USD/JPY: DOLLAR MADE NEW LOCAL LOWS
08:28 01.08.2017
Technical levels: support – 110.00; resistance – 110.50.
Trade recommendations:
Sell — 110.50; SL — 110.70; TP1 — 110.00; TP2 — 109.60.
Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A and B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with the falling lines; the prices are made the new lows, but the market is oversold.
On the daily chart, bears managed to pull the pair below 110.50 (23.6% of the last descending wave) and settled below this level. Sellers retain control of the pair and pull the pair towards 200% target of AB=CD pattern. In order to counterattack, bulls need to return the pair above 110.50.
On H1, the situation looks desperate for buyers. The nearest support levels are close to 109.65, 109.01-109.15 and 108.70. They correspond to 127.2%, 161.8%, 200% and 224% of AB=CD pattern.
On the daily chart, NZD/USD reached 113% target of the inverted “Shark” pattern. This increases the risks of correction, but doesn’t cancel the long-term uptrend. Increase towards 0.7900 (161.8% target of AB=CD) will likely continue.
On H1, NZD/USD formed a triangle and a “Spike and ledge” pattern on the basis of 1-2-3. If the pair quits the 0.7460-0.7525 range, the uptrend may resume or the pair may correct towards the lower border of the trading channel.
Bulls faced resistance at 1.1846, so the price is consolidating. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the nearest support at 1.1776 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this level, there'll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement in the direction of the next resistance at 1.1875 - 1.1923.
There's a "Double Top" pattern, so bears are likely going to achieve the closest support at 1.1801 - 1.1776. However, if a pullback from this area happens, bulls will have a green light to test the nearest resistance at 1.1846 - 1.1875.
The price found resistance at 1.3234, so we should keep an eye on the nearest support at 1.3158 as an intraday bearish target. If a pullback from this level arrived afterwards, there'll be an option to have another bullish rally towards the next resistance at 1.3277.
We've got a "Thorn" pattern, which has been confirmed. So, the pair is likely going to test the closest support at 1.3184 - 1.3175 during the day. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this area happens, bulls will probably try to reach another resistance at 1.3234 - 1.3277.
We've got a bearish "Tweezers", but this pattern hasn't been confirmed yet. So, we should keep an eye on the nearest support level, which could be a departure point for another upward price movement.
There are bearish patterns such an "Engulfing", a "High Wave" and a "Tweezers", which all have been confirmed. In this case, bears are likely going to test the 55 Moving Average in the short term.
There's a bullish "High Wave" at the last low. Considering confirmation of this pattern, there's an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards the 21 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, we could have just another decline.
The lower "Window" has acted as support, so we've got a "Harami" pattern on this level. The main intraday target is the 34 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for a local correction at least.
The price is consolidating between the levels 1.1846 - 1.1776. Also, there's a "Flag" pattern, so the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.1846 - 1.1875. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline towards the closest support at 1.1801.
We've got a "Flag" right under resistance at 1.1846. It's likely that the price is going to test the lower side of this pattern. Anyway, bulls will probably try to test the next resistance at 1.1846 - 1.1875 afterwards.
GBP/USD: BEARS GOING TO TEST NEAREST SUPPORT
10:55 02.08.2017
There's a "Triple Top" at the last high. If this pattern confirms, bears are likely going to test the nearest support at 1.3158. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this level happens afterwards, there'll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement towards the next resistance at 1.3234 - 1.3277.
The price is still consolidating. However, there's a "Triple Top" pattern, which has been confirmed, but bears faced support at 1.2184. So, we could have a local correction during the day. Nevertheless, we should keep an eye on the next support as an intraday bearish target.
On the daily chart, bulls keep trying to return the prices inside the previous uptrend channel. Gold price formed an inside bar and doji. This points at uncertainty. Buyers’ success will allow us to expect a resumption of an uptrend, while their failure will trigger a correction.
On H1, the prices reached 200% target of AB=CD and finished forming the “Widening wedge” pattern. The break of support at $1263 an ounce will open the way down to $1257 and $1248.
On the daily chart, there’s a “Spike and reversal with acceleration” pattern. The break of a trendline in the ‘spike” phase increases the risks of correction towards 0.7800. In that area, there’s a 88.6% target of a “Shark” pattern and the lower border of the bullish channel.
On H1, there’s a “Shakeout-Fakeout” pattern. Return of the pair to the middle of the 0.7880-0.7965 channel will strengthen the risks of a pullback towards 113% and 161.8% targets of “Shark” and “Crab” patterns.
Technical levels: support – 1.1820; resistance – 1.1935.
Trade recommendations:
Buy — 1.1820; SL — 1.1800; TP1 — 1.1900; TP2 – 1.1930.
Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with rising Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices made a new local highs since 2015 year.
AUD/USD: AUSSIE RETURNED TO CLOUD AGAIN
12:41 02.08.2017
Technical levels: support – 0.7910/20; resistance – 0.7990.
Trade recommendations:
Buy — 0.7910; SL — 0.7890; TP1 — 0.7990; TP2 — 0.8030.
Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but falling Senkou Span A; a cancelled golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen wit horizontal lines; the prices are on the support of the Cloud.
There's a bearish "Harami" at the last high. If this pattern confirms, the market is likely going to test the nearest support level. Anyway, bulls will probably try to push the price even higher afterwards.
We've got a "Harami" pattern, so bears are likely going to test the 34 Moving Average during the day. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this line happens, we could have just another upward price movement.
USD/JPY: "WINDOW" ACTED AS SUPPORT
14:48 02.08.2017
The last bullish "High Wave" pattern has been confirmed, so the price reached the 21 Moving Average. However, the pair is likely going to test the next 34 MA. If a pullback from this line happens afterwards, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline towards the nearest support level.
The lower "Window" has acted as support, so we're going to have a bullish correction. The main intraday target is the 34 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another decline.
On the daily chart, EUR/USD keeps forming the wave 4-5 of the “Widening wave” pattern. In future, 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% of this wave may be used for opening long positions. However, it’s firstly necessary to wait until the wave is finished.
On H1, there is a “Spike and reversal with an acceleration” pattern. At the moment, the pair is in the “Spike” phase. The break of a trend line will strengthen the risks of decline towards support at 1.1765, 1.1680 and 1.1580. Never the less, as long as the pair’s above the lower border of the uptrend channel, bulls remain in control.
USD/CAD: BULLS ARE HAVING TROUBLES
09:55 03.08.2017
Recommendation:
SELL 1.2540
SL 1.2595
TP1 1.2420, TP2 1.2200
On the daily chart, we see a start of correction to the downtrend towards 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% of the wave CD. It became possible because the “Shark” pattern transformed into 5-0. To confirm their intentions, bulls need to lead the pair outside of the downtrend channel.
On H1, USD/CAD is forming the “Dragon” pattern. Usually the dragon's head forms in the convergence area on the levels of the dragon’s head (1.2610-1.2635). If bulls fail to get above the resistance, risks of the “rising wedge” will increase.
The last "Flag" pattern led to another bullish rally, so the price faces resistance at 1.1923. Also, there's a "Thorn" pattern, which means the market is likely going to reach the nearest support at 1.1801. If a pullback from this level happens, we could have another upward price movement towards the next resistance at 1.1875 - 1.1923.
There's a "Thorn" pattern, so the price achieved support at 1.1846. In this case, we could have a local bullish price movement towards the closest resistance at 1.1876. If a pullback from this level arrives afterwards, bears are likely going to test the nearest support at 1.1818 - 1.1801.
The price is consolidating under resistance at 1.3234, but we've got a "Double Top". If this pattern confirms, bears are likely going to test the nearest support at 1.3184. If a pullback from this level happens, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards the next resistance at 1.3277.
We've got a "Rising Wedge" pattern, so the price is likely going to test the closest resistance at 1.3243 - 1.3250 during the day. However, if we see a pullback from this area, bulls will have a green light to achieve another support at 1.3207 - 1.3184.
We've got a "Shooting Star" pattern, which hasn't been confirmed yet. So, we could have just a local bearish correction towards the last "Three Methods" pattern. However, bulls will probably try to deliver a new high afterwards.
There's a local bullish "Hammer", so the price is likely going to test the nearest resistance. If a pullback from this level happens, bears will have a green light to test the 89 Moving Average.
