Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears going to move on
2/7/2017

We’ve got a “Triple Top”, which has been confirmed, so the price is testing the lower side of the current “Rising Wedge” pattern. In this case, the market is likely going to reach a support at 1.0669. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish price movement towards a resistance at 1.0774 – 1.0732.

The uptrend is acting as a support. So, bears are likely going to test a support at 1.0678 – 1.0670 in the short term. Considering a possible pullback from this area, there’s a chance to have an upward price movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.0719 – 1.0732.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12366

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Pennant" led to decline
2/7/2017

The price is consolidating near the broken local uptrend. The 89 Moving Average is acting as a support. However, the pair is likely going to continue falling down in the short term, so we should keep an eye on a support at 1.2411 – 1.2386 as a possible intraday target. If a pullback from this area happens, bulls will probably try to achieve a resistance at 1.2509 – 1.2548.

The last “Pennant” has been broken, so the price faced a support at 1.2432. Nevertheless, the market is likely going to reach the next support at 1.2411 – 1.2386. If we see a pullback from these level, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards a resistance at 1.2490 – 1.2518.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12367

 

[riki143]

Ahead of Abe-Trump meeting
2/7/2017

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe prepares to meet US President Donald Trump on Friday seeking to counter the president’s criticism of Japan’s monetary and trade policies. Mr. Abe is going to establish close ties with new administration promising greater Japanese investments in the US economy. In addition, he plans to persuade the US president that Japan is not trying to devalue its nation’s currency to make the business easier for Japanese exporters. PM Abe said that the BoJ’s loose monetary policy is aimed at defeating deflation, not at improving the country’s terms of trade.

In the first week of the presidency, Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal having called it a disaster for his beloved land. Mr. Abe is betting on the conclusion of the bilateral trade pact promising economic and strategic benefits for Japan and the US. But the possibility of negotiating this deal has not been discussed specifically.

Strategists’ opinion on how this meeting may influence the nations’ currencies is divided. Some analysts believe that it will pose some upside risks for the yen, as the Japanese currency proved to be very sensitive to any criticism of the BoJ’s easing monetary policies. Another group of FX market’s analysts bets on the strengthening of the USD pointing at the US benefits from the partnership with Japan (new job openings in the US, the creation of the new markets worth $450 bln). We believe that the outcome of the meeting will help us to identify the accurate direction of the USD/JPY currency pair. For the present moment, we may consider trading other pairs with JPY, USD in the names counting on the evaluation of the both currencies.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12369

 

[riki143]

Ahead of Abe-Trump meeting
2/7/2017

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe prepares to meet US President Donald Trump on Friday seeking to counter the president’s criticism of Japan’s monetary and trade policies. Mr. Abe is going to establish close ties with new administration promising greater Japanese investments in the US economy. In addition, he plans to persuade the US president that Japan is not trying to devalue its nation’s currency to make the business easier for Japanese exporters. PM Abe said that the BoJ’s loose monetary policy is aimed at defeating deflation, not at improving the country’s terms of trade.

In the first week of the presidency, Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal having called it a disaster for his beloved land. Mr. Abe is betting on the conclusion of the bilateral trade pact promising economic and strategic benefits for Japan and the US. But the possibility of negotiating this deal has not been discussed specifically.

Strategists’ opinion on how this meeting may influence the nations’ currencies is divided. Some analysts believe that it will pose some upside risks for the yen, as the Japanese currency proved to be very sensitive to any criticism of the BoJ’s easing monetary policies. Another group of FX market’s analysts bets on the strengthening of the USD pointing at the US benefits from the partnership with Japan (new job openings in the US, the creation of the new markets worth $450 bln). We believe that the outcome of the meeting will help us to identify the accurate direction of the USD/JPY currency pair. For the present moment, we may consider trading other pairs with JPY, USD in the names counting on the evaluation of the both currencies.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12369

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: pound tested the support
2/7/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2340; resistance – 1.2450.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.2340/50; SL — 1.2320; TP1 — 1.2450; TP2 — 1.2480.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but falling Senkou Span B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but there is falling lines; the prices are in the Cloud and on the main support.

More;
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12370

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: Dollar going to Tenkan-sen
2/7/2017

Technical levels: support – 111.80; resistance – 112.50, 112.70.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 112.50; SL — 112.70; TP1 — 111.80; TP2 — 111.30.

Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; the prices are in correction to Tenkan-Kijun.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12371

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Harami" on the lower "Window"
2/7/2017

We’ve got a bearish “Doji”, which has been confirmed, so the price reached the lower “Window”. If we see any bullish pattern afterwards, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance level.

The price achieved the nearest “Window”, so we’ve got a bullish “Harami”, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance, which could be a departure point for another decline.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12373

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls going to test "Window"
2/7/2017

We’ve got a “Tower” pattern, so the price came back to the upper “Window”. In this case, the bullish correction is likely going to be continued. If we see any bearish pattern on the 21 Moving Average afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have the market even lower.

There’s a “Hammer” at the local low, so the price is likely going to reach the 55 Moving Average. Meanwhile, we should keep an eye on the upper “Window” as a possible intraday target.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12374

 

[riki143]

Paul Tudor Jones’ chamber of secrets
2/7/2017

Paul Tudor Jones II is noted as one of the most successful traders in the history of the stock market. Paul is widely known due to the film entitled Trader focusing on his activity during 1987 financial crash. The video surfaced in the end of 1980s. Paul undertook numerous attempts to remove it from circulation supposedly because it reveals his trading secrets.

We would question this statement; we think that the actor worried in vain. It seems that his trading secrets will be wrapped up in an enigma forever. Having gone through numerous Internet pages, we failed to find a formula for the success of 26-year-old chap who managed to predict one of the greatest collapses in the history of financial markets. Many sources indicate that he did it using methods similar to market forecaster Robert Prechter. The latter one is a well-known proponent of Elliott Wave theory stating that stock prices unfold in specific repetitive patterns. We were left unsatisfied with such explanations. By that time, many knew about this theory but failed to predict the occurrence of the 1987 market crash. Mr. Jones did predict it somehow and made a tidy sum from his guess. “People will be gasping,” Mr. Jones says in the video grinning like a Cheshire cat, and then adds in his rich Memphis drawl. “It will be total rock ’n’ roll.” And it happened exactly like he had predicted. The market collapsed having drained the traders’ pockets. And Mr. Jones augmented his capital considerably.

We decided not to wrestle with a question of how he managed to predict the occurrence of the financial crash, and explained his success as follows: Mr. Jones must have a really special gut feeling, you know, the feeling that grows out of a trader’s experiences and practice and helps him to make profitable bets.

After 1987, Mr. Jones continued his success. He managed to earn $4.3 billion staying in the hedge fund industry. The billionaire investor is also known for his philanthropic conducts. He has been involved in numerous environmental and charity projects. Mr. Jones as the legendary epic archer Robin Hood helps poor people of New York, but unlike the medieval hero, he doesn’t rob the rich. He operates through the Robin Hood Foundation. Another great deed of Mr. Jones – the foundation of the Excellence Charter School, the country’s first all-boys charter school located in Brooklyn, one of the most densely populated counties in the United States.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12372

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bearish extension
2/7/2017

Wave 2 has been ended in a form of a zigzag, so the price is declining. Previously we’ve got a wedge in wave 1. So, there’s an opportunity to have a bearish impulse in wave in the short term.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s an extension in wave (iii). Meanwhile, wave iv is likely going to end during the day, so we could have wave v of (iii) soon. The main intraday target is 0/8 MM Level.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12375

 

[riki143]

EUR/JPY reached sell target 120.00
2/7/2015

EUR/JPY reached sell target 120.00
Next sell target – 119.00
EUR/JPY today broke the support zone lying between the support level 120.00 (which was set as the sell target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous upward impulse from November. The breakout of this support zone is likely to accelerate the active minor C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (2) from December.

If the pair closes today below 120.00 - EUR/JPY can, then, be expected to fall to the next sell target at the support level 119.00 (50% Fibonacci retracement level of the aforementioned upward impulse from November).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12376[/IMG]

 

[riki143]

GBP/NZD falling inside intermediate impulse wave (3)
2/7/2017

GBP/NZD falling inside intermediate impulse wave (3)
Next sell targets - 1.6870 and 1.6700
GBP/NZD has been falling sharply in the last few trading sessions inside the intermediate impulse wave (3), which started previously – when the pair reversed down from the resistance area located between the key resistance level 1.7450 (former strong support from November), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse (1) from December.

GBP/NZD is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.6870 (low of the previous impulse (1)) – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward 1.6700 (which stopped the earlier primary impulse ③ wave).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12377

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: pound lost its way in broad daylight
2/8/2017

On the GBP/USD daily chart, the implementation of the intermediate target at 78.6% in the "Shark" pattern was followed by a rollback in the direction of the 50% level of the CD wave. The downfall of quotes below the 38.2% level can lead to the realization of 5-0 pattern. In contrast, the rise of quotes above 78.6% and 88.6% level can lead to the restoration of "bullish" trend.

On the GBP/USD hourly chart, there is a final stage of the formation of the expanding wedge pattern. A breakout of the support at 1.2478-1.2484 followed by the activation of the 1-2-3 model will allow opening short positions. The 1.263 and 1.2665 levels can be used for the opening of long positions.

Recommendations:

SELL 1,2478 SL 1,2533 TP 1,2355,

BUY 1,263 TP 1,2575 TP 1,276.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12381

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears launched an attack
2/8/2017

On the EUR/USD daily chart, bears broke the diagonal support and pushed the quotes beyond the rising trading channel. If the sellers manage to test the 1.064 level (23.6% level of the last mid-term "bearish" wave), there is a risk of the recovery of the downtrend.

On the EUR/USD hourly chart, there was a breakout followed by the retest of the lower border of the upward trading channel. The bears will need to test the support at 1.0667 for the continuation of the downward movement towards the 113% target.

Recommendation: SELL 1,0667 SL 1,0722 TP1 1,0595 TP2 1,0535.

More;
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12382

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for February 8
2/8/2017

The euro moved below 1.0675 against the US dollar amid the investors’ concerns over looming French elections. Many analysts believe that the EUR is en-route to parity in the upcoming three months with moderate monsieur Francois Fillon still being embroiled in the scandal, monsieur Hamon still making overtures to Melenchon, and Marin Le Pen being confident in her win in the first round.

The yen extended its losses against the greenback. The latter one managed to move to 112.30 on the session. We don’t expect significant moves from the pair today; it seems that the trading will be subdued on the back of Abe-Trump meeting scheduled for Friday.

AUD/USD slid to 0.7630 on the Asian session having given back the yesterday’s post-RBA gains.

Today’s economic calendar is rather light with the RBNZ rate and monetary policy statements, and the US crude oil inventories.

NZD/USD moved lower to 0.7290 in the countdown to the Reserve Banks of New Zealand meeting. The bank is expected to leave its official rate cash unchanged at 1.75%. Traders will be looking for the RBNZ’s monetary policy statement struggling to decipher the future rate path. The bank’s officials will unlikely introduce any significant changes to its present monetary policy stance despite the uptick in Q4 inflation data. Therefore, the New Zealand shouldn’t receive a weighty support from today’s statement to recoup its recent losses.

GBP/USD spiked to 1.2545 overnight. The rally was triggered by hawkish comments from a BoE senior official Forbes. She said that the Bank of England might soon need a rate hike as inflation could rise faster than it is expected. The pound for the present moment is the only currency that is still holding its ground against the US dollar.

The Canadian dollar has strengthened against its US peer in the course of the Asian session striving to erase its yesterday’s losses. USD/CAD jumped above 1.3210 on the falling oil prices and disappointing data releases from Canada. Brent oil futures pared significant losses as China’s demand for oil has shrunken overshadowing the OPEC members’ efforts to cut output.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12383

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bearish "Flag"
2/8/2017

The price has broken the lower side of the last “Rising Wedge” and the local uptrend. The 89 Moving Average acted as a support, so the price is consolidating. In this case, the market is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.0619. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards a resistance at 1.0669 – 1.0697.

The pair faced a support at 1.0655, which led to the current consolidation. Also, there’s a “Flag” pattern, so bears are likely going to test a support at 1.0619 during the day. Considering a possible pullback from this level, there’s a chance to have a bullish movement in the direction of the closest resistance at 1.0670 – 1.0678.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12384

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bulls going to test nearest resistance
2/8/2017

We’ve got a “V-Bottom”, so the price reached a resistance at 1.2548. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the 55 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, bulls will probably try to test a resistance at 1.2548 – 1.2599.

There’s a “Triple Bottom”, which pushed the price to a resistance at 1.2548. In this case, bears are likely going to achieve the nearest support at 1.2458 – 1.2432. If we see a pullback from this area, there’ll be a chance to see the market higher, so we should keep an eye on a resistance at 1.2548 – 1.2581 as a possible intraday target.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12385

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: euro will test SSB
2/8/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.0640; resistance – 1.0740, 1.0770.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.0650; SL — 1.0620; TP1 — 1.0740; TP2 – 1.0770.

Reason: narrowing bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are in correction and under the support of Senkou Span B.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12386

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: aussie will be supported by Cloud
2/8/2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7620; resistance – 0.7690, 0.7720.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7620/30; SL — 0.7600; TP1 — 0.7690; TP2 — 0.7720.

Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a correctional irregular dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are on the support of the Cloud.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12387

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD outlook on the back of RBNZ announcement
2/8/2017

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to deliver its rate and monetary policy statements today at 10:00 pm MT time. The bank will probably hold its official cash rate on hold at 1.75% even though inflation gathers pace faster than the RBNZ expected. The bank officials will most likely be reluctant to raise interest rate any time soon willing to hinder the NZD appreciation and looking for further pieces of evidence of the acceleration of the actual inflation rates. So, at the coming meeting, RBNZ might adopt a wait-and-see approach and remain in its November’s neutral comfort zone for a while. And such accommodative monetary policy stance may result in market's disappointment.

The kiwi spiked to 0.7375 on Tuesday but failed to hold its positions or rise further. As a result, a bearish shooting star has been formed leading to the retracement in short-term. There are several supports on the downside located at 0.7270 (the lower Bollinger band on the daily timeframe), 0.7245 (100-day MA), that won’t allow kiwi to slide to the bottom. The upcoming RBNZ rate announcement may bring lots of choppiness to the chart which eventually might not result in any gains or losses.IMG]

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[UURL=[URL]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12388]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12388[/URL[/URL]]