Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FBS, Dec 18, 2013.

  1. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

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    GBP/USD Daily Analytics
    07:30 28.12.2017
    Technical levels: support – 1.3400; resistance – 1.3460, 1.3510.

    Trade recommendations:

    Sell — 1.3450; SL — 1.3470; TP1 — 1.3400; TP2 — 1.3340.
    Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud, horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, with horizontal lines; the prices are under strong resistance of 1.3460.

    [​IMG]

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp-usd-pound-reached-3w-maximums-5969
     
  2. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

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    USD/JPY Daily analytics
    07:47 28.12.2017
    Recommendation:

    BUY 113.65

    SL 113.10

    TP1 114.65 TP2 115.3 TP3 116.2

    On the daily chart, the inability of bulls to hold the pair above important support at 112.95-113 will point at their weakness. On the other hand, successful test of resistance at 113.70 will increase the odds of advance to 113% of the senior “Shark” pattern.

    [​IMG]

    On H1, USD/JPY keeps forming a 5-0 pattern. A break of resistance at 113.65 will create grounds for the continuation of the rally. A decline below the diagonal support will increase the risks of triggering “Head and Shoulders” pattern.

    [​IMG]

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd-jpy-yen-is-making-a-choice-5971
     
  3. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

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    USD/CHF Daily Analytics
    07:54 28.12.2017
    Recommendation:

    BUY 0.9930

    SL 0.9875

    TP1 1.003 TP2 1.0145

    On H1, bears prepare to pull USD/CHF below the diagonal support in the form of the uptrend’s lower border. To break the medium-term bullish trend the pair has to get beyond the triangle and then trigger the “Bat” pattern. On the other hand, a pullback from support will create grounds for a recovery to 200% target of AB=CD.

    [​IMG]

    On H1, USD/CHF is consolidating within “Spike and ledge” and 5-0. A break of resistance at 0.9930 will increase the probability of the rally’s continuation.

    [​IMG]

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd-chf-franc-spent-a-lot-of-time-on-the-shelf-5972
     
  4. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

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    EUR/USD Daily Analytics
    11:14 28.12.2017

    [​IMG]

    There's a consolidation, which is taking place above the 34 Moving Average. The main intraday target is the next resistance at 1.1975 - 1.2003. If a pullback from this area happens little later on, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline towards the nearest support at 1.1919 - 1.1901.

    [​IMG]

    The price went through the resistance area at 1.1914 - 1.1941. However, it's likely to have a correction towards the nearest support at 1.1914. If a pullback from this level happens, we could have an upward price movement towards another resistance at 1.1975 - 1.2003.

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur-usd-consolidation-above-34-ma-5975
     
  5. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

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    GBP/USD Daily Analytics
    11:17 28.12.2017

    [​IMG]

    The trend is still bullish. The main intraday target is the next resistance at 1.3465 - 1.3519. If a pullback from this level happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline in the direction of the closest support at 1.3445 - 1.3419.

    [​IMG]

    The last "Triangle" has been broken, so the price is rising. At the same time, we could have a bearish correction towards the nearest support area at 1.3430, which could be a departure point for another bullish rally.

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp-usd-main-trend-still-bullish-5976
     
  6. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

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    EUR/USD Daily Analytics
    11:21 28.12.2017

    [​IMG]

    The upper "Window" is acting as resistance, so there's an opportunity to have a bearish correction towards the last "Three Methods" pattern. If a pullback from this area happens little later on, bulls are likely going to deliver a new local high.

    [​IMG]

    There's a "High Wave" pattern, which is likely going to be confirmed soon. In this case, we could have a downward correction in the coming hours.

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur-usd-high-wave-pattern-5977
     
  7. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

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    USD/JPY Daily Analytics
    11:25 28.12.2017

    [​IMG]

    We've got a bearish "Hammer" pattern, which hasn't been confirmed yet. Therefore, we should keep an eye on the 21 Moving Average as the next intraday target.

    [​IMG]

    The lower "Window" acted as support, so there's a bullish "Harami" pattern. Under this circumstance, the 55 & 89 are likely going to act as resistance in the short term.

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd-jpy-window-acted-as-support-5978
     
  8. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

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    EUR/USD Daily Analytics
    03:32 29.12.2017

    [​IMG]

    There's a pullback from the nearest resistance at 1.1960, so the market is likely going to test the closest support at 1.1919 - 1.1901 in the coming hours. If a pullback from this area happens little later on, there'll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement towards the next resistance at 1.1960 - 1.1968.

    [​IMG]

    We've got a "V-Top" pattern, so the price is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.1914. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this level forms, we could have a bullish price movement in the direction of the next resistance at 1.1960 - 1.1968.

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur-usd-pullback-from-nearest-resistance-5983
     
  9. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

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    GBP/USD Daily Analytics
    03:38 29.12.2017

    [​IMG]

    The last "Triangle" has been broken, but the price is consolidating. The main intraday target is the 34 Moving Average. If this line acts as support, bulls are likely going to test the closest resistance at 1.3465 - 1.3519.

    [​IMG]

    The uptrend has acted as resistance, so the price is consolidating. In this case, we're likely going to have a bearish correction in the short term. If a pullback from the closest support happens at 1.3420, we could have just another bullish rally.

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp-usd-broken-triangle-5985
     
  10. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

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    EUR/JPY Daily Analytics
    07:32 29.12.2017
    Recommendation:

    BUY 135.00

    SL 134.45

    TP1 136 TP2 137 TP3 138

    On the daily chart, EUR/JPY bulls are trying to continue going up to 200% of AB=CD. Never the less, if bears manage to return the pair inside the previous consolidation range of 131.50-133.95, the risks of a reversal “Shakeout-Fakeout” pattern will increase.

    [​IMG]

    On H1, after reaching the targets of the “Widening wedge” and rebound from support at 134, the rally continued. To seal their success, bulls need to renew December high.

    [​IMG]

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur-jpy-bulls-are-painting-ab=cd-5989
     
  11. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

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    EUR/USD Daily Analytics
    07:40 29.12.2017
    Recommendation:

    SELL 1.1895

    SL 1.1950

    TP1 1.1820 TP2 1.1795 TP3 1.1735

    On the daily chart, if EUR/USD renews November high, the odds of its getting to 161.8% target of AB=CD will increase. Never the less, if bulls fail to settle above resistance at 1.1965-1.1975, there may be a “Top/ Bottom 2B” strategy of Victor Sperandeo. Return of the pair to the candle’s low, at which it has a previous high, is a signal for selling.

    [​IMG]

    On H1, the inability of bulls to keep pushing up increases the risks of a reversal “Widening Wedge” pattern.

    [​IMG]

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur-usd-bulls-entered-a-dangerous-area-5990
     
  12. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

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    FOREX MARKET IN JANUARY
    10:55 29.12.2017

    The start of the new year is a great time to set new goals and develop new skills. It would be wise to begin with developing mindfulness and strategic thinking. To do that, I propose you to prepare for trading in advance. In this article, we’ll analyze the strengths and weaknesses of major currencies in January, as well as the main Forex events of the month.



    Note that January is typically a very volatile month. The first days of the month can be especially volatile as the amount of liquidity will be lower than usual with many traders on holidays. In addition, many major pairs have been consolidating in triangles – a move that usually precedes rapid breakthroughs.



    USD
    The Federal Reserve delivered a long-awaited rate hike in December, and the market doesn’t expect more hikes until March.

    The main events of January will be the release of labor market data on January 5 (nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings), the publication of CPI and retail sales on January 12 and advance GDP for Q4 on January 26. Reconstruction from three hurricanes may have boosted growth in the fourth quarter. Note that as the market is currently pricing in only one rate hike fully, improvements in American economic indicators can revive demand for the USD and help it recover.

    When Donald Trump’s tax reform was finally signed, it failed to move the USD much. We think that the market will once again get interested in the impact of this legislation on the US economy, but later in 2018. In January tax reform is not likely to be of much help for the greenback.

    The US dollar index is about to quit 92.00/95.00 range. A slide below 92.00 may lead to a deeper selloff of the US currency (91.00 and 90.00 for a start). On the upside, resistance is located at 94.00 and 95.00.

    EUR
    So far, the euro hasn’t been able to fall substantially versus the US dollar as buyers used its declined to increase their positions. This buying on the dips led to the situation when downside corrections in EUR/USD seemed only shallow. At the same time, the pair needs to overcome the psychological resistance at 1.20 to resume the general uptrend of 2017, which has stalled since August. 50-month MA at 1.1745 will act as support.

    Traders continue to expect policy normalization from the European Central Bank. The ECB will meet on January 25. The market’s attention will be focused on the press conference of the ECB president Mario Draghi at 15:30 MT time. Mr. Draghi usually has his way with words: he is always able to turn the market’s sentiment round during his speech. As a result, his pressers lead to big swings in the euro. In December, the ECB remained committed to asset purchases, although starting from January the regulator will be buying fewer bonds (in line with the decision made in October).

    Europe is doing fine economically, although inflation could be higher. On the political front, there are some minor risks. Germany will enter 2018 without a government as Angela Merkel failed to form a coalition nearly 90 days after the general election. Her party will begin talks with the Social Democratic Party (SPD) on January 7. The Catalan separatist parties won 70 seats in a regional parliament consisting of 135 seats prolonging political tensions in Spain.

    Some market-moving headlines from the world of politics are possible, but the main scenario is that the situation will remain calm and the euro will manage to continue its fight with the greenback from a rather favorable position. Watch EUR/JPY for ideas – the pair seems ready to explore higher levels.

    GBP
    Prime Minister Theresa May managed to move Brexit negotiations onto the questions of a transitional period and trade. This should have a positive impact on the pound. At the same time, political uncertainty hasn’t entirely vanished from the UK. Members of May’s own conservative party seem eager to complicate the talks. As a result, traders seem to be in the situation of indecision. When you try to estimate the impact of the incoming news from Britain, remember that the ‘softer’ the Brexit, the better for the pound.

    On the economic front, we propose you to focus on the release of British manufacturing production on January 10, CPI on January 16 and preliminary GDP for Q4 on January 26.

    On the daily chart, GBP/USD is still supported by the moving averages. Yet, the uptrend of 2017 has a small slope. Bullish momentum exists but is not strong. The pair firstly needs to overcome a major obstacle at 1.3600 (September highs). The uptrend’s support is at 1.3220.

    JPY
    The actions of the Bank of Japan continue to hurt the yen, although some analysts think that the Japanese currency has already become undervalued. The nation’s economic figures for November came out strong. The regulator’s meeting will take place on January 23. Japanese central bank will release the Outlook Report containing its view on economic conditions and inflation.

    The USD ended the year on the weak foot. This may change if America releases strong economic figures. In particular, we think that the US GDP may come out strong.

    A decline below 112.50 will open the way down to 111.70 and 110.00. We’ll witness negative scenario if the US data seriously disappoint or if global risk aversion increases (for example, if we get news from North Korea). Resistance is at 113.50 and 114.00.

    AUD
    There will be no meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australian (RBA) in January. The most important events of the month, thus, will be the releases of retail sales on January 11, labor market figures on January 18 and inflation data on January 31.

    The main fuel for higher AUD/USD comes from the weaker US dollar. Low inflation, weak wage growth and a relatively high debt burden on households make rate hikes in Australia not very likely. As a result, fundamental analysts will concentrate on the economic news coming from the United States.

    Resistance for pair lies at 0.7865 (200-week MA) ahead of 0.8045 (200-month MA). A strong support is just above 0.7500, where we find a support line from the start of 2016.

    CAD
    The Bank of Canada will meet on January 17. In December, comments of the central bank’s management sounded hawkish, although the economic picture in the country remains mixed. As a result, traders will eagerly await the BOC press conference to see whether the regulator remains optimistic and plans to keep raising interest rates in the foreseeable future. No doubts that we’ll see the CAD move a lot during the event. Canadian employment figures will come out on January 5 and retail sales and CPI will be out on January 25 and 26 respectively.

    By the end of 2017, Canadian dollar got a boost as WTI oil rose above $60 a barrel for the first time since 2015. CAD traders should monitor the dynamics of oil in January as well.

    A fall below 200-week MA at 1.2600 will open the way down for USD/CAD to 1.2450/00. Resistance is at 1.2850 and 1.2900.

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/forex-market-in-january-5956
     
  13. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

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    EUR/USD Daily Analytics
    11:18 29.12.2017

    [​IMG]

    There's a possible "Belt Hold" pattern, which has been formed on the lower "Window". Therefore, the market is likely going to continue rising towards the next "Window".

    [​IMG]

    We still don't have any reversal pattern. However, if a pullback from the nearest resistance arrives little later on, there'll be an opportunity to have a bearish correction.

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur-usd-belt-hold-pattern-5993
     
  14. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

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    USD/JPY Daily Analytics
    11:22 29.12.2017

    [​IMG]

    There's a bearish "Three Methods" pattern. At the same time, there's no any reversal pattern so far. Therefore, the price is likely going to continue declining towards the lower "Window".

    [​IMG]

    We've got a "Shooting Star" pattern, which has been formed at the last local high. In this case, the pair is likely going to decline until any bullish pattern forms.

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd-jpy-shooting-star-pattern-5995
     
  15. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

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    BITCOIN (BTC/USD)
    19:25 01.01.2018
    Bitcoin keeps moving below the 200-hour moving average, which has allowed cryptocurrency to weaken in the markets, especially against the US dollar. From the 50% Fibonacci level we have seen that the BTC has encountered resistance, along with the 200 SMA mentioned in the H1 chart, which helps to add pressure to the BTC/USD.

    The key support of 11,588 remains intact and is likely to remain that way for a few more days, due to the recovery that has been taking place since the December 30 session. The resistance of 13,618 continues to be key to the development of the trend in Bitcoin, in addition to the Parabolic SAR is reflecting a bearish condition.

    What do we expect?

    According to our projections in the short term, Bitcoin is going to stay in the corrective stage and still has air to continue with the bearish movement. The closest target is at the low of December 22 at 10,680, which should be fractured so that the crypto-currency falls to the Fibonacci target of -23.6% at 8,507.

    [​IMG]

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/bitcoin-btc-usd-targeting-below-the-10k-level-6005
     
  16. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

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    GBP/AUD
    19:26 01.01.2018
    GBP/AUD stays alive in the bearish trend held since several days ago, consolidating its price action below the 200 SMA at H1 chart, which is also offering a dynamic resistance in the pair across the board. The next target to the upside lies at the Fibo target of 50% in 1.7359, at which could trigger sell orders to reach the next downside target at the -23.6% Fibo level at 1.7137.

    RSI indicator remains in the neutral territory, pointing to the downside in the short-term.

    [​IMG]

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp-aud-with-a-supply-zone-around-17360-6006
     
  17. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

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    BITCOIN (BTC/USD]
    22:01 02.01.2018
    Cryptocurrency continues to move in a lateral range around the 200-hour moving average and continues to be further depressed by the bearish price action, given that there are no new higher-level patterns across the board. The Parabolic SAR continues to favor an upward recovery in the short term, although it may be invalidated by a different price action.

    The 11.588 support remains active and we may see rebounds around that area. The fundamental news continues to be the main catalyst for price movements in Bitcoin, as it is an asset that is very susceptible to the headlines that appear in the press regarding the regulation of the BTC in the global financial markets or the uncertainties generated by the geopolitical tensions.

    What do we expect?

    According to our projections in the H1 chart, the BTC/USD pair keeps pointing to levels below the important psychological barrier of 10,000 in the short term. Once the Bitcoin breaks below 10.680, we could point to the pair falling to the Fibonacci level of -23.6% at 8.507. The RSI remains in positive territory, favoring recoveries in the short term.

    [​IMG]

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/bitcoin-btc-usd-with-a-strong-support-around-11588-6018
     
  18. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

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    USD/CHF
    22:04 02.01.2018
    USD/CHF remains weak across the board and stays strong with a bearish consolidation below the 200 SMA at H1 chart. The 50 SMA is also helping to guide further declines in the pair, but we’re now expecting a strong support to be found in the 0.9700 level. Such level should help to activate take profit orders that would allow a corrective move towards the 50% Fibo level at 0.9807. If the pair manages to pull back around that area, the next target should be the -23.6% zone at 0.9648.

    RSI indicator remains strong in the oversold territory.

    [​IMG]

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd-chf-time-to-correct-6019
     
  19. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

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    GBP/USD Daily Analytics
    12:01 04.01.2018

    [​IMG]

    The main trend is still bullish, so we should keep an eye on the nearest resistance at 1.3595 - 1.3618 as the next intraday target. If a pullback from this area happens little later on, there'll be a moment to have a decline towards the closest support at 1.3419 - 1.3465.

    [​IMG]

    The 55 Moving Average has acted as support, so there's a "Triple Bottom" pattern. In this case, bulls are likely going to test the next resistance at 1.3595 - 1.3612. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this area is on the table, bears will probably try to achieve the nearest support at 1.3537 - 1.3519.

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp-usd-triple-bottom-pattern-6038
     
  20. riki143

    riki143 Master Trader

    6,700
    4
    59
    EUR/USD Daily Analytics
    12:04 04.01.2018

    [​IMG]

    Bulls faced with resistance at 1.2091, so the price is consolidating. Nevertheless, the pair is likely going to continue moving up towards the next resistance at 1.2080 - 1.2129. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a bearish correction in the direction of the nearest support at 1.2003 - 1.1975.

    [​IMG]

    The price is consolidating above the Moving Averages. The main intraday target is the closest resistance area at 1.2080 - 1.2129. These levels could be a departure point for a decline towards the nearest support at 1.2003.

    More:
    https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur-usd-pair-going-to-test-next-resistance-6039
     

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