Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 30

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0934, TAKE PROFIT 1.0613, STOP LOSS 1.0951

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.35, TAKE PROFIT 120.30, STOP LOSS 118.88

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.4835, TAKE PROFIT 1.5155, STOP LOSS 1.4750

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9585, TAKE PROFIT 0.9812, STOP LOSS 0.9487

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2480, TAKE PROFIT 1.2724, STOP LOSS 1.2465

EUR/GBP: Hold LONG at 0.7305, TAKE PROFIT 0.7459, STOP LOSS 0.7255

GBP/JPY: Hold SHORT at 179.00, TAKE PROFIT 175.50, STOP LOSS 178.45

Trade signals:

EUR/JPY: SELL at 130.67, TAKE PROFIT 128.37, STOP LOSS 131.70

NZD/USD: Possibly SELL

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

AUD/USD: Possibly BUY

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4336

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Large banks: positioning on EUR crosses
30 March 2015

EUR/USD

Morgan Stanley holds SHORT from 1.0920, TAKE PROFIT 1.0500, STOP LOSS 1.1060 (entered on March 27)

Danske Bank holds SHORT from 1.0934, TAKE PROFIT 1.0613, STOP LOSS 1.0951 (entered on March 27)

BNP Paribas holds SHORT from 1.0990, TAKE PROFIT 1.0400, STOP LOSS 1.1165 (entered on March 25)

Credit Suisse holds a SELL LIMIT order from 1.1098, TAKE PROFIT 1.1050, STOP LOSS 1.1255 (entered on March 24)

EUR/GBP

Credit Suisse holds SHORT from 0.7350, TAKE PROFIT 0.7015, STOP LOSS 0.7440 (entered on March 24)

EUR/JPY

Credit Suisse holds SHORT from 130.85, TAKE PROFIT 126.95, STOP LOSS 131.88 (entered on March 23)

EUR/CHF

Danske Bank holds LONG from 1.0469, TAKE PROFIT 1.100, STOP LOSS 1.0250 (entered on March 27)

Societe Generale holds SHORT from 1.0580, TAKE PROFIT 0.9500, STOP LOSS 1.1100 (entered on Feb. 6)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4334

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for Mar. 31

By Kira Iukhtenko



The US dollar is gaining ground at the beginning of the week, inspired by Yellen’s speech on Friday. The major event of the week – NFP – comes on Friday. In the coming days we’ll see a bunch of other important figures: Chicago PMI and consumer confidence data on Tuesday and manufacturing PMI and ADP NFP on Wednesday. All the forecasts are upbeat.

EUR/USD dipped below 1.0900 despite upbeat euro zone’s figures. Markets await news from Greece to come this week – the country is running out of cash again. European creditors have to approve the new funding tranche. Tomorrow watch euro zone’s preliminary CPI for March and the unemployment data. Break below 1.0800 would open the way down to 1.0600. Quick progress in a Greek deal could open the way to the 1.1000 resistance, but growth in EUR/USD is unlikely to be resilient.

GBP/USD pulled below 1.4800. Daily close below would be a strong selling signal. Next support - 1.4770 and 1.4700. We remain bearish below 1.5000. Tomorrow watch the current account data and the final Q4 GDP.

USD/JPY pushed higher, testing the 120 yen mark. The 55-day MA acted as a support (119.10). Recovery above 120.40 would be a good buying signal.

Commodity currencies also remain under pressure. AUD/USD extended the decline from 0.7940, hitting 0.7650 on Monday. Fix below 0.7640 would pave the ground to 0.7550 (recent lows).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4357

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels
31 March 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.0700 (EUR 323m) 1.0800 (EUR 495m) 1.1000 (EUR 504m);

USD/JPY: 118.00 (USD 1bln) 120.00 (USD 745m) 120.50 (USD 330m);

USD/CHF: 0.9540 (USD 620m) 0.9600 (USD 764m) 0.9800 (USD 624m);

USD/CAD: 1.2400 (USD 250m);

NZD/USD: 0.7550 (NZD 1.36bln);

EUR/CHF: 1.0500 (EUR 307m);

EUR/GBP: 0.7275/80 (EUR 785m);

EUR/JPY: 128.50 (EUR 400m).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2522

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 31

Open positions:*

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.35, TAKE PROFIT 120.62, STOP LOSS 119.81 (revised)

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.4835, TAKE PROFIT 1.5155, STOP LOSS 1.4750

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9585, TAKE PROFIT 0.9812, STOP LOSS 0.9515 (revised)

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2480, TAKE PROFIT 1.2724, STOP LOSS 1.2580 (revised)

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0850, TAKE PROFIT 1.0613, STOP LOSS 1.0951

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0510, TAKE PROFIT 1.0355, STOP LOSS 1.0582

GBP/JPY: Hold SHORT at 179.00, TAKE PROFIT 175.50, STOP LOSS 178.45

EUR/GBP: Hold LONG at 0.7305, TAKE PROFIT 0.7459, STOP LOSS 0.7255

Trade ideas:

EUR/JPY: SELL at 130.30, TAKE PROFIT 127.19, STOP LOSS 131.55

AUD/USD: SELL at 0.7696, TAKE PROFIT 0.7526, STOP LOSS 0.7781

EUR/CAD: BUY at 1.3710, TAKE PROFIT 1.4090, STOP LOSS 1.3660

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.7540, TAKE PROFIT 0.7373, STOP LOSS 0.7615

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[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for April 1

By Elizaveta Belugina

EUR/USD slid below the Ichimoku Cloud and the 100-period MA on H4. The pair has found some support above 1.0700, but a decline to 1.0690 and 1.0600 looks very likely. The close below 1.0755 (50% Fibo retracement of the March correction up) will be a negative signal. Further resistance is at 1.0800 and 1.0845 with the key level at 1.0950. On Tuesday there were some positive data from the euro area, especially Germany. However, we stick to the approach of selling the euro on its attempts to recover. On Wednesday Greek and other euro zone officials from the Euro Working Group are supposed to meet to discuss the proposed reforms. As it seems that the parties are still far from the compromise, there may be some negative impact on the euro. Later in the day the US will release ADP employment report (12:15 GMT) & ISM manufacturing PMI (14:00 GMT). EUR/JPY also looks weak.

GBP/USD was under negative pressure, but found some support at 1.4750 as the UK Q4 GDP was revised a bit to the upside. Pound rose versus euro, and that helped. But EUR/GBP found some support at 0.7240. There are some indications that the pair is trying to base, but the pound looks shaky, the bulls lack strength, and we can’t rule out the decline to 1.4700. A rather strong downtrend resistance is at 1.4900. The dynamics in the coming sessions will be data-dependant. Britain will release manufacturing PMI (08:30 GMT). Also note that British pound remain under pressure ahead of the UK parliamentary election on May 7 and amid the polls showing that no party will be able to form the government on its own.

USD/JPY had an active rebound on Monday, but found resistance in the 120.00/50 area. Japan will release Tankan manufacturing & services indexes early on Wednesday, and the expectations are quite positive. The pair may spend time in the 120.50/119.00 range. Support is at 119.55. The next resistance is at 120.80 and 121.20.

On Wednesday the Asian session will be rich with economic data. Don’t miss Australian building permits (00:30 GMT) & China’s manufacturing PMI (01:00 GMT). AUD/USD slid to 0.7590. Australian currency continues to look quite weak targeting 0.7500 and lower. Resistance has moved from 0.7760 to 0.7700. Traders continue to expect the RBA to cut the interest rate soon, and this clearly undermines Aussie.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4388

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels
1 April 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.0750 (EUR 323m), 1.0800 (EUR 2.1bln);

GBP/USD: 1.4900 (GBP 226m);

USD/JPY: 119.50/55 (USD 617m);

USD/CHF: 0.9600 (EUR 350m);

USD/CAD: 1.2680 (USD 256m), 1.2700 (USD 220m), 1.2800 (200m), 1.2900 (USD 300m);

AUD/USD: 0.7640/50 (AUD 1bln), 0.7600/05 (AUD 360m);

NZD/USD: 0.7530/35 (NZD 900m);

EUR/GBP: 0.7200 (255m), 0.7270 (EUR 706m);

AUD/JPY: 91.00 (AUD 410m).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2529

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/JPY: sell targets - 90.00 and 87.50
1 April 2015

- AUD/JPY falls inside monthly impulse ③
- Next sell targets - 90.00 and 87.50

AUD/JPY continues to fall after the recent sharp downward reversal from the major multi-year resistance level 103.00 (which also previously reversed the pair in June of 2008 and in April of 2013, as you can see from the monthly AUD/JPY chart below). The resistance zone near 103.00 was further strengthened by the upper monthly Bollinger Band. The downward reversal from the aforementioned resistance level 103.00 created the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern – bearish Engulfing – thereby completing the previous monthly ABC correction ② from the middle of 2013.

AUD/JPY is likely to fall further in the active monthly downward impulse wave ③ toward the next sell targets 90.00 and 87.50.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4395

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/CHF: sell targets - 1.0400 and 1.0200
1 April 2015

• EUR/CHF falls inside intermediate ABC correction
• Next sell targets - 1.0400 and 1.0200

EUR/CHF has been falling in the last few weeks – inside the C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (B), which started in February – when the pair reversed down from the combined resistance zone lying between the following resistance levels: daily upper Bollinger Band, the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp intermediate downward impulse wave (5) from the middle of January and the resistance level 1.0800. The currently active C-wave recently broke the support level 1.0600 (which stopped the previous A-wave).

EUR/CHF is likely to continue to fall toward the next sell targets – 1.0400 and 1.0200. Sell stop-loss can be placed above the recently broken former support level 1.0600.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4397

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 1

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0850, TAKE PROFIT 1.0613, STOP LOSS 1.0901 (revised)

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 120.08, TAKE PROFIT 118.30, STOP LOSS 120.70

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.4835, TAKE PROFIT 1.5155, STOP LOSS 1.4750

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9585, TAKE PROFIT 0.9906, STOP LOSS 0.9604 (revised)

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0510, TAKE PROFIT 1.0318, STOP LOSS 1.0582 (revised)

GBP/JPY: Hold SHORT at 179.00 TAKE PROFIT 175.50, STOP LOSS 178.45

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7480 TAKE PROFIT 0.7276, STOP LOSS 0.7550

Trade ideas:

EUR/JPY: SELL at 129.50, TAKE PROFIT 127.19, STOP LOSS 130.45

AUD/USD: SELL at 0.7696, TAKE PROFIT 0.7526, STOP LOSS 0.7781

USD/CAD: BUY at 1.2670, TAKE PROFIT 1.2835, STOP LOSS 1.2590 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL

________________________________________________________

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for Apr. 2

The US dollar slowed its ascent on Wednesday following the release of the lower-than-expected employment indicator by ADP. The report showed the US private sector created only 189K new jobs in March. Markets are now concerned that the official NFP on Friday will also reflect the labor market slack (forecast: down from +295K to 247K). ISM Manufacturing PMI also surprised to the downside. You should also watch the US trade balance and weekly unemployment claims on Thursday to get more signals about the US economy. US dollar is expected to stay out of demand at least till the end of the week.

The other currency pairs are seen tracking the USD sentiment these days. EUR/USD recovered from 1.0720 on Wednesday, but the 1.0800 area is a strong resistance for now. Next resistance lies at 1.1000/50, while support - at 1.0600. The ECB will release its monetary policy minutes tomorrow.

GBP/USD remains under pressure below the 1.4800 mark. We remain bearish below 1.5000. Next bearish targets are 1.4740 and 1.4630. Watch the UK Construction PMI on Thursday.

AUD/USD slowed the decline on Wednesday, finding daily support around 0.7580. China’s manufacturing PMI surprised to the upside on Wednesday. Australia itself is scheduled to release its trade balance on Thursday - trade gap is expected to have widened in February.

USD/JPY pulled down from the 120.40 area on the overall USD weakness. Buyers’ indecisiveness reopens the way towards the 118 yen support.



More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4409

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 2

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0850, TAKE PROFIT 1.0613, STOP LOSS 1.0901 (revised)

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 120.08, TAKE PROFIT 118.30, STOP LOSS 120.41

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 129.25, TAKE PROFIT 127.19, STOP LOSS 130.26

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9585, TAKE PROFIT 0.9906, STOP LOSS 0.9604 (revised)

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0510, TAKE PROFIT 1.0318, STOP LOSS 1.0492 (revised)

GBP/JPY: Hold SHORT at 177.20, TAKE PROFIT 174.70, STOP LOSS 178.50

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7480, TAKE PROFIT 0.7276, STOP LOSS 0.7550

Trade ideas:

AUD/USD: SELL at 0.7740, TAKE PROFIT 0.7451, STOP LOSS 0.7810

GBP/USD: Possibly SELL

USD/CAD: Possibly BUY

EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

________________________________________________________

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for April 3

By Elizaveta Belugina

The markets are awaiting the long Easter weekend and the release of the US NFP on Friday. Taking into account uncertainty and low liquidity trading will be even more volatile than it usually is on NFP Fridays. Before the release (12:30 GMT) US dollar is expected to consolidate.

On Wednesday American ADP employment report disappointed dollar bulls, but on Thursday the US released good unemployment claims data (lower than expected) and trade balance figures. All in all, the recent US data releases give some reasons to worry about the US economy. A reading above 200K and gain in average hourly earnings should be enough for the market to expect a rate hike in June-September.

EUR/USD has found support above 1.0700 this week and returned above 1.0850 on the back of some more positive data from the euro area. Support is at 1.0800, 1.0750 and 1.0700.

GBP/USD was affected by weak UK construction PMI which fell from 60.1 to 57.8. Resistance at 1.4900 still holds. Next resistance is at 1.4950. Taking into account Britain’s political uncertainty, even in case weaker NFP pound’s recovery will be limited by 1.5000. On the downside potential target will be at 1.4630.

USD/JPY was rejected from above 120.00 in the first half of the week and spent Thursday below this mark. This makes the pair vulnerable to test support is 119.28, 118.85 and 118.30. Resistance is at 120.30, 120.50 and 120.80.

AUD/USD is weak. Resistance at 0.7660 has become stronger with the spike to this level on Wednesday followed by a decline to the 0.7530 area. Australian trade deficit widened and 17 out of the 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the RBA to cut the benchmark rate on Tuesday.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4437

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels
3 April 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.0650 (EUR 635m), 1.0680 (EUR 408m), 1.0800 (EUR 262m), 1.0850 (EUR 402m), 1.0950 (EUR 401m), 1.1075 (EUR 3.4bln);

USD/JPY: 119.65 (USD 2bln), 120.00 (USD 1.3bln), 120.20 (USD 700m), 120.50 (USD 501m), 122.00 (USD 675m), 122.25 (USD 550m);

USD/CAD: 1.2350 (USD 556m);

AUD/USD: 0.7685 (AUD 372m).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2548

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

NFP: what do big banks expect?
3 April 2015

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) figures at 12:30 GMT. According to the consensus forecast, American economy added 246K jobs in March after 295K in February.

Here is the more detailed account of what the major banks think:

- Societe Generale +272K
- Bank of America/Merrill Lynch +270K
- Credit Agricole +260K
- UBS +260K
- BNP +260K
- Barclays +250K
- BMO +250K
- JP Morgan +250K
- Credit Suisse +240K
- RBS +238K
- RBC +225K
- TD Securities +221K
- Goldman Sachs +220K
- CIBC +200K
- Morgan Stanley +195K

Societe Generale is the most optimistic one, while Morgan Stanley – the most pessimistic.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4442

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

NZD/JPY: buy targets - 91.00 and 92.00
3 April 2015

-NZD/JPY reversed from support zone
-Next buy targets - 91.00 and 92.00


NZD/JPY recently corrected down sharply – after the price reached the buy target 91.00, which was set in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The subsequent downward correction from 91.00 recently stopped at the support zone located between the support level 89.00 and the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from the start of February. The upward reversal from this support zone created the powerful Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern – Bullish Engulfing (highlighted on the daily NZD/JPY chart below).

Having just completed the minor correction (ii) - NZD/JPY can be expected to rise further inside the next minor impulse (iii) toward the next buy targets 91.00 and 92.00.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4446

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/NZD: sell target – 1.0000
3 April 2015

• AUD/NZD reached sell target 1.0300
• Next sell target – 1.0000

AUD/NZD continues to fall after recently breaking down below the support level 1.0300, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level intensified the bearish pressure on this currency pair – accelerating the currently active minor impulse wave (iii) which belongs to the 3rd minor impulse 3 from the end of January (as you can see from the daily AUD/NZD chart below).

The pair is currently approaching the support level 1.0100. With the daily Momentum indicator moving close to the yearly lows, AUD/NZD can be expected to fall further toward the next sell target at the parity – provided that the pair closes this week below the support level 1.0100.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4444

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD: weekly outlook
3 April 2015

US labor market figures on Friday shattered all the hopes for a strong dollar. Non-Farm Payrolls rose by 126K in March (forecast: +246K). What’s more, the previous reading was revised down from +295K to +264K. Data reduces expectations for a Fed’s rate hike in June and opens the way for a USD selloff.

The FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday will be at the central stage next week. We’ll get the details of the controversial March 18 meeting. Meanwhile, the largest US aluminum producer Alcoa will start the first-quarter earnings season, reporting on Wednesday. You should also watch the US non-manufacturing PMI on Monday.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4455

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: forecast for the new week
3 April 2015

By Kira Iukhtenko

Sterling spent the week trading mixed versus the greenback, forming a range of “doji” candlesticks on the daily chart. We remain clearly bearish in the medium-term as long as the cable holds below the major 1.5000 resistance. Next bearish targets are 1.4740, 1.4680 and 1.4630.

Next week’s highlights will be the Bank of England’s monetary policy decision as well as Services PMI and manufacturing production figures. The UK central bank is widely expected to leave rates unchanged in on Wednesday. BOE became cautious amid low inflation and strong currency. According to the median Reuters forecast, the first rate hike will come in early 2016 and won’t exceed 25 bps. That means that the US Fed will likely be the first central bank to hike rates.

British pound’s prospects are clouded by political uncertainty. The upcoming UK general election on May 7 are not a sure thing: the Conservative party and the opposition Labor party are neck-and-neck. Threat of a “hung” government is a bearish factor for GBP: if Conservatives fail to win a majority, they’ll be trying to form a coalition.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4449

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/AUD: buy targets – 1.9800 and 2.000
6 April 2015

-GBP/AUD rises inside minor impulse 3
-Next buy targets – 1.9800 and 2.000

GBP/AUD recently reversed up sharply from the combined support zone lying at the intersection of the support level 1.9000 (which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair), the support trendline of the wide daily up channel from last September, 61.8% Fibonacci Correction of the previous impulse 1 and the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support area completed the previous minor correction 2. The next upward impulse 3 recently broke the resistance levels 1.9200 and 1.9400.

GBP/AUD is likely to rise further toward the next buy targets at 1.9800 and 2.000. Buy stop-loss can be placed below the recently broken former-resistance level 1.9400.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4469