Technical Analysis #C-ORANGE : 2021-04-30

[IFC Markets]

Recommendation for Orange Juice:Sell​

Sell Stop : Below 111.49

Stop Loss : Above 115.92



RSI : Neutral

MACD : Sell

Donchian Channel : Sell

MA(200) : Buy

Fractals : Neutral

Parabolic SAR : Sell

Chart Analysis​

The #C-ORANGE technical analysis of the price chart in 4-hour timeframe shows #C-ORANGE: H4 failed to breach above the resistance line and is retracing lower to test the 200-period moving average MA(200), which is declining itself. We believe the bearish momentum will continue as the price breaches below the lower Donchian boundary at 111.49. A pending order to sell can be placed below that level. The stop loss can be placed above 115.92. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal high, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis​

Orange cop projections downgrade prompted price increase a couple of weeks ago. Will the ORANGE price resume advancing? Couple of weeks ago orange crop projections were downgraded both for Florida and Brazil, world’s top orange producer and exporter. Thus, US Department of Agriculture (USDA) downgraded Florida oranges 2020-2021 production to 51.7 million boxes on April 9, down 7% from March’s 55.5 million box projection. And a few days later on April 12 Brazil’s Fundecitrus and its cooperators estimated 2020-2021 Brazil orange crop 30.55% smaller than the 2019-2020 crop. Lower crop forecasts prompted an increase in orange prices. However, the price is retracing lower now and the technical setup is bearish for orange price.