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06.05.2015 07:30 GMT
Yesterday world financial markets closed mixed. European indices posted a drop – Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 0.84 percent to 6,927.58 points, Germany’s DAX slumped 2.51 percent down to 11,327.68 points, and France’s CAC 40 dropped 2.12 percent down to 4,974.07 points.
At the same time, Russia’s equity soared up, taking a cue from rising oil prices and ruble strengthening over the holidays. Thus, the MICEX index advanced 1.98 percent up to 1,721.80 points while the RTS index shot up by 4.24 percent altogether and reached 1,072.93 points.
In the USA, the Dow Jones fell 0.79 percent to 17,928.20 points, the S&P 500 shed 1.18 percent down to 2,089.46 points, and the NASDAQ dropped 1.55 percent down to 4,939.33 points.
On the NYMEX, the price of June futures for WTI oil rose by $1.47 and made $60.40 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the June future for oil of mark Brent went up by $1.07 and reached $67.52 a barrel.
Yesterday on the global currency market, the euro gained ground against the dollar. Today EUR/USD continues to go up. In case the chart pattern is completed, the pair can get to 1.14.
Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst
Russian Equity Gains Due to Oil Price Rise Over Holidays
Yesterday world financial markets closed mixed. European indices posted a drop – Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 0.84 percent to 6,927.58 points, Germany’s DAX slumped 2.51 percent down to 11,327.68 points, and France’s CAC 40 dropped 2.12 percent down to 4,974.07 points.
At the same time, Russia’s equity soared up, taking a cue from rising oil prices and ruble strengthening over the holidays. Thus, the MICEX index advanced 1.98 percent up to 1,721.80 points while the RTS index shot up by 4.24 percent altogether and reached 1,072.93 points.
In the USA, the Dow Jones fell 0.79 percent to 17,928.20 points, the S&P 500 shed 1.18 percent down to 2,089.46 points, and the NASDAQ dropped 1.55 percent down to 4,939.33 points.
On the NYMEX, the price of June futures for WTI oil rose by $1.47 and made $60.40 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the June future for oil of mark Brent went up by $1.07 and reached $67.52 a barrel.
Yesterday on the global currency market, the euro gained ground against the dollar. Today EUR/USD continues to go up. In case the chart pattern is completed, the pair can get to 1.14.
Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst
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08.05.2015 07:30 GMT
Yesterday world financial markets posted mixed results again. In Europe, the FTSE 100 fell 0.67 percent to 6,886.95 points, the DAX grew 0.51 percent to 11,407.97 points while the САС 40 shed 0.29 percent down to 4,967.22 points.
Russia’s indices went down following oil prices – the MICEX index dropped 1.59 percent to 1,686.98 points, and the RTS index fell 0.51 percent to 1,060.73 points.
In the USA, the Dow Jones added 0.46 percent making 17,924.06 points, the S&P 500 grew 0.38 percent to 2,088 points, and the NASDAQ advanced 0.53 percent up to 4,945.54 points.
Thursday evening oil prices went down. The NYMEX price of WTI oil futures for June dropped by $1.71 and reached $56.59 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the price of the Brent oil future for June was down by $2.03 and got to $65.74 a barrel.
On the global currency market, EUR/USD was slightly short of the 1.14 target and is experiencing a downward correction. Nonetheless, in case of favorable macroeconomic data, the pair may reach 1.1470.
Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst
EUR/USD Is Correcting
Yesterday world financial markets posted mixed results again. In Europe, the FTSE 100 fell 0.67 percent to 6,886.95 points, the DAX grew 0.51 percent to 11,407.97 points while the САС 40 shed 0.29 percent down to 4,967.22 points.
Russia’s indices went down following oil prices – the MICEX index dropped 1.59 percent to 1,686.98 points, and the RTS index fell 0.51 percent to 1,060.73 points.
In the USA, the Dow Jones added 0.46 percent making 17,924.06 points, the S&P 500 grew 0.38 percent to 2,088 points, and the NASDAQ advanced 0.53 percent up to 4,945.54 points.
Thursday evening oil prices went down. The NYMEX price of WTI oil futures for June dropped by $1.71 and reached $56.59 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the price of the Brent oil future for June was down by $2.03 and got to $65.74 a barrel.
On the global currency market, EUR/USD was slightly short of the 1.14 target and is experiencing a downward correction. Nonetheless, in case of favorable macroeconomic data, the pair may reach 1.1470.
Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst
GENERALIZED FOREX FORECAST FOR 11 – 15 MAY 2015
«BINGO!” AND BLACK BEARS
«BINGO!” AND BLACK BEARS
As usual, first a few words regarding last week’s forecast:
- for the EUR/USD pair the forecast was fulfilled by no less than 100%. We supposed that the EUR/USD pair would experience a sideways trend and a possible descent to the 1.0800 mark. This is what actually ended up happening, as on Tuesday the pair fell into the 1.0700÷1.0850 zone and stayed there for approximately one hour before determinedly rising in order to finish the week at exactly the same mark as the mark it started from;
- the GBP/USD pair was strictly abiding by our “guidelines” of a sideways move all week until Thursday evening, maintaining an even narrower range than we originally supposed. However, this was followed by the announcement of the British election results, which surprised not only politicians but also financiers, resulting in the pair soaring up by more than 200 points
- Regarding the USD/JPY pair, the majority of both analysts and indicators asserted that the pair would keep strengthening in the area above 120.00. On the other hand, a rather tight-numbered opposition was foretelling a rapid downwards rebound. The result was that both groups proved to be right, as at the start of the week “bulls” were propping the pair up, not letting it fall below the arranged 120.00 line. However, they then weakened and passed on their influence to the “bears”. Zoologists claim that Japanese black bears prefer steep mountainous terrain, which, judging by the way the pair impetuously descended, is hard to disagree with. However, by the end of the week, the pair once again climbed upwards, returning to the 119.70 point, which it has been fluctuating about since the end of March.
- The USD/CHF forecast maintained that the pair would continue following in the wake of EUR/USD, acting as a mirror image of its “older sister”. Therefore, , looking at last week’s charts we can now shout “Bingo!”, since the forecast proved to be 100% accurate.
***
Now on to the forecast for the upcoming week. Aggregating the opinions of 35 analysts from the world’s leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as forecasts, which were based on an extremely diverse range of technical and graphical analytical methods, we can presume that: - The EUR/USD pair will most likely continue occupying a sideways trend with fluctuations about the 1.1230 mark. At the very least, this is the conclusion we arrived at after looking at the neat split between expert opinions: ↑ - 22%, → - 3%, ↓- 19%, ↔ (raised hands) – 56%. A similar situation occurs with indicator showings: ↑ - 35%, → - 17%, ↓- 48%. The main levels of support 1.1060, 1.0850 and 1.0650, whilst the main levels of resistance are 1.1290 and 1.1440;
- For the GBP/USD pair an absolute majority of indicators (87%. ) on both H4 and D1 foretell growth. Analysts’ opinions, however, diverge (↑ - 25%, → - 9%, ↓- 22%, ↔ – 44%. ). Since the pair has already reached quite a high level of 1.5600, there exists a significant probability that the pair will attempt to barge through the resistance and settle in the 1.5475÷1.5785 zone. However, a failure to do so and an ensuing descent to the 1.5000 support level can also be predicted with a similarly high probability.
- As for the USD/JPY pair, expert opinions and indicator predictions also diverge (experts: ↑ - 7%, → - 22%, ↓- 26%, ↔ – 45%, indicators: ↑ - 60%, → - 17%, ↓- 23%. ). However, both are satisfied with a Pivot Point level of 119.70, support at the 119.20, 188.75 and 119.20 levels and resistance at 120.05, 120.30 и 120.85;
- Regarding the near future of the USD/CHF pair, however, both analysts and indicators are in harmony: more than 75% of the former and 56% of the latter agree that the pair should rise and settle in the 0.9300÷0.9400 corridor. The next support level is 0.9190 and the next resistance level is 0.9500.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Generalized Forex Forecast for 11-15 May 2015
First, let’s review last week’s forecast:
Now on to the forecast for the upcoming week. Summarizing the opinions of 35 analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on diverse technical and graphical methods of analysis, the following can be suggested:
Roman Butko, NordFX
First, let’s review last week’s forecast:
- the forecast EUR/USD was fulfilled 100%. The pair was predicted to stay in a sideways trend, with a possible descent to 1.0800. As it happened, on Tuesday the pair fell to around 1.0700-1.0850, remained there for about an hour and then went up in order to finish the week at the point it had started from;
- the GBP/USD pair was sticking to the predictions about a sideways trend all the way till Thursday evening, maintaining an even narrower range than was expected initially. However, this was followed by the announcement of the UK election results, which surprised both politicians and financiers. As a consequence, the pair soared up by over 200 points;
- most analysts and indicators asserted that the USD/JPY pair would try to consolidate in the area above 120.00. On the other hand, a rather small group foretold a rapid downwards rebound. In fact, both groups proved to be right. At the start of the week, the bulls were propping the pair up, not letting it fall below 120.00. However, they then weakened, and the bears took over. Nonetheless, by the end of the week, the pair once again climbed upwards, back to 119.70, which it has been fluctuating around since the end of March;
- the forecast for USD/CHF was that the pair would continue to mirror EUR/USD. Judging by last week’s chart, the forecast proved to be 100% accurate.
Now on to the forecast for the upcoming week. Summarizing the opinions of 35 analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on diverse technical and graphical methods of analysis, the following can be suggested:
- EUR/USD is likely to remain in its sideways trend, fluctuating along 1.1230. At the very least, the can be concluded as you look at the neat split among the experts’ opinions: ↑ - 22%, → - 3%, ↓- 19%, ↔ (at a loss) - 56%. The indicator readings are not much different: ↑ - 35%, → - 17%, ↓- 48%. The main support levels are 1.1060, 1.0850 and 1.0650, and the main resistance levels are 1.1290 and 1.1440;
- the vast majority of the indicators (87%) on H4 and D1 foretell growth for GBP/USD. The analysts differ: ↑ - 25%, → - 9%, ↓- 22%, ↔ - 44%. As the pair has almost reached a high level of 1.5600, it’s quite likely to try and break through the resistance and settle in the range of 1.5475-1.5785. At the same time, there’re good chances that the pair will fail to do so and will actually start moving down to the 1.5000 support level;
- the forecasts of the analysts and the indicators regarding USD/JPY also differ (experts: ↑ - 7%, → - 22%, ↓- 26%, ↔ - 45%; indicators: ↑ - 60%, → - 17%, ↓- 23% ). However, both groups agree on the Pivot Point being at 119.70. Support will be at 119.20, 188.75 and 119.20, with resistance at 120.05, 120.30 and 120.85;
- there’s concord among the analysts and indicators about USD/CHF – over 75% and 56% respectively suggest that the pair should rise and consolidate in the range of 0.9300-0.9400. The next support level is 0.9190, and the next resistance level is 0.9500.
Roman Butko, NordFX
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Generalized Forex Forecast for 27 April - 1 May 2015
The previous forecast held that all four currency would enter a sideways trend. It turned out to be correct – EUR/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF finished the five business days at the same level as they had started. The GBP/USD pair went up slightly returning to its symbolic range of 1.5000-1.5200 where it had stayed all of January. Thus, there was a sideways movement in this case too, although on a somewhat larger scale.
Now to the forecast for the coming week. Upon generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, it can be suggested that :
Roman Butko, NordFX
The previous forecast held that all four currency would enter a sideways trend. It turned out to be correct – EUR/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF finished the five business days at the same level as they had started. The GBP/USD pair went up slightly returning to its symbolic range of 1.5000-1.5200 where it had stayed all of January. Thus, there was a sideways movement in this case too, although on a somewhat larger scale.
Now to the forecast for the coming week. Upon generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, it can be suggested that :
- EUR/USD will continue its sideways movement in the range of 1.0500-1.1030 while, according to the indicators and the opinions of 40% of the analysts, at the start of the week the pair will strive to reach the upper boundary of the corridor, rebound off it and go downwards;
- the scenario for GBP/USD is similar. However, considering that the pair finished the previous week at the key level of 1.5185, this rate may become either the support level or the resistance level. Most probably, clarity will come in the first couple of days of this week – if the pair moves upwards, its target will be 1.5580; conversely, if GBP/USD moves downwards, it’ll aim for its previous low of 1.4600;
- on the basis of last week’s results, the indicators predict (even on large timeframes) USD/JPY to fall. Yet the analysts, on the contrary, look at the sideways trend and expect the pair to rebound from around 118.55-118.90 upwards to the range of 120.80-122.00;
- USD/CHF is very likely to copycat EUR/USD’s movements – it will push off the bottom boundary of the corridor (0.9500), go upwards trying to get over the high of the previous week and settle in the area of 0.9720-0.9860.
Roman Butko, NordFX
14.05.2015 07:40 GMT
Euro Began to Go Up
Yesterday the world’s financial markets closed mainly on the decline. In Europe, the FTSE 100 grew 0.23 percent to 6,949.63 points, the DAX dropped 1.05 percent down to 11,351.46 points, and the CAC 40 fell 0.26 percent to 4,961.86 points.
In Russia, the MICEX index shed 1.31 percent down to 1,682.26 points while the RTS index advanced 1.12 percent up to 1,082.21 points.
In the United States, the Dow Jones fell 0.04 percent to 18,060.49 points, the S&P 500 shed 0.03 percent down to 2,098.48 points whereas the NASDAQ added 0.11 percent making 4,981.69 points.
Oil prices also went down yesterday. The NYMEX price of WTI oil futures for June dropped by $0.25 and reached $60.50 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the cost of Brent oil futures for June delivery was down by $0.05 and made $66.81 a barrel.
On the Forex market, EUR/USD went up and is moving towards the afore-mentioned target of 1.1470.
Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst
Euro Began to Go Up
Yesterday the world’s financial markets closed mainly on the decline. In Europe, the FTSE 100 grew 0.23 percent to 6,949.63 points, the DAX dropped 1.05 percent down to 11,351.46 points, and the CAC 40 fell 0.26 percent to 4,961.86 points.
In Russia, the MICEX index shed 1.31 percent down to 1,682.26 points while the RTS index advanced 1.12 percent up to 1,082.21 points.
In the United States, the Dow Jones fell 0.04 percent to 18,060.49 points, the S&P 500 shed 0.03 percent down to 2,098.48 points whereas the NASDAQ added 0.11 percent making 4,981.69 points.
Oil prices also went down yesterday. The NYMEX price of WTI oil futures for June dropped by $0.25 and reached $60.50 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the cost of Brent oil futures for June delivery was down by $0.05 and made $66.81 a barrel.
On the Forex market, EUR/USD went up and is moving towards the afore-mentioned target of 1.1470.
Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst
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Generalized Forex Forecast for 18-22 May 2015
Let us start with a few words about the forecast for last week, which turned out to be quite accurate overall:
- the prediction for EUR/USD was that most probably the pair would stay in a sideways trend with fluctuations around the line of 1.1230, which did happen in fact. At first, EUR/USD went downwards, then returned to its Pivot Point, after which the bulls gained strength and began to persistently push the pair towards the upper boundary of the corridor. The level of 1.1440 was set as the final bastion of resistance, and the pair tried to break through it all Friday long. However, it failed and finished the five days in this very zone;
- one of the possibilities for GBP/USD was breaking through the resistance level of 1.5600, which was also supported by 87% of the indicators. The breakthrough happened already on Tuesday, and then the pair tried several times to rise above the upper boundary of the corridor – 1.5785. It didn’t succeed, though, and so settled down finishing at 1.5727;
- the Pivot Point for USD/JPY was set at 119.70, which was confirmed – the pair crossed it twice during the week, having stayed exactly in the average values of the specified corridor 118.75-120.30;
- USD/CHF turned out to be the only pair regarding which both analysts and indicators were only partly right. At first, everything seemed to go as planned – the pair began to grow and tried to consolidate above 0.9300. However, on Tuesday, in a powerful spurt, the pair broke through the support line and went down sharply to the low of a week ago.
***
Now regarding the forecast for the coming week. Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can note the surprising unanimity of the analysts who predict growth for all four pairs. Such forecasts always raise strong suspicions because some of the pairs are generally characterized by multi-directional rather than direct correlation:
- for EUR/USD the opinions of the experts are as follows: ↑ – 40%, → – 3%, ↓ – 6%, ↔ (at a loss) – 51%. The indicators provide similar readings: ↑ – 83%, → – 17%, ↓ – 0%. However, graphical analysis shows that the pair has almost completed the Inverted Hat pattern and has to form just the second brim of the hat. Thus, it can be assumed that this week EUR/USD will hold in a sideways corridor of 1.1070-1.1530, and, after a small rise, the pair is expected to have a relatively strong rebound downwards;
- the D1 chart clearly shows that GBP/USD has reached the upper boundary of the corridor (1.5800) where it stayed for a month and a half at the end of last year. The pair is very likely to linger in the range of 1.5500-1.5815 for some time again. Therefore, despite the vast majority of the analysts and 91% of the indicators pointing to growth, one can expect prevailing bearish tendencies and the pair’s rebound downwards;
- the opinions of the experts and the readings of the indicators for USD/JPY diverge (the experts: ↑ – 42%, → – 3%, ↓ – 3%, ↔ – 52%; the indicators: ↑ – 26%, → – 4%, ↓ – 70%). Hence, the level of 119.40, at which the pair finished the previous five days, can be considered as a Pivot Point, and the readings of the indicators on the H1 timeframe and smaller can give further guidance. Support will at 119.20, 118.90, 118.75 and 118.50; resistance – 119.60, 119.90, 120.00 and 120.30;
- as for the near future of USD/CHF, the data for both analysts and indicators are similar to USD/JPY (the experts: ↑ – 40%, → – 6%, ↓ – 4%, ↔ – 50%; the indicators: ↑ – 17%, → – 9%, ↓ – 74%). At the same time, as USD/CHF is in an inverse correlation with EUR/USD, it may go up at least to around 0.9290-0.9380. In the case this forecast is not fulfilled, the support levels will be 0.9110, 0.9075 and 0.8980, resistance – 0.9500.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Generalized Forex Forecast for 18-22 May 2015
Let us start with a few words about the forecast for last week, which turned out to be quite accurate overall:
Now regarding the forecast for the coming week. Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can note the surprising unanimity of the analysts who predict growth for all four pairs. Such forecasts always raise strong suspicions because some of the pairs are generally characterized by multi-directional rather than direct correlation:
Roman Butko, NordFX
Let us start with a few words about the forecast for last week, which turned out to be quite accurate overall:
- the prediction for EUR/USD was that most probably the pair would stay in a sideways trend with fluctuations around the line of 1.1230, which did happen in fact. At first, EUR/USD went downwards, then returned to its Pivot Point, after which the bulls gained strength and began to persistently push the pair towards the upper boundary of the corridor. The level of 1.1440 was set as the final bastion of resistance, and the pair tried to break through it all Friday long. However, it failed and finished the five days in this very zone;
- one of the possibilities for GBP/USD was breaking through the resistance level of 1.5600, which was also supported by 87% of the indicators. The breakthrough happened already on Tuesday, and then the pair tried several times to rise above the upper boundary of the corridor – 1.5785. It didn’t succeed, though, and so settled down finishing at 1.5727;
- the Pivot Point for USD/JPY was set at 119.70, which was confirmed – the pair crossed it twice during the week, having stayed exactly in the average values of the specified corridor 118.75-120.30;
- USD/CHF turned out to be the only pair regarding which both analysts and indicators were only partly right. At first, everything seemed to go as planned – the pair began to grow and tried to consolidate above 0.9300. However, on Tuesday, in a powerful spurt, the pair broke through the support line and went down sharply to the low of a week ago.
Now regarding the forecast for the coming week. Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can note the surprising unanimity of the analysts who predict growth for all four pairs. Such forecasts always raise strong suspicions because some of the pairs are generally characterized by multi-directional rather than direct correlation:
- for EUR/USD the opinions of the experts are as follows: ↑ – 40%, → – 3%, ↓ – 6%, ↔ (at a loss) – 51%. The indicators provide similar readings: ↑ – 83%, → – 17%, ↓ – 0%. However, graphical analysis shows that the pair has almost completed the Inverted Hat pattern and has to form just the second brim of the hat. Thus, it can be assumed that this week EUR/USD will hold in a sideways corridor of 1.1070-1.1530, and, after a small rise, the pair is expected to have a relatively strong rebound downwards;
- the D1 chart clearly shows that GBP/USD has reached the upper boundary of the corridor (1.5800) where it stayed for a month and a half at the end of last year. The pair is very likely to linger in the range of 1.5500-1.5815 for some time again. Therefore, despite the vast majority of the analysts and 91% of the indicators pointing to growth, one can expect prevailing bearish tendencies and the pair’s rebound downwards;
- the opinions of the experts and the readings of the indicators for USD/JPY diverge (the experts: ↑ – 42%, → – 3%, ↓ – 3%, ↔ – 52%; the indicators: ↑ – 26%, → – 4%, ↓ – 70%). Hence, the level of 119.40, at which the pair finished the previous five days, can be considered as a Pivot Point, and the readings of the indicators on the H1 timeframe and smaller can give further guidance. Support will at 119.20, 118.90, 118.75 and 118.50; resistance – 119.60, 119.90, 120.00 and 120.30;
- as for the near future of USD/CHF, the data for both analysts and indicators are similar to USD/JPY (the experts: ↑ – 40%, → – 6%, ↓ – 4%, ↔ – 50%; the indicators: ↑ – 17%, → – 9%, ↓ – 74%). At the same time, as USD/CHF is in an inverse correlation with EUR/USD, it may go up at least to around 0.9290-0.9380. In the case this forecast is not fulfilled, the support levels will be 0.9110, 0.9075 and 0.8980, resistance – 0.9500.
Roman Butko, NordFX
