Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

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Market News
12 May 2014,

CBI: BoE to hike rates in Q1 2015

According to the latest Confederation of British Industry report, the Bank of England will likely raise interest rates in Q1 2015.

Confederation’s 2014 UK growth forecast was revised up from 2.7% to 3.0%. As for 2015, the economy is expected to grow by 2.7% vs. previously forecasted 2.5%.

However the CBI warned that political uncertainty remained “a major risk to the recovery” (they mean the elections coming in May 2015):

“Businesses recognize the realities of election time but want all parties to ensure their policies make a positive difference. Politicians must be wary of the risk of headline-grabbing policies that weaken investment, opportunity and jobs”.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1244

 

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Market News

May 12: American Session

Tatiana Norkina, analyst at FBS

U.S. dollar index is consolidating around the 79.90 mark today which it reached on Friday, but the market is expecting a report on past month's administration of the budget. So, volatility increase is possible. Major stock indexes in America are showing steady growth today. Thus, DJIA has set new highs for the past few years, rising to the 16690.50 figure (+0.55 %). S&P500 is adding about 0.73%.

It is relatively calm in the currency markets. The EUR/USD pair is consolidating in the 1.3750-1.3770 range. USD/CHF is in the sideways trend as well - the bulls can not break through 0.8780. The GBP/USD currency pair was correcting to the 1.6900 figure, but the bears have stepped up the pressure and lowered the rate to 1.6870. The Dollar is quite confident against the Japanese Yen: USD/JPY has grown to the 102.16 figure, but it may stumble upon a powerful resistance yet in the 102.20-102.25 area.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1245

 

[riki143]

Market News

May 13: Asian session

Asian stock markets are mostly trading in the positive zone with MSCI Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan adding 1% and Japanese Nikkei 225 index adding almost 2%. Indian shares also rose by 2%, boosted by exit polls predicting India's business-friendly opposition party would win the elections. The markets showed limited reaction to industrial production and retail sales data from China, which came out almost in line with forecasts.

USD/JPY pair extends the upside for a third day in a row, testing 102.30. AUD/USD failed to rise above the $0.9400 mark for now, rolling back to $0.9340. NZD/USD consolidates around $0.8620. EUR/USD and GBP/USD were almost unchanged in the Asian session. Markets are waiting for the EZ and German ZEW indices releases.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1246

 

[riki143]

Market News

CFTC: USD shorts increased

Here are the essentials of the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on May 9 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for a week ended on May 6. According to the report, large traders and speculators increased their short USD positions from $0.7 billion on April 29 to $2 billion on May 6. The overall USD position is now at the lowest level of the year.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1247

 

[riki143]

Market News

May 13th: American session

Tatiana Norkina , an analyst at FBS

The U.S. dollar strengthened before the advent of European statistics today. According to the report of the Centre for European Economic Research economic expectations in Europe fell to 55.2 points in the past month, while analysts expected growth to 63.5. However, the appearance of weak data on U.S. retail sales (0.1 % vs. 0.4%) weighed on the dollar index, which now adds only 0.17 %. However, the positive trend continues. U.S. stock indexes grow as well. So,

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http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1248

 

[riki143]

Market News

May 14: Asian session

Asian stock markets rose with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index adding 0.7% in the session. Commodity currencies are in demand today. AUD/USD pushed higher, testing the $0.9400 resistance to the upside. NZD/USD also is trading in the positive zone, but holds below the yesterday’s high of $0.8670. New Zealand retail sales growth slowed to 0.7%. RBNZ’s Wheeler said on press-conference that rate rises will help damp the house price inflation.

EUR/USD stabilized above the 5-week low, finding support at $1.3700. However, the euro remains weak against the other major currencies following the last week’s ECB meeting.

GBP/USD bounced from the daily lows around $1.6820 to $1.6870. Markets wait for the UK labor market data (8:30 GMT) and for the BoE Inflation Report and Carney speech (9:30 GMT).

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1249

 

[riki143]

Market News
14 May 2014

GBP/USD down on labor data

UK labor market data came out mixed. Unemployment rate fell from 6.9% to 6.8% in line with forecasts, but the jobless claims contracted less than expected (-25K vs. expected -30.7K). Weak wage growth remains a matter of concern for the markets. GBP/USD came under a selling pressure right after the release.

The markets now await the BoE Inflation Report and Marc Carney’s speech at 9:30 GMT.

Chart. H1 GBP/USD

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http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1250

 

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Market News

May 15: Asian session

Asian shares fell as a stronger yen weighed on Japanese shares and after US equity indices dropped from the record highs. Nikkei 225 is down by about 1%. MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined by 0.3%.

USD/JPY dipped to 101.66, but then recovered to the opening level of 101.87. US 10-year Treasury yields fell to the 6-month low yesterday. Japanese GDP product expanded at the fastest pace in 2 1/2 years (+1.5%) reducing the odds for additional Bank of Japan easing.

AUD/USD pulled down to $0.9375 after having tested $0.9410 yesterday. Gold also consolidates, following the yesterday’s bullish move. Meanwhile, NZD/USD extends the upside, testing $0.8685. New Zealand annual budget was released today and showed the government sees a lot of progress in the economy in recent years.

EUR/USD is trading in the $1.3715 area. French economy stagnated in Q1, while German economic growth was slightly better than expected (+0.8%). GBP/USD edged up a bit to $1.6770 after yesterday’s decline.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1252

 

[riki143]

Market News

Key option levels (May 15)

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3675/80 (large), $1.3700/10 (large), $1.3720 (large), $1.3750 (large large), $1.3775, $1.3800 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.6680/85 (large), $1.6750 (large), $1.6775, $1.6800;

USD/JPY: 101.15/20 (large), 101.50 (large), 101.60 (large), 101.80 (large), 102.00 (large), 102.35 (large), 102.50/55 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.9355 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.0825 (large), 1.0845/50 (large), 1.0875 (large), 1.1000 (large).

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1254

 

[riki143]

Market News
15 May 2014

Germany grows, France stagnates

Today’s data showed the divergence between French and German economies keeps on growing. German economic growth accelerated more than forecasted in the first quarter, helping the euro zone’s economy to offset the unexpected stagnation in France.

German GDP rose by 0.8% in Q1 vs. 0.4% growth in Q4 2013, statistics shows, while the economists expected a 0.7% growth. Earlier data showed France, the euro zone’s second largest economy, showed a zero GDP growth in Q1 after growing by 0.2% in Q4.

“The outlook for the German economy remains good,” UniCredit economists say. “There is a lot of pent-up demand in investment and with low inflation and growing wages we have the perfect environment for strong private demand.”

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1255

 

[riki143]

Market News

May 16: Asian session

Asian stock markets declined on Friday, following the yesterday’s US and European markets losses. Stocks closed weak overnight amid some disappointing earnings and economic reports. Ukraine woes and weaker commodity prices add to the decline.

Currency markets were slow in the Asian session. USD/JPY dipped to 101.30 yesterday, but, as expected, found support there and recovered another 20 pips. AUD/USD dipped to $0.9330 yesterday, but recovered into the $0.9355 area today, while NZD/USD consolidates in the positive zone around $0.8660.

EUR/USD consolidates slightly above the $1.3700 mark after having dipped to $1.3650 yesterday. GBP/USD hovers slightly below the $1.6800 mark . Yesterday the cable’s selloff found support at $1.6730.

Friday’s economic calendar is light. The volatility may increase later in the day - US will release building permits, housing starts and consumer sentiment data later in the day.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1260

 

[riki143]

Market News
16 May 2014

China banks: bad loans rise

Chinese banks had the biggest quarterly increase in bad loans since 2005 as defaults rise because of the slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.

According to data released by the China Banking Regulatory Commission yesterday, the nonperforming loans rose by 54 billion yuan ($8.7 billion) in the 3 months to 646.1 billion yuan, the highest level since September 2008. Bad loans accounted for 1.04% of total lending, up from 1% in the previous quarter.

“Asset quality is now the biggest overhang on the banking sector,” analysts at Masterlink Securities Corp. say. “The government’s reluctance to use stimulus and ease monetary policy has made it difficult for many borrowers to repay debt.”

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1261

 

[riki143]

Market News

Key option levels (May 16)

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).
Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3725 (large), $1.3745/55 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.6680 (large);

USD/JPY: 101.35/45 (large), 102.20 (large), 102.50 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.9300 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.0800 (large), 1.0850 (large), 1.0890/0900 (large), 1.0925/35 (large).

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1262

 

[riki143]

Market News

May 19-23: upcoming events

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1263

 

[riki143]

Market News

May 16: American Session

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst



Dollar slightly reacted to mixed U.S. data. So, after the appearance of a fairly strong statistics on the number of building permits issued (1.08 million vs. 1.01 million), the index of American suddenly began to fall. A little later, index of consumer sentiment of Michigan University was published (only 81.8, vs. 84.5). It has a little strengthened U.S. dollar unexpectedly, which is trading slightly above the figure of 80.00, but still in the red zone, losing about 0.03%. Stock markets also show uncertain opening. DJIA has gone into the red, losing 0.01% and the S&P is at zero mark, but with a tendency to strengthen.

Most currency pairs today is consolidating in narrow ranges. The EUR/USD pair is currently fixed on the figure of 1.3700 after testing 1.3690 support area. Currency pair USD/CHF holds above 0.8900 support. GBP/USD pair has recovered to the level of 1.6840, and then adjusted at 1.6820 mark. The pair USD/JPY holds above 101.40.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1264

 

[riki143]

Market News

May 19: Asian session

Asian stock markets were down on Monday, as concerns about slower growth in China pressure the risk appetite. MSCI Asia-Pacific index outside Japan lost 0.3% in the session.

Currency market started the week in a quiet mode with the major currency pairs trading range bound on the Friday’s US session levels. USD/JPY edged down a bit to 101.40, while the Nikkei 225 index remains almost flat. Core machinery orders in Japan came surprisingly strong, confirming the economic recovery is on the way.

AUD/USD weakened from the daily high of $0.9375 into the $0.0350 area. The next event to watch in Australia will be the RBA meeting minutes on Tuesday – there shouldn’t be much surprises, though. NZD/USD hovers in the middle of the $0.8655/25 sideways range.

EUR/USD is trading in the $1.3700 area, while GBP/USD edged up to $1.6830.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1265

 

[riki143]

Market News
19 May 2014

CFTC: USD positions turned long

Here are the essentials of the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on May 16 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for a week ended on May 13.

According to the report, large speculators turned bullish on the US dollar, with net longs climbing to the highest in more than two months. The value of the dollar's net long position was $4.51 billion, up from short contracts totalling $2.03 billion the previous week. This week's long position came after 4 straight weeks of shorts. It's also important to note that speculators turned net short the euro.

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1266

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trade signals for May 19

Provided by Danske Bank

EUR/USD: Short at 1.3712 with a target of 1.3552 and a stop at 1.3777

USD/JPY: Short at 101.90 with a target of 100.76 and a stop at 102.45

GBP/USD: Short at 1.6830 with a target of 1.6657 and a stop at 1.6910

USD/CHF: Long at 0.8925 with a target of 0.9038 and a stop at 0.8875

AUD/USD: Long at 0.9322 with a target of 0.9461 and a stop at 0.9322

USD/CAD: Buy at 1.0858 with a target of 1.0961 and a stop at 1.0808

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/1504

 

[riki143]

Market News

May 19th: American session

Tatiana Norkina , an analyst at FBS

The U.S. dollar looks weaker against most world currencies. Today the dollar index loses about 0.21 %, falling to 79.95. The main factor of reduction was the uncertainty of market participants about the strength of the Chinese economy recovery. Major U.S. stock markets opened with some decrease , but at the moment the S & P500 is in the green zone, +0.10, and the DJIA pulled down to zero.


The currency pair EUR/USD tries to recover after the morning consolidation, punching the resistance at 1.3725. USD/CHF is still kept above 0.8900 figure, but bears increase pressure. The British currency continued Friday's strengthening: GBP/USD has recovered to around 1.6845, but then went back to 1.6825 support. Major changes have occurred on the USD/JPY: the pair has broken down long-term support 101.40 and declined to 101.10.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1267

 

[riki143]

Market News

May 20: Asian session

Asian stocks swung between gains and losses. Nikkei 225 is up by 0.7%. USD/JPY is trading in the 101.50 area after testing 101.10 yesterday. The Bank of Japan begins a 2-day meeting today.

AUD/USD was the biggest mover of the day, extending the decline and testing the levels below the $0.9300 mark. News that S&P may downgrade the Australia's AAA credit rating was a factor weighing on the currency. RBA meeting minutes didn’t bring any surprises to the market, but the RBA’s Assistant Governor Debelle tried to pull the currency lower by saying that “lower capital inflows may result in a lower AUD”. NZD/USD dropped, but found support around $0.8610. Gold price sits unchanged at $1293.

EUR/USD keeps trading in the $1.3700 area. Yesterday the pair tested $1.3734. The ECB officials Daniele Nouy and Luis Maria Linde are scheduled to speak today at the Frankfurt Finance Summit, while Erkki Liikanen speaks in Helsinki. GBP/USD is trading just above $1.6800. Poundawaitsinflationdataat 08:30 GMT.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1269