Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Breakaway Gap" acted as a resistance
11/16/2016

We’ve got a consolidation, which is taking place under a resistance at 1.2677. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline towards the 55 Moving Average in the short term. If we see a pullback from this line, there’ll be a chance to have an upward correction. In this case, we should keep an eye on a resistance at 1.2621 – 1.2677 as a possible bullish target.

The last uptrend has been broken. The price faced a support at 1.2351 afterwards, which led to the current consolidation. So, bears are likely going to reach the next support at 1.2399 – 1.2351 shortly. At the same time, there’s an opportunity to have a bullish correction afterwards.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11326

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: Aussie moved downward
11/16/2016

On the AUD/USD daily chart, there was a breakout of the lower boundary of the long-term upward trading channel. It shows that the control of the market was turned over to the "bears". "Perfect Butterfly" pattern tells us that the quotes may fall to 0.744. There is 127.2% target.

On the AUD/USD hourly chart, the formation of the expanding wedge pattern has been completed. The rise of prices towards 23.6% (0.7575), 38.2% (0.7615) and 50% (0.7645) levels formed from the 5.4 wave can be used for opening short positions.

Recommendations:

SELL 0,7575 SL 0,7630 TP 0,744,

SELL 0,7615 SL 0,767 TP 0,744,

SELL 0,7645 SL 0,77 TP 0,744.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11327

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears hit the brake pedal
11/16/2016

On the EUR/USD daily chart, there is an inside bar which indicates that there is an uncertainty in the market.Sellers decided to take a break and give respite to their counterparts. A breakout of the inside bar minimum (at 1.071) can move quotes towards the lower boundary of the "bearish" trading channel. Further dynamics in the movement of the pair will be brought by "bears" if they manage to attack support at 1,066.

On the EUR/USD hourly chart, the formation of the 1-2-3 reversal pattern followed by the break of resistance at 1.08 can return quotes to the downward trading channel. Implementation of the "Bat" inverted pattern can lead to the correction towards the convergence area at 1.09-1.092. It could be used for opening short positions.

Recommendation: SELL 1.0905 SL 1.096 TP 1.066.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11328

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for November 16, 2016.
11/16/2016

GBP/USD rose to 1.2480 on the speculation that “Brexit” might be delayed up to 2 years. Today keep in focus labor data (claimant count change, average earnings index, unemployment rate). A drop in jobless claims could send prices higher; a weak reading should push GBP/USD downward.

AUD/USD edged down to 0.7550 after wage growth data fell out of the expectations. US inflation and manufacturing data (PPI and manufacturing sales) can bring some moves to the technical chart of this currency pair.

NZD/USD slid down after devastating earthquake broke into the country. Now the pair is consolidating along the 0.7095 level. It may drop again later today, if NZ statistical releases (PPI input/output, retail sales) bring weak data.

EUR/USD is trading below 1.0750 showing a sign of recovery. The yield on 10-year US Treasures slipped to 2.2070 from Monday’s high of 2.302, but it is still sharply above its pre-election level. Retail sales data and manufacturing index released yesterday were ahead of expectations instilling confidence into December rate hike.

USD/JPY is trading along 109.05 having slipped slightly off its high (109.34) struck on Tuesday. There won’t be any data from Japan that could disturb the pair movement today.

USD/CAD went below 1.3430 in the Asian session. CAD’s upsurge could be attributed to the rise in oil prices. Brent oil futures hovered near their highest levels in two weeks (to $47.12) on Tuesday after OPEC members promised to strike a deal on the output cut at the end of November.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11329

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: on the Clouds support
11/16/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.2450; resistance – 1.2560, 1.2610.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.2450/60; SL — 1.2430; TP1 — 1.2560; TP2 — 1.2610.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud; correctional dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; strong support of the Cloud.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11330

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: bears are on the attack
11/16/2016

Technical levels: support – 0.7520/30, 0.7480; resistance – 0.7580.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 0.7530; SL — 0.7550; TP1 — 0.7480; TP2 — 0.7410.

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud; dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; but there is a strong support near 0.7500.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11331

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls are still active
11/16/2016

Technical levels: support – 108.50, 107.30; resistance – 109.70, 110.10.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 109.70; SL — 109.90; TP1 — 108.50; TP2 — 108.00.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud and rising lines of Ichimoku Indicator; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen over the Clouds; but there is an overbought market and a strong resistance levels.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11332

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Wednesday, November 16th
11/16/2016



EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 40 127 ? + 146 999 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0770; 1.0795; 1.0811; 1.0831
Closest support levels 1.0704; 1.0682; 1.0648; 1.0599
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0704, with target points at 1.0682 and 1.0648
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0770 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0795 and 1.0811


GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 330 ? + 860 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2491; 1.2514/24; 1.2570; 1.2616
Closest support levels 1.2449; 1.2431; 1.2402; 1.2361
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2449, with target points at 1.2431 and 1.2402
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2491 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2514/24 and 1.2570


USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 3 391 ? + 1 833 ?
Closest resistance levels 109.48(57?); 109.78; 110.11; 110.33
Closest support levels 108.92; 108.66; 108.46; 108.23
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 109.48, with the target points at 109.78 and 110.11
Alternative scenario Moving below 108.92 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 108.66 and 108.46

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11333

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD daily outlook
11/16/2016

USD/CAD moved lower yesterday due to the combination of two fundamental factors:

oil prices rose as market participants continue to weigh prospects of an output cut in the end of November;
yields on the US 10-year bonds that was supporting the US currency in the course of last trading sessions slipped to 2.2070 on Monday.


CAD’s boost shouldn’t last long. The US economy was growing steadily in last months, reinforcing trader’s hope for a rate hike in December. In contrast, Canada’s economic data signals of the imminent recession. The Bank of Canada cut interest rates twice this year to bust economic growth. There was a fiscal stimulus introduced by the Justin Trudeau’s government. This took some of the burdens off the shoulders of Stephen Poloz, the BOC governor, but did little to spur the nation’s economy. A “Trump factor” poses additional pressure on the Canadian currency. Trump’s victory in the US presidential election raised concerns over the future of NAFTA trade agreement. Canada is highly dependent on the trade relationships with America. If they are distorted, it may hurt Canada’s economy significantly.

The closest hurdles to take some of the selling pressure off are located at 1.3316 (38.2% Fibo retracement level from January high), 1.3250 (50-day MA on the daily timeframe) levels. The key data for Canada will be released on Friday. It’s the October Canadian CPI. If inflation data fall out of expectations, wait for prices to go up towards the nearest resistance at 1.3540 (the upper boundary of the upward trading channel). Stochastic on the H4 timeframe signals of the imminent upward reversal of quotes as it moved to the oversold area. In addition, on the daily timeframe, we may notice that 50-day MA crosses the 200-day MA and goes upward. It warns traders of the incoming domination of “bulls”.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11334

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD daily outlook
11/16/2016

This week is a bit shaky for NZD/USD currency pair. On Monday, there was a severe earthquake near the town of Kaikoura. Several hours ago, there was another earthquake at the same place. At the present moment, the pair is sliding down the 0.7019 support located against 200-day moving average. The next hurdles will appear at 0.7018 and at 0.6913 (50% FIbo retracement level from January low). The breach of the key support at 0.7110 (trendline retraced from the year low) started a downward trend reversal. We expect it will continue for a while on the back of the swelling Fed rate hike bets and loosening RBNZ monetary policy. The fundamental reasoning could be supported by some technical signals. Stochastic steered to the oversold area; MACD histogram went downward.

Today we will get a bunch NZ statistical releases (PPI input/output, retail sales) that could bring additional moves to the chart. The consensus forecasts warn us of the weak data. If readings fortuitously beat the market’s expectations, Kiwi may rebound from its present level to the nearest resistances at 0.7018, 0.7160 (the lower border of Ichimoku cloud) and 0.7208 (100-day MA). But this scenario is unlikely; the “bears” should continue to rule the roost.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11335

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD daily outlook
11/16/2016

This week is a bit shaky for NZD/USD currency pair. On Monday, there was a severe earthquake near the town of Kaikoura. Several hours ago, there was another earthquake at the same place. At the present moment, the pair is sliding down the 0.7019 support located against 200-day moving average. The next hurdles will appear at 0.7018 and at 0.6913 (50% FIbo retracement level from January low). The breach of the key support at 0.7110 (trendline retraced from the year low) started a downward trend reversal. We expect it will continue for a while on the back of the swelling Fed rate hike bets and loosening RBNZ monetary policy. The fundamental reasoning could be supported by some technical signals. Stochastic steered to the oversold area; MACD histogram went downward.

Today we will get a bunch NZ statistical releases (PPI input/output, retail sales) that could bring additional moves to the chart. The consensus forecasts warn us of the weak data. If readings fortuitously beat the market’s expectations, Kiwi may rebound from its present level to the nearest resistances at 0.7018, 0.7160 (the lower border of Ichimoku cloud) and 0.7208 (100-day MA). But this scenario is unlikely; the “bears” should continue to rule the roost.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11335

 

[riki143]

AUD/CAD broke support zone
11/16/2016

AUD/CAD broke support zone
Next sell target – 1.0000
AUD/CAD has been falling sharply in the last few trading sessions inside the minor correction 2 – which started earlier – when the pair reversed down with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Falling Star from the resistance level 1.0400 (previous buy target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair). The pair today broke through the support zone lying between the support levels 1.0150 and 1.0100.

The breakout of the aforementioned support zone coincided with the breakout of the support trendline of the daily up channel from June. AUD/CAD is likely to fall to the next sell target at parity (61.85 Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from August).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11336

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY reached buy target 109.00
11/16/2016

USD/JPY reached buy target 109.00
Next buy target - 111.40
USD/JPY today broke through the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the resistance level 109.00 (buy target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair) and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from the start of March. The breakout of this resistance zone is expected to accelerate the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate (C)-wave of the primary ABC correction ? from June.

USD/JPY is expected to rise to the next buy target at the strong resistance level 111.40 (which reversed the previous waves 4 and (4), as can be seen from the daily USD/JPY chart below).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11337

 

[riki143]

Forex trading plan for Nov. 17
11/16/2016

According to the futures market, the possibility of the Federal Reserve’s interest rates hike in December equals to 94%. The market is so sure as it expects Donald Trump’s spending plans to increase inflation, which in turn will create the need for higher rates in America. Traders will watch the speech of the Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen at 14:00 MT4 time on Thursday expecting her to confirm that the central bank is set to raise rates at December 16 meeting. There will be also speeches from FOMC members Dudley and Brainard. In addition, the United States will release a block of statistical data: building permits, CPI, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, unemployment claims and housing starts at 12:30 MT4 time. US 10-year Treasury yields rose on Wednesday providing a boost for the greenback. During the US trading session, however, the US released weaker producer price figures (core PPI fell by 0.2% in October). This may provide a reason for the USD to correct a bit lower during the next sessions.

EUR/USD went down for the 8th day in a row. The pair went below 78.6% Fibo of 2015-2016 advance at 1.0740. This level together with 1.0800 is now playing the role of resistance. Decline below the first weekly pivot support at 1.0686 will open the way down towards 1.0520. Euro area’s final consumer inflation for October is due at 09:00 MT4 time. The ECB will release the accounts of its monetary policy meeting.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11338

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD & UK Retail Sales for October: Will the bulls gain strength?
11/17/2016

Today at 09:30 GMT we’ll have the British version of Retail Sales for October, as the markets are waiting for an increase to 0.4% from 0.0% revised. Because of current GBP health, it will be interesting to see how was the consumer spending in the UK, which posted a weaker-than-expected number in September. Also, Brexit headlines continue to bring some volatility to the British Pound across the board.

Our technical view for GBP/USD at H1 chart is still bearish, but the pair is struggling to consolidate again above the 500 SMA. If the data comes above the expectations, we can see a breakout higher of the 1.2484 level, in order to perform a rally towards the 1.2538 level. However, if the UK retail sales data is weak, one could expect a decline to test Tuesday’s lows.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11341

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Hammer" points to local correction
11/17/2016

We've got a “High Wave” on the Daily chart, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. However, if a confirmation arrives later on, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local upward correction.

There’s an unconfirmed “Hammer” and a “Window”, which is still open. So, the pair is likely going to reach the nearest resistance in the short term. If we see a pullback from this level, bears will probably try to deliver another low.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11342

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "Window" going to act as a resistance
11/17/2016

There’s a possible “Doji” at the local high, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the price is likely going to achieve the closest “Window”, which could be a departure point for another bullish price movement.

We’ve got a “Shooting Star” and a “Harami”, which both have a confirmation. Meanwhile, the upper “Window” is likely going to act as a resistance. If so, the market is likely going to reach the 21 Moving Average.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11343

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears just can't stop
11/17/2016

The price faced a support at 1.0673, so we’ve got a local upward correction. However, bears are likely going to move on. In this case, we should keep an eye on the next support at 1.0636 as a possible intraday target. Also, there’s an opportunity to have a bullish correction afterwards.

It’s likely that a kind of a bearish pattern is developing on the one-hour chart. Therefore, the pair is likely going to achieve a support at 1.0636 shortly. If we see a pullback from this level, bulls will probably try to test a resistance at 1.0710 – 1.0744.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11344

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: price going to reach nearest support
11/17/2016

The price is consolidating between the nearest resistance at 1.2556 and the Moving Averages. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach a support at 1.2330 in the short term. If a pullback from this line be on the table, bulls are likely going to deliver an upward movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.2621 – 1.2677.

The previously broken uptrend is acting as a support. So, the price is likely going to achieve a support at 1.2399 – 1.2351 soon. Considering a possible pullback from this level, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.2556 afterwards.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11345

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD: qiwi is testing the neckline
11/17/2016

On the NZD/USD daily chart, quotes went out from the upward trade channel and from the triangle. It is the first signal of a reversal of the trend. If the "bears" test the neckline of the "Head and shoulders" pattern, the quotes may fall towards 0.68. There is 127.2% target of the "Perfect butterfly" pattern.

On the NZD/USD hourly chart, the target 88.6% in the "Shark" pattern has been fulfilled. It can be transformed into 5-0 pattern. Correction towards 23.6%, 38.2%, and 50% levels can be used for opening short positions.

Recommendation: SELL 0,7176 SL 0,7231 TP 0,68.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11346