Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

GBP/CAD falling inside minor C-wave
6/6/2016

-GBP/CAD falling inside minor C-wave
-Next sell target - 1.8500

GBP/CAD continues to fall inside the minor C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (B), which started earlier - when the pair reversed down with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.9200 (top of the previous minor correction 4 from March), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp downward impulse from January.

GBP/CAD is likely to fall further toward the next sell target at the support level 1.8500 (low of the previous minor correction (ii) and the target price calculated for the termination of the active impulse wave C).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9147

 

[riki143]

GBP/CHF broke daily up channel
6/6/2016

-GBP/CHF broke daily up channel
-Next sell target - 1.4000

GBP/CHF continues to fall – after the earlier breakout of the support trendline of the daily up channel from April. The breakout of this up channel is expected to accelerate the (c)-wave of the active minor corrective wave 2 – which started recently - when the price reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.4600, upper daily Bollinger Band and the resistance trendline of the recently broken daily up channel from April (as can be seen from the daily GBP/CHF chart below).

GBP/CHF is expected to fall further toward the next sell target at the round support level 1.4000 (forecast price calculated for the termination of the active ABC correction 2).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9148

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "Harami" has kicked off the bullish correction
6/6/2016

There’s a “High Wave” at the last low, which has been confirmed enough. Therefore, the market is likely going to get a resistance on the nearest “Window”. If so, bears will probably try to deliver a new low afterwards. As we can see on the Daily chart, the “Window” could act as a resistance as well. Because of we haven’t got any reversal pattern so far, bears are still all around.

The price has found a lodgement under the last “Window”, but we have a “Hammer” at the local low. Considering a “Three Methods” pattern, the pair is likely going to get a resistance on the 21 Moving Average. If we see a pullback from this line, bears will probably continue their rally.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9149

 

[riki143]

US dollar: outlook for June 6-10
6/6/2016

The US dollar index collapsed from 95.50 to more than 3-week low below 94.00 on Friday. Nonfarm payrolls report turned out to be a big disappointment for the market: American economy gained only 38K jobs in May versus 160K expected, while April reading was also revised to the downside. Although the unemployment rate declined from 5.0% to 4.7%, the expectations for the Federal Reserve’s rate hike in the coming months went sharply down. Traders now see only a 4% chance of an increase in June and 30% possibility of an increase in July.

The market players await the speech of the Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen later on Monday to see whether she keeps the door open for a July rate hike.

All in all, the drop in the rate hike expectations is surely a negative factor for the US dollar, but if Yellen sounds more optimistic, that should give the greenback support.

Other important economic releases due this week include job openings figures and crude oil inventories on Wednesday, unemployment claims on Thursday and consumer sentiment on Friday.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9150

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: outlook for June 6-10
6/6/2016

EUR/USD jumped to 3-week high above 1.1370 on Friday on weaker-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls report.

The 200-day MA at 1.1100 and the lower border of the uptrend channel, which has been in place since November, turned out to be a good support for the pair. However, further upside of the pair will be more difficult. Resistance lies at 1.1376 (February high), 1.1465 (April 12 high, monthly highs of 2015) and 1.1520 (declining 100-week MA, top of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud).

Among the negative factors for the pair in the coming week we should cite loose policy of the European Central Bank – the ECB will start purchases of corporate debt on June 8 and giving new ultra-cheap loans to banks on June 22 – and worries that Britain may leave the European Union.

The ability of the pair to expand last week’s advance will depend on what the US Federal Reserve’s Chairwoman Janet Yellen says on Monday or, in other words, on the market’s perception of the US rate hike timing. As for the European news, pay attention to German industrial production on Tuesday, the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi on Thursday and comments of German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann on Friday.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9151

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: outlook for June 6-10
6/6/2016

GBP/USD fell from the levels above 1.4700 to 1.4350. British pound was hit by a renewed wave of concerns that Britain will leave the European Union. The latest opinion polls show that 43% of voters want the nation out of the EU, while 40% say they support the campaign to keep the UK in the union.

The pair was supported by the 100-day MA. The 55-day MA has recently moved above this line and the daily Ichimoku Cloud is bullish. These are the signs that the market players are still buying sterling as the bears try to approach 1.4300. At the same time, the pair is very unlikely to overcome the 200-day MA just above 1.4700 before the Brexit referendum, which will take place on June 23. As a result, the odds are that we’ll see GBP/USD trading sideways ahead of this event. The bias should be to the downside.

As for this week’s economic calendar for the British currency, watch manufacturing production on Wednesday, goods trade balance on Thursday and consumer inflation expectations on Friday. From the US dollar side of things, the speech of the Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen later on Monday will determine the market’s expectations for the US rates and, consequently, demand for USD.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9152

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: outlook for June 6-10
6/6/2016

USD/JPY made a sharp fall last week as it collapsed from 111.45 to the 106.50 area (38.2% Fibonacci of 2011-2015 advance). There were 3 drivers of this move: delay of sales tax hike in Japan to October 2019, the market’s risk aversion and weak US nonfarm payrolls report.

There’s a 200-week MA at 106.00, the line is still sloped to the upside and should provide some support. Below that the levels to watch will be 105.50 and 104.87 (weekly pivot). Note that closer to 105.00 the market will be much more cautious about the risk of monetary intervention from Japan aimed at not letting USD/JPY go much lower.

Japan will release current account data and final GDP reading for Q1 on Wednesday. Also watch economy watchers’ sentiment and core machinery orders on Thursday and tertiary industry activity on Friday.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9153

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: A "Brexit range" on the way?
6/7/2016

Recent Brexit referendum's headlines added more bearish momentum to the GBP pairs, because during the last weekend, according with Observer and Opinium polls, the odds are favoring with three points to the “Leave” option (43%), against the “Remain”, which has 40%, while another polls released by ITV and TNS are giving to the “Leave” a lead of four and two points respectively. Current situation is telling us about the favoritism that is gaining the Brexit and with that into perspective, plus the uncertainty which that produces, Sterling's uptrend will be limited before the referendum takes place.

In a technical outlook for GBP/USD, with that news mentioned above, it has been established a “Brexit range” between the 1.4710 and 1.4350 area, where the Cable will be moving on during the days approximately. After the Monday's Asia opening, pair posted another low around the 1.4351 level, where later it performed a rebound in an attempt to fill the bearish gap left during the weekend. 50-SMA is pointing to the downside and the 200 simple moving average, which is very close to the bearish gap, could act as dynamic resistance. A breakout below the 1.4350 should give more pressure on the Cable toward the 1.4200 psychological level in a first degree.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9155

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "V-Top" points to a correction
6/7/2016

The price has faced a resistance at 1.1357, so we’ve got a “V-Top” pattern at the last top. Therefore, bears are likely going to reach a support at 1.1326 – 1.1292. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be a chance to see a bullish movement towards a resistance at 1.1419 – 1.1446.

There’s a flat in progress, which brought two “V-Tops” in a row. So, the market is likely going to decline towards the 34 Moving Average. If this line stops bears, the pair will probably start rising again.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9158

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bulls faced the "Thorn"
6/7/2016

The pair was rising dramatically fast until bulls faced a resistance at 1.4658. Previously, a “Triple Bottom” was formed, which has been confirmed. However, the price is likely going to get a support at 1.4441. If so, an upward movement becomes possible.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the last flat was finally ended by the extremely fast bullish movement. Then a “Thorn” arrived, so the price reached a support at 1.4513. Therefore, the market is likely going to achieve the next support at 1.4441 in the short term.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9159

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD overview ahead RBNZ interest rate decision
6/8/2016

Later today after the U.S session at 21:00 GMT will be released the RBNZ monetary & rate Statement, where it's expected to hold the 2.25% which hasn't been changed since March 9th (decreased from 2.50% to 2.25%). The topics that are still concerning to the officials remain the same: weak economic conditions in China, the global concerns about the world's economy and low import prices, which has the inflation into a weakness bias. Latest monetary statement stated that further easing can happen in order to reach the inflation targets.

Around 23:00 GMT, RBNZ is expected to hold a press conference, where possibly the NZD could have a more clear road to follow in charts. The technical picture for NZD/USD at H4 is showing a bullish consolidation above the 200 SMA and a support can be found at the 0.6907 level. If RBNZ monetary policy statement is hawkish, pair could test the resistance zone of 0.7044, but dovish words from RBNZ's officials could give a bear's stampede to the Kiwi, possibly breaking the support zone of 0.6907, toward the 0.6800 psychological level.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9166

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Pennant" boosts bulls to deliver a new high
6/8/2016

The price has faced a resistance at 1.1385, which brought a flat into the market. Because of there isn’t any reversal pattern, bulls are likely going to move on towards the next resistance at 1.1419 – 1.1446. If a pullback from this area happens, a downward correction becomes possible, so we should keep an eye on a support at 1.1357.

There’s a consolidation between a support at 1.1335 and a resistance at 1.1385. Also, we’ve got a possible “Pennant” pattern, so the pair is likely going to get a resistance at 1.1419 in the short term. Then, bears will probably try to come back to the game, but only if a pullback from the resistance happens.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9169

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: despite of "Thorn" bulls are still in the game
6/8/2016

The price was rising until bulls faced a resistance at 1.4662, which brought a “Thorn” pattern, so the pair came back to a support at 1.4545. Therefore, the market is likely going to get a resistance at 1.4658 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity for a bearish movement towards a support at 1.4545 – 1.4513.

We’ve got a flat in progress, which turns out into a “Pennant” pattern, so the market is likely going to get a resistance at 1.4613 – 1.4662. If buyers be stopped somewhere in here, a downward movement becomes possible.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9170

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: consolidation between two "Engulfing" patterns
6/8/2016

We’ve got a bearish “Harami” at the local high, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed enough. However, there’s also a bullish “Harami”, which is conversely has a confirmation. Therefore, the market is likely going to rise until any reversal pattern arrives. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “Doji” at the last high, but its confirmation hasn’t formed yet, so today’s candle will have a chance to be white.

There’s an “Engulfing Bullish” on the 21 Moving Average, which has confirmed the previously formed support level. At the same time, we’ve got an “Engulfing Bearish” near the two small “Windows”, so the current intraday flat is likely going to be continued.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9171

 

[riki143]

Forex trading plan for June 9
6/8/2016

After some consolidation on Monday and Tuesday US dollar index resumed decline falling below 93.50. American currency is under pressure as the expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the coming months declined. Brent oil rose above $52 a barrel for the first time since October 2015.

The main bullish factor for oil are supply disruption in Nigeria, decline in the US inventories (API version) and expected record-high summer gasoline demand. The current situation is also bullish for gold: XAU/USD rose to $1264.25 and may extend gains to $1280.

EUR/USD rose above 1.1400 even as the ECB started buying corporate bonds (a form of stimulus) as traders were broadly selling the US dollar. Above the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud at 1.1405 the next target will lie at 1.1465 ahead of 1.1500. Support is at 1.1355 and 1.1315. The ECB President Mario Draghi will speak at 07:00 GMT, and we’ll see whether he tries to discourage the euro bulls.

GBP/USD was trading on the upside. British manufacturing and industrial production showed impressive gains in April of more than 2%. However, the pair currently finds itself in the middle of the sideways range between 1.4700 and 1.4350. We expect this range to hold in the coming days as the uncertainty created by the upcoming Brexit referendum, which will take place on June 23, will continue capping the pound.

USD/JPY returned down to support at 106.80/55. These support levels will determine the short-term picture for the pair: If they give way, the target will lie at 106.00; if they hold, we will see a recovery, though limited by resistance at 108.90.

AUD/USD met resistance at 0.7480 (50-day MA). Further resistance is at 0.7510. and 0.7570. China's imports were higher-than-expected in May, and that’s good because China is Australia’s main trading partner. Note that the pair looks overbought in the short-term. Support is located at 0.7437 and 0.7375.

NZD/USD is awaiting results of the Reserve bank of New Zealand’s meeting later on Wednesday. The RBNZ is expected to keep official cash rate at 2.25%, though earlier analysts were looking for a cut to 2%. Even if there is no cut, the central bank may do dovish comments. We expect high volatility. Note that NZD/USD is close to a strong resistance at 0.7050 (April, May highs). A break of this level will open the way up to 0.7200. Support is in the 0.6900 area ahead of 0.6850.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9176

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD & Draghi's speech from Brussels: Will the upside be limited?
6/9/2016

Today at 07:00 GMT the ECB's president Mario Draghi will speak at Brussels Economic Forum and investors will be aware of the tone that the speech will have, after Draghi decided to keep unchanged the interest rates for June and the European Central Bank started to buy corporate bonds, in an effort to revive the economic growth in Eurozone. Nothing great is expected in today Draghi's words, as it's expected that he still ask to governments to do more in favor of the region's growth.

However, as we saw during last ECB press conference held during last week, market could see some volatility. The H4 chart of EUR/USD shows that the pair is facing a strong resistance around the 1.1415 level and we highlighted with yellow color the move that last Draghi's speech produced on the major pair. A hawkish-than-expected speech will push the EUR/USD to break the 1.1415 zone, toward next resistance at the 1.1484 level, while a dovish or “nothing new” speech from Draghi could trigger a pullback to test the support level of 1.1342, which is very close to the 200 SMA.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9177

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Pennant" led to the new high, but bulls are so tired
6/9/2016

The price has found a resistance at 1.1419, so bears are ready to return into the market. The main target for a coming correction is a support at 1.1372 – 1.1357. If a pullback from this area happens, bulls will probably try to achieve a resistance at 1.1446 – 1.1479.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the movement in a range of the last “Pennant” was finally ended by the fast bullish rally. However, the price faced a resistance at 1.1419 afterwards, which entered the market into a consolidation phase. So, the pair is likely going to decline towards a support on the 34 Moving Average, which is strong enough to reverse the price movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.1446.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9180

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bulls and bears are fighting in the "Triangle"
6/9/2016

The pair has been moving in a range of the current “Triangle” pattern. It’s likely that the market is going to get a support at 1.4384 – 1.4342. If we see a pullback somewhere from here, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.4462 – 1.4510.

There’s a flat in progress, which is supported by the Moving Average lines. Therefore, the market is likely going to test a resistance at 1.4581. Considering a possible pullback from this level, bears are probably going to reach a support at 1.4462 afterwards.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9181

 

[riki143]

Forex trading plan for June 10
6/9/2016

There was at last a correction of the markets on Thursday: Brent oil returned from 52.80 to 51.80 as traders took profit on their bullish positions, while the US dollar index recovered from 93.50 to 94.00. American unemployment claims came out better than expected. Preliminary consumer sentiment data for June is due at 14:00 GMT om Friday. The market’s risk appetite declined. Global stocks declined for the first time in 6 days. One of the reasons is the upcoming Brexit referendum, which will take place on June 23. There was also news that billionaire investor George Soros sold stocks and bought gold preparing for difficult times for the world’s economy.

Japanese yen strengthened as traders increased demand for the safe haven assets. USD/JPY declined, but is still trying to stick to 106.55. A daily close below this mark will open the way down to 106.00 (200-week MA) and 105.55 (May low). All in all, 200-week MA should slow down the pair’s decline. Resistance is at 107.65 and 108.90. For EUR/JPY a close below 120.80 will be a long-term bearish signal. AUD/USD recoiled down from the 55-day MA in the 0.7475 and may be subject to a deeper correction down (targets: 0.7400, 0.7380, 0.7300).

EUR/USD erased the work of the bulls during the past several days and fell to this week’s low at 1.1305. The ECB's President Mario Draghi has reiterated the need to advance in structural reforms in the euro region and underlined that the central bank will not allow consumer prices to remain below target for longer than is avoidable. We may see more of correction down with the pair visiting 1.1215. Resistance is at 1.1415 and 1.1465. German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann will speak at 07:00 GMT. GBP/USD keeps trading in a broad range between 1.4700 and 1.4350. We expect the pair to continue fluctuating around 1.4500.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9189

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: Uncertainty ahead Brexit referendum still weighs on moves
6/13/2016

We're one week ahead approximately of Brexit referendum, which will take in place on June 23th, and it seems the odds are favoring to the “Leave” option, according to the most recent polls released by media and independent agencies. The latest headline comes from a poll published during the Friday's US session by ORB Independent, which favors the Brexit with 55% of preference, against a 45% which wants to stay at European Union. After the poll was released, GBP/USD had a decline of more than 100 pips, closing the week at 1.4253, which is telling us that the Brexit sentiment is a strong catalyst that drives the pair nowadays.

The technical picture at H4 chart is calling for a possible double cycle development on the Cable, as it reached the 100% Fibonacci extension (1.4297) from the May 3th highs (1.4685), related with the May 16th lows (1.4331) and May 26th highs (1.4738). However, pair is still doing declines below the 100%, but it hasn't achieved in break the 1.4193 level yet. If GBP/USD does a rebound at current area, then it could test the 1.4392 in the near term, while a breakout below 1.4193, will open the doors for a fall toward 1.4025 level (161.8% Fibonacci extension).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9201