Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for June 25

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1235, TAKE PROFIT 1.1082, STOP LOSS 1.1301

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 123.75, TAKE PROFIT 125.05, STOP LOSS 123.53

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.5710, TAKE PROFIT 1.5930, STOP LOSS 1.5643

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9282, TAKE PROFIT 0.9438, STOP LOSS 0.9245

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7211, TAKE PROFIT 0.7014, STOP LOSS 0.7271

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0450, TAKE PROFIT 1.0591, STOP LOSS 1.0395

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3850, TAKE PROFIT 1.4225, STOP LOSS 1.3690

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 191.00, TAKE PROFIT 197.45, STOP LOSS 193.42

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.6970, TAKE PROFIT 0.6795, STOP LOSS 0.6945

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2285, TAKE PROFIT 1.2473, STOP LOSS 1.2275

Trade signals:

EUR/JPY: BUY at 138.51, TAKE PROFIT 140.16, STOP LOSS 137.90

AUD/USD: SELL at 0.7794, TAKE PROFIT 0.7533, STOP LOSS 0.7859

________________________________________________________

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for June 26




EUR/USD is fluctuating around 1.1200 as traders await news from Greece. It looks like the negotiators will take their time. On Friday there will be the second day of the EU Economic summit. Before that there will be more discussions and press conferences on Thursday evening. German finance minister Schaeuble said that Greece has actually moved backwards and that no progress has been made so far and that the difference between two sides has become larger. The key differences are over pensions and other budget cuts. On the other hand, EU’s Moscovici said the creditors agree with Greece on some aspects of reform proposals. Support lies at 1.1150 ahead of 1.1050.

The pound was supported on Thursday as the US dollar remained held by the hopes about Greece. Yet, there’s strong resistance for GBP/USD in the 1.5800 area. Support is at 1.5640 and 1.5593 ahead of 1.5550. The Bank of England’s Governor Carney will speak at 14:15 GMT.

USD/JPY is trading sideways. The latest US economic releases have been mildly positive for the greenback, but the yen is supported because of uncertainty about Greece. Keep an eye on Japanese inflation data due early on Friday: figures are expected to be weak and may lead to some USD buying. Still, there’s resistance in the 124.40/60 area ahead of 125.00. Support is at 123.20 and 122.45. The US will release revised consumer sentiment figures at 14:00 GMT on Friday.

AUD/USD has some support above 0.7700/0.7680. Resistance is at 0.7795/0.7800 and 0.7850. The near-term outlook for the pair looks neutral. No important releases are planned in Australia. NZD/USD recovered from 5-year lows, but New Zealand’s trade balance data if shows deficit may hamper the rebound. Resistance is at 0.6940 and 0.7000. Support is at 0.6850.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5592

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD: forecast for June 29 - July 5

Economic data released in America during the past week was mildly encouraging for the greenback. According to the revised figures, the US economy contracted in Q1, but not as strongly as initially estimated. American housing market showed improvement, while consumer spending recorded its largest increase in nearly 6 years in May, further evidence that economic growth was accelerating in Q2.

However, we didn’t see big moves in USD as trading activity plunged because of uncertainty about Greece.

Once a solution in Greece is reached, traders will switch back to the monetary policy divergence. This should help the US currency strengthen against the euro and the Japanese yen as despite cautious comments from the Federal Reserve this month, the market still expects it to raise borrowing costs sometime toward the end of the year, long before central banks in Europe and Japan make similar moves.

Next week we’ll be once again looking at the most volatile component of the US labor market – Non-Farm Employment change indicator which will be released on Thursday. Also watch American consumer confidence on Tuesday and ISM Manufacturing PMI on Wednesday.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5596

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: forecast for June 29 - July 5

Euro zone’s finance ministers failed again to reach an agreement about Greece on Thursday. The talks will resume on Saturday, June 27. According to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, it’s “crucial” to finally get the deal this time. For now the biggest problem in negotiations is that Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsypras refuses to cut pensions. However, if Tsypras accepts more austerity, he may lose support of the parliament and will have to seek a fresh mandate.

There are 2 scenarios ahead: either the Eurogroup secures a bailout for Greece and helps it avert default or it starts developing measures to protect the euro area from the financial market turmoil. Greek government has to repay 1.6 billion euro to the IMF on Tuesday. Note that German parliament has to ratify any changes first before paying for a bailout.

Taking all into account the negotiations that will take place during the weekend, we can expect a volatile opening on Monday. EUR/USD stabilized between in the 1.12 area ahead of the news. Support is at 1.1050 and then at 1.0965 and 1.0825. Resistance is at 1.1300, 1.1465 and 1.1665. In our view, even in case of a Greek relief, the euro’s rally will be short-lived and will represent an opportunity to open short positions.

As for the euro area’s economic calendar, it’s not very full, pay attention to flash inflation data on Tuesday.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5598

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: forecast for June 29 - July 5

USD/JPY keeps trading in a sideways range between 124.50 on theupside and 122.50 on the downside. The minutes of the Bank of Japan’s meeting brought no new surprises to the markets. Inflation in Japan remained subdued. This should keep alive expectations for more Bank of Japan’s stimulus later this year and make traders continue buying dollar/yen on the dips.

Demand for the yen as a safe haven is capping the pair. Dollar/yen lacks drivers from the Fed for a rally. The market’s risk sentiment will be the central topic next week with the Greek issue still open and other important events like the end of Iran’s nuclear program talks on June 30. Until Greece gets funds to repay the IMF, USD/JPY will remain under pressure. If Greece defaults, we will likely see a selloff in dollar/yen.

Important support lies at 122.45 (June lows). Below that support lies at 122.00 and 121.45. Resistance is in the 124.40/60 area ahead of 125.00.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5597

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for June 29

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1235, TAKE PROFIT 1.0887 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.1140 (revised)

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.5710, TAKE PROFIT 1.5930 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.5643

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9370, TAKE PROFIT 0.9573, STOP LOSS 0.9278

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7645, TAKE PROFIT 0.7451, STOP LOSS 0.7739

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2285, TAKE PROFIT 1.2473 OBJ (revised), STOP LOSS 1.2275 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7211, TAKE PROFIT 0.6962 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.7079 (revised)

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0450, STOP LOSS 1.0395

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.6970, TAKE PROFIT 0.6675 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.6929 (revised)

Trade ideas:

EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL

USD/JPY: Possibly SELL

EUR/JPY: Possibly SELL

GBP/JPY: Possibly BUY

________________________________________________________

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels
29 June 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.0945/50 (EUR 420m), 1.1100 (666m);

GBP/USD: 1.5800 (GBP 183m);

USD/CAD: 1.2430 (USD 220m);

AUD/USD: 0.7670/75 (240m);

NZD/USD: 0.6840 (NZD 366m), 0.6875 (363m), 0.6890 (180m);

EUR/JPY: 137.00 (225m).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2987

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for June 30

Kira Iukhtenko



The financial market is being dominated by the two major topics on Monday: the “Greek issue” and the Chinese stock market. As a result, the market turned into a risk-off mode. The majority of the global stock markets have spent the day in the red zone, while the US Dollar index fell from 96.60. Watch the consumer confidence index in the US on Tuesday.

EUR/USD opened the day with a large bearish gap at 1.1000, but managed to close it during the day. Euro left the downbeat German CPI (-0.1% in June) with almost no attention. On Tuesday, watch the euro zone’s June CPI. The Greek question will stay on the center stage tomorrow: the indebted country has to pay 1.6 bln euros to the IMF tomorrow. Greece could face a technical default or get an extended aid program. High degree of uncertainty and nervousness persists. A negative scenario would let EUR/USD fix below 1.1050 and pave the ground to the next support at 1.0820. Resistance is now seen at 1.1230.

GBP/USD followed its European counterpart, recovering from 1.5660 to 1.5720. The pair is trading in a short-term sideways channel, we expect it to be broken to the downside. Resistance at 1.5760, 1.5800 and 1.5900. The cable is expected to stay below this area in the coming days. Our near-term bearish target is seen at 1.5550. As for the economic calendar, watch the UK current account, final GDP and the MPC’s Haldane speech on Tuesday.

As for the commodity block currencies, watch the NZD business confidence index and and the RBA Governor Stevens speech tomorrow. Despite the recent China’s National Bank rate cut, the commodity currencies remain at risk on the back of the Greek woes.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5621

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/NZD: buy target - 1.6600
30 June 2015

By: Dima Chernovolov

-EUR/NZD reached buy targets 1.6200 and 1.6400
-Next buy target - 1.6600

EUR/NZD recently corrected down after the price reached both of the buy targets set in our previous forecast for this currency pair - 1.6200 and 1.6400. The price corrected down to the support zone lying between the round support level 1.6000 and the 61.8% Fibonacci Correction of the previous upward impulse from the start of June. The pair subsequently reversed up sharply from this support zone and continues to rise at the moment.

EUR/NZD is likely to rise further inside the active minor impulse wave 3 toward the next buy target 1.6600 (which stopped the earlier impulse (i)).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5626

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/NZD: buy targets – 2.3270 and 2.3550
30 June 2015

By: Dima Chernovolov

-GBP/NZD reversed from support zone
-Next buy targets – 2.3270 and 2.3550

GBP/NZD recently reversed up from the support zone surrounding the support level 2.2600 (former resistance level which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this pair, acting as support now after it was broken by the previous minor impulse wave 3). The upward reversal from this support zone completed the earlier minor correction 4 – starting the active impulse wave 5 (of the 5th intermediate impulse (5) from May).

GBP/NZD is likely to rise further in the active impulse waves 5, (5) and ③ toward the next buy targets 2.3270 and 2.3550.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5627

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for July 1

Greece remains the center topic for all traders. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the deadline for Greece’s bailout runs out at midnight on July 1. Still, the negotiations are expected to continue in the days ahead. EUR/USD is trading in 1.1250/1.1135 area. Support is at 1.1050 and 1.0960. Resistance is at 1.1280, 1.1380 and 1.1465.

USD/JPY met support line since summer 2014. The key support is at 122.00, further support levels lie at 121.85 and 121.55. Strong resistance is at 123.20. Uncertainty about Greece maintains demand for the yen as a safe haven and limits the pair’s advance. In addition, comments from the Bank of Japan’s policymakers have diminished the likelihood of further monetary stimulus in Japan. On Wednesday, July 1, the US will release ADP employment report at 12:15 GMT and ISM manufacturing PMI at 14:00 GMT. The forecasts are quite optimistic.

GBP/USD is sideways in range between 1.5660 and 1.5810. On the downside there are several support levels – 1.5638 and 1.5550. Resistance, however, will come only at 1.5930 (June 18 high). Britain will release manufacturing PMI at 08:30 GMT, and the Bank of England’s Governor Carney will speak at 09:30 GMT.

AUD/USD rose to 0.7725, but met resistance of the 100- and 55-period MAs on H4. Aussie was supported by monetary easing in China. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens showed no new concerns over the Chinese economy on Tuesday. A bunch of Chinese and Australian statistics is due early on Wednesday. The forecasts are rather positive. Further resistance is at 0.7765 and 0.7800. Support is at 0.7650.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5632

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for July 1

Open positions:*

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.5710, TAKE PROFIT 1.5930, STOP LOSS 1.5643

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 137.50, TAKE PROFIT 133.10, STOP LOSS 138.15

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 191.90, TAKE PROFIT 195.88, STOP LOSS 191.15

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.6970, TAKE PROFIT 0.6675, STOP LOSS 0.6886

Trade ideas:

EUR/CAD: BUY at 1.3805, TAKE PROFIT 1.4163, STOP LOSS 1.3730

EUR/USD: Possibly BUY

USD/JPY: Possibly SELL

USD/CHF: Possibly SELL

AUD/USD: Possibly SELL

USD/CAD: Possibly BUY

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

EUR/CHF: Possibly SELL

________________________________________________________

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for July 2

By Kira Iukhtenko



The greenback strengthened after the strong data releases in the United States. According to ADP, June Non-farm payrolls came out at 237K, this is well above the forecasts. As a result, the market sentiment improved ahead of the official labor market data release on Thursday (NFP forecast: 231K).

EUR/USD extended the decline following the US releases.The Greek question remains unclear: technically, the country has entered the default zone yesterday, but negotiations continue.ECB head Mario Draghi will deliver a speech on Thursday.

Technically, EUR/USD holds above the major 1.1050 area. Market hopes for a Greek solution continue supporting the currency. Resistance is now seen at 1.1155. Fix below 1.1050 would open the way for a rapid decline to 1.0820.

GBP/USD slipped to a 2-month low around 1.5600 on Wednesday. A range of factors pressures the cable: Greek problem, weak UK manufacturing PMI and BOE Carney’s dovish comments. Watch the UK Construction PMI tomorrow.

Safe haven assets stay in demand, but USD/JPY surged to 123.00 on the US figures. We are trading in a sideways 122.00 – 124.50 range. There is an open gap left (bullish sign). However, any bad news from Greece will rapidly pull the pair down. In Japan there are no important releases left this week.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5648

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for July 3



US labor market data disappointed those who wanted to price in more of the potential Federal Reserve rate hike. Non-farm payrolls 223K (forecast: +231K). The previous reading was revised down from 280K to 254K. Unemployment rate declined more than expected, but wage growth stagnated that makes the Fed’s policy tightening difficult. On Friday US banks will be closed in observance of the Independence Day. Lower amount of liquidity will make trading more volatile.

Weaker US figures helped to keep EUR/USD above the 100-day MA in the 1.1040 area. Resistance is at 1.1136 and 1.1200. According to the opinion polls, most Greeks prepare to say ‘No’ to the austerity measures on the referendum this Sunday (about 40% compared to 37% for ‘Yes’). Note, though that since Greek banks were closed for emergency holidays the number of those who supports the position of Alexis Tsipras’ government has declined (from 57% for ‘No’ vote). The ECB President Mario Draghi may offer clues on how Greece affects QE as he speaks at 15:10 GMT on Thursday.

GBP/USD has support at 1.5550. Resistance is at 1.5685 and 1.5735. The UK will release services PMI at 08:30 GMT. USD/JPY recoiled down from June resistance line in the 123.70 area and will likely return to 122.50.

AUD/USD once again found support just below 0.7600. Resistance is at 0.7650 and 0.7700. Australia will release retail sales at 01:30 GMT (forecast +0.5% vs. previous reading of 0.0%).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5660

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/AUD: buy target - 1.4760
3 July 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-EUR/AUD reversed from pivotal support level 1.4440
-Next buy target - 1.4760

EUR/AUD continues to rise after the recent upward reversal from the pivotal support level 1.4440 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of June, as you can see below). The support zone near 1.4440 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band, the support trendline of the daily up channel from April and by the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous upward impulse from May.

EUR/AUD is likely to rise further toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.4760 (which stopped the previous intermediate correction (2) in June).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5663

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/GPB: buy target – 0.7200
3 July 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-EUR/GPB reversed from strong support zone
-Next buy target – 0.7200

EUR/GPB recently reversed up sharply from the powerful support zone located between the support levels 0.7060 and 0.7000 (this support also previously reversed the sharp primary impulse wave ① in March, as you can see below). The strength of this support zone is also indicated by the clear bullish divergence that can be seen on the daily Momentum indicator.

Given the strength of the aforementioned support zone, EUR/GPB can be expected to rise further toward the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7200.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5664

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: forecast for July 6-12

Kira Iukhtenko

GBP/USD declined for a second consecutive week in a row. The pair was pressured by the dovish BOE comments – according to the BOE Governor Marc Carney, the rate could stay low for “some time”. What’s more, the Greek factor remains a nuisance for the pound. Any negative developments in Greece over the weekend will send the cable lower on Monday.

GBP/USD is forming a bearish wedge on the weekly chart. It could be broken to the downside in the coming days. Major support lies at 1.5500. We’ll remain bearish below 1.5900.

On the new week, the market dynamics will depend on the Greek story and on the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday. As for the UK releases, watch the annual budget release on Wednesday and the BOE meeting on Thursday.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5666

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: forecast for July 6-12

By Elizabeth Belugina

Greece remains in the limelight. The nation missed a 1.5 billion euro repayment to the IMF on June 30 and went into a technical default. Greek authorities surprised the market by announcing referendum on austerity measures on Sunday, July 5. In case of a “Yes” vote the current government of Alexis Tsipras might resign and the technocratic authorities will be appointed to secure a deal with creditors. If the Greeks say “No” as Tsipras is urging them to, Greece’s financial system will collapse and it will likely have to leave the euro area.

The results of the opinion polls change from day to day. On the one hand, the nation’s population is tired of spending cuts and other tough measures. On the other hand, people are afraid of the turmoil which will start if they reject bailout.

The biggest risk for Greece is the poor state of its banking system. Greek banks stayed shut during the past week and are to reopen on Tuesday, July 7. However, the lenders are running out of money. Greek companies have serious troubles with import.

All in all, the prospects of the euro look grim regardless of the outcome of the Greek vote. The “No” vote will make EUR/USD go down to 1.0800 and probably lower. The “Yes” vote may provoke a spike in the euro to 1.1350/1.1550. Here investors will once again start selling the euro, because political problems won’t end here. Don’t forget that Greece has to pay 3.5 billion euro to the ECB on July 20. This won’t let the relief last long.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5671

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: forecast fot July 6-12

By Elizabeth Belugina

As expected, USD/JPY had a volatile week. Risk sentiment was negative because of the uncertain future of Greece and decline in Chinese stocks. The pair was also moved by the economic data from America: there were good figures on Wednesday, but disappointing labor market figures on Thursday. At the same time, the NFP was still above 200K. As a result, many players will continue expecting the Federal Reserve’s rate hike in September.

Next week Japan’s economic calendar will be rather empty. We can only pick out current account on Wednesday and core machinery orders on Thursday. It’s more important to watch the minutes of the Fed’s June meeting due on Wednesday. The start of the week will be determined by the outcome of the Greek bailout vote: we may see another opening gap. The closer Greece is to leaving the euro area, the stronger will be negative pressure on the US dollar versus the yen.

Technically USD/JPY is forming a wedge-like descending trend which will remain corrective as long as the pair is above the 122.00/121.75/121.55 zone. Here the pair will be supported by the daily Ichimoku Cloud, so the bulls will defend these levels with much force. Further support is at 120.95 and 120.50. On the daily chart the pair formed the bullish “hammer” on Tuesday, but a bearish “shooting star” on Thursday. On the upside resistance is at 123.50/70 and the key one at 124.46/50 which guards the way to June highs at 125.85.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5672

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

US dollar: forecast for July 6-12

Kira Iukhtenko

Mixed labor market data on Thursday capped the US Dollar growth. May Non-farm payrolls came out at 223K – this is solid result. Unemployment fell to 5.3% - this is the lowest level since 2008. However, wage growth and labor participation rate disappointed to the downside.

All in all the employment figures still leave a September rate hike on the table. However, the Fed still needs to see the June data to confirm a positive trend. The Greek drama remains a “dark horse” for the market. Further negative developments in Greece will likely postpone the Fed’s rate hike expectations. According to the CME data, the futures market reflects only a 12% rate hike chance for September and a 49% chance for December.

However, the picture could change dramatically after the FOMC meeting minutes release on Wednesday, July 8. We could get some bullish surprises out of there. You should also watch the US non-manufacturing PMI and trade balance on the new week.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5667