Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "PENNANT" PATTERN
09:35 23.01.2018

The main trend is still bullish, but there's an opportunity to have a bearish correction because of the last "Triple Top" pattern. So, we should keep an eye on the nearest support area at 1.2194 - 1.2164 as the next intraday target.

There's a "Pennant" pattern, so the pair is likely going to test the closest support at 1.2164 in the coming hours. If a pullback from this level happens little later on, there'll be a moment to have another bullish price movement.

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[riki143]

GBP/USD Daily Analytics
09:39 23.01.2018

Bulls faced with resistance at 1.4011, so there's a "V-Top" pattern. The main intraday target is the nearest support at 1.3895 - 1.3834. This area could be a departure point for an upward price movement in the direction of the next resistance at 1.3944 - 1.4011.

There's a developing bearish correction, so the market is likely going to test the closest support at 1.3834 during the day. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this level is on the table, bulls will probably try to achieve another resistance at 1.4011 - 1.4089.

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[riki143]

THE STABILITY OF THE BOJ POLICY
10:42 23.01.2018
Today is the day of the Bank of Japan meeting. The BOJ announced its Outlook Report. The key point is that the Bank kept its monetary policy unchanged. This meeting showed almost solid consent - eight to one member voted to leave interest rates at the same level of -0.1%. At the same time, the members claimed that quantitative and qualitative monetary easing (QQE) with yield curve control (YCC) program will be continued. The Bank is promising to buy Japanese government bonds so that 10-year JGB yields will remain around 0%. The Bank is going to “continue expanding the monetary base until the year-on-year rate of increase in the observed CPI exceeds 2% and stays above the target in a stable manner”.

So the BOJ claims that it is going to continue with the current loose policy. However, there are speculations around this report, investors are expecting policy normalization soon. We can see it on a USD/JPY pair 4-hours chart. Despite the news about the unchanged Japanese monetary policy, USD/JPY is falling, the lowest price from the time of the announcement was 110.63.

Technical analysis shows that USD/JPY is dangerously close to the support line from the 2016 low in 110 area. Very close to this area there is 100-week MA. These strong support levels will hold initial selling pressure. On the upside, the main obstacle is at 111.70 (200-day MA, 50-week MA).

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[riki143]

EUR/USD Daily Analytics
12:29 23.01.2018

There's an "Engulfing" pattern, which has been formed at the last high. So, the pair is likely going to test the 34 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another upward price movement.

The 55 Moving Average acted as support, so there's a "High Wave" pattern. In this case, we could have a local upward correction. Nevertheless, bears are likely going to test the 89 MA afterwards.

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[riki143]

USD/JPY Daily Analytics
12:32 23.01.2018

There's a bearish "Harami", which has been formed on the upper "Window". So, the market is likely going to test the lower "Window" in the short term.

The 89 Moving Average has acted as resistance once again, so there's a "Harami" pattern. Therefore, the market is likely going to continue moving down in the coming hours.

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[riki143]

EUR/USD Daily Analytics
12:39 23.01.2018

There's a pullback from 4/8 MM Level, so wave [iv] might have been formed. Therefore, we're likely going to have an upward impulse in wave [v] of 5 in the coming days. The main intraday target is 6/8 MM Level.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there's a possible triangle in wave [iv]. If correct, wave [v] is going to begin anytime soon.

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[riki143]

EUR/USD Daily Analytics
05:50 24.01.2018
Technical levels: support – 1.2270; resistance – 1.2390.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 1.2310/20; SL — 1.2300; TP1 — 1.2390; TP2 — 1.2430
Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with rising Tenkan-sen; the prices are supported by Cloud, Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and a market is ready to go higher.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur-usd-euro-reached-new-highs-6422

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD Daily Analytics
05:52 24.01.2018
Technical levels: support – 1.4000; resistance – 1.4070.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 1.4000; SL — 1.3880; TP1 — 1.4070; TP2 — 1.5000.
Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with rising lines; a market reached new highs over 1.4000.

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[riki143]

USD/CHF Daily Analytics
06:38 24.01.2018
Recommendation:

BUY 0.9665 SL 0.961 TP1 0.973 TP2 0.9775 TP3 0.98

BUY 0.949 SL 0.9435 TP1 0.9555 TP2 0.964 TP3 0.973

On the daily chart, USD/CHF keeps forming the “Bat” pattern with a target of 88.6%. For now, bulls and bears are fighting for 78.6% of the wave XA. If bears manage to conquer it, the decline will continue. On the other hand, rebound from the current support will increase the possibility of a pullback.

On H1, USD/CHF there may be a formation of a “Widening wedge”. To do that bulls will need to return the pair to resistance at 0.9665.

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[riki143]

GBP/USD Daily Analytics
06:47 24.01.2018
Recommendation:

BUY 1.3935

SL 1.388

TP1 1.405 TP2 1.415 TP3 1.425

On the daily chart, GBP/USD is trading in an uptrend. The pair reached 161.8% of the AB=CD pattern. This increases the possibility of a pullback. On the other hand, a successful test of resistance at 1.4050 will allow talking about the continuation towards the convergence area of 1.4250-1.2495.

On H1, there’s a “Spike and reversal with acceleration pattern”. A break of support at 1.3935 will create grounds for correction to 1.3815 and 1.3745. At these levels, buyers will become more active.

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[riki143]

EUR/USD Daily Analytics
12:57 24.01.2018

The main trend is still bullish, so the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.2358 - 1.2456. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline towards the nearest support at 1.2322 - 1.2272.

There's no any reversal pattern, so the pair is likely going to test the next resistance at 1.2358 - 1.2398 during the day. This area could be a departure point for a bearish correction towards the closest support at 1.2358 - 1.2322.

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[riki143]

GBP/USD Daily analytics
12:59 24.01.2018

Bulls faced with resistance at 1.4089. Nevertheless, the market is likely going to test the next resistance at 1.4129 - 1.4206 soon. If a pullback from these levels happens little later on, we could have a downward correction.

There's a new local high. Meanwhile, if a pullback from the nearest resistance at 1.4129 happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a bearish correction towards the closest support at 1.4089 - 1.4027.

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[riki143]

EUR/USD Daily Analytics
13:03 24.01.2018

There's no any reversal pattern so far, but we could have a local bearish correction in the coming hours. Nevertheless, the market is likely going to continue moving up afterwards.

We've got a bearish "Shooting Star", which hasn't been confirmed yet. In this case, the 55 Moving Average is likely going to act as support. A pullback from this line will be a green light for another bullish rally.

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[riki143]

USD/JPY Daily analytics
13:06 24.01.2018

The price has reached the lower "Window", but there isn't any bullish pattern. So, the market is likely going to continue moving down in the short term.

All the last candles are bearish, so the isn't any reversal model. Therefore, the market is likely going to declining towards the next support area.

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[riki143]

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THE ECB MEETING?
08:37 25.01.2018

Today we are waiting for the news from the European Central Bank. The ECB press conference will be held at 15:30 MT time.

It is worth to say that last time in December the ECB left its monetary policy unchanged. So let’s see what we can expect from this meeting.

Most of the economists suppose that the ECB will not change the monetary policy again because of an obstacle - the continuing quantitative easing that it promised to hold until September 2018. However, we can say that this time the most interesting part of the conference is not interest rates, but comments of the bank President. First of all, Mario Draghi will face a huge number of questions over how fast the central bank is going to change its policy. Secondly, his address and comments will affect the EUR/USD pair. The pair was rising since the beginning of 2017 and recently achieved a new 3-year high. Such growth creates worries for the ECB because continuing rise of the currency is not good for the economy. That is why the ECB should gradually shift its stance to avoid a more destructive move in the future. And it is what economists are waiting from Draghi, they expect him to announce gradual policy changes. Although no one expects immediate changes in the ECB policy, traders will pay a lot of attention to the speech of the President. During the conference, the single currency will be vulnerable.

As for numbers, analysts from Danske Bank forecast the fall of the single currency to 1.20 in short-term, but not lower. However, it is expected to surge to 1.28 by the end of the year, if only inflation will grow to 2%.

So we can say that the ECB monetary policy will likely stay stable but the conference will affect the EUR/USD pair a lot. Considering future, economists are looking for policy changes in March/April meetings.

More forecasts on EUR/USD rate you can find

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[riki143]

EUR/JPY Daily Analytics
09:21 25.01.2018
Recommendation:

SELL 134.95 SL 135.5 TP1 134.3 TP2 133.7

BUY 136.2 SL 135.65 TP 137.2 TP2 138

On the daily chart, EUR/JPY is consolidating in the 135.00-136.40 area. A break of its upper border will increase the odds of advance to 127.2% of AB=CD pattern. The nearest support level is near 134.30.

On H1, EUR/JPY is retesting the neckline of “Head and Shoulders”. A break below correction low will allow bears to count on the continuation of a pullback. On the other hand, advance above 136.20 will increase the risks of uptrend’s resumption.

More:
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[riki143]

USD/JPY Daily Analytics
09:29 25.01.2018

Recommendation:

BUY 109.45

SL 108.9

TP1 110 TP2 110.45

On the daily chart, a return of the pair inside the downtrend channel shows that bears have total control. Never the less, there may be a small pullback from 78.6% and 88.6% of the wave XA of the “Bat” pattern.

On H1, a pullback of USD/JPY from 200% target of AB=CD with the following formation of Anti-Turtles will signal potential correction. For a start, bulls have to push the pair above 109.45.

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[riki143]

EUR/USD Daily Analytics
10:01 25.01.2018

Bulls faced with resistance at 1.2456, so the market is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.2358 - 1.2322. If a pullback from this area happens little later on, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards the next resistance at 1.2456 - 1.2500.

There's a "V-Top" pattern, so the pair is likely going to achieve the closest support at 1.2358. This level could be a departure point for a bullish price movement in the direction of another resistance at 1.2456 - 1.2500.

More:
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[riki143]

GBP/USD Daily analytics
10:06 25.01.2018

The main trend is still bullish, but the pair faced resistance at 1.4331, so there's an opportunity to have a downward correction towards the nearest support at 1.4129 - 1.4089. If we have a pullback from this area little later on, bulls will probably try to test the next resistance at 1.4386 - 1.4433.

We've got a "V-Top" pattern, which has been formed at the last local high. The main intraday target is the closest support at 1.4195 - 1.4129. However, if a pullback from these levels arrives afterwards, there'll be a moment to have another upward price movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.4386 - 1.4433.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD Daily Analytics
11:16 25.01.2018

There're a "High Wave" and a "Harami" patterns, which have been formed at the last high. Therefore, the price is likely going to test the 21 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another bullish price movement.

We've got a "Three Black Crows" pattern, which has been confirmed. In this case, we should keep an eye on the 55 Moving Average as an intraday bearish target.

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