Technical analysis on EU,GU and majors

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GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-08-06

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The spot rate has bounced off the lower limit of its medium term bearish channel at 1.5490 and is testing now the upper limit of this one at 1.5660. A breakthrough this level will release a good potential and initiate a violent bullish trend.
Technical indicators do not provide clears signals but are approach overbuy zone supporting the assumption of a decline. Moreover, this resistance represents a rebound of 62% of the decline which was registered between July 27th and August 02th.
A decline is expected in the short term but most probable and less risky scenario is a break of this resistance. Taking this into account, we recommend making a "buy stop" and buy when the spot rate will break its resistance at 1.5660 with a target of 1.5720.

Performed by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
 
EUR/USD Wave Analysis for August 6,2012

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EUR/USD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis the EUR/USD pair was trading in an upward move as we expected, developing impulsive (3) (coloured green). During the Friday's European session we could observe an ascending movement towards the 1.2290 level (daily high). Therefore, during the New York session the EUR/USD pair continued trading in a bullish mood and price hit a new 4-week high around 1.2390 level. Today during the early Asian session this major pair found resistance at 1.2442 and the price is currently trading around 1.2350 level. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.2041-1.2390-1.2132) with Take Profit 1 at 1.2480 (100% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.2695 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use support point at 1.2350 as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the EU Sentix Investor Confidence and U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.2088 (S2) 1.2175 (S1) 1.2228 (PP) 1.2314 (R1) 1.2401 (R2) 1.2454 (R3) 1.2540
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is likely to begin the upward movement. For this reason long positions at level 1.2400 with Stop Loss 1.2350 Take Profit 1 1.2480 and Take Profit 2 at 1.2695 are recommended.

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
 
GBP/USD Strong Resistance 1.5760 - For August 07, 2012 (Daily Strategy)

The British pound is growing, affected by the manufacturing data from the UK. As it is seen, poor data does not have a significant impact on peer leaders.
The pair broke the 1.5585 significant support, which increased the pair chances to negotiate in the upcoming days above the 1.56 level. Overcoming of 1.5760 could accelerate growth in the previous days but the pair was locked in the price range of 1.54 - 1.5765.
Therefore, a return to the level of 1.5590 will give us the opportunity to buy at low prices with the objective of 1.5760 resistance, a break above 1.5770 will be the beginning of a new sequence upward to 1.5945.
gbpaugust07.png

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
 
EUR/USD Bearish Outlook for August 07, 2012 (Daily Strategy)

The EUR/USD pair remains above 1.2395 fractal, an area that was moved during Monday session, despite the release of German factory orders data which demonstrated a higher than expected fall in July. This data in another context would have generated a significant drop in the pair, but for now pushed it back for only a few points.
It is possible that the euro can continue this upward trend, but on its way to the south the currency has many obstacles, for example, the level of 1.2485 is the resistance weekly, and the fractal above 1.2510 is a very strong level to overcome and stay above. On the other hand, the euro will continue to suffer from European crisis for a long period of time as no decision was taken.
Therefore, we recommend selling the 1.2485 level, with short term to the nearest support of 1.2210. The stop loss is placed above 1.2510 fractal.
euroaugusto07.png

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
 
EUR/USD Sell Below 1.2395 - August 08, 2012 (Daily Strategy)

The euro failed to overcome the resistance of 1.2440 and in is trading close to the 1.2307 support. Indeed, it seems that the level of 1.23 is the only thing that keeps this market right now.
So many promises can be of no use amid the crisis, it is necessary to act quickly. This seems to be something that the European authorities simply do not understand. Unfortunately, markets allow them to do this and we seem to be a bit of a cycle. However, it is almost impossible to look at this market and understand that every time pick is simply an opportunity to sell at higher prices.
Therefore, a return to the 1.2395 fractal level will be an opportunity to sell the pair back, with a first target 1.2307 and a break of 1.23, give a quick fall to 1.2210. Our stop loss is placed above the maximum of 1.2440.
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Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
 
GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for August 8, 2012

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The main tendency for the GBP/USD pair remains bullish. As we see, the pair was moving within three bullish channels which are depicted on the chart.
At earlier hours of today, the GBP/USD pair broke the lower limit of the Violet channel reaching the lower limit of the Yellow one around 1.5580 which expressed a significant bullish price action pushing the pair to the upside once again.
The GBP/USD pair is currently testing the backside of the lower limit of the broken Violet channel and the midline of the Yellow one around price level of 1.5665 which should constitute Intraday Resistance level as well as a valid SELL entry with SL located above 1.5700.
TP levels should be located at 1.5580, 1.5545 then 1.5505.

Performed by Mohamed Samy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
 
EUR/USD Bearish Outlook for August 09, 2012 (Daily Strategy)

The euro was affected by the ECB downgrading of growth expectations for the euro area by 2013 from 1% to 0.6%, which resulted in euro sale during the last hours.
At this time the pair is trading near the 1.2307 weekly support and is likely to demonstrate a rebound to the resistance of 1.2345, this level has served in previous days as a strong resistance. We recommend selling with objective at 1.2210.
Both, the MACD and trend indicators are showing a deeper downward sequence.
euroaugusto09.png

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
 
GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for August 9, 2012

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The main tendency for the GBP/USD pair was bullish this week. As we see, the pair has been moving within three bullish channels which are depicted on the chart. However, the pair is showing some bullish weakness which is manifested in the recent overlapping swings that are taking place within the current Yellow channel.
Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair met the intraday Resistance Level of 1.5665 which expressed a significant bearish price action till now pushing the pair to the downside to test the lower limit of the Violet channel around price level of 1.5645. If this is broken, the pair will be able to resume its bearish movement towards 1.5600, 1.5545 then 1.5505.
The upper limit of the Yellow channel around 1.5690-1.5700 is considered as a strong intraday Resistance Level and a valid SELL entry with SL located above 1.5735.

Performed by Mohamed Samy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
 
GBP/USD Sell Below 1.5680 for August 10, 2012 (Daily Strategy)

The pound sterling is quoted below weekly pivot line, so it means that a close below this level could push the currency down to 1.5506. As you know the market is trying to rebound in the levels of support, so it is likely to rebound towards the 1.5675. At this level we recommend selling to the nearest targeted support 1.5506.
Furthermore, if after trading session the pair is above 1.5690, we recommend close our short positions as during the next week we could see a recovery of the pound sterling.
Both, MACD and trend indicators are showing mixed trend.
augustgpbusd10.png

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
 
EUR/USD Ready To Push Higher - Analysis for August 10,2012

EURUSD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Aug-10_0905_AM_(45_min).png

EUR/USD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis the EUR/USD pair was trading in a downward move like we expected, this major pair is currently developing final C wave (coloured purple) of the bigger corrective wave 2 (coloured blue). Yesterday during the European and New York sessions we could observe a strong descending movement towards the 1.2266 level. At the moment the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.2260 level and we are expecting to see price higher today when the development of the impulsive 3 wave (coloured blue) starts. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.2133-1.2441-1.2259) with Take Profit 1 at 1.2563 (100% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.2759. To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation point at 1.2133 as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the EU French Industrial Production m/m, French Gov Budget Balance and U.S. Import Prices m/m, Federal Budget Balance data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.2198 (S2) 1.2245 (S1) 1.2273 (PP) 1.2319 (R1) 1.2366 (R2) 1.2394 (R3) 1.2440
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.2310 with Stop Loss 1.2133, Take Profit 1 1.2563 and Take Profit 2 1.2759 are recommended.

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
 
GBP/USD: Weekly Technical Levels for August 13 - 17, 2012

Weekly Technical Levels:
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Tip (s):

•R3 and S3 are regarded as clear indicators of the maximum range of extreme volatility, though it is possible to pass them through.

•Pivot lines work well on the sideways markets, as the prices are most likely to be located between the R1 and S1 lines.

•Within a strong trend the price is expected to be lower than the pivot point line and will continue the movement.

•In case of the breaking news release which may affect the market, the price is likely to go straight through R1 or S1 and even reach R2 & R3 or S2 & S3.

Observation (s):

If the trend is of an upside character, then the strength of the currency will be defined as following: EUR is an uptrend and USD is a downtrend.
Fibonacci retracement uses to determine accurate psychology level of support and resistance, and playing according to in this kind of period.
Fibonacci in a range trader (it is looks like the trend is trapping and going up or down, if you sell or buy for a long term in this period you'll go sure for losing your profit.
Stop Loss should NEVER exceed your maximum exposure amounts.
Usually the market has a high volatile, if the last day had a huge volatility.

Performed by Mourad El Keddani, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
 
EUR/USD: Weekly Technical Levels for August 13 - 17, 2012

eurusd_pp-13.png

eurusd--13.gif


Tip (s):
R3 and S3 are considered as clear indicators of the maximum range of extreme volatility, though it is possible to pass them through.
Pivot lines work well on the sideways markets, as the prices are most likely to be located between the R1 and S1 lines.
Within a strong trend the price is expected to be lower than the pivot point line and continue the movement.
In case of the breaking news release that may affect the market, the price is likely to go straight through R1 or S1 and even reach R2 & R3 or S2 & S3.

Observation (s):

If the trend is of an upside character, then the strength of the currency will be defined as following: EUR is an uptrend and USD is a downtrend.
Fibonacci retracement uses to determine accurate psychology level of support and resistance, and playing according to in this kind of period.
Fibonacci in a range trader (it is looks like the trend is trapping and going up or down, if you sell or buy for a long term in this period you'll go sure for losing your profit.
Stop Loss should NEVER exceed your maximum exposure amounts.
Usually the market has a high volatile, if the last day had a huge volatility.

Performed by Mourad El Keddani, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
 
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

The British pound was trying to break the resistance for five times since the beginning of June, moving average is at 200 periods (blue). Today it had attempts to overcome this level, but failed to fix above it. Now the pound is trading at 1.5701, you can see the graph and notice that the pair has attempts to overcome this level, and eventually did not manage to do this.
In case the pair exceeds this level and closes above the EMA of 200 periods, its nearest objective is at 1.5898 weekly resistance. At the moment our outlook is bearish, so we recommend selling at 1.5720 with targets at the uptrend channel around 1.5580.
The stop loss is placed above the maximum recorded around 1.5760.
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Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012-
 
Last edited:
EUR/USD Sell Below Fractal 1.2408 - August 14, 2012

The euro is trading above the weekly pivot point of 1.2324, this supportive dynamic keeps the pair within an upward trend and it is possible that the pair will continue the view up to 1.2408. This level is a strong weekly resistance, daily fractal is at 1.2410. Furthermore, given that there is a downward pressure, only break of 1.2324 could extend the fall towards 1.2280 and 1.2240.
Our outlook remains bearish for this pair, the indicators show exhaustion in volatility and a downward sequence.
It seems that this pair is trying to form a rising wedge pattern. This is usually a bearish signal and sell signal is confirmed, it is possible that the upward rally reaches 1.2526; after we enter this area we will begin selling.
Our stop loss is placed above the maximum of the last week.
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Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
 
GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-08-15

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The spot rate broke the intermediate support of its medium term bullish channel at 1.5680 leading to acceleration. A pull back on these levels is expected before reaching the lower limit of its channel to 1.5620. Furthermore an exit of its channel would release a significant potential and initiate a bearish trend.

Technical indicators provide sell signals supporting the assumption of a decline in a short term. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement. Moreover, the inferior band strengthens the support at 1.5660.
We recommend to sell the spot rate on the level of 1.5680 with the 1st objective at 1.5620 and then at 1.5600. A breakthrough 1.5700 will invalidate this scenario.

Performed by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
 
EUR/USD Buy Above 1.2210 For August 15, 2012

Yesterday the euro exceeded the level of 1.2345, but failed to close above this level, as earlier it was both support and resistance. At this moment the single currency trades below the weekly pivot and is likely to rebound to 1.2324 before continuing its downward trend to the level of 1.2210. Therefore, we recommend buying at the support level of 1.2206 or a close at 4-hour chart above 1.2324, both with objectives to the 1.2408 resistance.
The low volatility in the market now forces to take a short position while the euro is a losing proposition because the interest rate differential is against you.
The reality is that the situation within the European Union has not changed much, regardless of what politicians try to say, since they are practically breaking their arms patting themselves on the back.
The medium term outlook remains bearish, we therefore, expect resistance levels to sell the pair back.
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Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
 
GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-08-16

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The spot rate evolves between the range of 1.5660-1.5720 since august 10th. This morning it broke the intermediate support of its medium term bullish channel at 1.5660 leading to acceleration. It is testing now the lower limit of its channel at 1.5630 suggesting a rebound. However, a break of these levels would free a large potential and initiate a bearish channel.

Technical indicators provide sell signals supporting the assumption of a decline in a short term. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement. Moreover, the inferior band has been broken suggesting the initiation of a new trend.
The spot rate tests the lower limit of its channel for this reason we recommend 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a rebound where we recommend a buy on the level of 1.5630 with the 1st objective at 1.5690 and then at 1.5720. A breakthrough 1.5600 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is the hypothesis of a break of its support, and here then we recommend a “sell stop”. We suggest to sell the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its support of 1.5630 with the 1st objective at 1.5570 and then at 1.5550. A breakthrough 1.5650 will invalidate this scenario.

Performed by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
 
EUR/USD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-08-16

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The spot rate tested this week the upper limit of its medium term bearish channel at 1.2390 and declined. It is testing now the intermediate support of this one at 1.2260 and seems to initiate a rebound. However, a break of these levels would release a significant potential and enable the lower limit of its channel at 1.2210.
Technical indicators do not provide clear signal but until the support is not broken, the assumption of a rebound is most likely. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement. Moreover, the inferior band strengthens the intermediate support of its channel suggesting a more violent movement in case of break.
The spot rate tests its support that is why we recommend 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a rebound. In this case we recommend a buy on the level of 1.2260 with the 1st objective at 1.2320 and then at 1.2340. A break through 1.2240 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is the hypothesis of a break of its support, here we recommend a “sell stop”. We suggest to sell the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its support of 1.2260 with the 1st objective at 1.2200 and then at 1.2180. A breakthrough 1.2280 will invalidate this scenario.

Performed by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
 
EUR/USD Bearish Outlook for August 17, 2012

The euro traded yesterday above weekly support of 1.2324 which can be regarded as the relief from downward pressure. However, we are in the price range of 1.2440 and 1.2206, and the pair may fluctuate within these levels.
As you know, there are a lot of problems in Europe at this time, which prevented me from buying this coin. Furthermore, we must admit that the problem is so complex that it is easy to understand. This is one of the worst scenarios for investment.
The fact that the euro is doing very well could have a lot to do with the fact that almost no volatility at the moment.
So our long term outlook remains bearish. We may see a recovery of the euro if it comes out at the mentioned above price range. 1.26 may be a strong level of resistance.
In the short term we recommend selling at 1.2408 strong resistance level with targets at 1.2324 and 1.2210, the stop loss is placed above 1.2450.
eurinaugust17.jpg

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
 
GBP/USD Sell Below 1.5740 for August 17

The pound sterling failed to hold above 1.5740 resistance, currently it is quoted below this level and it is likely that the downward pressure will bring it to 1.5640 next support level. It is possible that the currency will try to break this level again. If the attempt is unsuccessful, we recommend selling on the return 1.5732, with targets at 1.5646, the stop loss is placed above the highs of 1.5770.
The indicators are showing negative divergence.
gbpusdaugust17.jpg

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
 
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