Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Nov. 25: MARKET REVIEW

USD/JPY: the pair is consolidating in the 117.50/118.50. The Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda declined to comment on whether recent yen declines were too rapid.

EUR/USD: consolidates in the narrow 1.2420/20 range. No releases on the euro zone’s agenda scheduled for today.

GBP/USD: the pair once again returned below 1.5700. Inflation report hearings will start in Britain at 10:00 GMT.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD extend the downside after the overnight drop.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2002

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Barclays Capital: fresh Forex forecasts

Here are the most recent currency forecasts by Barclays Capital.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2938

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Nov. 25

Open positions*:

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.2435, Take Profit 1.2289, Stop Loss 1.2507

USD/JPY: Hold LONG from 117.70, Take Profit 119.84, Stop Loss117.03

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.5725, Take Profit 1.5522, Stop Loss 1.5745

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT from 1.2080, Take Profit 1.2006, Stop Loss 1.2042

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 185.50, Take Profit 188.50, Stop Loss 184.45

Trade ideas:

USD/CHF: BUY at 0.9650, Take Profit 0.9818, Stop Loss 0.9605

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7955, Take Profit 0.7799, Stop Loss 0.8010

AUD/USD: SELL at 0.8650, Take Profit 0.8450, Stop Loss 0.8750

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.7880, Take Profit 0.7660, Stop Loss 0.7980

EUR/JPY: Look to BUY lower

USD/CAD: Look to BUY lower

EUR/CAD: Look to SELL

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[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Nov. 26

The second estimate of the US GDP exceeded expectations: US economy added 3.9% vs. 3.3% expected. However, the currency market wasn’t impressed: during the American session the greenback is trading in the negative territory versus its major peers. In addition, CB consumer confidence index has declined. Tomorrow the US will release a bunch of important economic data. Economists at Citi and BNP Paribas, for example, are skeptical about today’s release and look forward to the information on the personal spending due tomorrow.

EUR/USD recovered to 1.2480 on the news from the US. If the pair fixes above 1.2500, this will open the way to 1.2550 – here lies the trend resistance. There are no important releases in the euro area tomorrow, just German import prices (a decline’s expected).

GBP/USD got support at 1.5650 and returned above 1.5700. Resistance is at 1.5740 – the pair may be forming a rising triangle and a break above this level will lead to an increase to 1.5788 and 1.5850. Support is at 1.5650 and 1.5595. There was nothing interesting at the inflation report hearings. On Wednesday at 09:30 GMT Britain will release the second Q3 GDP estimate and business investment data.

USD/JPY is still trading below Nov. 20 minimum at 118.97. The uptrend has slowed down. On the hourly chart we can see a consolidation in the triangle. Support is located at 117.35 and 116.10.

AUD/USD breached down support at 0.8580 (now it’s a resistance) and fell to a 4-year low at 0.8513. RBA Deputy Governor Lowe said that Aussie will likely keep falling following the commodity prices. Support is at 0.8490 and 0.8450.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2943

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Nov. 26: MARKET REVIEW

EUR/USD: consolidates in the 1.2465/85 range after 2 days of recovery. Watch the German Import Prices and 10-year bond auction results later in the day.

AUD/USD: recovered some ground after falling to 0.8510 on Tuesday (lowest since July 2010). Comments from the RBA Deputy Governor Philip Lowe contributed to the selling. Australia Construction Work Done dropped more than expected in Q3.

United States are scheduled to release a bunch of important data in the US session (13:30 -17:00 GMT).

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2011

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD / JPY: the analysis of Murray levels

Leonid Varfolomeev

D1.The pair has reached the level of 06.08 (118.75), and has not been able to overcome it yet, that implies a possible scenario of the retracement to CTD1 and the nearest level of 5/8 (115.63). Against the background tt is still bullish CTW1 with CTD1, a global fall below 8.5 should not be expected.

H 4. There is no one candle that closed above the key level of 08.08 (118.75). So if there is a clearance up of this level now, then the growth to the level of +2/8 (121.85) should be expected. As for a rebound from the current positions in the area of 6/8 (115.63), it is possible in the case of tangible break down CTH4 (at least a third of the width of the levels).

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2944

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/CHF: trade idea

Tatiana Norkina, an analyst at FBS

Bulls have not been able to get into the positive region second day in a row - the upper limit of the four-hour Ichimoku cloud prevents the breakdown. Coupled with the overbought market, this fact may work in favor of short-term bears, which could adjust the pair, at least in the area of 1.5080.

Oscillators are also going to decline. The MACD histogram has been reducing during the last session. The same result is for RSI that is gradually decreasing.

Also one should pay attention to the daily timeframe. It is possible that a reversal pattern "hanged" is being formed on the candlestick chart. With due acknowledgment during today's session the bearish trend will long remain in force.



Technical levels: support - 1.5080, 1.5110; resistance - 1.5190.

Trading recommendations:

1. Sell - 1.5170; SL - 1.5200; TP1 - 1.5110; TP2 - 1.5080.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2945

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: sales ahead

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

Over the past two days, the bulls have managed to restore the currency pair rate to the 1.2480 level. It is here that the resistance is formed by the Kijun-sen line in the four-hour timeframe. Corrective growth was expected, since the Chinkou line prompted a strong currency pair oversoldness due to the Friday's collapse.

Obviously, it makes sense to expect a downward rebound from 1.2480 in the near future as the cloud is still bearish.

At the same time, we will observe the pair around the 1.2440 level, as the formation of a golden cross by the Tenkan and Kijun lines is possible here. In this case, the bulls can get active, setting the goal at the lower cloud border.

Oscillators have supported the pair growth. MACD has crossed the zero mark and got into the positive area.

Technical levels: support – 1.2440; resistance – 1.2480, 1.2540.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.2480; SL — 1.2500; TP1 — 1.2440; TP2 — 1.2390.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2946

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: growth possible

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

After the bears showed complete indifference to the 1.5600 figure, the bulls have set for work, not ceasing to attack the 57th figure. Yesterday, this level was broken through and at the moment we might be witnessing consolidation above it. Such turn of events is obvious to lead to another round of short-term bying and to the corrective recovery of the pair into the four-hour cloud. Some of the levels, towards which growth is possible, were mentioned in our previous review – 1.5760 and 1.5875.

Technical levels: support – 1.5680, 1.5700; resistance – 1.5760, 1.5875.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.5710; SL — 1.5690; TP1 — 1.5760; TP2 — 1.5875.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2947

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Nov. 27



EUR/USD has recovered some ground this week, but remains capped by the 1.2500 mark in the late European session. According to our forecast, a break above this hurdle could open the way to the next bullish targets at 1.2550 and 1.2600. On Thursday euro zone is scheduled to release a bunch of data with the November German Preliminary CPI as a headliner. The market sentiment towards the euro will strongly depend on the news.

GBP/USD has breached the ascending triangle to the upside. The pair’s correcting up as the market seems tired of the USD longs. A fix above 1.5790 will open the way to 1.5875. Pound is now at the upper border of the short-term rising channel. If resistance holds, look at support at 1.5670 and 1.5625.

USD/JPY is consolidating in the 117.70 area. The bias is to the downside, although the pair moves very slowly. Support is at 117.35 and 117.00 ahead of 116.15.

AUD/USD is testing the 0.8500 mark to the downside on Wednesday, testing the levels unseen since 2010. We see from the monthly chart, that in November the price has fallen below the lower border of the Ichimoku (0.8540). Aussie remains under pressure because of the RBA, China and falling commodity prices. Daily close below the 0.8500 mark would be a strong selling signal. On Thursday Australia is scheduled to release Q3 private capital expenditure data (forecast – negative).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2948

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Nov. 27: MARKET REVIEW

Risk sentiment: Generally positive. Asian stocks rose to 1-month high as investors bet that more central bank stimulus in China and Europe would have the positive impact on the global economy. US financial markets are shut for Thanksgiving Day. Oil prices tumbled to a 4-year low as hopes for output cuts by OPEC went away. A Gulf Arab OPEC delegate told Reuters that the organization members have reached a consensus not to cut oil production today.

US dollar: American currency declined as weaker US economic data reduced demand for it pushing Treasury yields lower.

EUR/USD: The pair’s trading just above 1.2500. The ECB’s President Mario Draghi will speak today at 11:30 a.m. GMT.

GBP/USD: The pair’s consolidating just under 1.5800.

USD/JPY: The pair’s declined to 117.25 as Japanese stock market went down because of the political uncertainty in Japan.

AUD/USD: The pair rose to 0.8600 on better-than expected data from Australia. The country's new capital expenditure rose by 0.2% in Q3, although a decline of 1.7% was expected.

NZD/USD: The pair rose above 0.7900.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2018

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Nov. 27

Open positions*:

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 117.70, Take Profit 119.84, Stop Loss 117.03

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.8566, Take Profit 0.8315, Stop Loss 0.8624

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 147.00, Take Profit 148.43, Stop Loss 146.28

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.2080, Take Profit 1.2006, Stop Loss 1.2042

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.4025, Take Profit 1.3790, Stop Loss 1.4125

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 185.50, Take Profit 188.50; STOP AT 184.45

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7840, Stop Loss 0.7915

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: Look to SELL at 1.2560/70

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5740, Take Profit 1.5886, Stop Loss 1.5645

USD/CHF: BUY at 0.9575, Take Profit 0.9741, Stop Loss 0.9525

USD/CAD: BUY at 1.1200, Take Profit 1.1403, Stop Loss 1.1145

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7955, Take Profit 0.7799, Stop Loss 0.8010

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[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for Nov. 28

On Thursday the market attention was glued to the OPEC meeting in Vienna. As many expected, oil cartel members left the output quotas unchanged. As a result, oil prices decline resumed. USD/CAD jumped back above the 1.1300 mark on the news. Note that the US markets have been closed on Thursday (Thanksgiving Day celebration), so the OPEC’s decision will strongly impact the market on Friday.

EUR/USD consolidated below the 1.2500 figure on Thursday. The single currency could gain some ground on German retail sales data and French consumer spending early on Friday, but be ready for new losses on euro zone’s CPI at 10:00 GMT. Strong resistance – 1.2550 и 1.2600, while support lies at 1.2440 and 1.2350.

AUD/USD attempted to recover on Thursday, but failed to overcome the 0.8600 resistance. Next levels below the price– 0.8520/00 and 0.8470.

GBP/USD was rejected by resistance in the 1.5800 area and slid below the 100-period MA on H4. The pair returned to the middle of the rising channel. Support is at the current levels of 1.5730 and at 1.5680/70. A break below will confirm a flag and make the pair to renew lows. Further resistance is at 1.5875.

USD/JPY found support in the 117.20 area. Resistance is at 118.20 and 118.55. Further support is at 116.10. The market players will watch Japan’s inflation data due during Friday’s Asian session – a bit lower figures are expected – such outcome will help USD.



More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2956

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Nov. 28: MARKET OVERVIEW

EUR/USD: remains under pressure. Support seen at 1.2440. Watch German Retail Sales (7:00 GMT), French Consumer Spending (7:45 GMT) and euro zone’s CPI (10:00 GMT).

GBP/USD: The pair’s trading just above 1.5700.

USD/JPY: The pair rose above 118.00. Yen weakened as falling oil prices softened Japan’s inflation outlook increasing expectations of more policy easing by the Bank of Japan. The nation’s core consumer inflation excluding the effects of April's tax hike was estimated at 0.9%, less than halfway to meeting the BOJ's 2% target.

AUD/USD: selling pressure on the Aussie resumed. The pair is retesting the0.8480 support (recent lows).

NZD/USD: bearish pressure prevails, but kiwi has recovered some pips on the upbeat ANZ Business Confidence data.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2026

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.2450 (EUR 401m), 1.2475/80 (EUR 923m), 1.2500/15 (EUR 930m), 1.2530-50 (EUR 700m);

USD/JPY: 116.50 (USD 2.5bln), 116.60 (USD 400m), 117.10 (USD 530m), 117.75/80 (USD 1.2bln);

USD/CAD: 1.1170/90 (USD 400m), 1.1250 (USD 301m);

AUD/USD: 0.8500 (AUD 750m), 0.8535 (AUD 500m), 0.8650 (AUD 554m);

EUR/JPY: 145.80.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2027

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Dec. 1: MARKET REVIEW

EUR/USD: The pair is trading in the 1.2450 area.

GBP/USD: The pair tested 1.5585. Britain will release manufacturing PMI at 09:30 GMT.

USD/JPY: The pair tested levels above 119.00 rising to the highest levels since July 2007. Yen is declining as the falling oil prices strengthen the fears of deflation in Japan.

AUD/USD: The pair opened with a gap down and tested 0.8417. Official manufacturing PMI indicated slowing growth in China.

NZD/USD: The pair gapped down and tested 0.7776.

EUR/CHF: The pair opened with a gap up at 1.2035 + Gold opened with a gap down and tested 1142.15 before recovering to 1151.85: Swiss voters reject boost to gold reserves.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2035

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.2400 (EUR 2bln), 1.2450 (EUR 1bln), 1.2475 (EUR 1bln), 1.2550 (EUR 642m);

GBP/USD: 1.5800 (GBP 791m);

USD/JPY: 117.75 (USD 300m), 118.75;

USD/CHF: 0.9500 (USD 604m), 0.9525, 0.9650 (USD 445m);

AUD/USD: 0.8500 (AUD 390m), 0.8550 (AUD 1bln);

NZD/USD: 0.8000 (NZD 1.4bln);

EUR/GBP: 0.7750, 0.7900;

EUR/JPY: 148.00.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2036

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for Dec. 2

EUR/USD kept on consolidating below the 1.2500 mark on Monday, paying almost no attention to the mixed euro zone's PMI indices. On Tuesday watch Spain's unemployment change data and November PPI. ECB meeting on Thursday is in the central stage this week: many expect the central bank to announce QE. Note that the bearish trend has slowed in the recent weeks, giving a chance for a “diamond” formation on the daily chart. Id ECB disappoints with easing, a strong bullish correction will likely follow.

For a short time USD/JPY rose above 119.00. However, daily oscillators declined. Support is at 117.90 and 117.20. Only the decline below the latter will cause a fall to 116.10. The talk about Japanese elections may intensify on Tuesday with the official start of the election campaign.

GBP/USD retraced Friday’s decline returning above 1.5700. There’s scope for pound to rise to 1.5850/80 where the bulls will find resistance. Britain will release construction PMI at 09:30 GMT. Support is at 1.5690 ahead of 1.5590.

AUD/USD dipped to a new 4-year low on Monday on the Swiss gold referendum results, but has recovered towards 0.8500 later in the day. The pair is now forming a bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart. RBA will announce its policy decision on Tuesday. No changes expected, but the overall sentiment could become more bearish. In this case Aussie could come under a more intense selling pressure. Next strong support lies at 0.8370. On Tuesday you should also pay attention to the Australia's current account and building premits.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2975

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for Dec. 3

EUR/USD remains in the 1.2400/2500 range ahead of the major risk event of the week – ECB meeting on Thursday. Meanwhile, you should also pay attention to the Services PMIs (08:15 - 10:00 GMT). What’s more euro zone is scheduled to release retail sales data at 10:00 GMT, the forecast is upbeat.

GBP/USD met resistance at the 20-day MA and returned below 1.5700 as British construction PMI disappointed. Pound remains range bound and will likely return to 1.5630/00 and 1.5585 ahead of the Bank of England’s meeting on Thursday. On Wednesday the UK will release services PMI (09:30 GMT), a slight increase in expected. Resistance is at 1.5830.

USD/JPY was once again supported by the H4 Ichimoku Cloud which is, however, getting thinner and thinner. Positive expectations about the US data are now the main bullish factor for the pair. Resistance is at 119.25, 119.85 and 120.00. Support is at 118.20 and 117.70.

AUD/USD has once again attempted to push higher, but returned back below 0.8550 later in the day. Early on Wednesday Australia is scheduled to release Q3 GDP (consensus: +0.7%, Q2 - +0.5%). However, the overall tone could be easily spoiled by Chinese November Services PMI that follows. Official October reading came at 53.8, while the HSBC estimate was lower (52.9). The topic of Chinese economic slowdown remains important for the market, so the Aussie could come under more selling pressure on the news.



More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2984

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Dec. 3: MARKET OVERVIEW

USD: supported by the rise in the US bond yields. New York Fed President William Dudley and Vice Chair Stanley Fischer made mostly upbeat comments on the outlook for the US economy. American stock session was very positive.

Japanese Nikkei: added 0.8% after touching 7-year high earlier.

USD/JPY: the advance paused at the new 7-year high at 119.40.

Oil: Brent crude rose by 0.9% to $71.16. US crude rose more than 1% to $67.67 a barrel after data showed that US crude stocks fell last week.

EUR/USD: consolidates in the negative zone around 1.2370 following the sharp selloff on Tuesday. Watch the euro zone’s PMI indices and retail sales data later in the day.

AUD/USD: set a new 4.5-year low at 0.8380 after the downbeat Q3 GDP surprise (+0.3% versus +0.7% expected and +0.5% in Q2). China Services PMI indices came out slightly better than expected.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2056