Technical Analysis from IFC Markets

IFC Markets

Master Trader
Oct 31, 2012
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84
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Live Cattle Technical Analysis - Live Cattle Trading: 2022-03-16​


Live Cattle Technical Analysis Summary​

Buy Stop։ Above 139​

Stop Loss: Below 132​



RSI Neutral
MACD Sell
MA(200) Neutral
Fractals Buy
Parabolic SAR Buy
Bollinger Bands Neutral


Live Cattle Chart Analysis​



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Live Cattle Technical Analysis​

On the daily timeframe, LCATTLE: D1 failed to break down the support line in the form of a 200-day moving average and is trying to get back into a long-term uptrend. A number of indicators of technical analysis formed signals for further growth. We do not rule out a bullish movement if LCATTLE rises above its latest high and returns to the long-term uptrend at 139. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial risk limit is possible below the 200-day moving average line, the Parabolic signal and the last two lower fractals: 132. After opening a pending order, we move the stop following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal low. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders after making a trade can switch to a four-hour chart and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (132) without activating the order (139), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis of Commodities - Live Cattle​

The slaughter of cattle has increased in the USA. Will the LCATTLE quotes continue to rise?

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), cattle slaughter on March 14 this year amounted to 125 thousand heads. This is 17,000 more than the same date in 2021. An increase in slaughter in the US is observed for the 2nd consecutive week. An additional positive factor for beef could be the shutdown of the JBS Brazil meat processing plant due to the Covid-19 outbreak. In addition, the USDA previously reported a reduction in the number of cows and calves in the United States and Canada by 2% y/y to 103 million years on January 1, 2022.
 

IFC Markets

Master Trader
Oct 31, 2012
1,934
9
84
London (Great Britain)
www.ifcmarkets.com

Orange Juice Technical Analysis - Orange Juice Trading: 2022-03-22​



Orange Juice Technical Analysis Summary​



Buy Stop։ Above 148​

Stop Loss: Below 133

Indicator Signal
RSI Neutral
MACD Buy
MA(200) Neutral
Fractals Neutral
Parabolic SAR Buy
Bollinger Bands Neutral


Orange Juice Chart Analysis​



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Orange Juice Technical Analysis​

On the daily timeframe, ORANGE: D1 went up from the triangle. Some technical analysis indicators have formed signals for further growth. We do not rule out a bullish movement if ORANGE breaks above the last high of 148. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial risk limit is possible below the Parabolic signal, the last three lower fractals and the 200-day moving average line: 133. After opening a pending order, we move the stop after the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal low. Thus, we are changing the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders after making a trade can go to the four-hour chart and set a stop-loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (133) without activating the order (148), it is recommended to delete the order: the market is experiencing internal changes that were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis of Commodities - Orange Juice

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) once again lowered its forecast for the US orange crop. Will the ORANGE quotes continue to increase?

In March, the USDA estimated the US orange crop for the 2021/2022 crop season at 3.78 million tons. This is 15% less than in the previous 2020/2021 season and 3% less than the forecast published in February this year. Another positive factor for quotes may be the data of the Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters that the export of orange juice from Brazil from the beginning of the current season in July 2021 to February 2022 decreased by 1% compared to the same period of the previous season and amounted to 658, 4 thousand tons. Note that the Citriculture Defense Fund (Fundecitrus) predicts a 10.2% reduction in Brazil's orange crop due to bad weather. According to Fundecitrus, the export of orange juice to China for 8 months of the current season increased by 60% to 51.7 thousand tons. However, while its share in Brazilian exports still does not exceed 10%. At the same time, about 64% of juice is supplied to Europe and 20% - to the USA. China ranks 3rd.
 

IFC Markets

Master Trader
Oct 31, 2012
1,934
9
84
London (Great Britain)
www.ifcmarkets.com

Bitcoin/USD Technical Analysis - Bitcoin/USD Trading: 2022-03-25​


Bitcoin/USD Technical Analysis Summary​



Buy Stop։ Above 44655​

Stop Loss: Below 43562​

Indicator Signal
RSI Neutral
MACD Buy
MA(200) Buy
Fractals Buy
Parabolic SAR Buy


Bitcoin/USD Chart Analysis​



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Bitcoin/USD Technical Analysis​

The BTCUSD technical analysis of the price chart on 1-hour timeframe shows BTCUSD: H1 is rising above the 200-period moving average MA(200) which is rising while the RSI indicator is approaching the overbought zone. We believe the bullish momentum will continue after the price breaches above 44655. A level above this can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to buy. The stop loss can be placed below the fractal low at 43562. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved to the next fractal low indicator, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis of CRYPTO - Bitcoin/USD​

A member of parliament of Russia mentioned Russia could agree to payments for its natural gas in Bitcoins too. Will the BTCUSD price continue rebounding?

The head of Russia’s Energy Committee at the State the lower house of parliament that Russia could have settlements for gas with countries based upon mutually agreed set of currencies and “if there are bitcoins — we will trade in bitcoins.” Earlier on Wednesday President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia will ask “unfriendly” nations to pay with rubles for the natural gas they buy.
 

IFC Markets

Master Trader
Oct 31, 2012
1,934
9
84
London (Great Britain)
www.ifcmarkets.com

NZD/CAD Technical Analysis - NZD/CAD Trading: 2022-03-29​


NZD/CAD Technical Analysis Summary​



Sell Stop։ Below 0,8607​

Stop Loss: Above 0,8807​

Indicator Signal
RSI Neutral
MACD Sell
MA(200) Neutral
Fractals Neutral
Parabolic SAR Sell
Bollinger Bands Neutral


NZD/CAD Chart Analysis​



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NZD/CAD Technical Analysis​

On the daily timeframe, NZDCAD: D1 failed to exceed the 200-day moving average and started to decline. The chart approached the uptrend support line. It must be broken down before opening a position to sell. A number of indicators of technical analysis formed signals for further decline. We do not rule out a bearish move if NZDCAD: D1 falls below the last 2 down fractals: 0.8607. This level can be used as the entry point. Initial risk cap is possible above the last 3 upper fractals, the 200-day moving average and the Parabolic signal: 0.8807. After opening a pending order, move the stop following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal high. Thus, we are changing the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders after making a trade can go to the four-hour chart and set a stop-loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (0.8807) without activating the order (0.8607), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis of Forex - NZD/CAD

The Chinese authorities have announced a lockdown due to the novel coronavirus outbreak. Will the decline in NZDCAD quotes continue?

The downward movement means the New Zealand dollar is weaker against the Canadian dollar. According to Statistics New Zealand, China's share of New Zealand's exports has been about 50% over the past 12 months. The Chinese lockdown could further worsen New Zealand's foreign trade performance. It should be noted that in February of this year, the New Zealand Trade Balance 12-Months (trade balance for 12 months with all countries) has already demonstrated a record deficit of -$8.37 billion. In turn, the Canadian dollar may strengthen due to high world oil prices and natural gas. Some investors are hoping for a Bank of Canada rate hike at the next April 13 meeting. Now it stands at 0.5% with inflation of 5.7% y/y in February. It should be noted that the meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will also be held on April 13. Its rate is now equal to 1% with inflation in the 4th quarter of 2021 5.9% y/y. The New Zealand Consumer Price Index for Q1 2022 will be released on April 20. According to forecasts, it can fly up to 6.4% y/y.
 

IFC Markets

Master Trader
Oct 31, 2012
1,934
9
84
London (Great Britain)
www.ifcmarkets.com

Feeder Cattle Technical Analysis - Feeder Cattle Trading: 2022-03-30​



Feeder Cattle Technical Analysis Summary​

Buy Stop։ Above 165​

Stop Loss: Above 153,5​

Indicator Signal
RSI Neutral
MACD Buy
MA(200) Neutral
Fractals Buy
Parabolic SAR Buy
Bollinger Bands Neutral


Feeder Cattle Chart Analysis​



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Feeder Cattle Technical Analysis​

On the daily timeframe, FCATTLE: D1 is in the long-term neutral trend. It is moving towards its upper border. A number of indicators of technical analysis formed signals for further growth. We don't rule out a bullish movement if FCATTLE: D1 rises above its latest high of 165. This level can be used as an entry point. Initial risk cap is possible below the 200-day moving average, the last two down fractals, the Parabolic signal, and the lower Bollinger band: 153.5. After opening a pending order, we move the stop following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal minimum. Thus, we are changing the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders after making a trade can go to the four-hour chart and set a stop-loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (153.5) without activating the order (165), it is recommended to delete the order: the market is experiencing internal changes that were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis of Commodities - Feeder Cattle​

U.S. beef production is growing faster than the number of cattle. Will the FCATTLE quotes continue to rise?

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), U.S. Beef production was 2.25 billion pounds in February 2022, up 7% from February last year. 2.69 million heads of cattle were slaughtered for meat (+6% yoy). At the same time, as of March 1, 2022, there were 12.2 million cows and calves on feedlots in the United States (Cattle and calves on feed). This is only 1% more than on 1 March 2021. Theoretically, such a discrepancy between production and stocks could indicate an increase in demand for US beef. On Monday, March 29, 124 thousand cows were slaughtered in the USA. This is 5,000 more than last Monday and 7,000 more than a year ago on the same date. In addition to all this, it can also be noted that the cost of cattle in the feedlots (Feeder Cattle) is now at the level of August last year. During this time, feed grain prices have risen by almost 40%.
 

IFC Markets

Master Trader
Oct 31, 2012
1,934
9
84
London (Great Britain)
www.ifcmarkets.com

Soybean Meal Technical Analysis - Soybean Meal Trading: 2022-04-04​



Soybean Meal Technical Analysis Summary​

Sell Stop։ Below 445​

Stop Loss: Above 490​





Indicator Signal
RSI Sell
MACD Sell
MA(200) Neutral
Fractals Sell
Parabolic SAR Sell
Bollinger Bands Sell


Soybean Meal Chart Analysis​



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Soybean Meal Technical Analysis​



On the daily timeframe, SOYBM: D1 broke down the support line of the uptrend. A number of technical analysis indicators formed signals for further decline. We don't rule out a bearish movement if SOYBM: D1 drops below the lower Bollinger band: 445. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial risk limit may be higher than the high since June 2014, the last up fractal and the Parabolic signal: 490. After opening a pending order, we move the stop following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal high. Thus, we are changing the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders after making a trade can go to the four-hour chart and set a stop-loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (490) without activating the order (445), it is recommended to delete the order: the market is experiencing internal changes that were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis of Commodities - Soybean Meal​



The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported an increase in the area under soybean crops and its stocks. Will the decline in the SOYBM quotes continue?

In 2022, US soybean plantings increased by 4% compared to 2021 to 91 million acres. As of April 1, 2022, soybean stocks in the United States amounted to 1.93 billion bushels. This is a 24% increase compared to soybean stocks at the same date in 2021. Another negative factor for quotations of soybeans may be data on its active sale in China from state reserves. It is possible that this was required due to the disruption of food supplies to regions where a lockdown was introduced amid the outbreak of Covid-19. As soybean imports continue, this situation carries the risk of a glut of soybeans in China. Quotes of semi-finished soybeans (soymeal) on Friday, April 1, on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, collapsed by 6%. This is the highest daily drop in 10 years.
 

IFC Markets

Master Trader
Oct 31, 2012
1,934
9
84
London (Great Britain)
www.ifcmarkets.com

Ethereum / USD Technical Analysis - Ethereum / USD Trading: 2022-04-06​



Ethereum / USD Technical Analysis Summary​

Sell Stop:Below 3250.15​

Stop Loss:Above 3370.40​



Indicator Signal
RSI Neutral
MACD Sell
MA(200) Sell
Fractals Sell
Parabolic SAR Buy
Fibonacci Sell


Ethereum / USD Chart Analysis​



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Ethereum / USD Technical Analysis​

The ETHUSD technical analysis of the price chart on 1-hour timeframe shows ETHUSD: H1 has breached below the 200-period moving average MA(200) following a breach below the support line after multiple tests of. We believe the bearish momentum will continue after the price breaches below 3250.15. A level below this can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to sell. The stop loss can be placed above 3370.40. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved to the next fractal high indicator, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis of CRYPTO - Ethereum / USD​

Ethereum gas fees fell by 90% in 6 months. Will the ETHUSD price reverse its retreating?

The average gas fee on the Ethereum network is currently $5.81, 90% less than the average charged in November 2021, according to crypto data intelligence platform Santiment. A drop in transaction fees is bullish for a crypto price. However the current setup is bearish for ETHUSD.
 

IFC Markets

Master Trader
Oct 31, 2012
1,934
9
84
London (Great Britain)
www.ifcmarkets.com

Ethereum / USD Technical Analysis - Ethereum / USD Trading: 2022-04-12​



Ethereum / USD Technical Analysis Summary​



Sell Stop: Below 3005.02​

Stop Loss: Above 3060.65​



Indicator Signal
RSI Neutral
MACD Buy
MA(200) Sell
Fractals Sell
Parabolic SAR Buy
Accumulation/Distribution Sell


Ethereum / USD Chart Analysis​

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Ethereum / USD Technical Analysis​

The ETHUSD technical analysis of the price chart on 1-hour timeframe shows ETHUSD: H1 is retreating under the 200-period moving average MA(200) following multiple tests of resistance line. We believe the bearish momentum will continue after the price breaches below 3005.02. A level below this can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to sell. The stop loss can be placed above 3060.65. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved to the next fractal high indicator, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis of CRYPTO - Ethereum / USD

Ethereum developers ran a test of a network upgrade that went well. Will the ETHUSD price reverse its retreating?

On Monday Ethereum developers began a test for an upgrade that would dramatically decrease the amount of energy used by the blockchain and make it eco-friendly. The test was a preparation for what’s called the “merge,” which aims to change dramatically how transactions are validated on the blockchain. Ethereum currently relies on proof of work, which requires that crypto miners complete complex calculations to validate transactions. This process consumes a huge amount of computer power and is often criticized due to its environmental impact. Under proof of stake, users would be able to validate transactions according to how many coins they contribute, or stake, to the network. In return for staking more coins, users will have a higher likelihood of being chosen to validate transactions on the network and earn a reward. After the real merge, Ethereum’s crypto mining would not involve high power consumption and the supply of new Ether would likely decline because fewer coins are expected to be issued. And institutional investment in the Ethereum network is expected to increase. An expected shift to proof of stake validation is deemed to be bullish for a cryptocurrency. However the current setup is bearish for ETHUSD.
 

IFC Markets

Master Trader
Oct 31, 2012
1,934
9
84
London (Great Britain)
www.ifcmarkets.com

AUD/USD Technical Analysis - AUD/USD Trading: 2022-04-14​



Boeing Technical Analysis Summary​

Buy Stop։ Above 183.31​

Stop Loss: Below 174.45​



Indicator Signal
RSI Neutral
MACD Buy
Donchian ChannelNeutral
MA(200) Sell
Fractals Buy
Parabolic SAR Buy


Boeing Chart Analysis​



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Boeing Technical Analysis​

The technical analysis of the Boeing stock price chart on 4-hour timeframe shows #S-BA,H4 is rebounding toward the 200-period moving average MA(200) after hitting one-month low two days ago. We believe the bullish momentum will continue after the price breaches above the upper boundary of Donchian channel at 183.31. This level can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to buy. The stop loss can be placed below the lower boundary of Donchian channel at 174.45. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal low, following Parabolic indicator signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level (229.48) without reaching the order (192.42), we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis of Stocks - Boeing​

Boeing reported it removed over 100 plane orders from its backlog list as doesn’t expect them to be delivered. Will the Boeing stock price continue retreating?

The Boeing Company said it moved orders for 141 of its airplanes into accounting limbo due to the war in Ukraine, meaning it no longer expects the jets to be delivered. The orders were mainly for Russian carriers. Expectations of lower production are bearish for a company’s stock price. At the same time Boeing reported plane deliveries nearly doubled in March – to 41 from the 22 it delivered in February, and up from 29 a year ago. It cited rebounding travel and cargo demand. Boeing said year-to-date deliveries stood at 95 aircraft. For the first three months of the year Boeing's orders, net of canceled orders or swapped models, rose to 145 from 107. Rebounding demand for aircrafts is an upside risk for Boeing stock.
 

IFC Markets

Master Trader
Oct 31, 2012
1,934
9
84
London (Great Britain)
www.ifcmarkets.com

Copper Technical Analysis - Copper Trading: 2022-04-19​



Copper Technical Analysis Summary​



Buy Stop։ Above 4,86​

Stop Loss: Below 4,46​



Indicator Signal
RSI Neutral
MACD Buy
MA(200) Neutral
Fractals Neutral
Parabolic SAR Buy
Bollinger Bands Buy




Copper Chart Analysis​



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Copper Technical Analysis​

On the daily timeframe, COPPER: D1 is moving towards the upper border of the growing price channel. A number of technical analysis indicators formed signals for further growth. We do not rule out a bullish movement if COPPER rises above its latest up fractal and upper Bollinger band: 4.86. This level can be used as an entry point. Initial risk cap possible below Parabolic signal, latest down fractal, lower Bollinger band and 200-day moving average line: 4.46. After opening a pending order, we move the stop following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal low. Thus, we are changing the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders after making a trade can switch to a four-hour chart and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (4.46) without activating the order (4.86), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that were not taken into account.



Fundamental Analysis of Commodities - Copper​



China released good economic data. Will the increase in COPPER quotes continue?

Chinese GDP in the 1st quarter of 2022 grew by 4.8%. This is more than expected (+4.4%) and more than the growth in the 4th quarter of last year (+4%). China consumes more than half of all copper in the world. Its economic growth usually leads to an increase in demand for non-ferrous metals. We note that copper inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 8.2% over the week. In addition to signs of an increase in global demand, an additional positive for copper may be the emerging lack of supply. Last week, Canadian company Barrick Gold reported a 19.8% decrease in the production of this metal in the 1st quarter of this year compared to the 4th quarter of 2021. The reason for this was the problems at the Lumwana mine. In Peru, because of the protests of the population, the work of the Las Bambas copper mine was again suspended. The Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) raised its 2022 global copper price forecast to $4.4/lb from $3.95 in January.
 

IFC Markets

Master Trader
Oct 31, 2012
1,934
9
84
London (Great Britain)
www.ifcmarkets.com

Netflix Inc. Technical Analysis - Netflix Inc. Trading: 2022-04-21​



Netflix Inc. Technical Analysis Summary​

Sell Stop։ Below 212.43​

Stop Loss: Above 231.65​



Indicator Signal
RSI Buy
MACD Sell
Donchian Channel Sell
MA(200) Sell
Fractals Sell
Parabolic SAR Sell


Netflix Inc. Chart Analysis​



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Netflix Inc. Technical Analysis​

The technical analysis of the Netflix stock price chart on daily timeframe shows #S-NFLX, Daily has breached below the trading range under 200-day moving average MA(200) which is falling itself. We believe the bearish momentum will continue after the price breaches below the lower boundary of Donchian channel at 212.43. This level can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to sell. The stop loss can be placed above 231.65. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal high, following Parabolic indicator signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level (231.65) without reaching the order (212.43), we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis of Stocks - Netflix Inc.​

Netflix stock plunged 35.1% after worse than expected Q1 results. Will the Netflix stock price continue retreating?

First quarter Netflix results missed Wall Street forecasts which resulted in a selloff of streaming service’s stock yesterday. Netflix reported the loss of 200,000 subscribers in its first quarter, falling well short of its modest predictions that it would add 2.5 million subscribers. It announced revenue of $7.87 billion versus anticipated revenue of $7.9 billion. Netflix last reported a subscriber loss in 2011. Netflix’s decision in early March to suspend service in Russia after Ukraine invasion resulted in the loss of 700,000 members. At the same time the company said it expects second-quarter net paid subscribers to decline 2.0 million compared with 1.5 million net adds in the year ago quarter. Falling subscribers number is a bearish factor for streaming services company’s stock.



Netflix Inc. Chart Analysis

Netflix Inc. Technical Analysis

The technical analysis of the Netflix stock price chart on daily timeframe shows #S-NFLX, Daily has breached below the trading range under 200-day moving average MA(200) which is falling itself. We believe the bearish momentum will continue after the price breaches below the lower boundary of Donchian channel at 212.43. This level can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to sell. The stop loss can be placed above 231.65. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal high, following Parabolic indicator signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level (231.65) without reaching the order (212.43), we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis of Stocks - Netflix Inc.

Netflix stock plunged 35.1% after worse than expected Q1 results. Will the Netflix stock price continue retreating?

First quarter Netflix results missed Wall Street forecasts which resulted in a selloff of streaming service’s stock yesterday. Netflix reported the loss of 200,000 subscribers in its first quarter, falling well short of its modest predictions that it would add 2.5 million subscribers. It announced revenue of $7.87 billion versus anticipated revenue of $7.9 billion. Netflix last reported a subscriber loss in 2011. Netflix’s decision in early March to suspend service in Russia after Ukraine invasion resulted in the loss of 700,000 members. At the same time the company said it expects second-quarter net paid subscribers to decline 2.0 million compared with 1.5 million net adds in the year ago quarter. Falling subscribers number is a bearish factor for streaming services company’s stock.
 

IFC Markets

Master Trader
Oct 31, 2012
1,934
9
84
London (Great Britain)
www.ifcmarkets.com

Oats Technical Analysis - Oats Trading: 2022-04-25​



Oats Technical Analysis Summary​



Sell Stop։ Below 700​

Stop Loss: Above 780​



Indicator Signal
RSI Sell
MACD Sell
MA(200) Neutral
Fractals Neutral
Parabolic SAR Sell
Bollinger Bands Neutral


Oats Chart Analysis​



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Oats Technical Analysis​

On the daily timeframe, OATS: D1 failed to break through the upper border of the long-term triangle and is moving towards its lower border. A number of technical analysis indicators formed signals for further decline. We don't rule out a bearish movement if OATS: D1 falls below the latest low: 700. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial risk limit may be higher than the historical high, the last up fractal, the upper Bollinger band and the Parabolic signal: 780. After opening a pending order, we move the stop following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal high. Thus, we are changing the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders after making a trade can go to the four-hour chart and set a stop-loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (780) without activating the order (700), it is recommended to delete the order: the market is undergoing internal changes that were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis of Commodities - Oats​

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has cut its global oat consumption forecast. Will the OATS quotes continue to decline?

In its April review, the USDA cut its global oat consumption forecast for the 2021/2022 season to 22.9 million tones. This is 8.2% less than in the 2020/2021 season and 1.7% less than the forecast published in March. The forecast for oat consumption in the US this season remained at the same level of 2.02 million tons. Another negative factor was Russia's message about limiting the export of various types of grain in the 2021/2022 season. Russian oats have not yet been included in this list, and its supply to the world market may even increase. USDA predicts an increase in oat exports from Russia in the 2021/2022 season by 67% compared to the previous season - 150 thousand tons. Russia occupies the 2nd place in the world in the export of oats after Canada, and the European Union is in the 3rd place.
 

IFC Markets

Master Trader
Oct 31, 2012
1,934
9
84
London (Great Britain)
www.ifcmarkets.com

USD/SEK Technical Analysis - USD/SEK Trading: 2022-04-26​


USD/SEK Technical Analysis Summary​



Buy Stop։ Above 9,72​

Stop Loss: Below 9,17​



Indicator Signal
RSI Neutral
MACD Buy
MA(200) Neutral
Fractals Buy
Parabolic SAR Buy
Bollinger Bands Buy


USD/SEK Chart Analysis​



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USD/SEK Technical Analysis​

On the daily timeframe, USDSEK: D1 is in a long-term uptrend and has come out of the wedge. Some indicators of technical analysis have formed signals for a further increase. We do not rule out a bullish movement if USDSEK: D1 rises above the last high of 9.72. This level can be used as an entry point. Initial risk cap is possible below the Parabolic signal, the last four down fractals, the lower Bollinger band and the 200-day moving average line: 9.17. After opening a pending order, we move the stop following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal low. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders after making a trade can switch to a four-hour chart and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (9.17) without activating the order (9.72), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis of Forex - USD/SEK​

Investors may be disappointed by the outcome of the meeting of the Central Bank of Sweden. Will the USDSEK quotes continue to rise?

The next meeting of Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) will be held on April 28. Most likely he will keep the rate at 0%. Investors do not exclude its increase at the next meeting on June 30. Meanwhile, inflation in Sweden reached 6% in March. In April, its further growth to 6.8% is expected. New data for April will be published on May 12. In addition to the Riksbank meeting, significant statistics are expected to be released this week in Sweden. On April 27, data on unemployment, the producer price index and the balance of foreign trade in goods will be released. Retail sales, GDP for the 1st quarter of 2022 (Sweden Gross Domestic Product) and a number of other economic indicators will be released on April 28. An additional negative for the Swedish krona could be an increase in political risks against the backdrop of the planned entry of Sweden into NATO.
 

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Lean Hog Technical Analysis - Lean Hog Trading: 2022-05-02​



Lean Hog Technical Analysis Summary​



Sell Stop։ Below 104​

Stop Loss: Above 118.5​





Indicator Signal
RSI Neutral
MACD Sell
MA(200) Neutral
Fractals Sell
Parabolic SAR Sell
Bollinger Bands Sell


Lean Hog Chart Analysis​



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Lean Hog Technical Analysis​

On the daily timeframe, LHOG: D1 went down from the rising channel. A number of technical analysis indicators formed signals for further decline. We do not rule out a bearish movement if LHOG: D1 drops below its latest low and lower Bollinger band: 104. This level can be used as an entry point. Initial risk cap possible above latest up fractal, high since June 2021, upper Bollinger band and Parabolic signal: 118.5. After opening a pending order, we move the stop following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal high. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders after making a trade can switch to a four-hour chart and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (118.5) without activating the order (104), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis of Commodities - Lean Hog​

In the United States, stocks of frozen pork have increased. Will the decline in LHOG quotes continue?

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), stocks of frozen pork in the United States as of March 31, 2022 amounted to 487.2 million pounds. This is 8% more than on the same date in 2021 and 1.5% more than on February 28, 2022. It should be noted that in March of this year, hog slaughter in the United States decreased by 4% compared to March last year and amounted to 11.25 million heads. Pork production also fell 4% (to 2.46 billion pounds). Theoretically, an increase in inventories with a decrease in production may indicate a decrease in demand. It can be noted that the slaughter of pigs in the United States for the whole of 2021 decreased by 2% (to 129 million heads) compared to 2020. According to the USDA, the slaughter of pigs last week amounted to 1.903 million heads. This is 1.3% less than in the same week in 2021.
 

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GBP/AUD Technical Analysis - GBP/AUD Trading: 2022-05-03​




GBP/AUD Technical Analysis Summary​



Buy Stop։ Above 1.79​

Stop Loss: Below 1.736​





Indicator Signal
RSI Neutral
MACD Buy
MA(200) Neutral
Fractals Neutral
Parabolic SAR Buy
Bollinger Bands Neutral


GBP/AUD Chart Analysis​



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GBP/AUD Technical Analysis​

On the daily timeframe, GBPAUD: D1 is moving towards the upper border of the growing price channel. A number of technical analysis indicators formed signals for further growth. We do not rule out a bullish movement if GBPAUD: D1 rises above its latest up fractal and upper Bollinger band: 1.79. This level can be used as an entry point. Initial risk cap is possible below the Parabolic signal, the last 2 down fractals and the lower Bollinger band: 1.736. After opening a pending order, we move the stop following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal low. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders after making a trade can switch to a four-hour chart and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (1.736) without activating the order (1.79), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis of Forex - GBP/AUD​

This week the meetings of the central banks of Australia and Britain will be held. Will the GBPAUD quotes continue to rise?

The meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be held on May 3, Tuesday morning. Inflation in Australia was 5.1% y/y in the 1st quarter of 2022. If the RBA does not raise the rate, then this may have a negative impact on the Australian dollar. It is difficult to predict the decision, since parliamentary elections will be held in Australia on May 21. Depending on their results, the government may change. However, some market participants do not rule out an increase in the RBA rate to 0.25% from 0.1%. The Bank of England (BoE) will meet on May 5th. Theoretically, it is possible to increase its rate to 1% from 0.75%. British inflation is larger than Australian inflation, but it is published monthly rather than quarterly. In March, inflation in Britain amounted to 7% y/y. April data will be released on May 18. In Australia, inflation for the 2nd quarter will be published only at the end of July.
 

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COFFEE Technical Analysis - COFFEE Trading: 2022-05-09​



COFFEE Technical Analysis Summary​

Sell Stop։ Below 209​

Stop Loss: Above 239​



Indicator Signal
RSI Neutral
MACD Sell
MA(200) Sell
Fractals Sell
Parabolic SAR Sell
Bollinger Bands Neutral


COFFEE Chart Analysis​



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COFFEE Technical Analysis​

On the daily timeframe, COFFEE: D1 has broken down the support line of the long-term uptrend and the bearish flag. A number of technical analysis indicators formed signals for further decline. We do not rule out a bearish movement if COFFEE: D1 falls below the lower Bollinger Band and the latest low: 209. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial risk limit is possible above the 200-day moving average line, the last three upper fractals, the upper Bollinger band and the Parabolic signal: 239. After opening a pending order, we move the stop following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal high. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders after making a trade can switch to a four-hour chart and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (239) without activating the order (209), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis of Commodities - COFFEE​

A noticeable strengthening of the US dollar may have a negative impact on the quotes of agricultural commodities. Will COFFEE quotes continue to decline?

The Fed raised the rate to 1% from 0.5%. Against this background, the US dollar index has updated a 20-year high (since December 2002). For 12 months, it has risen by almost 14%. Theoretically, this may contribute to the continuation of the correction of coffee quotes, which is traded in the US currency. An additional negative may be the emerging reduction in demand in China due to the coronavirus lockdown. In addition, we note the weakening of the Brazilian real, which is a bearish factor for coffee. Against the backdrop of the political crisis, deliveries of arabica coffee to Russia fell by 72% m/m in March and to Ukraine by 62% m/m. Russia is the 5th largest coffee importer in the world. The United States and the European Union are in the lead. It is now experiencing record inflation, which may also cause a reduction in demand for coffee. It should be emphasized that continued drought in Brazil can support coffee quotes. The agency Somar Meteorologia has reported a lack of rainfall in the state of Minas Gerais, which produces almost a third of the country's coffee.
 

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USD/CAD Technical Analysis - USD/CAD Trading: 2022-05-10​


USD/CAD Technical Analysis Summary​

Buy Stop։ Above 1,3​

Stop Loss: Below 1,266​



Indicator Signal
RSI Neutral
MACD Buy
MA(200) Neutral
Fractals Buy
Parabolic SAR Buy
Bollinger Bands Neutral


USD/CAD Chart Analysis​



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USD/CAD Technical Analysis​

On the daily timeframe, USDCAD: D1 has broken the long-term resistance line up. A number of technical analysis indicators formed signals for further growth. We do not rule out a bullish movement if USDCAD: D1 rises above its latest high and upper Bollinger band: 1.3. This level can be used as an entry point. Initial risk cap possible below the Parabolic signal, 200-day moving average and the last two down fractals: 1.266. After opening a pending order, we move the stop following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal low. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders after making a trade can switch to a four-hour chart and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (1.266) without activating the order (1.3), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis of Forex - USD/CAD​

Correction of world oil prices may have a negative impact on the Canadian economy. Will the USDCAD quotes continue to rise?

From January to April 2022, China reduced oil imports by 4.8% y/y. The main reason for this was the lockdown due to a new outbreak of coronavirus in Shanghai and some other regions. In addition, the European Union and Japan are going to stop importing Russian oil and generally reduce the consumption of hydrocarbons. All this can have a negative impact on global demand. Meanwhile, the export of oil and oil products occupies the largest share in Canada's total exports (20%). Therefore, the dynamics of the Canadian dollar may depend on oil prices. Last week, the Canada Trade Balance for March ($2.486 billion) was published, which turned out to be worse than expected. This week in Canada is not expected to release important economic data. In the US, the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index for April will be published on Wednesday and Thursday. They can affect the USDCAD rate. Market participants do not rule out a slight decrease in inflation after the record level of 8.5% y/y, recorded in March.
 

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Wheat Technical Analysis - Wheat Trading: 2022-05-16​




Wheat Technical Analysis Summary​



Buy Stop։ Above 1190​

Stop Loss: Below 1020​



Indicator Signal
RSI Neutral
MACD Neutral
MA(200) Neutral
Fractals Buy
Parabolic SAR Buy
Bollinger Bands Buy


Wheat Chart Analysis​



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Wheat Technical Analysis​

On the daily timeframe, WHEAT: D1 went up from the triangle. A number of technical analysis indicators formed signals for further growth. We do not rule out a bullish movement if WHEAT: D1 rises above its latest high: 1190. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial risk limit is possible below the Parabolic signal and the lower Bollinger line: 1020. After opening a pending order, we move the stop following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal low. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders after making a trade can switch to a four-hour chart and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (1020) without activating the order (1190), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis of Commodities - Wheat​

USDA reduced its forecast for the global wheat crop for the 2022/2023 season. Will the WHEAT quotes continue to rise?

USDA cut the forecast for the global wheat harvest in the 2022/2023 agricultural season by 4.5 million tons compared to the 2021/2022 season. Now it should be at least 774.8 million tons. World reserves will decrease more significantly - by 12.7 million tons. This will be supported by strong global demand, estimated at 787.5 million tones. The maximum decrease in the harvest is predicted in Ukraine, by more than a third or by 11.5 million tons - up to 21.5 million tons. Wheat production in Australia may decrease by 6.3 million tons and amount to 30 million tons. An additional positive for the quotes may be the risks of new anti-Russian sanctions. According to the USDA forecast, in the 2022/2023 season, Russia will retain the 1st place in world wheat exports and supply 39 million tons to other countries. This is 18.2% more than in the 2021/2022 season. It is obvious that the reduction of this volume for any reason can increase grain prices on world markets. In general, it can be noted that for the necessary balance of supply and demand, the USDA expects an increase in world wheat exports in the 2022/2023 season by 3.7 million tons compared to the previous season, contrary to the projected decrease in the global crop.
 

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Corn Technical Analysis - Corn Trading: 2022-05-23​



Corn Technical Analysis Summary​



Sell Stop։ Below 750​

Stop Loss: Above 824​



Indicator Indicator
RSI Sell
MACD Sell
MA(200) Neutral
Fractals Neutral
Parabolic SAR Sell
Bollinger Bands Neutral


Corn Chart Analysis​



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Corn Technical Analysis​

On the daily timeframe, CORN: D1 broke through the uptrend support line and exited the triangle down. A number of technical analysis indicators formed signals for further decline. We do not rule out a bearish movement if CORN: D1 drops below the last down fractal and the lower Bollinger band: 750. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial risk limit may be above the last 2 upper fractals, the 10-year high, the upper Bollinger band and the Parabolic signal: 824. After opening a pending order, we move the stop following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal high. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders after making a trade can switch to a four-hour chart and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (824) without activating the order (750), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis of Commodities - Corn​

The global corn crop may increase. Will CORN quotes continue to decline?

The International Grains Council expects a 7.3% increase in global corn production in the 2021/2022 growing season compared to the 2020/2021 season. Thus, it can reach 1214 million tons. World consumption is estimated at 1207 million tons. Among the negative factors, one can also note the Reuters report that Argentina does not exclude an increase in the limit of its corn exports in the 2021/2022 season to 35 million tons from 30 million tons. The corn crop in Argentina is estimated at 57 million tons. Russia increased the export of corn in April of this year to 325 thousand tons. This is 3 times more than in March.
 

IFC Markets

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NZD/USD Technical Analysis - NZD/USD Trading: 2022-05-24​



NZD/USD Technical Analysis Summary​

Buy Stop։ Above 0,65​

Stop Loss: Below 0,62​



Indicator Signal
RSI Buy
MACD Buy
MA(200) Neutral
Fractals Neutral
Parabolic SAR Buy
Bollinger Bands Neutral




NZD/USD Chart Analysis​



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NZD/USD Technical Analysis​

On the daily timeframe, NZDUSD: D1 came out of the downtrend up. Some indicators of technical analysis have formed signals for a further increase. We do not rule out a bullish movement if NZDUSD rises above the last high of 0.65. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial risk cap is possible below the Parabolic signal and the last down fractal: 0.62. After opening a pending order, we move the stop following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal low. Thereby, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders after making a trade can switch to a four-hour chart and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (0.62) without activating the order (0.65), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis of Forex - NZD/USD

Investors do not rule out an increase in the rate of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Will the NZDUSD quotes continue to rise?

The next meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will be held on Wednesday, May 25. Investors do not rule out that bank will immediately raise the rate by 0.5% to 2% from the current level of 1.5%. Prior to this, RBNZ raised the rate 4 times in a row. However, it is still well below inflation, which hit +6.9% y/y in Q1 2022. This is the highest since the 2nd quarter of 1990. The forecast for New Zealand consumer price growth in the 2nd quarter of 2022 is +8% y/y. However, the data will not be released soon - July 17th. However, inflationary expectations may make the RBNZ more determined to continue tightening its monetary policy. Note that on May 24 in New Zealand will be published significant statistics on retail sales for the 1st quarter of this year. A positive factor for the New Zealand dollar may be the plans of the Chinese authorities to lift the coronavirus lockdown in Shanghai from June 1st. China is New Zealand's main trading partner, accounting for almost 30% of its exports.