Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade ideas for December 1

Open positions:

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0720, TAKE PROFIT 1.0458, STOP LOSS 1.0691 (revised)

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 123.00, TAKE PROFIT 124.63, STOP LOSS 122.19

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.5170, TAKE PROFIT 1.4960, STOP LOSS 1.5140 (revised)

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9820, TAKE PROFIT 1.0466, STOP LOSS 1.0195

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7125, TAKE PROFIT 0.7382, STOP LOSS 0.7149

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3150, TAKE PROFIT 1.3557, STOP LOSS 1.3270 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 133.35, TAKE PROFIT 129.62, STOP LOSS 131.11 (revised)

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0830, TAKE PROFIT 1.1050, STOP LOSS 1.0805 (revised)

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.4285, TAKE PROFIT 1.3993, STOP LOSS 1.4215 (revised)

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 185.15, TAKE PROFIT 188.81, STOP LOSS 184.15

Trade ideas:

EUR/GBP: REVISE SELL AT 0.7040, TAKE PROFIT 0.6936, STOP LOSS 0.7085 (revised)

NZD/USD: Possibly BUY

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7237

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/NZD: sell target - 1.5720
1 December 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• EUR/NZD broke sideways price range
• Next sell target - 1.5720

EUR/NZD continues to fall strongly – following the earlier breakout of the support level 1.6200, which is the lower boundary of the narrow sideways price range inside which the pair has been trading from the end of October (the upper boundary of this price range stands at the resistance level 1.6500). The breakout of the support level 1.6200 accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3), which belongs to the primary impulse wave ③ , which started from the resistance level 1.6500 in November.

EUR/NZD is likely to fall further inside the active impulse waves (3) and ③ toward the next sell target at the support level 1.5720.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7238

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for December 2

By Kira Iukhtenko

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US Dollar gains remain capped at the beginning of the week: USD index holds below the 100 point resistance. November Manufacturing PMI, released on Tuesday, was a disappointment for traders: it came below the forecast at 48.6. On Wednesday, the Fed’s chief Yellen will deliver a speech in Washington. You should also watch the ADP NFP on Wednesday. However, the most important is yet to come: Yellen’s speech in Congress on Thursday and the US labor market data on Friday will really matter for the US Dollar. If ADP on Wednesday doesn’t disappoint badly, USD could resume the upside tomorrow.

EUR/USD recovered to 1.0615 on Tuesday (local resistance). Watch the euro zone’s inflation data on Wednesday (forecasts – slight improvement). However, they are not expected to change the global picture: the ECB president Mario Draghi is widely expected to announce additional easing measures on Thursday’s meeting. We expect EUR/USD to hit 1.0500 ahead of the meeting and to break lower in case if the easing is announced. If there is no easing on Thursday, EUR/USD could jump higher towards the 1.0800 area. However, don’t forget about “the Fed’s factor” – US dollar still remains the beloved currency of the crowd.

Commodity block currencies strengthened gradually (AUD and NZD), but in the current conditions the rally could end quickly. Watch the Australian GDP tomorrow: the forecast is upbeat, so the pair could jump towards the 0.7380 resistance before reversing ahead of the Fed's news at the end of the week. Your should also watch the Bank of Canada meeting on Wednesday – rate is expected to stay on hold, but the USD/CAD pair still has potential for more upside.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7244

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Euro might update lows
2 December 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

EUR/USD corrected to the four-hour Ichimoku cloud lower border yesterday. As expected, the growth was induced by the pair's oversoldness. Let us note that the bulls have only managed to test the Senkou Span A levels. This morning, we are already observing the negative dynamics in the market. The prices' dive below the Tenkan and Kijun lines support is obvious to attract more sellers to the market. In this case, we might as well witness new lows.

Technical levels: support – 1.0600, 1.0560; resistance – 1.0640.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.0610/20; SL — 1.0640; TP1 — 1.0560; TP2 — 1.0500.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7245

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Pound holding above lines
2 December 2015
Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The bulls managed to restore the GBP/USD currency pair rate into the 1.5120 area yesterday. The growth was of correctional nature, as we have mentioned earlier, since Chinkou Span was indicating the pair's oversoldness. However, the bears have once again started pressuring by the end of the day, returning trades to the 1.5060 mark. It is here that the Tenkan and Kijun lines are, so far holding the bears' further progress back. But the break through this level can be critical – there is a possibility of the rate's decline to this week's earlier lows, to the 50th figure.

Technical levels: support – 1.5000, 1.5060; resistande – 1.5080.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.5050; SL — 1.5070; TP1 — 1.5000; TP2 — 1.4970.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7246

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for December 2

Open positions:

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0720, TAKE PROFIT 1.0458, STOP LOSS 1.0691

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 123.00, TAKE PROFIT 124.63, STOP LOSS 122.19

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.5170, TAKE PROFIT 1.4960, STOP LOSS 1.5140 (revised)

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9820, TAKE PROFIT 1.0466, STOP LOSS 1.0195 (revised)

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7125, TAKE PROFIT 0.7382, STOP LOSS 0.7240 (revised)

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3150, TAKE PROFIT 1.3557, STOP LOSS 1.3270 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 133.35, TAKE PROFIT 129.62, STOP LOSS 131.11

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7040, TAKE PROFIT 0.6936, STOP LOSS 0.7085

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0830, TAKE PROFIT 1.1050, STOP LOSS 1.0805

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 185.15, TAKE PROFIT 188.81, STOP LOSS 184.15

Trade ideas:

EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL

NZD/USD: BUY at 0.6610, TAKE PROFIT 0.6719, STOP LOSS 0.6577

________________________________________________________________

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for December 3

By Elizabeth Belugina

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US dollar index recovered the losses it suffered on Tuesday gaining especially versus the euro, British pound and Japanese yen. According to the data from ADP, the US economy added 217K jobs in November (vs. the forecast of 191K). Unit labor costs rose by 1.8% vs. 1.1% expected – another positive development. The Federal Reserve’s Chair Janet Yellen will likely confirm that December 16 FOMC meeting will be ‘live’ meaning that the Fed’s policy may be changed. Yellen will speak later on Wednesday and then testify at 15:00 GMT on Thursday. Note that America will release ISM non-manufacturing PMI as well at 15:00 GMT on Thursday, though the release probably won’t be the big market mover ahead of the nonfarm payrolls on Friday.

EUR/USD returned to the 1.0600 area and below on Wednesday. Traders await the results of the ECB meeting. The central bank will announce its interest rate decision at 12:45 GMT (the cut in deposit rate is likely), and at 13:30 GMT Mario Draghi will host a press conference. At the ECB’s last meeting in October Draghi said that the regulator would reconsider its policy in December hinting at the possibility of additional monetary easing in the form of QE monthly increase and overall extension. Draghi also noted that the option of reducing deposit rates had been discussed. Euro zone’s November inflation figures released on Wednesday came out lower than expected thus confirming the case for the ECB to ease its policy. Still, much of the easing has been already priced in EUR/USD’s rate since October as the pair descended from 1.13 on October 22 to the current range around 1.06. We are quite certain that the ECB will act on Thursday, the question is whether the central bank will do just enough to keep the euro from rising or do more than expected by the market and drive the single currency to 1.0500 and lower? With all the speculation about potential steps of the ECB, it’s difficult to say what is currently priced in. At this point, the market has, as far as we can judge, priced in 15-point deposit rate cut, an extension of QE and partly priced in the increase in monthly purchases. Remember that Mario Draghi is known for delivering more than the market thinks. The CFTC hasn’t released new data on the large players’ positioning, but we can assume that although the number of the euro shorts has increased, there’s room for more. As a result, the risks for the euro are definitely to the downside. Support is at 1.0520/00 and 1.0460. Beware of spikes in the 12:40-14:00 GMT period.

GBP/USD slid below 1.5000. British construction PMI disappointed and there’s only the UK services PMI due at 09:30 GMT on Thursday. The pair is testing support at 1.4950 and may try to hold above this area, though the risks of a slide to 1.4888 and much further have significantly increased. Resistance is at 1.5030, 1.5100 and 1.5150.USD/JPY wants to test 123.60. An increase to 124.00 will make USD sellers return. Support is at 123.00. AUD/USD paused at 0.7340, near the top of the short-term uptrend. Australia will release trade balance early on Thursday. Lower data will make Aussie slide to support at 0.7280/50. Next resistance is at 0.7380.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7255

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
NZD/CAD: buy target - 0.9000
4 December 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• NZD/CAD rising inside intermediate ABC correction (2)
• Next buy target - 0.9000

NZD/CAD has been rising steadily in the last few trading sessions inside the C-wave of the active intermediate ABC correction (2) from the middle of November (which started when the price reversed up from the support level 0.8600). The active C-wave recently broke the resistance level 0.8800 – which intensified the bullish pressure on this currency pair.

NZD/CAD is expected to rise further in the active C-wave toward the next buy target at the round resistance level 0.9000 (target price calculated for the completion of the active ABC correction (2) and the top of the previous primary ABC wave ② from September). Strong support remains at 0.8800.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7271

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/USD: forecast for December 7-13

By Elizabeth Belugina

The meeting of the European Central Bank clearly disappointed the market. After Mario Draghi’s comments in October and November the market was clearly pricing in a big expansion of monetary easing and was positioned bearishly on the single currency. The ECB, however, delivered too little. There was a squeeze in EUR shorts and the currency soared.

In short, the ECB cut deposit rate only by the minimal number expected of 10 bps, didn’t increase the monthly amount of bond purchases and extended QE by only 6 months. There clearly are disagreements within the ECB’s Governing Council. Draghi failed to persuade Bundesbank Jens Weidmann and some other policymakers to adopt more aggressive monetary easing. It’s also interesting that Draghi didn’t reply on the question whether the ECB will make further cuts to the deposit rates. This is positive for the euro in the near term.

Still, euro’s reaction to the upside was very violent and exceptional. Formally, the divergence in policy between the euro area and the United States is still present. Good US employment data solidified the prospects of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike on December 16. However, the market is now more and more leaning to the expectations that the Fed’s rate increases will be small and gradual.

Next week there will much less intense in terms of news from the euro area. There won’t be important economic data to either confirm or deny the fact that the state of the euro zone’s economy is getting better. The most important thing to watch will be what Weidmann says on Thursday. European finance ministers will meet on Monday and Tuesday. Traders and will keep trying to guess what the Fed will do on December 16 and, even more importantly, how the US central bank will act after that. The most important releases in the US will take place on Friday (retail sales, PPI).

EUR/USD faces resistance in the 1.1000/1.1050 area (daily MAs). A break higher will open the way to 1.1300.

Our main scenario is that next week the bears will try to at least partly erase the gains made on the ECB meeting. The ECB president Mario Draghi will speak late on Friday, December 4, and may once again move the market.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7276

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/JPY: forecast for December 7-13

By Elizabeth Belugina

USD/JPY spent most of the week consolidating in the 123.60/122.20 area.

Next week the most important day in Japan’s economic calendar will be Tuesday: the nation will release current account and final Q3 GDP figures. There will also be a speech of the Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda, though the central bank is unlikely to deviate from its current approach of keeping the amount of monetary stimulus unchanged.

The main driver of USD/JPY will continue to be the US dollar and the news from America. Here the main releases will be on Friday (retail sales, PPI). US employment left the door open for the Federal Reserve’s rate hike on December 16. The Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen warned against waiting to raise rates. At the same time, we expect that the US central bank will try to make rate increases as gentle as possible, so the main scenario is that the US dollar won’t have enough strength to continue its ascent against Japanese currency. In the 124.00 area and higher we will likely see Japanese companies selling US dollars. The pair has support at 121.50. A decline below this level will open the way down to 120.00. Still, for the longer term the uptrend support above 119.00 should remain in place taking into account the divergence in policy of the US and Japanese central banks.

Another thing, which will have an impact on USD/JPY fluctuations, in the coming week is the market’s risk sentiment. Watch Chinese trade data on Tuesday and inflation figures on Wednesday. Weaker readings will affect the pair, while better readings will be positive.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7277

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/USD: weekly wave analysis

Daily. Last week the pair has completely finished descending wave [c] of X, which is an impulse of good shape. At the moment the pair is forming new upward part of the long corrective wave (4). We see the bullish zigzag Z.

H4. This week we expect the price to go a bit higher in the impulse [a], after which the pair will start small downward correction . The approximate scheme of the future move is shown at the chart.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7299

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for December 8

By Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar is gradually recovering after the last week’s selloff on the ECB decision. However, the USD index still holds far below the recent highs. In our view, the greenback will remain well-supported ahead of the Fed’s December 16 meeting, so all the major pair will play the recent moves back. This week the US economic calendar is pretty light except for the retail sales on Friday. However, a deeper drop of commodities could push the US currency to the upside.

EUR/USD slipped to 1.0800 on Monday. Let's see whether the market will manage to fix below the 1.0830 mark. Euro still has huge potential to decline, while the current levels are a good moment to open short positions.

GBP/USD is also moving to the downside. The pair declined to 1.5050. Watch UK manufacturing data on Tuesday. Negative forecasts open the way for a decline to 1.5000 and below. We stay bearish below 1.5200.

USD/JPY remains capped in the sideways channel and seems to be “afraid” to break above the trend line, connecting the recent highs. There is potential for more upside, but the trade is rather risky at these levels. Wait for clearer signals.

Commodity currency are retracing from the overbought levels. AUD/USD slipped to the support of the current bullish range at 0.7250. Break lower will open the way for more downside.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7300

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for December 9

EUR/USD is trading in the 1.0880/00 area. German industrial production rose less than expected, and the euro area’s Sentix investor confidence index missed expectations as well. Still, there are no market moving news from either the euro area or the United States that will give traders new food for thoughts for traders. The same will be on Wednesday. Resistance is at 1.0900, 1.0985 (55-day MA) and 1.1030/50. Support is at 1.0795 (Monday low) and 1.0760 (November 19 high).

GBP/USD slid below 1.5000. British manufacturing production contracted by 0.4% in October. Support is at 1.4950, 1.4888 and 1.4850. Resistance is at 1.5030, 1.5100 and 1.5150.

USD/JPY fell to 123.00. Japanese Q3 GDP was revised to the upside. This together with the market’s risk aversion gave the yen the reason to strengthen. Levels of 120.50/20 are now in focus. Resistance is at 123.60.

AUD/USD dipped to 0.7200 breaking the short-term uptrend to the downside. Chinese trade data came out weak. China will release inflation figures on Wednesday morning. AUD/USD erased 50% of the advance from November lows. Next support is at 0.7155. Aussie’s divergence with the fallen iron ore is starting to influence the pair. Resistance is at 0.7250 and 0.7280.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will meet late on Wednesday (20:00 GMT). Manufacturing activity data released on Monday surprised to the upside, but the market is expecting the RBNZ to cut the benchmark rate by 25 bps. Among the arguments for such scenario are low commodity prices, mixed state of New Zealand’s economy and the sense that the upcoming increase in the Federal Reserve’s rate is already priced in USD rate. Support is at 0.6575 and 0.6515/00. If the RBNZ follows Australian and Canadian central banks and leaves rate unchanged, NZD/USD can jump to 0.6680 and 0.6750. It will be also important what the RBNZ signals about the further changes in the interest rate.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7311

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for December 9

Open positions:
EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1008, TAKE PROFIT 1.0646, STOP LOSS 1.1130

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 123.00, TAKE PROFIT 124.63, STOP LOSS 122.19

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9980, TAKE PROFIT 1.0266, STOP LOSS 0.9869

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7225, TAKE PROFIT 0.7450, STOP LOSS 0.7150

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3150, TAKE PROFIT 1.3633 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.3429 (revised)

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.6640, TAKE PROFIT 0.6792, STOP LOSS 0.6590

EUR/GBP: Hold LONG at 0.7180, TAKE PROFIT 0.7377, STOP LOSS 0.7145

Trade ideas:
GBP/USD: SELL at 1.5040, TAKE PROFIT 1.4895, STOP LOSS 1.5125

EUR/JPY: BUY at 132.75, TAKE PROFIT 136.39, STOP LOSS 130.95

EUR/CHF: Possibly BUY

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

GBP/JPY: Possibly SELL

________________________________________________________________

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/CAD: buy target - 2.0600
9 December 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• GBP/CAD broke strong resistance level 2.0290
• Next buy target - 2.0600

GBP/CAD continues to rise after the recent breakout of the strong resistance level 2.0290 (which reversed earlier waves (1) and B and which is the upper boundary of the sideways price range inside which the pair has been moving from the middle of October, as you can see below). The price earlier reversed up from the round support level 2.0000 (lower boundary of the aforementioned price range) – starting the active impulse wave (3) – which recently broke the daily Triangle from September.

GBP/CAD is likely to rise further in the active impulse waves (3) and ③ toward the next buy target at the resistance level 2.0600.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7320

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/AUD: buy targets - 1.5200 and 1.5400
9 December 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• EUR/AUD broke resistance level 1.5000
• Next buy targets - 1.5200 and 1.5400

EUR/AUD has been rising steadily in the last few trading sessions – inside the intermediate (C)-wave - which started recently – when the pair reversed up with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer from the support zone lying between the support level 1.4400 and the support trendline of the recent daily down channel from September. The pair then broke the aforementioned down channel and the round resistance level 1.5000.

EUR/AUD is likely to rise further toward the next buy targets at the next resistance levels 1.5200 and 1.5400. Buy stop-loss can be placed at half the daily ATR (Average True Range) below the recently broken price level 1.5000.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7319

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for December 10

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Oil prices returned above $40 per barrel after declining to $39.80 on Tuesday, but remained under pressure. US dollar index fell approaching December 3 lows (97.60) as American currency was hit versus the euro and Japanese yen.

EUR/USD rose to 1.0980. Germany’s trade surplus rose exceeding expectations. A break higher will bring the single currency to resistance at 1.1050 and 1.1100. Support is at 1.0850, 1.0800 and 1.0760.

GBP/USD went up above 1.5100. The Bank of England will announce its policy decision at 12:00 GMT. No changes are expected. Above 1.5110 there is potential for increase to 1.5160 and 1.5190. Support is at 1.5030/00.

USD/JPY fell below the bottom of its monthly range. Japanese yen was in demand on the back of the market’s risk aversion and news that Japanese core machinery order jumped by 10.7%, while a decline of 1.5% was expected. Daily close below 122.20 will be a negative sign, though there will be still support at 121.50. Failure here will open the way down to 120.85 and probably lower (119.50). Resistance is at 122.35 and 123.00.

AUD/USD tested 0.7172 on the downside, but then returned to the 0.7200 area. Australia will release labor market data at 00:30 GMT on Thursday, the forecast is negative. Resistance is at 0.7250 and 0.7280 and we prepare to sell Aussie at these levels. Support is at 0.7200 and 0.7155.

NZD/USD is holding above the 0.6600 support. Most economists expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut rate late on Wednesday. The meeting will be followed by 2 speeches of the RBNZ Governor Wheeler (20:05 GMT on Wednesday and 00:10 GMT on Thursday). What Wheeler says is going to be very important for the pair. Support is at 0.6500 (trend line), while resistance lies at 0.6687 and 0.6787.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7322

 

[riki143]

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[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/CAD: buy targets - 2.0800 and 2.1000
11 December 2015, 09:49Comments: 0
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• GBP/CAD reached buy target 2.0600
• Next buy targets - 2.0800 and 2.1000

GBP/CAD recently rose sharply – breaking through the resistance level 2.0600, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the resistance level 2.0600 is likely to accelerate the active intermediate impulse wave (3) – which recently broke the resistance level 2.0290 and the daily Triangle from September.

GBP/CAD is likely to rise further in the active impulse waves (3) and ③ toward the next buy target at the resistance level 2.0800 – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 2.1000 (measured price forecast for the breakout of the aforementioned Triangle).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7338

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/CAD: buy target - 1.5200
11 December 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• EUR/CAD reached buy targets 1.4800 and 1.4900
• Next buy target - 1.5200

EUR/CAD has been rising sharply in the last few trading sessions – breaking through the two consecutive resistance levels 1.4800 and 1.4900 – both of which were set as the buy targets in our earlier forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of these resistance levels further accelerated the active intermediate (C)-wave from the start of December – which is indicated by the rising daily Momentum indicator.

The pair is currently approaching the round resistance level 1.5000. If the price breaks above this price level - EUR/CAD can then rise toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.5200 (which stopped the B-wave of the previous ABC correction (B) from August).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7339