Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

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EUR/USD: wave 2 ended
1/24/2017

Image20170124172505001.png


The price hasn’t found a lodgement above 4/8 MM Level, so wave 2 could be ended. In this case, bears are likely going to deliver a downward impulse in wave . The main intraday target is 2/8 MM Level.

Image20170124172505002.png


As we can see on the one-hour chart, the price is moving up and down along 8/8 MM Level. Also, a bullish impulse in wave [c] of 2 has been ended. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline in wave (iii) of .

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12174
 
USD/JPY: yen was stopped by the double bottom
1/25/2017

On the USD/JPY daily chart, a double bottom has been formed. The bears' attack was stopped and revealed the important support located at 112.5. A successful test of this support will lead to the continuation of the corrective movement towards 111.15 and 108.8. On the other hand, a breakout of the resistance at 114.05 will allow the bulls to take a rest.

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On the USD/JPY hourly chart, buyers are going to test the resistance at 114. If they succeed "Shark" inverted pattern with 88.6% and 113% targets will be activated. A necessary condition for this to happen is the need to go beyond the upper boundary of the downward trading channel.

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BUY 114,05 SL 113,5 TP1 115,1 TP2 115,65.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12178
 
Morning brief for January 25
1/25/2017

The main focus of the Asian session was Australian CPI. There was no sign of inflation moving towards cherished RBA’s target. The headline of the release fell out of the market’s expectation and sent Aussie lower towards circa 0.7540.

EUR/USD skipped to 1.0725. The greenback experienced a rebound overnight as Mr. Trump shifted his focus from protectionist policies to growth initiatives including tax cuts, deregulation. In a meeting with the CEOs of major car producers, President called on them to build more cars persistently repeating his mantra of buy only American, hire Americans. In addition, Mr. Trump signed some executive orders aiming to advance the construction of the Keystone XL and Dakota Access. Environmentalists rave and storm bitterly lamenting the end of the term of nature-friendly Democratic administration.

GBP/USD spiked to 1.2517 after the UK Supreme Court announced in its ruling that Parliament must vote to activate the Brexit mechanism. However, the triggering of Article 50 in March 2017 is still on the table as many parliamentarians have already come to terms with the fact that UK will no longer be a member of the EU and seem like to be ready to give the green light for the Brexit process.

NZD/USD experienced some wobbles at the time of Australian data but changed only a little so far. At the present moment, prices are hovering around the 0.7235 level. We expect New Zealand inflation release later today (consensus forecast indicates a modest 0.1% increase in inflation rate).

USD/CAD continues its downward movement towards the nearest support located at 0.3115 (near 200-day MA).

Brent oil futures edged up to $55.30. Renewed sentiments over imminent Trump’s growth policies wiped out the recent gains of safe-haven assets (gold move lower to $1210.65). The US dollar rose against the yen to 113.55 having covered its short-term losses.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12179
 
EUR/USD: bearish "Flag"
1/25/2017

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The price is consolidating under a resistance at 1.0795. Also, there’s a “Double Top” pattern, which has been confirmed. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.0697 – 1.0655. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.0745 – 1.0774.

25-1-2017-EUR-H1.png


We’ve got a “Double Top” pattern, which has been confirmed by the last “Flag” pattern, so bears are likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.0697 – 1.0684. At the same time, this area could be a departure point for another bullish rally.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12180
 
GBP/USD: bulls going to move on
1/25/2017

25-1-2017-GBP-H4.png


The price faced a resistance at 1.2548, so bears are likely going to test a support at 1.2468 – 1.2432 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this area, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish price movement towards the nearest resistance at 1.2548 – 1.2619.

25-1-2017-GBP-H1.png


The pair is consolidating between the 34 Moving Average and the level 1.2548. In this case, the market is likely going to decline in the direction of the closest support at 1.2468 – 1.2432. Considering a possible pullback from these levels, we should keep an eye on the next resistance at 1.2548 – 1.2581 as a possible intraday target.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12181
 
Key option levels for Wednesday, January 25th
1/2/2017

EUR/USD

EURUSD(113).png


Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 36 381 ? + 69 650 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0743/46; 1.0765; 1.0780; 1.0803
Closest support levels 1.0714; 1.0690; 1.0654; 1.0604
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0714, with target points at 1.0690 and 1.0654
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0743 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0765 and 1.0780

GBP/USD

GBPUSD(100).png


Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 230 ? + 157 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2531; 1.2561; 1.2598; 1.2623
Closest support levels 1.2490; 1.2462; 1.2442; 1.2417
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long GBP/USD above 1.2531, with target points at 1.2561 and 1.2598
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2490 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.2462 and 1.2442

USD/CAD

USDCAD(95).png


Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 863 ? + 343 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3172; 1.3198; 1.3238; 1.3293
Closest support levels 1.3137; 1.3118; 1.3099; 1.3067
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3172, with the target points at 1.3198 and 1.3238
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3137 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3118 and 1.3099

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12184
 
EUR/USD: euro need to going higher
1/25/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.0720; resistance – 1.0820.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.0740; SL — 1.0720; TP1 — 1.0820/30; TP2 – 1.0900.

Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are finished the correction to Tenkan-sen.

01-eurusdh4(83).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12186
 
USD/JPY: trading in range
1/25/2017

Technical levels: support – 113.30; resistance – 114.00, 114.40.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 113.70; SL — 113.50; TP1 — 114.40; TP2 — 115.20.

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but Senkou Span A is rising up; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; the prices are supported by Tenkan-sen in a range of Tenkan and Kijun.

04-usdjpyh4(70).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12187
 
Financial market documentaries
1/25/2017

Such Hollywood masterpieces as “The Wolf of Wall Street”, “Big short” needn’t be advertised. Every amateur trader must have seen them at least once. In this article, we’ve decided to concentrate on the movies that offer educational rather than entertainment value. Underneath you will find the selection of documentary movies that deserves the attention of those who are always up to learn something new.

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The Ascent of Money: Boom and Bust

It’s a complete six-part television documentary about the financial history of the world starting from the Babylonian times and ending with comprehensive introductory to the 2008 global financial crisis. Someone would say that watching this hours-long video it’s a complete waste of time, that traders don’t need a degree and knowledge of the history of money to be successful. And we won’t contradict this argument; gut feelings trump everything, but the knowledge of how the finance world operates is a supplementary tool in market’s analyses. It could be your secret MIND weapon if you like. And we don’t force you to watch the whole thing, perish the thought, no. Just take you time to watch the parts you’re most interested in.

25 Million Pounds

It is a classic story of success of Nick Leeson, not very honest, but brilliant man. Nick started his career as Morgan Stanley clerk and ended up as a rogue trader who managed to bring down Barings, an old British bank due to his abilities to deceive and manipulate those around him. It’s also a story of those he deceived. They voluntarily entered into a dream Nick Leeson wove lured by the prospect of whaling sums of money and together they lost 830 mln pounds.

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Floored

The movie captures the very essence of trading for living as it describes the life story of the old-school floor traders struggling to survive in the world of computerized markets. The age of technology has changed traders’ living, working habits, but not their penchant for making money. Floored is a gripping, honest and inspiring documentary describing the lives of professional traders: their worries, concerns, struggles, fears of the unknown.

Wall Street Warriors

It is a documentary series, not just a movie. So, don’t accidently hook on them. Each episode reveals us the details of various Wall Street entrepreneurs. A documentary allows its viewers to take a walk in the shoes of Wall Street pedestrians, to see the intense competition that reigns in the financial world of market gurus.

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Inside Job

It’s probably the most comprehensive and informative documentaries on the 2008 housing and banking financial crisis. The film covers the US policy changes and banking practices that led to the outburst of the global financial crisis. The practical value of the movie: once you know how the crisis evolved and understand its causes, you will be able to recognize the early stages of subsequent crises and shield yourself from possible financial losses.

InsideJobScreen.jpg


Too big to fail

It’s a film focusing on the actions of the US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson prior to the 2008 financial meltdown. The US Treasury officials face with the need to bailout such gigantic financial institutions as Lehman Brothers and multinational insurance corporation AIG having recognized that their collapse may lead to the devastating crisis. The film seeks to justify the “too big to fail” theory necessitating the need for a bailout of big firms because of their great influence on the financial system. According to advocates of this theory, the too-big-to-fail firm needs to be provided with government support in times of the economic turbulences because the consequences of its collapse won’t outweigh the costs spent on its avoidance.

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More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12188
 
Long-term USD/JPY forecast from Mr. Yen
1/25/2017

According to Eisuke Sakakibara, a former top currency official at Japan’s Finance Ministry, commonly known as Mr. Yen, JPY may strengthen significantly against its American peer and reach 100 yens per dollar mark by the end of this year.

Sakakibara’s reasoning:

It is unlikely that Mr. Trump manages to fulfill his pledge of 4% annual economic growth for the US. The most realistic growth rate for the US is 2 – 2.5%.
As soon as uncertainty over Trump’s policies arises and the period of European elections starts, the demand for yen as for safe-haven currency will increase;
The Trump’s administration will need a weaker dollar to shore up exports and employment (but weaker not too weak; if USD becomes too weak, the Fed’s will need to meddle in);
It’s unlikely that the US economy will be robust enough to sustain multiple interest rate increases that were well priced in by the market participants;
Japan is not allowed to intervene in the forex exchange market to offset the demand for yen without the consent of Group of Seven nations. Last time the BOJ intervened was in March 2011 after earthquake and tsunami, and that intervention was coordinated with other G7 members.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12189
 
EUR/USD: local "Hanging Man"
1/25/2017

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We’ve got a bearish “Harami” pattern at the local high. Also, the middle of the last white candle is acting as a support, so there’s an “Engulfing” pattern. Therefore, bulls are likely going to test the last high in the short term.

2501eurusdH1.png


There’s a “Hanging Man”, but a confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak. In this case, the market is likely going to test the nearest support level, which could be a departure point for another upward price movement.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12190
 
USD/JPY: bears going to test "Window"
1/25/2017

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The upper “Window” acted as a support once again, so we’ve got a “Piercing Line”. Also, the 13 Moving Average acted as a resistance. Considering the last “Harami” pattern, the pair is likely going to test the closest support in the coming hours. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish price movement.

2501usdjpyH1.png


There’re a “Doji” and a “Three Black Crows”, which both have been confirmed enough. Therefore, the market is likely going to achieve the nearest support, which could stop bears.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12191
 
EUR/CAD reversed from resistance area
1/25/2017

EUR/CAD reversed from resistance area
Next sell target – 1.4000
EUR/CAD recently reversed down sharply from the resistance area lying between the resistance level 1.4260 (which reversed the earlier minor correction 2 with the Dark Cloud Cover in December), the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the earlier downward impulse from November. The downward reversal from this resistance area created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star Doji.

EUR/CAD is expected to fall further toward the next sell target at the round support level 1.4000 (former top of the earlier minor correction (a) from the start of this month). Strong resistance remains at the aforementioned resistance level 1.4260.

EURCAD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Jan-25_1549_PM_(1_day)(1).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12192
 
CAD/CHF rising inside minor impulse wave (iii)
1/25/2017

CAD/CHF rising inside minor impulse wave (iii)
Next buy target - 0.7700
CAD/CHF continues to rise inside the minor impulse wave (iii) – which started earlier- when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 0.7500 (which also stopped the previous minor correction 2 in December, as can be seen below), the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse 1 from November.

The upward reversal form the aforementioned support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star. CAD/CHF is expected to rise further toward the next buy target at the next resistance level 0.7700 (top of the previous wave (b)).

CADCHF_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Jan-25_1550_PM_(1_day).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12193
 
EUR/USD: wave (iii) is about to start
1/25/2017

Image20170125175730001.png


4/8 MM Level is acting as a resistance. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bearish impulse in wave . At the same time, if 4/8 turns out to be broken, then bulls will be free to move on.

Image20170125175730002.png


As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a possible bullish impulse in wave [c] of 2. Also, we’ve got a small bearish impulse in wave (i). Therefore, there’s a chance to have another bearish impulse in wave (iii) of in the short term.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12194
 
AUD/USD: bulls are trying to regain control over the market
1/26/2017

On the AUD/USD daily chart, bears failed to keep the quotes below important support located at 0,754 (61.8% of the last descending XC wave). "Bulls" are trying to regain their control over the market. If they manage to update the January high, prices will move higher towards the resistance lines locates at 0.7645 and 0.771. There are 78.6% and 88.6% targets of the "Shark" inverted pattern.

Screenshot_2017_01_26_08_24_05.png


On the AUD/USD hourly chart, having fulfilled the target 88.6% in the "Bat" pattern, bulls started their attack. Breakouts of the resistance lines at 0.7586 and 0.7595 can lead to the restoration of the uptrend.

Screenshot_2017_01_26_08_24_20.png


Recommendation: BUY 0,7595 SL 0,754 TP 0,771.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12200
 
Gold: bulls showed their weakness
1/26/2017

On the daily chart of gold, a double top has been formed. It blocked the path of bulls to the north. To restore the uptrend quotes should rise above the resistance located at $1,205 per ounce, and then update the January highs. If bears manage to break the diagonal support and go out of the descending trading channel, there will be a correction towards $1,174.

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On the hourly chart of gold, a successful test of the lower boundary of the upward trading channel will signal us that bears remain control over the market.

Screenshot_2017_01_26_08_24_45.png


Recommendations:

SELL $1195 SL $1204 TP $1175,

BUY $1220 SL $1210 TP $1255.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12201
 
Morning brief for January 26
1/26/2017

The yield on 10-year US Treasury notes spiked to 2.50 overnight as risk aversion was ebbed. The US dollar refused to follow its usual pattern: instead of rising from higher Treasury yields, it weakened against its major peers.

The euro edged up to 1.0760. Today we will receive some domestic data releases from Spain and Germany. Also, there will be Eurogroup meetings gathering to discuss various financial issues.

The pound extended its gains and rose to 1.2655 on the Asian session. The pound trades like a currency that was beaten up so much that it can easily slide down. The heightened inflation rate trimmed the producers’ profit, as raw material prices have risen significantly. It may lead to the slowdown in the real wage growth rate and be reflected in consumption sentiments. Many believe that present bullish momentum in GBP/USD is not long-lasting. Let’s say that at the present moment the pound snatches at a chance striving to rise higher on the relative weakness of the US dollar.

The movement of AUD/USD is a bit atavistic. Unlike other currencies, Aussie weakened against the dollar and fell to 0.7570. At the start of the year, the Australian dollar gained mainly on the improvement of the global risk sentiment, bull commodity market. Yesterday, we got Australian CPI report indicating a rather slow growth of inflation rates. Aussie’s recent weakness might allow the Reserve Bank of Australia not to recourse to further easing measures next meeting.

USD/CAD continues its downward rally. The currency pair has already slumped to 1.3065. According to Nomura bank projection, USD/CAD is likely to end the first quarter at around 1.2800. Rising oil prices and improved domestic data should support the currency in near term.

Brent oil futures topped to $55.52 overnight. Gold continued a selloff and slipped to $1198.45 per ounce.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12202
 
EUR/USD: euro is on Tenkan’s support
1/26/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.0740; resistance – 1.0770, 1.0820.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.0740; SL — 1.0720; TP1 — 1.0820/30; TP2 – 1.0900.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; all the lines of Ichimoku Indicator are horizontal; the prices are supported by Tenkan-sen.

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More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12203
 
AUD/USD: market is under resistance
1/26/2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7550/60; resistance – 0.7610.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7560; SL — 0.7540; TP1 — 0.7610; TP2 — 0.7660.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but horizontal Senkou Span A; a weak dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are fixed on Tenkan’s support; a market is under a strong resistance on daily timeframe.

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More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12204