Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for August 17


Open positions:

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 124.30, TAKE PROFIT 125.86, STOP LOSS 123.75

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9750, TAKE PROFIT 0.9984, STOP LOSS 0.9639

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3055, TAKE PROFIT 1.3303, STOP LOSS 1.2938

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 138.20, TAKE PROFIT 140.03, STOP LOSS 137.32

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7122, TAKE PROFIT 0.6894, STOP LOSS 0.7181

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0635, TAKE PROFIT 1.1002 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0749

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 194.20, TAKE PROFIT 197.45, STOP LOSS 192.99

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5565, TAKE PROFIT 1.5701, STOP LOSS 1.5498

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

NZD/USD: Possibly SELL

AUD/USD: Possibly BUY

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[riki143]

Forex Analytics
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Norkina : Australian drops in early trading
18 August 2015-

Tatyana Norkina – analytic for company FBS

Trading currency pair AUD / USD this morning began with a decline in prices. Bears stepped up the pressure after the bulls failed to overcome the resistance just below the 74th figure. Market gradually decreases along the top of a four-hour Ichimoku cloud to 0.7340 , where it is provided support by the Kijun-sen line.

Let’s note, however, that the situation on the market remains positive. Golden Cross and the growing cloud of Ichimoku may attract the interest of long-term players. Also, let us not exclude the possibility of testing the upper boundary of the cloud support in the area of ​​0.7330.

-Technical levels: support - 0.7330 ; Resistance - 0.7380 , 0.7400 , 0.7415 , 0.7440.
-Trading recommendations: 1. Buy - 0.7330; SL - 0.7310; TP1 - 0.7380; TP2 - 0.7400.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6122

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Norkina : Dollar cannot find its strength
18 August 2015

Tatyana Norkina – analytic for company FBS

The US dollar is not able to recover strength against the yen after Friday's rebound from the 124.50 resistance. The course of the currency pair USD / JPY remains inside the Tenkan-Kijun channel, under the resistance line Tenkan-sen on the four-hour timeframe.

Perhaps, the resumption of offensive bulls is prevented by local overboughtness of the pair, which is confirmed by the Chinkou line. However, in both the short and long term, perspectives, the market situation is owned by the bulls. Indeed, the golden cross and bullish cloud may increase positive sentiment, which will subsequently lead to the breakthrough 124.50.

Technical levels: Support - 124.00 ; Resistance - 124.50.

Trading recommendations: 1. Buy - 124.30; SL - 124.10; TP1 - 125.60; TP2 - 126.00.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6124

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for August 18

Open positions:

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 124.30, TAKE PROFIT 125.86, STOP LOSS 123.75

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9750, TAKE PROFIT 0.9984, STOP LOSS 0.9639

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3055, TAKE PROFIT 1.3303, STOP LOSS 1.2938

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 138.20, TAKE PROFIT 140.03, STOP LOSS 137.32

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7122, TAKE PROFIT 0.6894, STOP LOSS 0.7181

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0635, TAKE PROFIT 1.1002 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0749

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 194.20, TAKE PROFIT 197.45, STOP LOSS 192.99

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.6600, TAKE PROFIT 0.6403, STOP LOSS 0.6655

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: Possibly BUY

AUD/USD: Possibly BUY

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

________________________________________________________________

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for August 19

Kira Iukhtenko



Wednesday is going to be an important day for the US dollar. We will be watching the inflation data and the FOMC meeting minutes. The US currency could get fundamental support from the Chinese economic developments and the commodity rout extension.

GBP/USD has finally tested the levels above 1.5700 after the upbeat UK inflation releases. CPI added 0.1%, while the core CPI surged to 1.2% (5-months high). Price growth raised hopes for the BOE rate hike in the near future. Fix above 1.5700 would open the way to our next target of 1.5790.

There are no important releases to watch in the euro area until Friday. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is testing the 1.1050 support as we write (100-day MA). Fix below would trigger a move to 1.0820. Fed’s expectations will play the biggest part in the coming days.

RBA meeting minutes released on Tuesday showed the central bank is satisfied with the AUD depreciation. We see space for more downside in the coming sessions. China’s risks will influence the Aussie, so the pair AUD/USD targets 0.7315.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6128

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key currency options
19 August 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.1000 (EUR 611m), 1.1040 (346m), 1.1100 (271m), 1.1150 (154m)

GBP/USD: 1.5700 (GBP 135m)

USD/JPY: 124.00 (USD 528m), 124.50 (385m), 125.00 (334m), 126.00 (727m)

USD/CHF: 0.9800 (USD 480m)

USD/CAD: 1.3050 (USD 398m), 1.3100 (133m), 1.3150 (200m), 1.3185 (191m)

AUD/USD: 0.7295 (AUD 249m), 0.7360 (163m)

EUR/JPY: 136.75 (EUR 247m), 137.00 (153m), 137.50 (200m)

EUR/GBP: 0.6900 (EUR 1.2bln), 0.6975/80 (200m)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/3385

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Euro trading inside cloud
19 August 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

EURUSD made its way into the four-hour cloud area yesterday, after the bulls failed to break through the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen lines resistance. The support formed by the cloud's lower border around 1.1010 was tested yesterday as well. So far, the level is retained by the bulls, however, the short-term trend is determined by the dead cross. Let us also note that at the current levels, the buyers' progress will be hindered by both the cloud's upper border and Tenkan-sen, in the ​​1.1070 area. And the 11th figure contains the Kijun-sen resistance. The bulls might attempt to move into the positive area today, but further trading is obvious to continue within the cloud.

Technical levels: support – 1.1000; resistance – 1.1070, 1.1100.

Trade recommendations: out of market.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6132

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Pound attempting to grow
19 August 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The GBP/USD currency pair found support at 1.5560 yesterday. It is here that a powerful level has been formed by the Ichimoku cloud upper border on the four-hour timeframe. Supported by the positive cloud, the bulls took it as a signal for purchases, making the pair finally break through the notorious 1.5650 resistance. The daily high was set at 1.5716 but then the market returned to the 1.5650 mark to test the Kijun-sen line support.

Obviously, the bullish sentiment might increase in the near future. The goal for purchases may be the 1.5780/90 mark.

Technical levels: support – 1.5650; resistance – 1.5730, 1.5780.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.5670; SL — 1.5650; TP1 — 1.5730; TP2 — 1.5780.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6133

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for August 20

US CPI data came in at 0.1% for headline and core, below the 0.2% estimates, but real average earnings rose from 1.8% to 2.2% helping US dollar recover after the initial sip. Traders are also positioning for the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday – the market is probably pricing in a more hawkish statement. Traders will be looking for the indication of how many central bank members lean towards September rate hike. Comments about the labor market and inflation will be also important. On Thursday there will be another bunch of American economic statistics: unemployment claims at 12:30 GMT and existing home sales and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (positive forecast) at 14:00 GMT.

EUR/USD continued its way below the 100-day MA at 1.1048. The German Bundestag has voted in favor of the third bailout for Greece. Greece is scheduled to repay 3.5 billion euro to the European Central Bank (ECB). Support is at 1.1015/1.1000 and 1.0950. Resistance is at 1.1050, 1.1090/1.1100 and 1.1130. The pair has topped last week, but the euro still has underlying strength, so the bearish bias may soften.

GBP/USD jumped on Tuesday, but failed to close above 1.5700 mark. Only a close above this point will bring the pair to 1.5785/1.5815. UK will release retail sales data at 08:30 GMT (positive forecast). Support is at 1.5590 (55-day MA).

USD/JPY made a spike down towards 124.00, but then recovered to 124.40. Resistance is at 124.50 (50% of the decline after Chinese yuan devaluation) and then at 124.70 and 124.90/125.00. The instability in China supports demand for the yen as a safe haven and limits the pair’s advance. The Bank of Japan meeting will take place on Thursday. In its recent comments, the regulator hinted that it was no planning to increase monetary stimulus as the yen has already weakened much. If the Bank of Japan sticks to this position, the advance of USD/JPY will remain limited. Long USD positions here seem risky.

AUD/USD is getting ready for a break of either 0.7315 or 0.7375. Support will likely come under pressure.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6143

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Aussie held above cloud
20 August 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The AUD/USD currency pair has been trying desperately to consolidate above the four-hour Ichimoku cloud in the recent days. The main support was at the 0.7320 level, which the bulls had been firmly holding since Tuesday.

Given the generally positive Ichimoku indicator, a break trhough the Tenkan and Kijun lines resistance in the 0.7360 area might inspire buyers that would choose the short-term level of 0.7450 as their goal. However, currently the Tenkan and Kijun lines are quite firmly keeping the dead cross relevant. Therefore, purchases will be possible only after the prices fix above the Kijun line.

Technical levels: support – 0.7330/40 resistance – 0.7380, 0.7400, 0.7415, 0.7440.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7350; SL — 0.7330; TP1 — 0.7400; TP2 — 0.7440.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6144

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Dollar weakened against Yen
20 August 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The USD/JPY currency pair rate plummeted into the negative area yesterday after all, below the four-hour Ichimoku cloud. The bulls were trying desperately to keep the prices in the ​​cloud area, taking advantage of the lower border support around ​​124.10, but the bears turned out stronger. As a result, the pair has updated the three-week lows, having gone down to the 123.67 mark.

The bearish sentiment is obvious to prevail in the market in the near future since the Ichimoku cloud has changed for the negative and the Tenkan and Kijun lines have formed a dead cross. The Senkou Span B line retest migth make new sales possible.

Technical levels: support – 123.50; resistance – 124.00.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 124.00; SL — 124.20; TP1 — 123.50; TP2 — 123.10.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6145

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: forecast for August 24 - 30
21 August 2015

Kira Iukhtenko

Improved UK inflation data and a declining dollar supported the British pound over the past week. GBP/USD reached 1.5-month highs above 1.5700 (prior strong resistance). The market is now forming a long-legged candle on the weekly chart (bullish signal). It is important for us whether the pound will be able to fix above 1.5730 (trend line on the chart). Next bullish targets could be seen at 1.5800/10 and 1.5870 (50% Fibonacci from the 2014-2015 decline) in this case.

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

British government is gradually preparing for a rate hike, pushing the exchange rate higher. However, you should keep in mind that increased risk aversion and weak US figures could force the Fed to delay the first rate hike. Bank of England will likely follow its US counterpart, switching the hike expectations back into 2016. That’s why we don’t expect the bulls to stay in the sterling for too long.

Next week we'll be watching UK Q2 GDP (second estimate) and the news from the United States.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6161

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: forecast for August 24-30
21 August 2015

By Elizabeth Belugina

USD/JPY slid below 123.00. Japanese yen strengthened as a safe haven, because worse-than-expected economic figures from China and other events kept investors’ risk sentiment getting worse and worse.

The case for further easing by the Bank of Japan is building. Japanese economy contracted in Q2. GDP fell by an annualized 1.6%. Japan’s export growth slowed in July, while private sector demand is low.

On Friday, Japan will release inflation and retail sales figures. According to the Reuters poll, core consumer prices in Japan have slipped in July, the first fall in more than 2 years. Other data may to provide some positive news: according to the forecasts, household spending probably rose in July as hot weather spurred sales of summer clothing and air conditioners. Retail sales are expected to show a 1.1% gain in July on-year, up for the four straight month, though the pace of growth has moderated in the past few months.

There are some expectations of the Bank of Japan’s additional monetary stimulus in October. These expectations will provide some support for the pair. However, the central bank is very unlikely to make any new steps before the Federal Reserve’s meeting on September 17.

All in all, we expect USD/JPY to remain under pressure. Next support is in the 122.30/00 psychological area and at 121.50 (2015 uptrend line). On the upside resistance is at 123.60 and 124.50.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6167

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: forecast for August 24-30
21 August 2015

By Elizabeth Belugina

The past week was eventful for the euro area and especially for Greece. International creditors agreed to provide the nation with 86-billion euro bailout. Greece will be getting the money within the next 3 years. In return, Greek authorities will have to raise taxes and cut spending. Greece got the first 26-billion tranche on Thursday: 10 billion will be used to recapitalize the banks, while about 3 billion were repaid to the ECB.

In the near term, we will see plenty of political news from Greece. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras resigned because of a rebellion in his leftist Syriza party. Tsipras now aims to take part in the snap parliamentary elections reported on September 20 in order to strengthen his hold on power. For now, the market views the resignation of Tsipras as positive for the euro believing that it could facilitate the negotiations with the European authorities. For now, under the Greek constitution, the three largest parties will try to form a temporary government – this process may be rather difficult.

EUR/USD jumped towards 1.1300 as the less hawkish Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes. The single currency is used as a refuge as capital is flying from emerging markets. Safe haven demand will keep the euro supported until there are better economic data coming from the US and China. As a result, we recommend being very cautious with short positions next week. Buying on the dips will be better as a short-term strategy.

Next week there will not be many important economic releases in the euro area, except German Ifo business climate on Tuesday. In addition, pay attention to the meeting of the global monetary authorities in Jackson Hole.

Resistance is at 1.1340 (200-day MA), 1.1380 and 1.1430/67. Support is located at 1.1215, 1.1130/00, 1.1075 and 1.1015.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6166

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

US dollar: forecast for August 24 - 30
21 August 2015

Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar index reached its lowest level since June 30 by the end of the week (95.40). Increased global uncertainty lowers expectations for a Fed’s rate hike on the September 17 meeting. Dovish Fed’s policy minutes and lower inflation data became another argument against a premature hike. Futures market is currently pricing in only 24% chance for a Fed’s hike in September.

Chart. USD Index Weekly

We believe the US currency has some room for a corrective decline, but the buyers are expected to return into the market ahead of the September 4 NFP. It will finally become clear that there is nothing more stable than the US economy these days.

US are scheduled to release a bag of important figures on the new week. Pay special attention to the Q2 GDP second estimate. There is a chance for the figure to be revised higher from the preliminary +2.3% reading. The famous Jackson Hole symposium starts on Thursday.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6164

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Aug 24

Open positions:

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 137.50, TAKE PROFIT 140.67 (revised), STOP LOSS 137.75 (revised)

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.5635, TAKE PROFIT 1.5789, STOP LOSS 1.5595

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7350, TAKE PROFIT 0.7066, STOP LOSS 0.7328 (revised)

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3055, TAKE PROFIT 1.3337 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.2938

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: Look to BUY

USD/CHF: Look to SELL

USD/JPY: Look to SELL

EUR/GBP: Look to BUY

EUR/CHF: Look to BUY

EUR/CAD: Look to BUY

GBP/JPY: Look to SELL

NZD/USD: Look to SELL

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[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for August 25

Kira Iukhtenko



On Monday, all the stock markets collapsed starting from China. Shanghai Composite fell by 8.5% in the Asian trade, pulling all the indices lower. As a result, market appetite turned negative and the commodity rout extended. Investors rushed into the safe-haven assets, such as EUR, JPY, GBP and CHF. As for the metals, the only asset that survived for now is Gold. It stays in demand as a refuge.

We expect the current risk-off trend to continue until we see a significant rebound in China. Watch the Bank of China’s actions as at a certain point they will have to intervene to save the economy. We advise joining the trend and selling the commodity and risky assets until that happens. AUD and NZD are an attractive SELL these days.

EUR/USD is being bought as the carry trade operations became senseless in the current conditions. We expect the euro to stay supported as the crisis goes on. Buy the pair on dips to 1.1470. GBP/USD is also an attractive pair to go long after it closed above the 1.5700 resistance. Target 1.5800 and 1.5870 this week.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6189

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for August 25

Open positions:

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7215, TAKE PROFIT 0.6954, STOP LOSS 0.7295

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3055, TAKE PROFIT 1.3400 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.3058

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 138.05, TAKE PROFIT 135.56, STOP LOSS 139.05

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0815, TAKE PROFIT 1.1002, STOP LOSS 1.0745

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.5215, TAKE PROFIT 1.5586, STOP LOSS 1.5115

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: BUY at 1.1485, TAKE PROFIT 1.1808, STOP LOSS 1.1400

USD/JPY: SELL at 120.20, TAKE PROFIT 115.86, STOP LOSS 122.15

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5725, TAKE PROFIT 1.5930, STOP LOSS 1.5625

EUR/GBP: BUY at 0.7225, TAKE PROFIT 7483, STOP LOSS 0.7150

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.6540, TAKE PROFIT 0.6342, STOP LOSS 0.6635

GBP/JPY: Look to BUY

USD/CHF: Look to SELL

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[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/CAD: buy target - 1.3400
25 August 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-USD/CAD reached buy target 1.3200
-Next buy target - 1.3400

USD/CAD yesterday broke sharply above the resistance level 1.3200 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave 1 at the start of August and which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of this resistance level is likely to accelerate the active minor impulse wave 3 – which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from June - which is itself a part of the primary impulse wave ③ from May.

USD/CAD is expected to rise further in the active impulse waves 3, (3) and ③ toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.3400 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3). Strong support remains at 1.3200.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6197

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for August 26

By Elizaveta Belugina

Chinese authorities finally addressed the economic and market turmoil by cutting the benchmark interest rate. The markets felt relief: stocks recovered and oil recovered, while the euro and the yen that strengthened as safe havens during the ‘Black Monday’ declined. US dollar was supported by the low-yielding currencies on the latest news from China as the move of the People’s Bank of China diminished fears that the Federal Reserve will have to delay interest rate hikes. Data released on Tuesday showed that US consumer confidence improved. US durable goods orders will be released at 12:30 GMT on Wednesday (forecast is negative).

EUR/USD spiked towards 1.1715 on Monday, but is now testing 1.1500 to the downside. The pair met resistance of the mildly sloping uptrend, which has been in place since March. In the 1.1700 area, one can also find 55-week MA and resistance of the 2014-2015 decline. Resistance is at 1.1625, 1.1700 and 1.1800. There are signs of a top, and the euro will likely return lower. Support is at 1.1430, 1.1380 and 1.1280. Fundamentally, we think that the ECB won’t like to see the euro so high, so it will be more difficult for the single currency to get much higher at this point.

GBP/USD rose to 1.5800 on Monday closing above 1.5700 since the end of June. Pound should be more cheering of the recovery in oil that the euro. Still, resistance lies at 1.5815 (May high) ahead of 1.5900/30 (July high). Support is at 1.5700 and 1.5630. UK will release data only of the minor importance, so the market’s focus will remain on the US and risk sentiment.

USD/JPY is consolidating below resistance at 120.50 and 121.50. The pair was supported this week by the weekly Ichimoku Cloud and the 55-week MA. However, the advance of the US dollar will likely be limited as the expectations of the Fed’s rate hike took a blow after the recent market’s turmoil. Support is at 119.40, 118.88 and 118.00.

AUD/USD recovered to 0.7200 after testing 0.7038 on Monday. On Wednesday morning, we will hear from the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens. Support is at 0.7170 and 0.7115. Resistance is at 0.7285, 0.7310 and 0.7335.