Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Oct. 1

EUR/USD fell to $1.2570 as the euro zone’s core inflation surprised to the downside. There are no signs that euro’s planning to stop its freefall, while US dollar enjoys broad strength. Support is at $1.2587, $1.2550 and $1.2500. Resistance is at $1.2660, $1.2715 and $1.2750. On Wednesday the pair will be focused on the data due in the US – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (12:15 GMT) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (14:00 GMT). The approaching ECB’s meeting will keep pressuring euro.

GBP/USD recovered back above $1.6200 after hitting Sep.16 low of $1.6160 on Tuesday. Break below the $1.6275 area was a strong bearish signal that confirmed a local peak at $1.6520. Fix below $1.6160 will open the way to $1.6060 (Sep.10 low). Don’t miss the UK manufacturing PMI on Wednesday at 8:30 GMT. The index is expected to have grown from 52.5 to 52.6 in August, but is still remains far below the yearly highs.

USD/JPY hit a new 6-year high of 109.85. Global demand remains elevated, so we expect our initial target of 110.60 to be hit on the current week. Short-term support lies at 109.10. Japan will release Q3 Tankan indices tonight – forecasts are downbeat, so USD/JPY could get more growth fuel.

AUD/USD recoiled down from the downtrend channel resistance in the $0.8770 area, but was getting support on the downside. The key support is at $0.8700. Watch whether Australian retail sales data and Chinese official PMI will surprise the market. Risk sentiment isn’t positive and we don’t recommend longs until the current downtrend is breached.



More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2491

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Oct. 1: MARKET VIDEOREVIEW

Risk sentiment: Asian stocks fell because of continued civil unrest in Hong Kong. Chinese markets are closed for National Day. Chinese manufacturing data offered investors some relief with the official Purchasing Managers' Index was unchanged at 51.1 in Sep.

AUD/USD fell to 8-month low: retail sales grew less than expected (+0.1% vs. the forecast of +0.4%).

NZD/USD: under pressure, upside capped at $0.7820

EUR: on the downside, just above $1.2600 ahead of the ECB’s tomorrow meeting and amid concern inflation will keep slowing.

GBP/USD: bearish at $1.6180. Watch the UK Manufacturing PMI at 8:30 GMT.

JPY: Tankan Large Manufacturing Index is at maximum since Q1, Tankan Services Index is down for 2 consecutive quarters, lowest since Sep. 2013.

USD/JPY rose to 110 yen: dollar strengthened ahead of the ADP employment report (12:15 GMT).



More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1780

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Oct. 1: key currency options

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2600 (large), $1.2650 (large), $1.2700 (large), $1.2750 (large), $1.2775 (large), $1.2800 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.6200, $1.6225;

USD/JPY: 109.00, 109.60 (large), 110.00 (large);

USD/CHF: 0.9450;

AUD/USD: $0.8850;

USD/CAD: 1.1100, 1.1145/60, 1.1200;

EUR/GBP: 0.7775 (large), 0.7850 (large), 0.7900 (large).

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1781

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS
1 October 2014

GBP: Manufacturing PMI disappoints

UK manufacturing PMI came at a 17-month low of 51.6 in August versus 52.6 forecasted. July reading was revised down to 52.2. Pace of UK growth is clearly slowing down in the second half of the year.

GBP/USD dipped to $1.6160 support on the news, but met buying interest and recovered into the $1.6180 area.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1782

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS
1 October 2014

EUR: Barclays lowered growth outlook

- Most euro area member states disappointed in Q2 with declines in Germany and Italy and stagnation in France. Although Germany is expected to return to moderate growth in the second half of the year, the situation remains worrying in Italy and France, where PMI indices dropped below 50 in August, and even further in France in September according to the flash estimate.

- The Russia-Ukraine conflict is likely to keep affecting the European economy.

- Barclays revised down euro area growth forecasts to 0.7% for 2014 and 1.1% for 2015, down by 0.4pp and 0.5pp than June projections.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1783

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Oct. 2

EUR/USD was consolidating around $1.2600 forming lower highs and higher lows on the hourly chart. Euro’s under pressure before the ECB’s tomorrow meeting. The markets are nervous as the situation remains uncertain: the ECB has already done much, but so far it has failed to encourage inflation. One thing which is clear is that the ECB is interested in lower euro. Mario Draghi is expected to unveil the details of the ABS purchase program, and traders will be focusing on its size. The possible sum of 500B euro sum was rumored. If the market thinks that what the ECB will announce won’t be enough, euro will fall on the expectations of additional stimulus. On the other hand, the bigger the sum, the bigger is the risk of a relief rally. Technical outlook remains bearish with resistance at $1.2660, $1.2715 and $1.2760. Target $1.2500 and $1.2460 on the downside.

GBP/USD remains supported at $1.6160 in the early US trade. The cable is forming a long-legged candle for a second day in a row – this could be a bullish reversal signal if confirmed. We need to see a daily close above $1.6200 to buy with a target of $1.6270. On the other hand, fix below $1.6160 would open the way to $1.6060. Watch the UK construction PMI on Thursday – the index is projected to slip from 64.0 to 63.7. However, this is still an elevated level, confirming economic strength.

US Treasury yields keep on falling, giving some hope to the USD/JPY bears. The pair retraced from the daily high at 110.08 into the 109.50 area on Wednesday despite the increase of ADP nonfarm payrolls. Break below the 109.10 support could bring the pair down to 108.40. However, demand for the JPY will likely remain limited ahead of the US labor data on Friday, so we maintain a buy-on-dips strategy.

The dips of AUD/USD are being bought. A rise above $0.8770 will trigger an increase to $0.8830 (a place to sell). Inability to rise above $0.8770 will lead to another decline. Support is at $0.8680. Watch Australian building approvals and trade balance data. Consensus forecasts aren’t very good.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2504

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Oct. 2: MARKET REVIEW

USD: down on the speculation its recent gains have been too fast, and after weaker data from America released yesterday.

AUD/USD: up to $0.8815 as Australian building approvals rose by 3.0% vs. 1.1% expected.

AUD, NZD: property restrictions in China have been eased (positive factor).

GBP/USD: up to $1.6250 ahead of the UK construction data (08:30 GMT).

EUR/USD: up to $1.2670. The market’s waiting for the ECB meeting and press conference (11:45 and 12:30 GMT).

JPY: strengthened as a safe haven on the concerns about global growth and Ebola health scare in the United States.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1784

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS
2 October 2014

What to expect from the ECB?

The European Central Bank will announce its latest decision on rates and monetary policy at 11:45 GMT, with the ECB president Mario Draghi taking press questions 45 minutes later.

Further rate cuts are very unlikely: the main refinancing rate is expected to stay at 0.05%, while the deposit rate - at -0.2%.

Market attention will be focused on the details of the asset-backed securities and covered bonds purchases programs that will likely start this month. The most important questions for the markets are how much and what exactly the ECB is going to buy.

According to the most recent Reuters forecast, the ECB will spend around 200 billion euros for asset purchases till the end of the year. Some experts don’t expect the overall volume to overcome 100 billion euros. The insufficient amount of stimulus won’t be enough to change the inflationary expectations and trigger the economic recovery. As a result, we could see EUR/USD falling further on increased economic uncertainty. Large amount of asset purchases could add to market optimism and support the pair - at least in a short term.

As we understood from the TLTRO (targeted long-term refinancing operations), announced in earlier September, the amount matters. The ECB offered banks to take cheap loans, but the demand was much lower than expected (only 82.6 billion euros). The markets became worried as the ECB ability to support the economy came under question. This time the ECB will likely sound more decisive and dovish to convince the markets. However, the unknown ECB officials said the initial amount of buying will be modest.

At the same time, the composition of the asset purchases is also important. Draghi is not really worried about the asset quality these days: he proposed buying some “junk” securities of Greece and Cyprus. The news could offer some support to the single currency.

The pressure on the ECB to launch full quantitative easing (QE) is mounting. However, the regulator doesn’t seem to be ready for such cardinal measures.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1785

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Oct. 3

EUR/USD rose to $1.2690, but then returned down to $1.2650. The ECB kept rates unchanged. The most important piece of information from Mario Draghi’s press conference is that purchases of covered bonds will start in the middle of October, while ABS will be bought from Q4, 2014. The ECB gave no estimates of the size of the programs, but said that they will last 2 years. The market will be now digesting this information. The main question is: has the ECB done enough or it will have to do a full-blown QE in future? As the central bank has stressed that the medium-term inflation forecast has declined, expectations of more from the ECB may remain. Technically watch for support at $1.2600 – a slide below this level will confirm the continuation of the downtrend. Resistance is at $1.2700, $1.2715 and $1.2760. Today’s data from the US was mixed. Tomorrow watch the NFP and American unemployment rate at 12:30 GMT – traditional source of volatility.

GBP/USD extends the downside in the early US trade, approaching the $1.6100 support. Intraday rallies were capped at $1.6175. The cable kept on falling despite the outstandingly strong UK construction PMI release (8 month high of 64.2). Tomorrow will bring us probably the most awaited release – Service sector PMI at 8:30 GMT. The index is expected to have declined from 60.5 to 59.1. However, even is the figure comes out stronger, we doubt that the current bearish trend could be paused. Hold a short position with a target of $1.6070.

USD/JPY extends the decline from the 110 mark, hitting 108.30 in Europe. The pair found some support in this area, but we expect the short-term sales to continue. Break below 108.20 will open the way to 107.30 and 106.80. The picture remains bearish below 109.00 yen. On Friday all eyes will be glued to the US NFP release – strong figures will clearly push the pair higher.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2512

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
3 October 2014

EUR/USD: 12th week of declines

EUR/USD fell for 12th week in a row.

The meeting of the European Central Bank wasn’t a big market mover. President Mario Draghi said only that the ECB will start purchasing covered bonds in the middle of October, while ABS will be bought from Q4. The ECB gave no estimates of the size of this private debt purchasing programs, but said that they will last at least 2 years.

On the one hand, many market players doubt that the ECB will manage to expand its balance sheet enough to weaken the currency. This provided support to EUR/USD. On the other hand, some traders are worried that if the measures, which have already been announced, don’t work, the ECB will have to do a full-blown QE in future. This is keeping euro under pressure. So, the situation remains uncertain.

The fundamentals in the euro area are still weak and weaker than in the US. Inflation in the region experienced further decline in September: the headline reading fell to 0.3%, while the core figure declined to 0.7%. Draghi confirmed that the medium-term inflation outlook worsened. The US, on the contrary, showed an improving labor market.

As a result, the outlook for the pair remains bearish. Note that EUR/USD approached $1.2500 (74.6% Fibo of the advance from 2012-2014). This level may provide some support ahead of $1.2460 and $1.2400. Resistance is at $1.2660 and $1.2750. We’ll close out medium-term short position at $1.2500 and will sell on recoveries. The main event in the euro area’s economic calendar next week is Mario Draghi’s speech on Thursday.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2527

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Oct. 6: MARKET REVIEW

USD index at 4-year high on solid U.S. payroll gains, Japanese stocks bounced

Bank holiday in Australia and China

EUR, GBP, AUD: consolidate around the Friday’s close

NZD/USD dipped to $0.7710, but recovered

USD/JPY dipped to 109.50

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1797

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Oct. 6: MARKET VIDEOREVIEW

• USD index at 4-year high on solid U.S. payroll gains, Japanese stocks bounced;
• Bank holiday in Australia and China;
• EUR, GBP, AUD: consolidate around the Friday’s close;
• NZD/USD dipped to $0.7710, but recovered;
• USD/JPY dipped to 109.50.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1797

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Oct. 7



EUR/USD found some support around $1.2500 (psychological level, 74.6% Fibo) and recovered a bit on Monday despite bad data from Europe. Data release showed that German factory orders made a sharp decline of 5.7% in August. Sentix Investor Confidence was also negative. At the same time, US dollar is broadly weaker versus its peers as it’s long overbought, and it’s harder for the USD bulls to push up. Tomorrow watch German industrial production (06:00 GMT) and French budget balance (06:45 GMT) – forecasts are weak, but EUR/USD may hold on as the biggest market mover is the FOMC meeting minutes due on Wednesday. The most important piece of data from America tomorrow will be the speeches of Kocherlakota and Dudley (17:20 and 19:00 GMT) – these are the dovish members of the Fed, so their comments will be potentially USD-negative. We think that the pair will be trading in the $1.2500/1.2650 area. It’s reasonable to sell at the top of this range with stops above $1.2700.

Japanese yen has recovered some ground on Monday: USD/JPY fell back to 109.10 yen in the European trade. Bank of Japan holds its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday. Policy is widely expected to remain unchanged. Markets will pay special attention to the BOJ press conference: will the Central Bank change the tone? We don’t expect too much from this meeting: the economy still remains weak, but, according to the recent speculation, the regulator is more likely to change the terms of achieving the inflation target than the monetary policy. However, any dovish comments will push USD/JPY higher. Resistance lies at 110.00 and 110.60, while support – at 109.10/00 and 108.20.

GBP/USD recovered from the 11-month low of $1.5950, but remains capped by the $1.6000 mark. The short-term picture remains clearly bearish below $1.6050. Great Britain is scheduled to release Manufacturing Production data on Tuesday, 8:30 GMT (forecast 0.2% vs. prior 0.3%). Market participants remain indecisive ahead of the FOMC minutes (Wednesday) and the BOE policy decision (Thursday), but we expect the cable to extend the downside in the coming days. Next support lies at $1.5900 and $1.5840.

AUD/USD recovered from the recent lows, but is still under pressure of the Ichimoku Cloud on H4. The market expects the RBA to sound dovish at its tomorrow meeting. If it does, the pair will test support at $0.8660, $0.8615 and $0.8600 – the base scenario. Resistance is at $0.8665, $0.8830 and $0.8870.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2545

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Oct. 7: MARKET VIDEOREVIEW

USD: edged higher, Monday’s decline is seen as profit-taking. Watch the speeches of Kocherlakota and Dudley (17:20 and 19:00 GMT).

EUR: edged down after gaining more than 1% on Monday. Watch German industrial production (06:00 GMT) and French budget balance (06:45 GMT).

GBP/USD recovered to $1.6070, markets await manufacturing production at 8:30 GMT

USD/JPY slipped below 109.00 yen

BOJ: policy unchanged, notes weakness in production, CPI will stay around 1.25% for some time

AUD: The Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates unchanged, mentioned moderate growth in economy, there will be a period of stability in interest rates; no new measures to cool the housing market. According to RBA, AUD remains high by historical standards.

NZD/USD: under pressure, but holds above $0.7800, NZIER Business Confidence down from 32 to 19



More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1803

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Oct. 7: key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2550, $1.2595/1.2600 (large), $1.2635 (large), $1.2650, $1.2700, 1.2730 (large), $1.2750 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.6050 (large), $1.6085 (large);

USD/JPY: 108.40 (large), 110.50/55 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.1150/55, 1.1200, 1.1225, 1.1250;

NZD/USD: 0.7900, 0.7925;

EUR/GBP: 0.7780.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1804

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Oct. 8

EUR/USD rose to $1.2650 on Monday almost compensating the Friday’s selloff and finishing the day close to the high. In addition, the euro is holding pretty well in the past 2 days despite weak data from the euro area. This actually means that the pair was seriously oversold and support at $1.2500 is really strong. As a result, the odds are that the pair may test higher levels. A powerful fix above $1.2570 and inside the H4 Ichimoku Cloud will be a bullish signal. The fate of the pair depends on the FOMC meeting minutes due tomorrow (18:00 GMT): there’s the risk of the market’s disappointment and lower USD on this release. In such case EUR/USD may test $1.2800 (previous channel support). Support is at $1.2570. Below this level we’ll once again turn bearish.

GBP/USD hovers slightly below the $1.6100 mark in the late European trade. The pair holds below the trend line resistance, descending from the local $1.6520 high. Despite this week’s recovery, we remain bearish below the $1.6300 mark and expect the downside to continue after a few days of consolidation.

Japanese yen keeps on strengthening: USD/JPY dipped to 108.20 in Europe. As expected, the BOJ left policy unchanged and gave no clear signals on its policy intentions, but the recent Abe’s remarks on cheap currency are a bearish factor for the pair. Fix below the 108.00 mark will open the way to our initial bearish target at 107.30. Watch the Japanese current account data on Wednesday (surplus is expected to widen towards 0.19T).

AUD/USD has reached the target at $0.8330 (top of the H4 Cloud), which we outlined yesterday as our alternative scenario. Despite the expectation, the RBA didn’t make many dovish comments. In addition, there’s a general setback in the USD today. There are bullish signs from Ichimoku. Above $0.8830 resistance is at $0.8850 (a still descending 100-period MA), $0.8890, $0.8925 and $0.9000. Support is at $0.8750 and $0.8650.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2558

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Oct. 8: MARKET VIDEOREVIEW

USD: Dovish comments of the Fed member Kocherlakota (“falling unemployment is no reason to raise rates”). Market is expecting the release of the FOMC minutes (18:00 GMT).

EUR: Bundesbank President Weidmann criticizes ECB’s stimulus measures.

GBP/USD: upside capped at $1.6120

USD/JPY: found a local support at 107.70, Japan’s current account surplus below forecast

AUD: Australian Bureau of Statistics is going to have to revise the July and August employment data (August figures were exceptionally high).

AUD: Chinese HSBC Services PMI edged down reinforcing expectations of further stimulus measures



More:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLRsGBWPEro

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS
8 October 2014

IMF reduced growth forecasts

FXBAZOOKA.com – The International Monetary Fund reduced its global growth forecast for this year from 3.4% to 3.3%, warning of weakness in the euro zone, Japan and big emerging markets such as Brazil.

The IMF sees a 30% chance that the euro zone will fall into deflation and a nearly 40% risk that it will slide into a recession over the next year. Data on Tuesday signaled Japan may already be in a mild recession.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1807

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Oct. 8: key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2600 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.6130 (large);

USD/JPY: 108.00 (large), 108.50 (large), 108.90 (large), 109.50/55 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.1150 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.8770, $0.8815;

EUR/GBP: 0.7750, 0.7800.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1808

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Oct. 9

The main theme of Wednesday was risk aversion and concerns about global growth. Still EUR/USD bulls are trying to stick to the $1.2670 area as the market awaits the release of the FOMC meeting minutes (18:00 GMT) later today. Main resistance is located at $1.2700. Given the better performance of euro in the past two days, there’s still a chance of $1.2790/1.2800 if the Fed is dovish. Support is at $1.2630, $1.2600 and $1.2570. On Thursday watch the ECB President Mario Draghi speak at 15:00 GMT. We expect dovish comments from Draghi as the recent data from the euro area was grim.

GBP/USD consolidates below the $1.6120 resistance on Tuesday. The cable bounced from the $1.5950 support on Friday, but the upside remains contained by the trend line resistance, descending from $1.6520. On Tuesday we’ve seen a long-legged candle – market remains uncertain about pushing higher. Fix above $1.6120 could open the way to $1.6230 (July-October resistance). However, we still remain bearish in the medium term. The Bank of England will likely remain on hold on Thursday’s meeting – the meeting minutes later in the month are going to be a more important release.

USD/JPY consolidates around the 108.00 mark. According to our forecast, a daily fix below this level will trigger a more rapid bearish correction with a target of 106.00/105.80. Watch the core machinery orders data tomorrow - growth is expected to have slowed down. Next resistance lies at 108.50 and 109.00 yen.

AUD/USD is trading sideways between resistance at $0.8830 and support at $0.8750. Aussie has to overcome $0.8830 to rise to $0.8885 and $0.8930. Note that Aussie will be vulnerable for decline on Australian labor market data due tomorrow (00:30 GMT), and it makes sense to sell after the FOMC. Watch for a break of support at $0.8750 on the downside for a decline to $0.8660 with next target at $0.8605.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2570