Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: sell target - 1.1100
25 September 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-EUR/USD reversed from resistance area
-Next sell target - 1.1100

EUR/USD continues to fall after the recent sharp downward reversal from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.1300 and the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp downward price impulse from the strong resistance level 1.1400. The downward reversal from this resistance zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Falling Star, as you can see below.

EUR/USD is likely to fall further – inside the active intermediate impulse wave (3) – toward the next sell target at the support level 1.1100 (which stopped the previous sharp intermediate impulse wave (1) at the start of this month).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6535

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/CHF: buy target - 1.5100
25 September 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/CHF reversed from support area
-Next buy target - 1.5100

GBP/CHF recently reversed up strongly from the support area lying between the support level 1.4900 (former upper boundary of the sideways price range, acting as support now – after it was broken previously), the support trendline of the daily up channel from May and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from the end of August. The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlestick reversal pattern Hammer.

GBP/CHF is likely to rise further in the active impulse wave 3 (which belongs to the intermediate impulse (3) from August) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.5100 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave (i)).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6536

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
US Dollar: forecast for Sept 28-Oct 4

By Kira Iukhtenko

Hawkish comments of the Fed’s chief Janet Yellen pushed the US Dollar higher on the past week. USD index strengthened above 96 points on the increased expectations of the Fed’s hike in 2015. Fix above 100 points will open the way for a new rally.

On the new week, labor market data on Friday will be in focus. US economy is expected to have added 202K new jobs in September. In August, NFP came at just 173K. Strong figures will increase expectations for a hike in October. Meanwhile, downbeat readings will pull the USD down, creating new opportunities for buying on dips.

What’s more, we’ll hear a number of FOMC members speaking this week. You should also watch the manufacturing PMI on Thursday.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6561

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/USD: forecast for Sep 28-Oct 4

By Kira Iukhtenko

GBP/USD remains under selling pressure and formed a “bearish engulfing” candle. However, be the end of the week the pair found support at 1.5160. We don’t recommend selling the pair before it fixes below this mark.

Next support is seen at 1.5050 (trend line). The pair is expected to reverse from this level. Pay attention to the “inverted hammer” candle on the monthly chart. It signals the forthcoming end of the bearish trend.

As for the economic calendar, pay attention to the BOE Carney’s speech on Tuesday, final Q2 GDP on Wednesday and PMI indices later in the week.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6562

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for September 30

By Elizabeth Belugina



The market’s risk sentiment remain unstable and will more likely swing to the negative than to the positive side. Traders continue trying to guess when and how fast the Federal Reserve will be raising interest rate. The speeches of the Fed’s officials at the beginning of the week were mixed and didn’t clarify the picture. Traders will watch American ADP employment report at 12:15 GMT on Wednesday. If the figures disappoint, US dollar will suffer versus the safe-haven yen, franc and even euro. A good reading will raise hopes of good American labor market release on Friday (Nonfarm payrolls or NFP) and support the greenback.

EUR/USD came under bearish pressure as data showed that German and Spanish consumer prices fell more than forecast in September. Low inflation increases the chance that that the European Central Bank will have to do more quantitative easing. On Wednesday, watch inflation data (CPI) for the whole euro area at 09:00 GMT: lower reading here will further strengthen ECB easing expectations and make the euro decline. Support is at 1.1170 and 1.1100 ahead of 1.1015. Resistance is at 1.1280, 1.1300, 1.1325 and 1.1360.

GBP/USD is trying to stay above September low at 1.5134, but the selling interest seems high on the way up to 1.5250. Support is at 1.5088 and 1.5000. The Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carney will speak on Tuesday at 19:40 GMT: we’ll see how this speech will affect the expectations of the BOE rate hike at the beginning of the next year. On Wednesday, at 08:30 GMT, the UK will release current account and final Q2 GDP figures.

USD/JPY tested 119.25 on Tuesday briefly breaking below the lower triangle line and then returned to the middle of its 5-week range around 120.00. We still expect range trading in the coming sessions, so beware of false breaks. On the downside, further support is at 119.00 and 118.50. On the upside, resistance is found at 120.60 and 121.00.

AUD/USD spiked down to 0.6936, but then recoiled up from this level for a second time (double bottom?) and returned close to 0.7000. Although the general downtrend is still in place, Aussie is oversold and may recover to 0.7040/50. Further resistance is at 0.707o and 0.7100. The next support is at 0.6900. Still, AUD is qualified as a riskier asset, so demand for it will be limited. Australia will release statistics on building approvals at 01:30 GMT on Wednesday. The forecast is negative.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6579

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for Sept 30

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1269, TAKE PROFIT 1.1017, STOP LOSS 1.1333

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.80, TAKE PROFIT 123.13 (revised), STOP LOSS 118.95

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.5275, TAKE PROFIT 1.4973, STOP LOSS 1.5265

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9690, TAKE PROFIT 1.0129 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.9665

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.6981, TAKE PROFIT 0.6771, STOP LOSS 0.7053

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3250, TAKE PROFIT 1.3501, STOP LOSS 1.3280

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 134.85, TAKE PROFIT 131.30, STOP LOSS 135.45

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0910, TAKE PROFIT 1.1104, STOP LOSS 1.0823

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.5000, TAKE PROFIT 1.5442, STOP LOSS 1.4870

GBP/JPY: Hold SHORT at 182.00, TAKE PROFIT 179.32, STOP LOSS 183.43

Trade ideas:

EUR/GBP: BUY at 0.7375, TAKE PROFIT 0.7483, STOP LOSS 0.7300

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.6420, TAKE PROFIT 0.6130, STOP LOSS 0.6485

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[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/USD: sell targets - 1.5100 and 1.5000

30 September 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• GBP/USD broke pivotal support level 1.5200
• Next sell targets - 1.5100 and 1.5000

GBP/USD continues to decline after the recent breakout of the pivotal support level 1.5200 (which reversed earlier waves (B) and 1 in June and September, as you can see below). The breakout of this support level coincided with the breakout of the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous primary ABC correction ② from the middle of April. These two support breakouts accelerated the active impulse waves 3 and (3) - which are a part of the primary downward impulse wave ③ from June.

GBP/USD is expected to fall further inside the active impulse waves 3 and (3) toward the next sell targets 1.5100 and 1.5000. Sell stop-loss can be placed above the resistance level 1.5200.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6587

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/CHF: buy targets - 1.1000 and 1.1050
30 September 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• EUR/CHF completed intermediate wave (4)
• Next buy targets - 1.1000 and 1.1050

EUR/CHF continues to rise – following the earlier sharp upward reversal from the support zone lying between the support level 1.0840 (which also previously reversed the pair with the daily Morning Star at the start of September), 61.8% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp impulse wave 5 and the upper channel line of the daily up channel from April. The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing – marking the end of previous wave (4).

EUR/CHF is likely to rise further in the next intermediate impulse wave (5) (which belongs to the extended primary Ⓒ-wave from April) toward the next buy targets 1.1000 and 1.1050 (top of wave (3)).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6588

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for October 1

By Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar remains supported after the release of ADP NFP on Wednesday (200K versus 192K expected). The figures increase expectations for the upbeat official NFP on Friday (forecast 202K).

However, it is not all so bright in the US economy: Chicago PMI entered the contraction territory in September, falling from 54.4 to 48.7. On Thursday, the markets will be watching the US manufacturing PMI – negative surprises could continue here as well. However, for now the market reaction for the news remains muted – we expect the US Dollar to strengthen further later in the week.

Euro remains pressured by the QE extension talks. EUR/USD slipped below the 1.1200 mark. We see a “long-legged doji” reversal candle on the daily chart. Support lies at 1.1100 and 1.1050, while resistance – at 1.1280. Euro zone will also publish a bunch of PMI indices tomorrow.

GBP/USD attempted to move up, but failed to fix above the 1.5160 resistance. We still target 1.5050 and expect a bullish reversal from here. Watch the UK manufacturing PMI tomorrow.

China PMIs are, probably, the most important indices from the tomorrow’s range. Asian markets entered a corrective phase these days, but how long will the optimism live?

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6593

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for Oct 1

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1269, TAKE PROFIT 1.1017, STOP LOSS 1.1333

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.80, TAKE PROFIT 123.13 (revised), STOP LOSS 118.95

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.5275, TAKE PROFIT 1.4973, STOP LOSS 1.5220 (revised)

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9690, TAKE PROFIT 1.0129 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.9665

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 134.85, TAKE PROFIT 131.30, STOP LOSS 135.45 (revised)

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0910, TAKE PROFIT 1.1104, STOP LOSS 1.0823

GBP/JPY: Hold SHORT at 182.00, TAKE PROFIT 179.32, STOP LOSS 183.43

EUR/GBP: Hold LONG at 0.7375, TAKE PROFIT 0.7483, STOP LOSS 0.7300

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.6420, TAKE PROFIT 0.6130, STOP LOSS 0.6485

Trade ideas:

AUD/USD: Possibly BUY

EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL

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[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for October 2

By Elizabeth Belugina

Concerns about a sharp slowdown in the global economy somewhat declined as China’s manufacturing data for September were largely steady from the previous month (49.8 vs. 49.7). This helped US dollar against the refuge currencies, though weak ISM manufacturing PMI sent the greenback down other Forex majors. USD also remains under pressure ahead of the release of US labor market data on Friday. According to the consensus forecast, US nonfarm payrolls rose by 202K in September, while the unemployment rate remained low at 5.1%. As usual, the release is expected to ignite the market’s volatility.

EUR/USD tested lower levels for the second day, though 55- and 100-day Mas in the 1.1140 area provided support. Support is at 1.1130, 1.1100, 1.1050 and 1.1015. Resistance is in the 1.1200/15 zone ahead of 1.1240, 1.1270, 1.1300 and 1.1370. The ECB President Mario Draghi will speak at 01:30 GMT. This speech should be interesting given that the negative surprise in the euro area’s inflation figures and the increased expectations of more QE from the European Central Bank.

GBP/USD keeps trying to hold above 1.5100, but the sellers don’t let it get higher. Still, manufacturing PMI was rather good and this helps support to hold. A move above 1.5200/15 is needed to lighten the mood and give bulls a chance to recover to 1.5300/30. Britain will release construction PMI at 08:30 GMT on Friday (positive forecast). Support is at 1.5088 and 1.5000.

USD/JPY has been consolidating between 120.30 and 119.50. Data released in Japan were mixed: Tankan manufacturing index declined, while services indicator rose. The pair remains within sideways trend with support at 119.50, 119.25 and 119.00. Resistance is at 120.00. 120.35, 120.60 and 121.00.

AUD/USD recovered to 0.7080 encouraged by a reprieve in risk sentiment and the fact that it was technically oversold. Aussie broke above resistance at 0.7040, which is now acting as support. As long as the pair remains above this point it retains the chance to rise to 0.7100 and probably even to 0.7200 where it will find strong resistance. Watch the release of Australian retail sales at 01:30 GMT (positive forecast).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6609

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

CAD/JPY: buy target - 92.00
2 October 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• CAD/JPY reached sell target 90.00
• Next buy target - 92.00

CAD/JPY has been rising sharply in the last few days – following the earlier upward reversal from the strong support zone lying between the support levels 90.00 (sell target set in our previous forecast for this currency pair) and 89.00. The upward reversal from this support zone completed the previous minor B-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (2) from the end of August.

CAD/JPY is likely to rise further in the active wave C toward the next buy target at the resistance level 92.00 (which reversed previous waves A and (b) and which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp minor impulse wave 5 from August).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6612

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

CAD/JPY: buy target - 92.00
2 October 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• CAD/JPY reached sell target 90.00
• Next buy target - 92.00

CAD/JPY has been rising sharply in the last few days – following the earlier upward reversal from the strong support zone lying between the support levels 90.00 (sell target set in our previous forecast for this currency pair) and 89.00. The upward reversal from this support zone completed the previous minor B-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (2) from the end of August.

CAD/JPY is likely to rise further in the active wave C toward the next buy target at the resistance level 92.00 (which reversed previous waves A and (b) and which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp minor impulse wave 5 from August).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6612

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/JPY: forecast for October 5-11

By Elizabeth Belugina

The main event for Japanese yen next week will be the Bank of Japan’s meeting on Wednesday.

The central bank’s Tankan survey showed that sentiment among big Japanese manufacturers slipped in Q3. At the same time, other indicators, such as prospects for profits and plans for construction spending, were positive, providing some hope for the economy. The survey does not point at an unambiguous necessity for the Bank of Japan’s monetary stimulus. The recent comments from the BOJ show that Governor Kuroda still believes that the nation’s economy is on track for inflation, so the regulator does not have to increase quantitative easing (QE), which currently expands the monetary base at an annual pace of 80 trillion yen ($666 billion). However, there are wide fears that Japan may slip in technical recession this year because of falling exports to China and other emerging markets.

Despite Kuroda’s comments, many market players believe that the Bank of Japan will act in October. Investors remember Kuroda’s tactics of big surprise he used last year, when he expressed confidence in Japanese economy and then suddenly dropped the bomb of large QE.

If the central bank does not deliver easing, USD/JPY will make a short-term voyage down, to the 117.00 area and probably to 116.50/00. Surprise easing contrary to Kuroda’s promises, on the other hand, will send dollar/yen to 122.50/123.00 area. Next big resistance in this case will be at 124.80 (trend line from June highs).

Note also that there will be another meeting of Japanese regulator on October 30. This meeting will be accompanied by the release of the BOJ’s economic outlook. If the Bank of Japan chooses to ease policy in October it will more likely choose the end of the month. This is why our main scenario is that the BOJ will keep policy unchanged next week. All in all, the likely lack of easing from the Bank of Japan together with the weak US NFP data makes us bearish on USD/JPY.

Daily USD/JPY

If the Bank of Japan chooses to leave the bond-buying program unchanged, it may decide to inject money into the economy via stock market increasing the amount of exchange-traded funds it purchases. This, in turn, will be a great opportunity to invest in Japanese stocks, for example through CFD on Nikkei 225 index futures.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6617

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/USD: forecast for October 5-11

By Kira Iukhtenko

GBP/USD broke above the 1.5160 resistance on the downbeat US labor market data on Friday. The pair confirmed a reversal “rising wedge” pattern on the daily chart. It seems that the bearish trend has finally ended. The pair is trading in a medium term bullish flag with the next targets at 1.5330 and 1.5500. Next support lies at 1.5050.

As for the economic calendar, you should watch Services PMI on Monday and Manufacturing production on Wednesday. The Bank of England meeting will take place on Thursday. Monetary policy is expected to stay on hold, but it is the change in rhetoric that matters for the market.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6620http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6620

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Home / Forex Analytics
EUR/USD: forecast for October 5-11
2 October 2015, 14:04Comments: 0
By Elizabeth Belugina

During the past week lower-than-expected euro zone’s September inflation figures were welcome by the euro bears, as they strengthened expectations of more monetary stimulus from the European Central Bank. According to the data, the region’s annual inflation was -0.1%. The annual rate of core inflation, however, remained stable at 0.9%.

The ECB president Mario Draghi sounded optimistic about economy saying that it has returned to ‘sustained growth’. Still, earlier Draghi had promised to do more quantitative easing than planned if inflation if inflation keeps declining. As a result, more QE from the ECB is very likely, though it is clear that the central bank is in no hurry to act.

We will hear more from Mario Draghi next week as he delivers another speech on Tuesday. Other important events in the euro area in the coming days include the meetings of the European finance ministers on Monday and Tuesday. The meetings will be devoted to the discussion of Greek bailout. Greek finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos will meet his euro zone counterparts next Monday for the first time since his country’s September 20 election. The work on the first review of the new bailout program, which must be completed by November 15, is beginning. There may be some headlines at the beginning of the next week. For now, the situation in the euro area looks rather stable that allows us to expect that even remaining under pressure the single currency will not give up easily.

US labor market data came out much weaker than expected. Weak NFP was a serious blow for the US dollar bringing the euro up to 1.1300. There is resistance line from August highs in the 1.1330 area, and a close higher is needed to confirm the way up to 1.1460 and 1.1500. In the absence of a break and if we see reversal model, we will go short on the euro targeting 1.1215 and 1.1150. Support of the 55- and 100-day MAs, which are currently a bit above 1.1100 was able to hold for a long time and will likely survive more attacks of the bears. Further support lies at 1.1015/00 (trend line support since March 2015) ahead of 1.0850/00.

Daily EUR/USD

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6619

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
US Dollar: forecast for October 5-11

By Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar was hit by the weak labor market data released on Friday. US economy added only 142K new jobs in September, while the October reading was revised down to 136K. Average hourly earnings showed zero growth, confirming the deflationary pressures in the US economy.

As a result, expectations for the Fed’s rate hike in 2015 fell sharply and are gradually switching to March 2016. Short-term USD prospects worsened: next week we expect to see more downside versus the safe haven currencies. As for the commodity block pairs, USD depreciation is limited. For the mid-term investors it is advised to use the current pullback as a buying opportunity for the greenback.

On the new week United States are to release a bunch of important figures. Watch the ISM non-manufacturing PMI on Monday and the trade balance on Tuesday. Market attention will be focused primarily on the FOMC meeting minutes release on Thursday. On the September 17th meeting 13 out of 17 member supported a rate hike in 2015. Investors hunger for more details of the long-awaited meeting.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6618

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for Oct. 5

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1269, TAKE PROFIT 1.1017, STOP LOSS 1.1333

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9695, TAKE PROFIT 0.9903, STOP LOSS 0.9639

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 134.85, TAKE PROFIT 131.30, STOP LOSS 135.45

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0910, TAKE PROFIT 1.1186 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0823

GBP/JPY: Hold SHORT at 182.00, TAKE PROFIT 179.32, STOP LOSS 183.43

EUR/GBP: Hold LONG at 0.7375, TAKE PROFIT 0.7501 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.7300

Trade ideas:

USD/JPY: BUY at 119.60, TAKE PROFIT 122.13, STOP LOSS 118.59

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5160, TAKE PROFIT 1.5318, STOP LOSS 1.5085

AUD/USD: Possibly SELL higher

USD/CAD: SELL at 1.3327, TAKE PROFIT 1.2952, STOP LOSS 1.3435

EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL

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[riki143]

Forex Analytics
AUD/USD: weekly wave analysis
5 October 2015

Daily. Development within the long downtrend A is over. At the last section we see the formation of the initial phase of the upward correction B.

Weekly. This week we will likely see the pair’s growth, in line with the current layout of the chart. We expect the pair to form impulse [c].

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6634

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/JPY: weekly wave analysis
5 October 2015

Weekly. Here’s the layout of the multi month uptrend. Let’s review the layout of the wave (IV) at the more detailed chart.

H4. The market is moving in the ‘endless’ sideways triangle [iv]. This week we may see the end of the wave e, and then the pair will resume moving down in the new wave [v].

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6633