Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/USD: forecast for October 26-30

By Elizabeth Belugina

EUR/USD fell below 1.1100 in the past week. The pair was hit both by the negative news from the euro area and revival of the market’s demand for the US dollars.

The European Central Bank’s President Mario Draghi said that the regulator is open to increasing monetary stimulus and even discussed the possibility of the deposit rate cut. Although Draghi only suggested policy easing in December, the market got wild about it. The decline of the euro, which followed Draghi’s comments, was the biggest since the ECB announced quantitative easing (QE) in January.

Next week pay attention to German Ifo business climate index on Monday and flash inflation figures on Friday, as well as at the results of the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday.

From the technical point of view, the euro reached the lower border of the ‘flag’ formation formed after the long-term downtrend. As the flag is a continuation pattern, the single currency now looks very vulnerable for downside. There is scope for an increase in the short positions on the euro.

Support levels are 1.1070, 1.1015 and 1.0800. We believe that EUR/USD might need some further catalysts to continue its decent from the current levels like positive US data surprises, more hawkish Fed, weak euro zone’s economic readings. Anyhow, we don’t recommend to buy the euro as the ECB made it clear that it wants weaker currency. We believe that the sellers will materialize around resistance located at 1.1170 and 1.1250. A break below 1.1050 will be also a reason for careful new shorts.

Weekly EUR/USD

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6845

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/JPY: forecast for October 26-30

By Elizabeth Belugina

USD/JPY rose to the upper border of its September-October trading range in the 121.00 area.

Dovish comments from the European Central Bank’s Mario Draghi improved the market’s risk sentiment, and demand for the yen as a safe haven declined. In addition, after the ECB hinted at possibility of policy easing in December, the expectations of the additional monetary stimulus from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) have significantly increased.

The Bank of Japan will meet on Friday. The meeting will be accompanied by the release of the updated economic and inflation forecasts. So far, Japanese officials have been constantly repeating that there is no need for more easing from the BOJ. Still, remembering the central bank’s surprise move of 2014, the market doesn’t believe these denials.

The market will have to wait until of the end of the next week to find out where the BOJ is standing. Until then Japan will release retail sales on Wednesday, industrial production on Thursday and inflation earlier on Friday. Low inflation is the main argument for the Bank of Japan to ease policy. According to the forecasts, Japan’s core inflation probably slipped for a second month in September, while factory output fell for a third month in a row. However, oil prices are now more stable than in the autumn of 2014 and the nation’s labor market is in a rather good shape. This is why the central bank may stay on hold.

The Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday will surely have a significant impact on the pair, though the further trend will depend mostly on the Bank of Japan’s decision. Additional stimulus will make USD/JPY skyrocket to 123.00 and higher. Other resistance levels are at 121.76/80, 122.00 and 122.50. If those who expects increase in stimulus get disappointed, the pair will drop, but 117.00 (long-term uptrend support) should limit the decline. Other support levels include 120.00, 119.60 and 118.80.

Daily USD/JPY

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6846

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for October 27

By Elizabeth Belugina

US dollar significantly strengthened during the last week as the ECB gave dovish comments, while the People’s Bank of China reduced interest rates. This week traders are waiting for the results of the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday (though the rate hike is not expected) and American GDP on Thursday. Demand for USD will likely temper. New home sales released on Monday were a negative surprise. The US will release durable goods orders figures at 12:30 GMT on Tuesday (some improvement after the poor previous release is expected) and consumer confidence index at 14:00 GMT (the forecast is that of a small decline).

EUR/USD rose to 1.1050 on Monday, but found resistance there. The markets now expect that the ECB will step up monetary stimulus in December, so any advance in the euro will be limited. German Ifo business climate didn’t impress the market. Resistance is at 1.1100, 1.1140 and 1.1170. Support is at 1.1000, 1.0950 and 1.0900.

GBP/USD lowered to support line since the beginning of October. The pair’s trying to fix above the 200-day MA in the 1.5335 area and return to 1.5410/30. Next strong resistance is at 1.5500. Below 1.5300 the sellers will pull the pair down to 1.5200. Next support is at 1.5165. The UK will release preliminary Q3 GDP data at 09:30 GMT. British economic growth is expected to slow down from 0.7% to 0.6%. After a very good retail sales report released last week there’s a chance of positive surprise in British GDP. In this case the pound will strengthen versus other currencies.

USD/JPY rose to 121.50. Support is at 120.70 and 120.35. Resistance is at 121.67/80. USD/JPY is supported by the expectations that the Bank of Japan will ease its policy at the end of the week, but before it actually happens, the idea probably won’t be able to drive the pair much above the resistance of September-October range. Short-term outlook is neutral/negative.

AUD/USD is still trying to hold above 0.7200 and raise higher. Friday’s high close to 0.7300 remains a resistance: Chinese easing didn’t get an extremely positive effect on the Aussie. Next resistance is the 100-day MA at 0.7320. Next support is at 0.7167 (55-day MA). The next big risk for Australian dollar is Australia’s inflation data on Wednesday.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6868

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
CAD/JPY: sell targets - 91.00 and 90.00
27 October 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• CAD/JPY reversed from resistance zone
• Next sell targets - 91.00 and 90.00

CAD/JPY continues to fall after the price earlier reversed down from the strong resistance zone lying at the intersection of the resistance level 92.60 (which has been reversing the price for the last few trading days) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the previous sharp downward impulse wave from the middle of June. The latest two downward reversals from this resistance zone stopped the previous corrections 2 and (2) (as can be seen below).

CAD/JPY is likely to fall further in the active impulse waves 3 and (3) (which belong to the primary downward impulse wave ③ from June) toward the next sell targets at the next support levels 91.00 and 90.00.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6875

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/CAD: buy target 1.3300
27 October 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• USD/CAD reached buy target 1.3100
• Next buy target 1.3300

USD/CAD has been rising strongly in the last few trading sessions - breaking through the resistance level 1.3100, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this resistance level accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3 – which started recently – when the price reversed up from support zone surrounding the pivotal support level 1.2850 (as can be seen below).

USD/CAD is currently approaching the resistance level 1.3200. If the price breaks this resistance level - USD/CAD can then rise further to the next buy target at the next resistance level1.3300.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6874

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for October 27

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1055, TAKE PROFIT 1.0848, STOP 1.1143

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 120.35, TAKE PROFIT 122.13; STOP AT 119.59

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.5365, TAKE PROFIT 1.5201, STOP LOSS 1.5425

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7217, TAKE PROFIT 0.7002, STOP LOSS 0.7312

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2970, TAKE PROFIT 1.3218, STOP LOSS 1.3030 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 134.00, TAKE PROFIT 132.23, STOP LOSS 134.35 (revised)

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 183.20, TAKE PROFIT 188.31, STOP LOSS 184.41

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.6745, TAKE PROFIT 0.6937, STOP LOSS 0.6680

Trade ideas:

USD/CHF: BUY at 0.9770, TAKE PROFIT 0.9903, STOP LOSS 0.9708

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.4595, TAKE PROFIT 1.4292, STOP LOSS 1.4735

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

EUR/CHF: Possibly BUY

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[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Trading plan for October 28

By Kira Iukhtenko

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US Dollar has lost some ground at the beginning of the new week. Weak US data (housing, durable goods) and the expectations of the Fed pressure the US currency. The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged this time. We’ll be monitoring the Fed’s policy statement – this will launch the further USD trade and define the risk-sentiment. Potential USD pullbacks could be used to go LONG in the medium-term.

EUR/USD has found some temporarily support at 1.1100, but we recommend selling the pair if any rallies occur. Next targets are 1.1000 and 1.0820 (medium-term target). Euro zone’s calendar for tomorrow is light, so all eyes will be glued to the Fed.

GBP/USD gave up some ground after the UK Q3 GDP release. Economy rose by only 0.5%. Break below 1.5300 confirmed our bearish forecasts and opened the way to 1.5000 in the coming days. We’ll stay bearish below 1.5500.

Another event to watch on Wednesday is the RBNZ policy meeting. The regulator is expected to hold rate unchanged at 2.75%. A flag is being constructed on the H4NZD/USD chart. We are ready to SELL below 0.6770.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6882

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EURUSD hushed before FOMC
28 October 2015
Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

EURUSD keeps consolidating in a narrow price range of 1.1020-1.1060, after the past week's collapse. The oversoldness is obvious to prevents bears from increasing pressure, although the four-hour technical picture is fully consistent with the bearish sentiment of the market participants. Indeed, the intensifying dead cross and the down expanding Ichimoku cloud are indicating the long-term sellers presence. More than that, Chinkou Span is gradually exiting the zone of oversoldness.

Today, traders are expecting the FOMC statement on interest rates. It is possible that taking advantage of the increased volatility, the bulls will even try to correct the rate deep into the channel. In any case, trading will be quite risky today.

Technical levels: support – 1.1000; resistance – 1.1060, 1.1090, 1.1150.

Trade recommendations: off the market.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6885

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Pound at important level
28 October 2015
Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

As expected, the GBP/USD currency pair has been trading inside the four-hour Ichimoku cloud recently. The bearish sentiment of the market participants, increasing since the middle of the past week, somewhat subsided after the pair felt support in the 53rd figure area. Let us remind you that here a poweful level has been formed by the cloud's lower border - Senkou Span B.

So far, this level has been held quite firmly. But a break through it would mean a rapid slide of the market under the 52nd figure. The bears would act, relying on the dead cross and the negative Ichimoku cloud.

Technical levels: support – 1.5300; resistance – 1.5400.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.5300; SL — 1.5320; TP1 — 1.5200; TP2 — 1.5170.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6886

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for October 28

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.1055, TAKE PROFIT 1.0848, STOP LOSS 1.1143

USD/JPY: Hold LONG from 120.35, TAKE PROFIT 122.13, STOP LOSS 119.59

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.5365, TAKE PROFIT 1.5201, STOP LOSS 1.5425

USD/CHF: Hold LONG from 0.9820, TAKE PROFIT 0.9984, STOP LOSS 0.9749

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT from 0.7217, TAKE PROFIT 0.7002, STOP LOSS 0.7269 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT from 134.00, TAKE PROFIT 132.23, STOP LOSS 134.01

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT from 1.4595, TAKE PROFIT 1.4292, STOP LOSS 1.4735

NZD/USD: Hold LONG from 0.6745, TAKE PROFIT 0.6937, STOP LOSS 0.6680

Trade ideas:

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7220, STOP LOSS 0.7026, STOP LOSS 0.7275 (revised)

USD/CAD: Possibly BUY

EUR/CHF: Possibly BUY

GBP/JPY: Possibly BUY

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[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/CHF: buy target - 1.0100
29 October 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• USD/CHF broke pivotal resistance level 0.9900
• Next buy target - 1.0100

USD/CHF recently broke above the pivotal resistance level 0.9900 (which stopped the earlier A-wave at the start of August, as can be seen below). The breakout of this resistance level is likely to strengthen the bullish pressure on this currency pair in the coming trading sessions.

USD/CHF is expected to rise further in the active accelerated impulse wave (iii) (which belongs to the C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (2) from the start of May) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.0100 (which previously stopped the extended primary ABC correction ② in March).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6902

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
NZD/USD: sell target - 0.6600
29 October 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• NZD/USD reversed from resistance level 0.6850
• Next sell target - 0.6600

NZD/USD continues to fall after the recent double reversal from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 0.6850 and the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp downward (C)-wave from the end of April. The first downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the previous intermediate ABC correction (A). The latest downward reversal from the same resistance area started the C-wave of the active intermediate ABC correction (B).

NZD/USD is likely to fall further in the active waves C and (B) toward the next sell target at the next support level 0.6600. Strong resistance remains at 0.6850.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6903

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
NZD/CAD: buy target - 0.9000
30 October 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• NZD/CAD reversed from support zone
• Next buy target - 0.9000

NZD/CAD continues to rise after the recent upward reversal from the support zone lying between the support level 0.8830 (former strong resistance level which stopped the previous A-wave in August, as you can see below) and the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp C-wave from September (which started when the pair reversed up from the major support level 0.8300).

The upward reversal from the aforementioned support zone is likely to lead to further gains toward the next buy target at the next resistance level 0.9000 (which recently stopped the previous intermediate ABC correction (2)).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6910

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
AUD/NZD: sell target - 1.0400
30 October 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• AUD/NZD broke strong support zone
• Next sell target - 1.0400

AUD/NZD continues to fall strongly – after the price recently broke through the powerful support zone lying between the support levels 1.0700 and 1.0600. The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3 – which started earlier – when the pair reversed down from the former support trendline of the recently broken daily down channel from June (acting as resistance now, after it was broken).

AUD/NZD is likely to continue to fall in the accelerated waves 3 , (C) and ② toward the next sell target at the next support level 1.0400. Sell stop-loss can be placed above the resistance level 1.0600.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6911

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/JPY: forecast for November 2-8

By Elizabeth Belugina

The Bank of Japan didn’t increase the size of its monetary stimulus package. As a result, USD/JPY failed to make a big break to the upside. The pair remained limited on the upside by the 121.50 area.

However, declines of dollar/yen after the central bank’s meeting weren’t very extensive.Many still expect the Bank of Japan to ease sometime in future, later this year or in early 2016. As a result, the pair has fundamental support around 118.00/117.50.

Japan still has the problem of deflation: core consumer prices fell for the second month in a row in September. However, the Bank of Japan is already buying immense number of bonds to help the economy and lift up prices, so further easing is risky. The yen is at the comfortable levels for the regulator and the bid tone for USD/JPY remains as the Federal Reserve’s rate hike remain on the table. All in all, despite Japanese economic problems, the central bank can allow itself to remain in the wait-and-see mode keeping the current policy unchanged. On the broad scale, it means that USD/JPY won’t diverge much form its current trading range.

In the short term the pair may be affected by the swings in risk sentiment. There will be a big release of Chinese data on Monday morning. Lower manufacturing PMI in China will increase demand for the yen as a safe haven. In addition, pay attention to the US economic releases: together with the risk sentiment they will represent the main driver of USD/JPY.

Trading is going to be volatile. Support is at 120.00, 119.60 and 118.00. Resistanceisat 121.00, 121.80 and 122.50.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6917

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
US Dollar: forecast for November 2-8

By Kira Iukhtenko
The US Federal Reserve decided to leave interest rates unchanged at its October meeting. However, the policy statement switched into the hawkish territory. As a result, expectations for the Fed’s rate hike in December surged, offering support to the US Dollar in all the currency pairs, except for the USD/JPY pair.

However, traders still have some doubts that the Fed will really hike on its next meeting in December. Weak economic data from the US raise some questions. Last week we have seen that the US economy grew by 1.5% in Q3, down from 4% in Q2.

The US dollar has potential for more growth, but trade on the next week will depend on the economic data. We’ll be focused on the labor market figures on Friday. In September the US economy added only 142K new jobs. Hopefully the picture has improved in October. We recommend buying the US dollar in all the major pairs on upbeat data.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6912

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/USD: forecast for November 2-8

By Elizabeth Belugina

The more hawkish than expected meeting of the Federal Reserve pulled EUR/USD down, to the new lows since the beginning of August at 1.09. The pair once again fell into trading on the monetary policy divergence between the US and Europe. Data from the euro area in the past week was mostly weak, though the flash inflation figures for October improved after declining in September.

The market is still convinced that the European Central Bank will ease its monetary policy further either in December, or early in next year. Such expectations act as a drag on the single currency capping any recovery of the EUR/USD. The pair will meet resistance at the big figures of 1.11, 1.12 and then at 1.1250.

Next week pay attention to the speech of the ECB’s president Mario Draghi on Tuesday and the European Union’s economic forecasts on Thursday. Draghi may offer new hints on the ECB’s assessment of the region’s economy and further plans. In addition, beware of the news from the United States: the Fed’s Chairwoman Janet Yellen will speak on Wednesday, while on Friday America will release nonfarm payrolls for October, and the event will surely rack the market.

Support for EUR/USD lies at 1.08 and below this point there won’t be much of the help for the euro bulls until 1.05. We prefer short positions on the euro in the current environment.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6919

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/USD: forecast for November 2-8

By Kira Iukhtenko

British pound had another volatile week. GBP/USD slipped below 1.5250 as the US Federal Reserve turned out to be more hawkish on its meeting. However, sentiment changed to bullish by the end of the week. The pair formed a bullish engulfing candle on Thursday and the pair jumped back up above 1.5300. The trend line of the bearish channel was broken to the upside.

The next strong resistance is now seen at 1.5390. This is the resistance of the potential wedge pattern (red lines on the chart). We expect the pair to retrace from this level and to retest the last week’s support at 1.5250. Technical picture for the coming weeks remains bearish.

We will watch the block of UK PMIs at the beginning of the new week. Thursday will likely become a volatile day for the cable: the Bank of England will hold its policy meeting and release the quarterly inflation report. According to the most recent data, inflation expectations for the next year declined in October and have stayed below the Bank’s target for 13 months. UK interest rate is widely expected to stay on hold in 2015, so the upside of the pound remains capped.

Chart. GBP/USD Daily

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6914

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/JPY: buy target - 134.00
2 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• EUR/JPY reversed from pivotal support level 132.00
• Next buy target - 134.00

EUR/JPY recently reversed up sharply from the pivotal support level 132.00 (which also previously stopped the sharp minor impulse wave (i) at the start of September, as you can see below). The upward reversal from this support level created the strong daily Japanese candlestick reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing – stopping the previous minor impulse wave (iii) – which belongs to the C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (2) from the start of June.

Given the fact that the daily Stochastic is still moving in the oversold territory - EUR/JPY can be expected to rise further from the current levels toward the next buy target at the resistance level 134.00.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6938

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for November 2

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.1055, TAKE PROFIT 1.0848, STOP LOSS 1.1102

USD/JPY: Hold LONG from 120.35, TAKE PROFIT 122.13, STOP LOSS 119.98

USD/CHF: Hold LONG from 0.9820, TAKE PROFIT 1.0069, STOP LOSS 0.9799

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT from 0.7217, TAKE PROFIT 0.6937, STOP LOSS 0.7217

USD/CAD: HoldLONG from 1.3150, TAKE PROFIT 1.3457, STOP LOSS 1.3035

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT from 133.35, TAKE PROFIT 129.62, STOP LOSS 134.30

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT from 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.7026, STOP LOSS 0.7253

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG from 1.0890, TAKE PROFIT 1.1012, STOP LOSS 1.0825

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT from 1.4595, TAKE PROFIT 1.4292, STOP LOSS 1.4560

Trade ideas:

GBP/JPY: BUY on dips

NZD/USD: Possibly SELL

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