend selling on the level of resistance 1.2650 with targets at the support near1.2100 weekly. This level will be a key monthly close below this level will result in a fall to the next support 1.18.
Regarding buying the euro, do not suggest doing until we're above the 1.27 level, and would rather lose a good business opportunity, rather than buying resistance.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

 

[bhanu545]

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for August 27, 2012

The EUR/USD pair is on its way to test the short term uptrend depicted on the chart after finding resistance around price level of 1.2535.
It's more probable now that the H&S reversal pattern mentioned in the previous article is going to be confirmed.
Confirmation requires 4H closure below 1.2490 which opens a direct target towards 1.2435 then 1.2360.
The lower limit of the movement channel and two important Fibonacci levels & SMA 100 are located between 1.2310-1.2360 (S2 & S3) where price action should be watched for a valid low risk BUY entry with SL located below 1.2230 which corresponds to 78.6% of Fibonacci level.

Performed by Mohamed Samy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

 

[bhanu545]

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-08-27

As we predicted on Friday, the spot declined and approached the intermediate support of its medium term bullish channel at 1.5770 suggesting a rebound. However, a break of these levels will release a large potential and enable to reach the lower limit of its channel at 1.5590.
Technical indicators do not provide clear signals but approach an overbuy zone supporting a decline but until the support is not broken, the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands have stabilized showing a more regular volatility. Furthermore, the spot rate evolves on the levels of the superior bands supporting the hypothesis of a decline.
As the spot rate tests its intermediate support, we recommend 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a rebound where we suggest a buy on the level of 1.5770 with the 1st objective at 1.5830 and then at 1.5850. A breakthrough of 1.5750 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its support where we advise a “sell stop” which means selling the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its support of 1.5770 with the 1st objective at 1.5710 and then at 1.5690. A breakthrough of 1.5790 will invalidate this scenario.

Performed by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

 

[bhanu545]

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for August 28, 201

The EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a strong bullish movement which was maintained within the depicted bullish channel. However, on Friday the market witnessed some bearish retracement in reaction to the upper limit of its movement channel around the price level of 1.2580.
Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair managed to breakdown the short term uptrend line depicted on the chart after finding resistance around the price level of 1.2535 on Thursday.
Breakdown of the price level 1.2490 probably opens a direct target towards 1.2435, then 1.2360.
The lower limit of the movement channel and two important Fibonacci levels & SMA 100 are located between 1.2310-1.2360 (S2 & S3) where price action should be watched for a valid low risk BUY entry with SL located below 1.2230 which corresponds to 78.6% of Fibonacci level.
The most significant Resistance level is located around 1.2575, this price level was tested last week expressing bearish reaction which pushed the EUR/USD pair strongly to the downside . That's why bullish movement should break through this level in order to make other bullish swings.

Performed by Mohamed Samy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

 

[bhanu545]

GBP/USD Strong Support 1.5765 - For August 28, 2012

The British pound remains above the 200 day moving average periods (blue) and above the daily fractal. Both levels add strength to the upward movement. Today the pair just had a rebound to that level, testing the strength of this support.
Given that, the sentiment remains bullish in the short term and we recommend buying at 1.5770, with objectives at 1.5920.
There is some doubt that the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy in September, but the interest rate differential is safe within this currency pair and people will take it as such. The British pound should be further strengthened against the U.S. dollar for the foreseeable future.
Therefore, our outlook remains upward on this pair above 1.5700.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

 

[bhanu545]

GBP/USD Bullish Outlook for August 29, 2012

The British pound has been trading in the range of 1.5450 -1.5765 for three months. Now the pair is trading above the 1.5765 resistance level, which now serves as a very strong support. The fact that the pair has returned to that level and then bounced from it, increases the likelihood of a very strong bullish turn with a very strong traffic levels of 1.5850 -1.5960 (strong resistance). We can sell cautiously below these levels because there is a low volatility these days. If you prefer to buy, we recommend having a look at daily support levels.
It is most likely that the pair can quote at 1.60 level by September. Our outlook is bullish in the medium term above 1.5700.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

 

[bhanu545]

EUR/USD Bearish Outlook for August 29 /2012

The euro is trading above the psychological level of 1.25; we have seen that the pair demonstrated a recovery these days. This upward movement is more likely based on the idea that the Fed will provide more monetary easing and the ECB will probably do something of this magnitude. But of course, we will be probably disappointed. Because of this, it is really difficult for the market to operate now.
We, therefore, recommend being very cautious when buying, as before the rise there will likely be a correction to the level of 1.24.
Therefore, we recommend selling if the price closes below the daily pivot of 1.2535 or if gives a pullback to the level of 1.26. Sell with targets at 1.2464 and 1.2390.
Our outlook remains bearish below the level of 1.27.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

 

[bhanu545]

GBP/USD Sell Bellow 1.5915 for August 30, 2012

Conference in Jackson Hole that will last for three days starts today. Tomorrow Bernanke will be giving a speech and it seems that markets are willing to consolidate until we get some sort of clarity from the President. It seems that the whole world is waiting for any decision made by the Fed which will satisfy the markets.
From a technical point of view, 1.59 to 1.61 is a strong resistance which will be very difficult to overcome. If the expected data is negative, we recommend selling very cautiously at the level of 1.5915, and 1.5950 with a tight stop loss. The objectives will be in the uptrend line initiated by a bullish triangle pattern, and then the strong support at 1.5770. Note that below this level there will be a very massive sale.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

 

[bhanu545]

EUR/USD Wave Analysis for August 30, 2012

Wave Analysis:
During yesterday's trading session, EUR/USD failed to get over 1.2570 which resulted in price drop towards the lower line of the uptrend channel. Thus, the currency pair is of wait-and-see attitude which enables the growth within the boundaries of wave 5. In case of negative news, the pair may resume its downward move towards 24-level figure. Given that, indicators demonstrate unstable balance in which the market can operate till Bernanke’s speech on Friday.
Targets for Down Wave 1 or a:
1.2521 – 23.6% Fibonacci
1.2478 – 38.2% Fibonacci
Targets for Wave 5 into 5:
1.2568 – 161.8% Fibonacci
1.2613 – 200.0% Fibonacci
Summary and Trading Recommendations:
The most probable outcome is the continuation of the uptrend channel which was formed in 5 wave. Wave 5 into 5 may also continue its move enabling the rise towards 1.2568 and 1.2613 which is equal to 161.8% and 200.0% Fibonacci. The uptrend channel indicates the upward trend area, fixing below which will indicate a stronger downward move. After 5 into 5 wave formation, the pair may start going down under 1 or a wave which may push the currency pair lower towards 1.2521 and 1.2478 which is equal to 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

 

[bhanu545]

EUR/USD Sell Bellow 1.27 For August 31 /2012

Bernanke's speech in Jackson Hole surely marks the trend for the next few weeks. Is it possible that in his words there is a promise of quantitative easing? Despite the Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke is trying to do more or less to ease the situation, there is still a big problem in Europe.
Therefore, our outlook remains bearish for this pair, below the level of 1.27. Only a daily close above this level could change my mind about this pair.
Therefore, we recommend selling if see a bullish rally to the level of daily fractal 1.2680 and strong resistance level with targets at 1.2465 and 1.2343.
Currently the pair is in an uptrend channel, but in overall the pair has a strong downtrend.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012