Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/GBP: buy target - 0.7100
16 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• EUR/GBP reached sell target 0.7040
• Next buy target - 0.7100

EUR/GBP today reversed up sharply - after the price reached the pivotal support level 0.7040, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. This support level also previously reversed the price sharply at the start of this month and in the middle of August – as you can see from the daily EUR/GBP chart below.

Given the strength of the support level 0.7040 and the fact that the daily Stochastic indicator has not yet fully recovered from the oversold territory - EUR/GBP can be expected to correct up further to the next buy target at the next resistance level 0.7100. EUR/GBP is likely to reverse down after reaching 0.7100.

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7085

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for November 17

Elizabeth Belugina

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Stock markets moved down on the increased geopolitical risk and the market’s risk aversion. The focus this week will be on the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s more hawkish meeting on Wednesday. On Tuesday the US will release important inflation data at 13:30 GMT. At the same time, the expectations of the Fed’s rate hike in December will probably remain in any case providing support for the US dollar.

EUR/USD once again tested levels below 1.0700, but then managed to get higher. The single currency got under negative pressure after attacks in Paris, although the bearish impact is limited as the euro has been so far perceived as a safe haven. The euro area’s October inflation figures were revised a bit to the upside on Monday. Plus the European Central Bank’s president Mario Draghi declined to comment on monetary policy in this latest speech. As a result, the pull of the bears has weakened. A daily close below 1.0700 is needed to confirm that the euro’s fall has resumed. Next support is at 1.0660 and 1.0600. Resistance is at 1.0795/1.0800. Watch German and euro area’s ZEW economic sentiment at 10:00 GMT on Tuesday.

GBP/USD faces strong resistance at 1.5260 (50% Fibo of November decline). The next resistance is at 1.5315. Support is at 1.5140 and 1.5100 ahead of 1.5000. Britain will release inflation data at 09:30 GMT. Forecast is weak (-0.1%), and a reading even worse will send the cable lower.

USD/JPY tested levels in the 122.20 area, but then returned to 123.00. In line with expectations, Japanese economy kept contracting in Q3: GDP fell by 0.3%. It means that Japan in in recession. Yet, the market’s reaction was muted, but the short-term trend line was breached to the upside. Further resistance is at 123.10, 123.60, 124.00 and 124.30. Support is at 122.00, 121.80 and 121.50.

AUD/USD is affected by the deteriorated risk sentiment. Below 0.7100 the pair is vulnerable for a decline to 0.7050. Resistance is at 0.7140 and 0.7200. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release monetary policy meeting minutes on Tuesday.

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7087

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for November 17

Open positions:
EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0720, TAKE PROFIT 1.0458, STOP LOSS 1.0835

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.5256, TAKE PROFIT 1.4960, STOP LOSS 1.5330

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9820, TAKE PROFIT 1.0240, STOP LOSS 0.9833

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7125, TAKE PROFIT 0.7297, STOP LOSS 0.7055

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3150, TAKE PROFIT 1.3457, STOP LOSS 1.3220 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 133.35, TAKE PROFIT 129.62, STOP LOSS 132.83

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.6936, STOP LOSS 0.7115 (revised)

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0825, TAKE PROFIT 1.0690, STOP LOSS 1.0845

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.4285, TAKE PROFIT 1.3993, STOP LOSS 1.4390

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 186.45, TAKE PROFIT 190.00, STOP LOSS 185.35

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.6525 , TAKE PROFIT 0.6745, STOP LOSS 0.6451

Trade signals:

USD/JPY: BUY at 122.95, TAKE PROFIT 124.63, STOP LOSS 122.20

________________________________________________________________

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/USD: sell target - 1.0600
17 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• EUR/USD reached sell target 1.0700
• Next sell target - 1.0600

EUR/USD continues to fall after the recent breakout of the support level 1.0700, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The price earlier reversed down sharply from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.0800 (the lower boundary of the resistance zone located between price levels 1.0800 and 1.0880). The downward reversal from this resistance zone started the active impulse wave (v) of the 3rd minor impulse wave 3 from October.

EUR/USD is likely to fall further toward the next sell target at the next pivotal support level 1.0600 (which reversed the previous sharp wave (ii) in April).

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7094

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/NZD: buy target - 2.3800
17 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• GBP/NZD broke resistance level 2.3350
• Next buy target - 2.3800

GBP/NZD continues to rise after the pair recently broke the resistance level 2.3350 (which reversed the previous intermediate impulse wave (1) at the start of this month, as you can see below). The breakout of the resistance level 2.3350 is likely to accelerate the active intermediate impulse wave (3) – which belongs to the primary impulse wave ⑤ which started in October (when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 2.2500, the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous upward impulse ③ from April).

GBP/NZD is likely to rise in the active impulse wave (3) toward the next buy target at the next resistance level 2.3800 (former support level from September).

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7095

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for November 18

By Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar remained well-supported on Tuesday: USD Index hovers slightly below the historical highs at 99.60 as we write. Demand for the greenback is propelled by the Fed's rate hike expectations and the increased social and polictical uncertainty. US October CPI came out in line with forecasts on Tuesday (+0.2% m/m), leaving the door open for a December rate hike. On Wednesday traders will focus on the FOMC meeting minutes release. The document is expected to push the expectations even higher, so be ready for more USD gains tomorrow.

EUR/USD slipped to fresh muti-year lows of 1.0640. The pair remains in a clearly-cut bearish channel. The 1.0500 mark is expected to be hit in the coming sessions. Resistance is seen at 1.0800/30. Euro zone’s economic calendar for Wednesday is empty, while on Thursday pay attention to the ECB meeting minutes.

GBP/USD hovers below the 1.5200 mark. Our bearish scenario is now in action: break below 1.5130 will open the way to 1.5000 in the near term. UK economy remains in deflation, so chances for the BOE rate hike remain subdued these days. Watch the UK retail sales on Thursday: the reading is expected to have fallen by 0.4% on October. Data could trigger a severe GBP selloff at the end of the week.

Commodity markets are trading in the red and this is a strong medium-term bearish factor for the commodity block currencies as well. AUD/USD gained some ground on Tuesday due to the neutral RBA minutes, but we stay pessimistic about the currency’s prospects. Sell on rallies to 0.7160 and target 0.6900 in the mid-term.

Get ready to buy USD/JPY on a break above 123.60. Support is seen at 122.90. Don’t miss the BOJ meeting on Thursday.

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7101

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for November 18

Open positions:
EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0720, TAKE PROFIT 1.0458, STOP LOSS 1.0835

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.5256, TAKE PROFIT 1.4960, STOP LOSS 1.5330

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9820, TAKE PROFIT 1.0310, STOP LOSS 1.0039

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7125, TAKE PROFIT 0.7297, STOP LOSS 0.7055

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3150, TAKE PROFIT 1.3457, STOP LOSS 1.3220 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 133.35, TAKE PROFIT 129.62, STOP LOSS 132.83

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.6936, STOP LOSS 0.7045 (revised)

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0825, TAKE PROFIT 1.0690, STOP LOSS 1.0845

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.4285, TAKE PROFIT 1.3993, STOP LOSS 1.4390

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 186.45, TAKE PROFIT 190.00, STOP LOSS 185.35

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.6525, TAKE PROFIT 0.6745, STOP LOSS 0.6451

Trade signals:

USD/JPY: BUY at 122.95, TAKE PROFIT 124.63, STOP LOSS 122.20

________________________________________________________________

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
CAD/CHF: buy target - 0.7700
18 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• CAD/CHF broke pivotal resistance level 0.7560
• Next buy target - 0.7700

CAD/CHF continues to rise– following the earlier sharp breakout of the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the pivotal resistance level 0.7560 (which has been reversing this currency pair from the start of August) and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous intermediate (C)-wave from the end of April. The breakout of the resistance level 0.7560 is likely to accelerate the active minor impulse wave 3 – which belongs to the sharp (C)-wave of the primary ABC correction Ⓑ from the end of August.

CAD/CHF is likely to rise further to the next buy target at the next resistance level 0.7700. Buy stop-loss can be placed at half the daily ATR (Average True Range) below the support level 0.7560.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7108

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/CHF: buy target - 1.0200
18 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• USD/CHF reached buy target 1.0100
• Next buy target - 1.0200

USD/CHF continues to rise after the recent breakout of the resistance zone lying between the resistance levels 1.0000 and 1.0100 (which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). This resistance zone was strengthened by the upper resistance trendline of the wide daily up channel from the start of May (as you can see below). The breakout of this resistance area accelerated the 5th impulse wave (v) of the C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (B) from May.

USD/CHF is likely to rise further toward the next buy target at the next resistance level 1.0200. Buy stop-loss can be placed below the support level 1.0100.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7107

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for November 19

Open positions:

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0720, TAKE PROFIT 1.0458, STOP LOSS 1.0835

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 123.35, TAKE PROFIT 124.63, STOP LOSS 122.79

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.5256, TAKE PROFIT 1.4960, STOP LOSS 1.5330

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9820, TAKE PROFIT 1.0310, STOP LOSS 1.0039

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7125, TAKE PROFIT 0.7297, STOP LOSS 0.7055

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3150, TAKE PROFIT 1.3457, STOP LOSS 1.3220

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 133.35, TAKE PROFIT 129.62, STOP LOSS 132.83

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.6936, STOP LOSS 0.7045 (revised)

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.4285, TAKE PROFIT 1.3993, STOP LOSS 1.4285 (revised)

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 186.45, TAKE PROFIT 190.00, STOP LOSS 186.77 (revised)

Trade ideas:

EUR/CHF: BUY at 1.0830, TAKE PROFIT 1.0950, STOP LOSS 1.0789

NZD/USD: Possibly SELL

________________________________________________________

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
AUD/CHF: buy target - 0.7400
19 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• AUD/CHF reached buy targets 0.7130 and 0.7200
• Next buy target - 0.7400

AUD/CHF has been rising strongly in the last few days inside the accelerated minor impulse wave (iii) – which belongs to the sharp C-wave from the end of September. The active impulse wave (iii) recently broke through the resistance levels 0.7130 and 0.7200 – both of which were set in our earlier forecast as the buy targets for this currency pair. The breakout of these resistance levels intensified the bullish pressure on AUD/CHF.

The price is currently trading close to the resistance level 0.7300 (top of previous wave (iv), intersecting with the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from August). If the pair breaks above 0.7300 - AUD/CHF can then rise to the next buy target 0.7400.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7120

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/CHF: buy targets - 1.5600 and 1.5800
19 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• GBP/CHF reached buy target 1.5400
• Next buy targets - 1.5600 and 1.5800

GBP/CHF has been rising sharply in the last few trading sessions – following the earlier breakout of the pivotal resistance level 1.5400 (which reversed previous primary impulse wave ① and which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of this resistance level greatly accelerated the active impulse wave (3) – which belongs to the primary impulse wave ③ from the start of October.

GBP/CHF is likely to rise further in the active impulse waves (3) and ③ in the direction of the next buy target 1.5600 – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 1.5800.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7119

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for November 20

By Kira Iukhtenko

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US Dollar retraced lower on Thursday on the back of the “less-hawkish-than-expected” policy meeting minutes. Generally, the document still remains quite hawkish and leaves the door open for a rate hike in December. Beware the Fed's members' comments on Friday and Saturday, though: they could be disappointing for the greenback. This is the only thing to watch in the US calenar till the end of the week.

EUR/USD attempted to rally above 1.0700, but erased gains quickly. Listen to the ECB President Mario Draghi on Friday – he'll deliver a speech at the Euro Finance week in Frankfurt. The ECB minutes on Thursday turned out to be rather dovish, but the market underestimated the tone, in my view: increased deflationary pressures and potential for a policy change were discussed. We target the 1.0500 mark in the near term. Resistance for the pair lies at 1.0800/30.

GBP/USD volatility remains very high. The cable approached the 1&5300 mark on Thursday. A break higher could open the way to 1.5500 once again, but we don't expect this bullish move to be long-lived.

USD/JPY retraced lower from the local high at 123.70. However, a bullish channel with a key support at 122.50 still remains in play. We are ready to buy from these levels. Watch the monthly BOJ report on Friday.

Friday is an intense day for USD/CAD: watch the October retail sales and CPI in Canada. The pair is testing the trend support as we write, but the major level below is 1.3220. We don't expect the decline to be long – the oil market is testing new lows these days.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7123

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/JPY: sell target - 130.00
20 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• EUR/JPY reversed from resistance level 132.00
• Next sell target - 130.00

EUR/JPY continues to fall after the recent sharp downward reversal from the pivotal resistance level 132.00 (former strong support level which has been reversing the price from the start of September, acting as resistance now after it was broken recently). The downward reversal from the resistance level 132.00 is likely to strengthen the bearish pressure on this currency pair in the coming trading sessions.

EUR/JPY is likely to fall further in the active impulse wave (iii) (which belongs to the C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (2) from the start of June) toward the next sell target at the round support level 130.00.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7128

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
AUD/CAD: buy target - 0.9560
20 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• AUD/CAD broke resistance zone
• Next buy target - 0.9560

AUD/CAD continues to rise after the recent breakout of the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the resistance level 0.9550 (which reversed earlier waves Aand (b)) and the resistance trendline of the wide daily down channel from January. The breakout of this resistance zone is likely to accelerate the active impulse wave (iii) – which is a part of the C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (4) from the start of September.

AUD/CAD is likely to rise further in the active waves (iii), C and (4) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 0.9560 (which reversed previous wave (iv) in August). Buy stop-loss can be placed below the recently broken price level 0.9550.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7129

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/JPY: forecast for Novemver 23-29

Elizabeth Belugina

USD/JPY remains supported by the US yields, which, in turn, are higher on the expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon tighten its policy. The large speculators once again increased their net short positions on Japanese currency.

However, the pair lacks bullish drivers from Japan. Last week the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged. The regulator maintained the assessment that Japanese economy continued to recover moderately. Governor Kuroda dismissed contraction of the nation’s GDP saying it was caused not by weaker demand but by inventory adjustments. As a result, the prospects of further easing from the Bank of Japan were pushed further into future. This is the big factor limiting the yen’s decline.

This week the most important events in Japanese economic calendar will be the Bank of Japan’s meeting minutes on Wednesday and the nation’s inflation data on Friday.

Trading will likely remain broadly consolidative. Resistance is at 123.80, 124.15 and 125.00. Support is at 122.50, 122.00 and 121.80. Watch news from the US – Fed’s announcement on Monday, American GDP and consumer confidence on Tuesday and durable goods on Wednesday. We will be looking for the opportunities to open small longs on the improving data from the United States.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7152

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/USD: forecast for November 23-29

Elizabeth Belugina

Last week EUR/USD once again reversed to the downside sliding to 7-month lows just above 1.0600.

The focus remains on the monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. The ECB president Mario Draghi talked dovish on Friday, while the US central bank may take on Monday the first step towards the future increase of the Fed funds rate.

Fresh euro area’s November manufacturing & services PMIs released on Monday came out better than expected. Fundamentally though, traders continue to think that the region’s economy is weak and that the ECB will inject more euros into its financial system. During the other days of the week there will be some data releases of medium importance in the euro area.

Technically the bearish momentum has slowed down. Much of the upcoming increase in the ECB’s monetary stimulus is already priced in. The same is with the expected tightening of the Fed’s policy. Still, any recovery in the euro, if happens, will be short-lived. According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), net euro shorts have doubled since the middle of October, but although the number of shorts has become big, it remains below March maximum, so the possibility of further bearish pressure on the single currency is high. In fact, EUR/USD does not have many reasons to rise, so we remain the sellers.

Support is at 1.0600 ahead of 1.0520 and 1.0460. Resistance is at 1.0670, 1.0700 and 1.0800.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7151

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for November 24

Open positions:

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0720, TAKE PROFIT 1.0458, STOP LOSS 1.0766

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.5170, TAKE PROFIT 1.5000, STOP LOSS 1.5235

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 123.00, TAKE PROFIT 124.63, STOP LOSS 122.19

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9820, TAKE PROFIT 1.0310, STOP LOSS 1.0089

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7125, TAKE PROFIT 0.7297, STOP LOSS 0.7130

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3150, TAKE PROFIT 1.3557, STOP LOSS 1.3240

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 133.35, TAKE PROFIT 129.62, STOP LOSS 132.35

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.6936, STOP LOSS 0.7045

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0830, TAKE PROFIT 1.0950, STOP LOSS 1.0785

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.4285, TAKE PROFIT 1.3993, STOP LOSS 1.4285

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.6520, TAKE PROFIT 0.6699, STOP LOSS 0.6460

________________________________________________________

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
CHF/JPY: sell target - 120.00
24 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• CHF/JPY broke pivotal support level 121.30
• Next sell target - 120.00

CHF/JPY has been falling sharply in the last few trading sessions – following the earlier breakout of the pivotal support level 121.30 (which also previous stopped the sharp minor impulse wave 1, as you can see below). The breakout of this support level intensified the bearish pressure on this currency pair – accelerating the active minor impulse wave 3 – which is a part of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from October.

CHF/JPY is expected is fall further in the active impulse waves 3 and (3) toward the next sell target at the round support level 120.00 (which reversed the previous sharp wave Ⓐ in March). Strong resistance remains at 121.30.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7163

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for November 25

Elizabeth Belugina

The Dollar Index (DXY) remains near the 8-month high in the 100.00 area, though American currency was undergoing a slight correction on Tuesday. The US released lower housing and manufacturing PMI data released on Monday, but on Tuesday American Q3 GDP was revised to the upside. Watch the publication of durable goods figures at 13:30 GMT on Wednesday. All in all, the greenback will likely trade rather moderately ahead of the bank holiday on Thursday (Thanksgiving Day).

EUR/USD formed a ‘hammer’ candle on Monday after testing 1.0600. The big figure allowed the pair to stabilize and consolidate a bit. There was also some fundamental help. The week started with rather positive figures from the euro area: the region’s manufacturing PMI released on Monday was the highest since April 2014, while European services PMI was at the maximum of 4 ½ years. On Tuesday German IFO business climate index has followed this bright suit with the reading of 109.0 (highest since June 2014). However, although some analysts have started to question whether the European Central Bank now needs to increase stimulus in De cember, the consensus is that it will. As a result, the market players are cautious with the euro longs at this point. Resistance is at 1.0670, 1.0700 and 1.0760. Support is at 1.0600 and 1.0520. Nothing very important in the euro zone’s economic calendar on Wednesday.

GBP/USD slid below Tuesday opening levels on comments from the Bank of England’s Carney and Haldane. The policymakers outlined that negative risks for the British economy prevail and that the nation is expected to remain in low interest rate environment for some time. Decline below 1.5100 will open the way down to 1.5030/00 and 1.4975 (support line). Resistance is at 1.5155, 1.5200 and 1.5260. The UK Government will release Autumn forecast statement at 12:30 GMT.

USD/JPY corrected down to 122.40 on the market’s subdued risk sentiment. Support is at 122.22, 122.00 and 121.80. Resistance is at 123.25. The increase above 123.60 is unlikely, while the slide to 121.50 in the current environment is possible.

AUD/USD is consolidating around 0.7200. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor Stevens sounded optimistic about the nation’s economic outlook, though underlined that the central bank is ready to act if necessary. If Aussie manages to stay above 0.7200, it may be able to test 0.7250 and 0.7280 (September highs). However, it’s clear that Aussie doesn’t have grounds for a sustainable rally.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7166