Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Pennant" urge bears to move on
7/7/2016

The pair has achieved a support at 1.2863, which led to form a “V-Bottom” pattern, so we’ve got a consolidation in progress. Under this circumstances, the market is likely going to rise towards the nearest resistance at 1.3116 – 1.3226. If a pullback from this area arrives afterwards, bears will probably try to get a support at 1.2862, which can bring a new low.

We’ve got a “V-Bottom”, so the price reached a resistance at 1.3015. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the next resistance at 1.3116 – 1.3204 in the short term. However, bears are still in the game, so it’s possible to see the price near the important support at 1.2863 – 1.2795, which is near the main downward trend.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9513

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears ready going even deeper, but after a while
7/7/2016

The price has reached a support at 1.1032, which led to the current consolidation under the nearest resistance at 1.1097. Therefore, the market is likely going to achieve the next resistance at 1.1130 – 1.1168 in the short term. However, if a pullback from this area happens afterwards, bears will probably try to go on and catch a support at 1.1021 – 1.0970.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the price has stopped near the lower side of the current “Support Zone” at 1.1032, which led to form a “Double Bottom” pattern. So, we’ve got a local flat under the 55 Moving Average. It’s likely that bulls are going to get a resistance somewhere between the levels 1.1130 – 1.1145 during the day. Considering a possible pullback from this area, the next stage of the massive bearish rally will be on the table very soon.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9512

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY & US NFP June release: Will we see it below the 100.00 level?
7/8/2016

Today at 12:30 GMT will be released the US NFP reading for June, after the strong decline that had during the May release, where it added only 38,000 jobs. However, for this time, analysts expect a decent recovery towards the 175K number and if the current reading is better than expected, it should be given clearer signs about current situation of overall US economy. Bear in mind that yesterday's ADP jobs data showed a positive number, with 172,000 jobs added, which was above the consensus of 159,000.

The technical picture of USD/JPY at H4 chart ahead the US NFP is still very bearish. A resistance can be found around the 103.24, where the pair can do a breakout to test the bearish trend line projected from the 111.34 high level, of course if the reading for non-farm payrolls is higher than expected. However, if reading is worst than last release or below the 100K mark, it can test the “Brexit” low of 98.97 level.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9519

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD came to important levels
7/8/2016

On the daily AUD/USD chart the bulls and the bears are fighting for the initiative. So far, neither group managed to gain advantage. This can be seen from the fact that ADX is below 25 during the last 4 weeks. In the situation like trade on the break of the trading channel.

On H1 AUD/USD is consolidating during the last 24 hours (ADX<25) in the 0.747-0.7535 region. Break below the support will be a signal to open a short position, successful test of resistance will be a signal to open a long position. As confirmation use the return of Stochastics to the 20-80 trading channel.

Recommendations: SELL 0,7470 SL 0,7520, TP 0,7370; BUY 0,7535 SL 0,7485 TP 0,7635.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9520

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD is in the hands of bears
7/8/2016

On the daily GBP/USD chart there's a sustainable downtrend: ADX>25 and rising, +DMA>-DMI, EMA9<EMA26. Rising MACD points at correction or consolidation. This situation may be used for opening short positions on the break of support or on the pullback to the upside.

On H1 GBP/USD consolidated (ADX<25) in the 1.2868-1.3040 range. Successful test of support or the recoil from the upper border of the chanel should be used for opening short positions. In the first case ADX has tp move to 25 and better even cross this mark.

Recommendation: SELL 1,2868 SL 1,2918 TP 1,2768, SELL 1,3040 SL 1,3090 TP 1,2840.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9521

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Double Bottom" led to the bullish correction
7/8/2016

The price has been moving in a flat’s range right under the lower side of the previously broken “Flag” pattern. So, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.1021 in the short term. However, if a pullback from this level happens afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to see an upward movement in the direction of a support at 1.1145 – 1.1168.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a flat in progress, which could turn out into a “Flag” pattern. Therefore, it’s likely that bears are going to taste the next support at 1.1032 during the day. At the same time, if we see a pullback from here, bulls will have a reason to reach a resistance at 1.1130 – 1.1145 later on.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9522

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "flag" calling bears to break the last low
7/8/2016

There’s a “Flag”, which points to a possible achievement of the nearest support at 1.2853 in the short term. So, it seems like we’re going to have a new low very soon. The price is likely going to falling down until any reversal pattern arrives. However, if we finally get a reversal pattern, we should keep an eye on the nearest resistance at 1.3015 – 1.3116.

We’ve got a local flat in a form of a “Flag”. The price is trying to break its lower side, so bears are likely going to achieve the nearest support at 1.2795 during the day. Considering a possible pullback from this level, an upward correction becomes possible afterwards.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9523

 

[riki143]

US NFP: forecasts of the major banks
7/8/2016

Barclays: NFP will rise by 175K, the unemployment rate will remain unchanged at 4.7%. Average hourly earnings will gain 0.2% m/m (as expected).

TD: NFP will rise by 175K, the unemployment rate will rise from 4.7% to 4.8%, because of the increase in the labor force. Average hourly earnings will gain 0.2% m/m (as expected).

Goldman: NFP will rise by 210K, the unemployment rate will rise from 4.7% to 4.8%.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch: NFP will rise by 180K. In case of the weak NFP, sell CAD/JPY and NZD/JPY as the market’s risk sentiment will significantly worsen. In case of good NFP, buy USD/CAD and USD/CHF. The best strategy into the release is to sell Canadian dollar.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9524

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: flat between two "Windows"
7/8/2016

There’s a “Shooting Star” on the 21 Moving Average, so the market is likely going to test the nearest lower “Window” once again. If the price faces a support here, there’ll be an opportunity to see a deeper bullish correction towards the middle of the huge black candle. As we can see on the Daily chart, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. However, bulls are probably going to reach the nearest resistance line in the short term, which can easily reverse the price movement in the direction of the last low.

We’ve got a confirmed “High Wave” on the upper side of the current “Window”. Also, the price has got a support by the 34 Moving Average. Therefore, bears are likely going to achieve the nearest support by the “Inverted Hammer” pattern at the local low.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9525

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: new minimum is coming soon because of "Three Methods"
7/8/2016

The bearish trend is still on the table. We’ve got a “Three Methods” pattern , so the market is likely going to decline towards the nearest support level. As we can see on the Daily chart, the last candles are bearish, which means we haven’t got any reversal bullish pattern so far. Therefore, the pair is probably going to achieve the lower “Window” soon.

There’s a strong resistance by the 21 Moving Average. Also, we’ve got a “Hammer” at the local low, which has been confirmed enough. So, the market is likely going to test the 21 Moving Average once again during the day. If a pullback from this line happens later on, there’ll be an opportunity to have a new low shortly.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9526

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD may withdraw from the short-flat
7/8/2016

Price briefly is in the hallway between the levels of 1/8 (1.1047) and 3/8 (1.1169). Consolidation below STH4 and the level of 2/8 (1.1108) can be regarded as a signal for the continuation of the bearish trend. The target is a key level 0/8 (1.0986). About such a scenario also indicates falling STH4, and a fall could happen from the current position. However, the breakdown STH4 can not be excluded, whereby the price will continue to move in the channel and reach the level of 3/8.

Trade recommendation:

Sell – 1.1075; sl – 1.1130; tp – 1.0980.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/9530/EURUSDH4(12).png[/URL

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY could break the mark of 100.00
7/8/2016

Paar fixed again below STH4. It should be noted that the distance between STH4 and STD1 is small, therefore it is possible the continuation of the bearish trend. As a resistance there is the level of 1/8 (101.56), the breakdown of which will lead to a correction to the level of 2/8 (103.13). This scenario is unlikely, since, in addition to the level of 0/8 (100.00) no preconditions for growth. It is advisable to wait for the breakdown 0/8, after which the target for the bears will be the level at -1/8 (98.43).

Trade recommendation:

Sell – 99.55; tp – 98.50; sl – 100.10.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9527

 

[riki143]

EUR/NZD approached sell target 1.5200
7/8/2016

EUR/NZD approached sell target 1.5200
Next sell target - 1.5000
EUR/NZD continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave (v), which is a part of impulse 3 of the intermediate downward impulse wave (3) from the start of May. The pair earlier reversed down from the resistance zone located between the resistance level 1.5600 and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the earlier sharp downward impulse from June. The downward reversal from this resistance zone started the active minor impulse wave (v).

EUR/NZD is currently approaching the support level 1.5200 (previous sell target set for this currency pair). If the price breaks below 1.5200 - EUR/NZD can then fall further to the next sell target at 1.5000.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9528[/URL[

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY reversed from resistance zone
7/8/2016

USD/JPY reversed from resistance zone
Next sell target - 100.00
USD/JPY recently reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 103.30 (former support level which stopped the previous intermediate impulse wave (1) in June, as can be seen below) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the earlier minor impulse wave 1 from the end of wave (2). The downward reversal form this resistance zone accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3), which belongs to the primary impulse wave ③ from May.

USD/JPY is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the round support level 100.00 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward 99.00 (low of the previous impulse wave 1).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9529

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: outlook for July 11-17
7/8/2016

The past week wasn’t bright for Australia. The Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash interest rate unchanged at 1.75%, but the market is seeing a 60% chance of a rate cut at the next meeting in August. The recent economic data from Australia were disappointing: building approvals, trade balance and retail sales came out worse than expected. In addition, the results of Australian parliamentary elections brought uncertainty, and S&P cut the nation’s sovereign outlook to negative from stable.

Another negative factor for Australian dollar is that the overall market risk sentiment looks fragile. Traders still have serious concerns about the state of global economy. The market players will closely watch Chinese statistics next week: inflation figures will be released ahead of the trading week and followed by trade balance on Wednesday and GDP and industrial production on Friday. Reduction in China’s exports/import and economic growth will be painful for riskier assets like Aussie, while better data, on the contrary, will hold the bears. In Australia itself watch labor market figures on Thursday.

Better-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls for June improved the market’s risk sentiment and allowed Australian dollar to gain versus the US currency. Note, however, that there’s resistance in the 0.7595/0.7600 area – this is the resistance line connecting April and June highs. Further resistance will be at 0.7700. Support is at 0.7440, 0.7385 and 0.7300.

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9535

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: outlook for July 11-17


USD/JPY weakened on the back of lower US yields and the fact that investors have pushed back their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s rate hike. The general downtrend is still in place, although the expectations of the Bank of Japan easing policy at the end of this month help the pair to get some support. The BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that the central bank will add more easing if needed to achieve its 2% inflation target.

Data from Japan kept getting worse confirming the necessity of additional monetary stimulus: average cash earnings fell by 0.2% declining for the first time since June 2015, while strong yen made the nation’s current account surplus narrow.

On Sunday there will be elections in the upper house of Japanese parliament. As long as the ruling coalition wins, Abenomics – the policy of stimulus named after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe – will continue. Abe’s win is the consensus forecast. Note, however, that the impact of the election will likely be limited. The market’s attention will be on Brexit, the outlook of US monetary policy and China's economic prospects. Whether Japanese yen will be used as a safe haven currency will largely depend on Chinese statistics due next week, mainly on Wednesday and Friday.

Mixed, but still solid US Nonfarm Payrolls report adds support to the pair. The key support is at 100.00 ahead of 99.50 and 99.00 (post-Brexit minimum). Above resistance at 101.50 the pair could gain to 102.50 and even 103.50. Note, however, that the longer term bearish trend is still strong and below 99.00 USD/JPY won’t have much of support until 95.00. The question is whether Japanese monetary authorities will allow the pair to come this low.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9534

 

[riki143]

US dollar: outlook for July 11-17

US Nonfarm Payrolls added 287K in June, beating the forecasts of 175K increase. May growth, however, has revised to the downside, from 38K to 11K. This made 3-month average at 147K. The unemployment rate increased more than expected (from 4.7% to 4.9%), while the monthly growth of average hourly earnings – an important measure of inflation – missed the expectations slowing down from 0.2% to 0.1%. Still though annual wage growth is at its highest since the Great Recession.

All in all, US data were mixed, but mostly positive. Before the release the futures market wasn’t pricing in a rate hike until February 2019. The Federal Reserve will likely remain on hold in the coming months because of external risks created by Brexit. Yet, as concerns about American labor market disappear, traders may start thinking that the Fed may raise rates a bit earlier than in 2019. This should help the US dollar against the major currencies, especially those of them, whose central banks may further ease monetary policy.

At the beginning of the next week pay attention to the speeches of the Federal Reserve’s members George on Monday and Bullard on Tuesday – these will be the first comments of the US central bank after the fresh NFP figures. Also watch American producer prices on Thursday and consumer prices, retails sales and consumer sentiment on Friday. These figures will allow the market to update its view on the US economic outlook and the Fed’s interest rates.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9531

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: outlook for July 11-17

EUR/USD spend the most part of the past week under pressure, though finding support as the European Central Bank still hasn’t sent a strong signal that it will further ease monetary policy.

In the meantime, the news flow from the euro area is very concerning. After the Brexit vote Italian bank crisis became bigger: more capital went out of the sector, so that the lenders are now in desperate need of financial rescue. Italian bank stocks are down about 50% or more this year. Italy’s Prime Minister Matteo Renzi wants to help the national banks with a state bailout, but European Union authorities are against that as it contradicts the new rules of the EU. As a result, there’s a risk that the situation in Italy will trigger another euro area wide crisis.

The European finance ministers will meet on Monday to decide whether to fine Spain and Portugal for missing the budget targets. Apart from this the euro area’s economic calendar looks very light with only industrial production on Wednesday and final inflation on Friday having some significance.

In the past week EUR/USD was trading around 100-day MA in the 1.1100 area. Next week we expect the single currency to come under more pressure and slide towards 1.0920. Next support will be at 1.0815/00. Resistance is at 1.1200.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9532

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: outlook for July 11-17

British pound remained affected by the consequences of the Brexit vote. During the past week 3 British commercial property funds suspended trading, because too many investors wanted to exit the funds – this is a clear sign that the market players are nervous.

On Tuesday the Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carney will testify on inflation and the economic outlook before the Parliament's Treasury Committee. On Thursday there will be a meeting of British central bank and on Friday we’ll hear more comments from Carney.

Earlier Carney said that British economy might need additional monetary stimulus this summer. The consensus forecast is that British central bank will leave monetary policy unchanged in July assessing situation for a potential move in August. The market’ however, has largely priced in rate cuts in both July and in August as well as potential resumption of quantitative easing. As a result, the Bank of England has to deliver much easing to send the pound lower.

At the same time, taking into account the fact that GBP/USD collapsed below the Brexit vote lows and fell below the important 1.30, long positions remain too risky. One has to remember that Britain is going through unchartered waters, so pound may be technically drawn to 1.25.

Resistance is at 1.3120, 1,3300 and 1.3500 in the short term with the key longer-term obstacle at 1.3850. Support is at 1.1790 ahead of 1.2665.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9533

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY after Abe's victory: Heading up to 105.00?
7/12/2016

Monday in Asia was very moved in terms of financial markets, as the current Japanese PM Shinzo Abe secured a majority in the upper house and that could strengthen the so-called “Abenomics”, adding more stimulus to the national economy. After the news, Nikkei index rose more than 4% approximately, helping to give fresh bearish momentum to the JPY currency against others and it contributes to the Nippon exporters. Nothing has been said about exact days for the new measures to be done, but Abe already ordered to its Financial minister to prepare them.

The technical picture for USD/JPY at H1 chart is very bullish, as the pair did a consolidation above the 200-SMA and its looking to test the resistance level of 103.29, where a bearish trend line projected from May 31th highs could add pressure to the downside. If the USD/JPY achieves to break it, then we can expect a rally to the 104.00 psychological zone.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9551