How News Moved the Market previously + What’s Lined Up Tomorrow

[Attila Farkas]

️ High-Impact Economic Events – Tuesday, June 24​

Time Zone: GMT
Currencies most likely to be impacted: EUR, CAD, and USD — based on sentiment data from Germany, inflation releases from Canada, and key U.S. events including Powell’s testimony.

---

08:00 – Germany

IFO Business Climate Index​

• Forecast: 88.4 | Previous: 87.5
• What it Measures: Business sentiment across key sectors: manufacturing, services, trade, and construction.
• Why it Matters: A critical leading indicator for the German economy. A stronger reading may support EUR strength, signaling improved business expectations and economic activity.

---

12:30 – Canada

Core Inflation Rate (MoM)​

• Forecast: 0.6% | Previous: 0.5%
• Focus: Excludes volatile components such as fuel and food.
• Significance: Watched closely by the Bank of Canada. An uptick may fuel interest rate hike expectations, supporting CAD.

Headline Inflation Rate (YoY)​

• Forecast: 1.5% | Previous: 1.7%
• Focus: Measures the change in the entire consumer basket annually.
• Insight: A decrease could ease inflationary pressure, lowering rate hike urgency.

Inflation Rate (MoM)​

• Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: -0.1%
• Focus: Month-to-month price fluctuations.
• Market Watch: A positive turnaround from last month’s decline may revive inflation concerns.

Core Inflation Rate (YoY)​

• Forecast: 2.6% | Previous: 2.5%
• Insight: A steady rise reinforces longer-term inflation persistence and may influence central bank policy tightening.

---

14:00 – United States

Fed Chair Powell Testimony​

• Details: Powell appears before Congress to provide updates on monetary policy and economic outlook.
• Market Relevance: Investors will scrutinize his tone for signals on potential rate cuts amid inflation concerns and geopolitical risks.

CB Consumer Confidence​

• Forecast: 99 | Previous: 98
• Measures: Sentiment from a broad household survey on current and future financial conditions.
• Importance: Confidence drives spending, which supports over two-thirds of U.S. GDP.

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index​

• Forecast: -7 | Previous: -9
• Measures: Regional factory activity in the Mid-Atlantic.
• Interpretation: A reading above zero signals growth; below zero indicates contraction. May offer a micro-level look at broader industrial health.

Market Insight
Global geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are contributing to a cautious tone across financial markets. While traditionally a driver of short-term volatility, such developments influence investor sentiment, energy prices, and inflation expectations — all of which shape equity valuations. With key data and central bank updates from the U.S., Canada, and Europe on the horizon, markets remain sensitive to how global uncertainty may guide risk appetite, sector rotation, and broader equity trends.

How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Examples​

EUR/USD Intraday Analysis: Ifo-Driven Spike Meets Resistance​

German business sentiment improved in May as trade tensions eased and expectations for increased public spending lifted economic outlooks. The Ifo Institute’s expectations index rose to 88.9 from 87.4, surpassing analyst forecasts, while the current conditions measure saw a slight decline. Ifo President Clemens Fuest noted that uncertainty had subsided and confidence was gradually returning. Despite this, Germany’s economy remained stagnant, with GDP expected to show no growth for a third consecutive year. Earlier data also revealed a contraction in private-sector activity, as a sharp decline in services offset gains in manufacturing.


**Following the German Ifo Business Climate release, EUR/USD rallied from the session open at 1.13212 to a high of 1.1347, which now stands as immediate resistance. Initial support was established at 1.12903, the low before subsequent US data releases.

USD/CAD Price Action Following Canadian CPI Data​

In April, Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.7% year over year, easing from 2.3% in March, as energy prices dropped 12.7% following the removal of the federal carbon tax and weaker crude oil prices amid slowing global trade and rising OPEC+ supply. Excluding energy, inflation rose 2.9%, suggesting persistent underlying price pressures. Grocery prices accelerated to 3.8%, driven by significant increases in beef (+16.2%), coffee (+13.4%), and sugar (+8.6%). Travel tour costs also surged 6.7% annually. On a monthly basis, CPI fell 0.1% (0.2% seasonally adjusted). Regionally, price growth slowed in nine provinces, except Quebec, where gasoline prices fell less due to the province’s cap-and-trade system.

​

**Following the Canadian inflation data release, USD/CAD opened at 1.39596 — the session high — before gradually declining to establish intraday support at 1.39089, the lowest point of the day.

Reminder:​

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.


Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila Farkas]

️ High-Impact Economic Events – Tuesday, June 25​

Time Zone: GMT
Currencies most likely to be impacted: AUD and USD — driven by Australia’s CPI indicator and a heavy U.S. data slate including Powell's testimony and housing data.

---

01:30 – Australia

• Forecast: 2.3% | Previous: 2.4%
• What it Measures: Tracks the year-over-year change in consumer prices across a representative basket of goods and services.
• Why it Matters: This is Australia’s primary inflation gauge. A hotter-than-expected figure may raise the prospect of tighter RBA policy, boosting the AUD. Conversely, a cooling print may support a more dovish outlook.

---

14:00 – United States

• Details: Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance and economic outlook.
• Market Relevance: Traders will watch for any shift in tone related to inflation, growth, or interest rate guidance. The testimony can significantly influence expectations for future rate cuts or policy tightening.

---

• Forecast: 700K | Previous: 743K
• What it Measures: Reflects the number of newly constructed single-family homes sold, expressed as an annualized rate.
• Why it Matters: A strong reading typically indicates consumer confidence and housing market momentum — both critical for broader economic health. A miss could suggest softening demand.

---

• Forecast: -5.8% | Previous: 10.9%
• Insight: New home sales are highly sensitive to mortgage rates and economic outlook. A sharp drop may point to rising affordability pressures or buyer hesitation amid macro uncertainty. Volatility in this data is common due to reliance on permit and construction activity.

---

Market Insight
With inflation in focus and housing activity in the spotlight, the day’s data could influence both currency and equity markets. In Australia, the CPI print will shape near-term AUD sentiment, while in the U.S., Powell's tone and housing data may guide expectations around monetary policy and economic resilience amid shifting rate-cut odds.

How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Example​

USD/JPY Slides Despite Positive U.S. Home Sales Data​

At 14:00 GMT on May 23, the U.S. reported a 10.9% month-over-month jump in new home sales to 743,000 units, marking the strongest pace in over a year. While this data appeared positive for the U.S. economy, the USD/JPY pair declined from 142.805 to 142.423 by the end of the day. Several underlying factors tempered market enthusiasm. Although sales volumes rose, the median sale price fell by 2% year over year, indicating potential price softening. Inventory levels remained elevated at 8.1 months, suggesting continued supply pressures. The average price increase was largely attributed to activity in higher-end homes, rather than broad-based inflation. As a result, the data was seen as having a neutral impact on future Federal Reserve policy, with no significant shift in interest rate expectations. This contributed to modest USD weakness and a mild recovery in the yen.


**Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila Farkas]

️ Economic Calendar – June 26​

Time Zone: GMT
Focus Currencies: EUR, USD, JPY

---

06:00 – Germany GfK Consumer Confidence

• Forecast: -19.0 | Previous: -19.9
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = EUR bullish
• Comment: Sentiment in Germany remains deeply pessimistic, but any upside surprise could hint at improving household outlook. With inflation easing and wage growth rising, even a small uptick could boost the euro modestly.

---

12:30 – US Durable Goods Orders MoM

• Forecast: 5.2% | Previous: -6.3%
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = USD bullish
• Comment: A rebound would signal strong business investment and consumer demand. Markets will assess whether this bounce reflects one-off volatility or a sustained pickup in economic activity.

---

12:30 – US GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final

• Forecast: -0.2% | Previous: 2.4%
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = USD bullish
• Comment: A sharp downgrade to Q1 GDP would support concerns about slowing economic momentum. If confirmed, it could weigh on Fed rate hike expectations and dampen USD demand.

---

12:30 – US Initial Jobless Claims

• Forecast: 247K | Previous: 245K
• Market Impact: Lower-than-expected = USD bullish
• Comment: A subtle but closely watched labor market gauge. Rising claims could suggest easing labor conditions, adding to dovish sentiment, while a decline would support a strong employment picture.

---

23:30 – Japan Unemployment Rate

• Forecast: 2.5% | Previous: 2.5%
• Market Impact: Lower-than-expected = JPY bullish
• Comment: Japan’s jobless rate remains near multi-decade lows. A surprise drop may boost the yen slightly, though muted reactions are typical unless there's a significant deviation.

---

23:50 – Japan Retail Sales YoY

• Forecast: 3.0% | Previous: 3.3%
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = JPY bullish
• Comment: A key gauge of consumer strength. Slowing annual growth might raise concerns over domestic demand, but still indicates ongoing economic recovery.

---

23:50 – Japan Retail Sales MoM

• Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 0.5%
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = JPY bullish
• Comment: Retail momentum is holding up, but a miss here could confirm weakening short-term consumption. Traders may weigh this with inflation and BoJ guidance.

---

​

Chart Example: How Markets React to Key Economic Releases​

U.S. Markets React to Durable Goods and Confidence Data – GBPUSD Mirrors Sentiment​

On May 27, 2025, the U.S. Census Bureau reported a sharp 6.3% decline in April durable goods orders to $296.3 billion, ending a four-month growth streak. The drop was largely driven by a 17.1% plunge in transportation equipment orders. Excluding transportation, orders rose slightly by 0.2%, while non-defense orders fell 7.5%, indicating weaker manufacturing demand. Shipments rose for the fifth straight month by 0.4%, and inventories continued their upward trend. On the same day, the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index also saw a notable rebound, rising to 98.0 from 85.7 after five months of declines. The recovery was attributed to improved expectations in business and income, partially influenced by the May 12 U.S.-China tariff pause. This announcement contributed to major market movements, as traders reacted to both signs of slowing industrial demand and renewed consumer optimism.

​

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Reminder:​

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.


Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila Farkas]

Economic Calendar – June 27
​

Time Zone: GMT

Focus: This calendar highlights high-impact news releases expected to influence volatility in the forex markets, particularly affecting the euro, U.S. dollar, and Canadian dollar.

---

06:45 AM – France Producer Price Index (PPI) MoM

• Forecast: -1.2% | Previous: -4.3%
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = EUR bullish
• Insight: A smaller decline or surprise increase may suggest stabilizing producer costs. As a leading inflation indicator, PPI can shift expectations for future CPI trends in the eurozone.

---

06:45 AM – France PPI YoY

• Forecast: -0.3% | Previous: -0.8%
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = EUR bullish
• Insight: Still in deflationary territory, but a narrowing decline would suggest easing pressure on manufacturers. A key data point for gauging longer-term price stability in France.

---

06:45 AM – France Inflation Rate YoY

• Forecast: 0.9% | Previous: 0.7%
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = EUR bullish
• Insight: Low headline inflation is keeping the ECB cautious. A pickup here could raise speculation over shifting monetary guidance if sustained.

---

06:45 AM – France Inflation Rate MoM

• Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: -0.1%
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = EUR bullish
• Insight: A monthly rise may reflect seasonal pricing or energy base effects. A notable uptick would keep inflation watchers alert for upside risks.

---

07:00 AM – Spain Retail Sales MoM

• Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 0.7%
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = EUR bullish
• Insight: Consumption appears resilient. Stronger data may suggest that households are weathering high interest rates better than expected.

---

07:00 AM – Spain Retail Sales YoY

• Forecast: 3.9% | Previous: 4.0%
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = EUR bullish
• Insight: Slight deceleration but still elevated. A strong YoY reading underlines the strength of Spain’s domestic demand.

---

07:00 AM – Spain Inflation Rate MoM

• Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 0.1%
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = EUR bullish
• Insight: A continued rise could feed into broader eurozone inflation metrics. Close attention will be paid for any signs of price stickiness.

---

12:30 PM – US Personal Spending MoM

• Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.2%
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = USD bullish
• Insight: Spending growth is softening. A weaker print may reinforce expectations of slower consumption trends and a more dovish Fed stance.

---

12:30 PM – US Personal Income MoM

• Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 0.8%
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = USD bullish
• Insight: Income growth supports future spending potential. A strong reading could counter soft consumption concerns and lift USD sentiment.

---

12:30 PM – US Core PCE Price Index MoM

• Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.1%
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = USD bullish
• Insight: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. A surprise to the upside may reignite rate hike speculation, making this a key market mover.

---

12:30 PM – US Core PCE Price Index YoY

• Forecast: 2.6% | Previous: 2.5%
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = USD bullish
• Insight: Any firming in core inflation raises policy risks. A move above 2.6% could fuel concern that disinflation is stalling.

---

12:30 PM – Canada GDP MoM

• Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.1%
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = CAD bullish

Insight: Flat but positive growth may support CAD if momentum is seen holding. A beat would raise the odds of a more confident BoC stance.

---

Chart Example: How Markets React to Key Economic Releases​

U.S. Inflation Cools in April as Consumer Spending Slows​

In April, U.S. inflation showed signs of cooling, with the Core PCE Price Index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge — rising just 0.1% from the previous month and 2.5% year-over-year, marking its lowest annual gain in over four years. Despite rising incomes, consumer spending slowed to 0.2%, down from 0.7% in March, possibly reflecting early reactions to higher prices from tariffs. Durable goods prices rose sharply by 0.5%, while service costs edged up just 0.1%. On the same day, University of Michigan data showed U.S. consumer sentiment held steady in May at 52.2, ending a four-month decline, though the Current Conditions Index fell and year-ahead inflation expectations inched up to 6.6%.

EUR/USD initially turned bearish following the headline release, as markets reacted cautiously to mixed inflation signals. However, the pair quickly reversed into bullish territory as traders digested the details — with soft Core PCE figures and weaker consumer spending suggesting a cooling economy. This reinforced dovish Fed expectations, pressuring the U.S. dollar and lifting the euro.


Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility

Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Reminder:
Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila Farkas]

​

Economic Calendar – June 29–30, 2025​

Time Zone: GMT
Focus Currencies: JPY, CNH, EUR, USD, NZD

---

​

Sunday – June 29​

23:50 – Japan Industrial Production MoM (Prelim)

• Forecast: +0.4% | Previous: −1.1%
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = JPY bullish
• Insight: A rebound in production could restore confidence after the prior decline. This data is closely tied to broader economic momentum and will be watched for early signs of Q2 manufacturing recovery.

---

Monday – June 30​

01:30 – China NBS Manufacturing PMI

• Forecast: 50.4 | Previous: 49.5
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = CNH bullish
• Insight: A reading above 50 marks expansion. Markets will look for signs of stabilization amid mixed macro indicators and soft global demand. A strong print could fuel optimism around China's industrial recovery.

---

06:00 – Germany Retail Sales MoM

• Forecast: +0.5% | Previous: −1.1%
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = EUR bullish
• Insight: Consumer activity has been volatile. A recovery in spending would boost confidence in Germany’s domestic demand, supporting the euro if confirmed.

---

06:00 – Germany Retail Sales YoY

• Forecast: +2.5% | Previous: +2.3%
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = EUR bullish
• Insight: A steady improvement in annual sales could indicate deeper recovery in household consumption, though inflation-adjusted gains are key.

---

12:00 – Germany Inflation Rate MoM (Prelim)

• Forecast: +0.2% | Previous: +0.1%
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = EUR bullish
• Insight: Inflationary pressures remain in focus as ECB policy remains sensitive to price trends. A hotter-than-expected print may revive rate speculation.

---

12:00 – Germany Inflation Rate YoY (Prelim)

• Forecast: +2.2% | Previous: +2.1%
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = EUR bullish
• Insight: Markets will watch this for signs of persistent inflation. Even a slight uptick could impact ECB outlook, especially if driven by services and housing categories.

---

13:45 – US Chicago PMI

• Forecast: 44.0 | Previous: 40.5
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = USD bullish
• Insight: Manufacturing sentiment in the Midwest remains weak, but a rebound here could hint at stabilization in business activity. A sub-50 reading still indicates contraction.

---

14:30 – US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

• Forecast: — | Previous: −15.3
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = USD bullish
• Insight: Another key regional snapshot. Persistent contraction in Texas manufacturing may confirm broader weakness in the sector. A surprise rise would offer a glimmer of strength.

---

22:45 – New Zealand Building Permits MoM

• Forecast: −1.8% | Previous: −15.6%
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = NZD bullish
• Insight: A rebound would signal potential stabilization in the construction sector after a steep drop. Building permits are a leading indicator of economic activity.

---

23:50 – Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index (Q2)

• Forecast: 34 | Previous: 35
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = JPY bullish
• Insight: Business confidence among services firms remains elevated. A surprise upside would reinforce resilience in domestic demand despite export headwinds.

---

23:50 – Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q2)

• Forecast: 10 | Previous: 12
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = JPY bullish
• Insight: Manufacturing sentiment has softened amid global uncertainty. A better-than-expected result may support JPY by easing fears of industrial stagnation.

​

​

Chart Example: How Markets React to Key Economic Releases​

​

​

Japan’s Preliminary Industrial Production Contracts in April Despite Smaller-Than-Expected Decline​

In May, Japanese economic data painted a mixed picture. While industrial production declined by 0.9% month-on-month due to weaker auto output and the impact of U.S. tariffs, retail sales rebounded by 0.5%, supported by strong auto sales and consumer spending. Inflationary pressures remained elevated, with Tokyo core CPI rising to 3.6%, marking the fourth consecutive month of acceleration. Core-core inflation, excluding food and energy, also increased to 3.3%, indicating broad-based price growth across sectors such as housing, entertainment, and transportation. Despite weak output, the Bank of Japan faced growing pressure to act on inflation, and market expectations shifted toward a 25 basis point rate hike in July. However, concerns over fragile economic recovery, rising long-term yields, and global headwinds suggested the BoJ would proceed cautiously, potentially pausing further hikes until early next year.

​

USD/CNH Reaction to China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI – June 2, 2025​

In May 2025, China’s factory activity contracted for a second consecutive month, though the pace of decline slowed as the country reached a temporary trade truce with the United States. The official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5 from April’s 49.0, remaining below the 50-mark that separates expansion from contraction. Despite the overall contraction, the manufacturing sub-index showed some growth, and there were signs of improvement in foreign trade orders, especially among firms with U.S. ties. This followed a bilateral agreement earlier in the month that slashed U.S. tariffs from 145% to 30% for 90 days and saw China reduce its tariffs on American goods from 125% to 10%. However, uncertainty persisted, as remaining tariffs stayed well above pre-Trump levels, and tensions flared again over U.S. visa restrictions on Chinese students, prompting a protest from Beijing.

​

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

​

Reminder:​

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.​

​

 

[Attila Farkas]

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – July 1, 2025 ​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: CNY, JPY, CHF, EUR, USD

---

01:45 GMT
China – Caixin Manufacturing PMI
Forecast: 49.2 | Previous: 48.3
Currency: CNY
Market Insight:
This index reflects real-time sentiment from China’s smaller manufacturers. Although still contracting, a higher-than-expected result may support the yuan and global risk assets.

---

05:00 GMT
Japan – Consumer Confidence
Forecast: 32.5 | Previous: 32.8
Currency: JPY
⚠️ What’s at Stake:
Weak consumer confidence could point to a spending slowdown in Japan’s economy. Any upside surprise may provide a lift to the yen and domestic demand outlook.

---

06:30 GMT
Switzerland – Retail Sales YoY
Forecast: 1.0% | Previous: 1.3%
Currency: CHF
Key Implications:
Annual retail activity is a key driver for Swiss economic momentum. Slower sales may pressure the franc as consumer confidence softens.

---

06:30 GMT
Switzerland – Retail Sales MoM
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: -0.3%
Currency: CHF
What Smart Money’s Watching:
A return to monthly growth may reflect improving consumer sentiment, offering support to the Swiss franc if sustained.

---

07:55 GMT
Germany – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 6.3% | Previous: 6.3%
Currency: EUR
Behind the Numbers:
The jobless rate holds steady, but any shift could signal changes in eurozone labor dynamics and affect ECB policy tone.

---

09:00 GMT
Euro Area – Inflation Rate MoM Flash
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.0%
Currency: EUR
Why It Matters:
Monthly inflation pickup may suggest rising cost pressures. Even a slight surprise can sway expectations around ECB action.

---

09:00 GMT
Euro Area – Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash
Forecast: 2.4% | Previous: 2.3%
Currency: EUR
Trading Takeaway:
Core inflation drives ECB thinking. A beat could strengthen the euro as markets price in prolonged rate tightness.

---

09:00 GMT
Euro Area – Inflation Rate YoY Flash
Forecast: 2.0% | Previous: 1.9%
Currency: EUR
Market Movers:
The headline CPI is crucial for gauging price trends. A continued rise increases pressure on the ECB to stay hawkish.

---

14:00 GMT
U.S. – JOLTs Job Openings
Forecast: 7.1M | Previous: 7.391M
Currency: USD
Market Insight:
JOLTs data is a leading labor market barometer. A strong reading could reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance, lifting the dollar.

---

14:00 GMT
U.S. – ISM Manufacturing PMI
Forecast: 49.2 | Previous: 48.5
Currency: USD
⚠️ What’s at Stake:
Still below 50, but improving. Traders watch closely for signs of a rebound in U.S. industrial activity—crucial for GDP and Fed direction.

​

Chart Examples: How Markets React to Key Economic Releases​

​

Euro Weakens Sharply as Inflation Falls Below ECB Target​

In May, euro zone inflation eased more than expected to 1.9%, slipping below the European Central Bank’s 2% target for the first time in 2025, according to flash data from Eurostat. The decline was driven largely by a sharp drop in services inflation, which fell to 3.2% from 4%, while core inflation also cooled to 2.3% from April’s 2.7%. The data supported expectations for another ECB rate cut in July, following a widely anticipated 25-basis-point reduction later that week. Despite ongoing global uncertainty, including U.S. tariff threats, the OECD maintained its euro area growth forecast at 1% for 2025. The euro fell 0.3% against the dollar on the news, while bond yields across the bloc edged lower.

EUR/USD Rises After Softer U.S. Manufacturing Print​

In May, U.S. manufacturing activity declined further, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI slipping to 48.5% from April’s 48.7%, marking a continued contraction in the sector. The New Orders Index edged up to 47.6%, and the Employment Index rose slightly to 46.8%, while Production improved modestly to 45.4%, suggesting a slower pace of decline. Meanwhile, the Prices Index remained high at 69.4%, indicating persistent input cost pressures. Overall, the data pointed to a fragile industrial environment, dampening economic sentiment and reinforcing uncertainty around growth as the Federal Reserve weighs its next steps.



Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

​

​

**Reminder:**​

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila Farkas]

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – July 2, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: AUD, EUR, USD

---

01:30 GMT
Australia – Building Permits MoM (May)
Forecast: 5.2% | Previous: -5.7%
Currency: AUD
Market Insight:
A sharp rebound in approvals would signal renewed strength in Australia’s housing pipeline, often seen as a lead indicator for broader economic activity.

---

01:30 GMT
Australia – Retail Sales MoM (May)
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: -0.1%
Currency: AUD
️ Consumer Pulse:
Retail activity is the heartbeat of the economy. A stronger-than-expected print would support AUD and signal rising consumer confidence.

---

09:00 GMT
Euro Area – Unemployment Rate (June)
Forecast: 6.2% | Previous: 6.2%
Currency: EUR
Stability Watch:
No change is forecast, but a downside surprise could boost the euro by reinforcing labor market strength and domestic demand.

---

12:15 GMT
United States – ADP Employment Change (June)
Forecast: 90K | Previous: 37K
Currency: USD
‍♂️ Jobs Watch:
Seen as a lead-in to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls, a strong beat here would reinforce labor market resilience and support the dollar ahead of key Fed decisions.

​

⚡️News Moves Markets: A Chart Breakdown of a High-Impact Release​

​

June 4 ADP Report Misses Forecasts, Triggers Market Reaction​

On June 4, 2025, ADP reported that U.S. private sector hiring rose by just 37,000 jobs in May — sharply below expectations of 110,000 and marking the lowest monthly increase since March 2023. The slowdown followed a downwardly revised 60,000 gain in April, signaling a possible loss of labor market momentum.

The weak print spurred immediate reactions in both markets and policy circles. President Trump demanded the Federal Reserve lower interest rates, citing the jobs miss and comparing the Fed unfavorably to Europe’s multiple rate cuts.
Sector-wise, manufacturing and mining saw notable job losses, while leisure, hospitality, and financial services offered limited support. Small and large firms shed workers, while mid-sized companies added 49,000 jobs.
Despite the hiring slowdown, wage growth remained steady, with a 4.5% annual increase for job holders and 7% for job switchers — levels still considered robust by ADP.

The data, released two days ahead of the official nonfarm payrolls report, highlighted growing uncertainty around the labor market and added to expectations for a dovish policy shift, helping drive volatility in GBP/USD.



Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

​

**Reminder:​

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila Farkas]

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – July 3, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: AUD, CNY, CHF, USD, CAD, JPY

---

01:30
Australia – Balance of Trade
Forecast: A$5.2B | Previous: A$5.413B
Currency: AUD
Market Insight:
Australia’s trade surplus is key to its current account strength. A better-than-expected reading may support the AUD by signaling robust export demand, especially in key sectors like iron ore and LNG.

---

01:45
China – Caixin Services PMI
Forecast: 51.3 | Previous: 51.1
Currency: CNY
Key Implications:
A modest improvement suggests ongoing recovery in China’s service sector. A reading above 50 supports the yuan and signals resilience in domestic demand.

---

06:30
Switzerland – Inflation Rate MoM
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.1%
Currency: CHF
⚠️ What’s at Stake:
Flat monthly price growth keeps pressure off the SNB. Any upside surprise could reinforce the case for policy tightening and boost the franc.

---

06:30
Switzerland – Inflation Rate YoY
Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: -0.1%
Currency: CHF
Market Focus:
Yearly deflation remains a concern. Persistent negative CPI may weigh on the CHF, especially if broader eurozone inflation picks up.

---

12:30
U.S. – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 4.2% | Previous: 4.2%
Currency: USD
Macro Watch:
Stable unemployment may give the Fed time before acting on rates. A downside surprise could ignite USD strength on improving labor market signals.

---

12:30
U.S. – Average Hourly Earnings MoM
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.4%
Currency: USD
Behind the Numbers:
Wage growth is closely watched for inflation clues. A slowdown may dampen Fed rate hike expectations, while an upside beat could support the dollar.

---

12:30
U.S. – Non-Farm Payrolls
Forecast: 100K | Previous: 139K
Currency: USD
Trading Takeaway:
This is the headline event. A weak print may confirm a softening labor market and pressure the USD. A surprise beat could shift Fed expectations dramatically.

---

12:30
U.S. – Initial Jobless Claims
Forecast: 240K | Previous: 236K
Currency: USD
What Smart Money’s Watching:
Rising claims may fuel dovish Fed sentiment. Markets will watch closely for signs of stress ahead of the NFP print.

---

12:30
Canada – Balance of Trade
Forecast: -C$6.4B | Previous: -C$7.14B
Currency: CAD
Why It Matters:
A narrower deficit could signal strength in Canada’s export sectors. Improvement may support the loonie, especially amid rising energy shipments.

---

14:00
U.S. – ISM Services PMI
Forecast: 49.7 | Previous: 49.9
Currency: USD
⚠️ What’s at Stake:
Still below expansion territory. Another sub-50 reading could deepen growth concerns and weigh on the dollar.

---

14:00
U.S. – Factory Orders MoM
Forecast: 9.5% | Previous: -3.7%
Currency: USD
Key Implications:
A sharp rebound could indicate strong industrial demand. This may counterbalance weaker job data and provide support to the greenback.

---

23:30
Japan – Household Spending YoY
Forecast: 0.9% | Previous: -0.1%
Currency: JPY
Market Insight:
A return to positive spending could signal improving consumer sentiment in Japan. A beat would support the yen amid BoJ policy speculation.

​

Market Pulse: What Really Happens When Key Data Drops​

✅ USDCHF Reaction – Swiss Inflation (June 3, 2025)​

In May, Swiss inflation returned to negative territory at -0.1% year-on-year, posing a renewed challenge for the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The decline was largely driven by external factors such as a strong Swiss franc and falling global energy prices, which pulled down import and administered costs. Despite stable service and core inflation, the overall CPI fell below the SNB’s target range of 0% to 2%. In response, the SNB was expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, with a further cut likely in September—possibly returning rates to negative territory. Markets also anticipated increased foreign exchange intervention to weaken the franc, though this strategy carried geopolitical risks, particularly with the U.S. Switzerland’s persistent deflationary pressures left the SNB facing tough policy decisions in the months ahead.

✅ GBPUSD Reaction – ISM Services PMI (June 4, 2025)​

The U.S. services sector unexpectedly slipped into contraction in May, with the ISM Services PMI falling to 49.9 from 51.6 in April — marking the first contraction since June 2024. New orders sharply declined to 46.4%, while business activity edged down to 50%. Despite the weaker headline, employment improved slightly, rising to 50.7%, and inventory sentiment jumped to 62.9%. While not signaling a deep downturn, the data reflected growing uncertainty, with the three-month average PMI of 50.8 indicating a slowdown from the prior nine-month average of 52.8, according to ISM.






Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

​

Reminder:​

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila Farkas]

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – July 4, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: CHF, EUR

---

05:45 GMT
Switzerland – Unemployment Rate (June)
Forecast: 2.7% | Previous: 2.8%
Currency: CHF
Labor Market Snapshot:
A lower-than-expected jobless rate would indicate improving labor market conditions. While this is a lagging indicator, a positive surprise may support the franc through boosted consumer confidence.

---

06:00 GMT
Germany – Factory Orders MoM (May)
Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 0.6%
Currency: EUR
Production Pipeline Pulse:
Factory orders offer a forward-looking view of Germany’s manufacturing outlook. A beat may signal stronger upcoming industrial activity and lift the euro.

---

06:45 GMT
France – Industrial Production MoM (May)
Forecast: 0.7% | Previous: -1.4%
Currency: EUR
⚙️ Market Insight:
After a sharp contraction in April, a rebound in industrial output would suggest early signs of recovery. A stronger reading may provide near-term support to the euro.

---

08:00 GMT
Italy – Retail Sales YoY (May)
Forecast: 2.5% | Previous: 3.7%
Currency: EUR
Consumer Trends:
Annual retail sales reflect overall household spending strength. A slowdown from April could temper euro optimism unless offset by positive monthly data.

---

08:00 GMT
Italy – Retail Sales MoM (May)
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.7%
Currency: EUR
What to Watch:
Retail spending is a key economic driver. Even modest monthly growth would help offset slower yearly momentum and may stabilize EUR sentiment.

---

09:00 GMT
Euro Area – PPI MoM (May)
Forecast: -0.6% | Previous: -2.2%
Currency: EUR
Inflation Input Watch:
Producer prices reflect upstream cost pressures. A milder decline may ease deflation concerns, potentially supporting the euro if producer margins stabilize.

---

09:00 GMT
Euro Area – PPI YoY (May)
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.7%
Currency: EUR
Inflation Direction:
Annual PPI data helps assess medium-term price trends. A further slowdown could suggest continued weakness in pipeline inflation, influencing ECB tone.

Turning Economic Releases into Trade Opportunities​

Swiss Unemployment Steady at 2.8%, USDCHF Extends on U.S. Data Weakness​

Switzerland’s unemployment rate remained steady at 2.8% in April 2025, as expected, with the number of registered jobseekers falling to 130,101 from 132,569 in March, according to the Federal Statistics Office. While the headline rate held firm, the modest decline in unemployment indicated a gradually strengthening labour market. The data aligned with recent business sentiment surveys that suggested employers had maintained staffing levels, reinforcing economic stability. With no surprises in the release, near-term market reaction was muted, and the Swiss National Bank faced little pressure for immediate policy shifts based on labour conditions alone.

However, while the Swiss data set an early tone for USDCHF, broader price action later in the session reflected additional drivers. Weaker-than-expected U.S. trade balance data and a notable decline in economic optimism contributed to a softening U.S. dollar, extending downside pressure on USDCHF beyond the initial reaction. This layered response highlights how CHF movement on the day was shaped by both domestic stability and external dollar weakness.





Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.
Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.