Technical Analysis #C-ORANGE : 2021-03-17

[IFC Markets]

Recommendation for Orange Juice:Buy​

Buy Stop : Above 119

Stop Loss : Below 107



RSI : Neutral

MACD : Neutral

MA(200) : Buy

Fractals : Neutral

Parabolic SAR : Buy

Bollinger Bands : Neutral

Chart Analysis​

On the daily timeframe, ORANGE: D1 is moving towards the triangle resistance line. It exceeded the 200-day moving average line. A number of technical analysis indicators formed signals for further growth. We do not rule out a bullish movement if ORANGE rises above the last maximum: 119. This level can be used as an entry point. We can place a stop loss below the Parabolic signal, the low since September 2020 and the lower Bollinger line: 107. After opening the pending order, we can move the stop following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal low. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. After the transaction, the most risk-averse traders can switch to the four-hour chart and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of the bias. If the price meets the stop loss (107) without activating the order (119), it is recommended to delete the order: the market sustains internal changes that whave not been taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis​

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects orange production to decline in the current agricultural season. Will the ORANGE proces grow? According to the USDA forecast, the orange crop in the United States in the 2020/2021 agricultural season will be 4.62 million tons. This is 11% less than in the 2019/2020 season. Most of the yield will be reduced in Florida. USDA expects it to be 18% less than in the previous season and amount to 2.5 million tons. In California, the orange harvest could be cut by 2%. In Texas, it will most likely be at the level of the 2019/2020 season. Recall that according to USDA data for January 2021, US frozen orange juice stocks were 18% less than in January 2020.