How News Moved the Market previously + What’s Lined Up Tomorrow

MiloPlexyTrade · May 26, 2025

Upcoming High-Impact News: France Inflation Rate (YoY & MoM)
️ Date: Tuesday, 27th May
Time: 06:45 GMT
Country: France

Why it matters:
This release measures how much consumer prices have changed over the past year and month. Inflation influences consumer purchasing power and plays a central role in shaping interest rate policy. A higher-than-expected reading could increase the odds of ECB rate hikes, impacting EUR pairs.

Forecasts:

YoY Inflation Rate: Forecast 1.0% | Previous 0.8%
MoM Inflation Rate: Forecast 0.1% | Previous 0.6%

Typical Market Reaction:
An actual reading above forecast is typically bullish for the euro (EUR), as it signals rising inflation pressures that may prompt policy tightening.

Last Reaction – April Inflation Report:

YoY Inflation: 0.8% (unchanged for the third month, lowest since Feb 2021)
MoM Inflation: 0.6% (above the 0.5% forecast)

Energy prices dropped sharply (-7.8%), driven by declines in petroleum and electricity costs. Food prices jumped 1.2% vs 0.6% prior, while services inflation rose to 2.4% due to higher transport costs. Core inflation held steady at 1.3%. The EUR showed slight strength following the release, supported by the stronger-than-expected monthly figure and food price acceleration.

Below is the chart from the French CPI release on March 28th.

At 28th of March 07:45 GMT, France released its preliminary March inflation data, showing the YoY rate unchanged at 0.8%, below the 1.0% forecast, while the MoM figure rose slightly to 0.2%, also missing expectations (0.4%). This suggests continued weak inflationary pressure. Meanwhile, February’s PPI data showed a sharp drop, with the MoM figure at -0.8% versus a 0.5% forecast, and the YoY PPI at -1.4%, well below the -0.1% forecast. Both figures point to deeper disinflation at the producer level, reinforcing a soft inflation outlook for France.

Heads-Up: Multiple High-Impact Announcements on the Radar for tomorrow

Alongside the France Inflation Report, today’s economic calendar is stacked with several key high-impact events that could drive volatility across major currency pairs—especially EUR and USD. Here's what to watch:

GfK Consumer Confidence (06:00 AM GMT)

Consumer sentiment in the eurozone’s largest economy often sets the tone for EUR direction.
Stronger confidence → EUR bullish | Weaker outlook → EUR bearish

Durable Goods Orders MoM (12:30 PM GMT)

A key measure of business investment and economic momentum. Markets focus on core orders (ex-transport) for a clearer view.
Above forecast → USD bullish | Below forecast → USD bearish

CB Consumer Confidence (14:00 PM GMT)

A closely watched indicator of U.S. household sentiment and spending outlook.
Higher confidence = growth optimism → USD strength
Weak data may weigh on the dollar, especially against safe-havens like JPY or CHF

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (14:30 PM GMT)

A regional gauge that can hint at broader U.S. manufacturing trends. While secondary to other releases, surprises here can still spark intraday moves.
️ Stronger data supports USD | Weak data reinforces slowdown concerns

Just a Reminder for Index Traders:
In addition to today’s key macro announcements, daily earnings reports can also influence market sentiment—particularly for major indices like the US30 (Dow Jones), STOXX50, CAC40, Nikkei 225, and GER40 (DAX). Earnings surprises from large-cap names can trigger intraday volatility, so it’s something to be mindful of if you're active in index trading.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

MiloPlexyTrade · May 27, 2025

Upcoming High-Impact News: Official Cash Rate
️ Date: Thursday, 28th May
Time: 02:00 AM GMT
Country: New Zealand

Why it matters:

The overnight interbank lending rate set by the RBNZ influences short-term interest rates, which are the key driver of currency valuation. Traders monitor other economic indicators primarily to anticipate future changes in these rates, as they directly impact exchange rate movements.

Forecasts:

RBNZ Interest Rate: Forecast 3.25% | Previous 3.5%

Typical Market Reaction:

When the actual economic data is stronger than the forecast, it typically has a positive impact on the currency.

Last Reaction – 9th April Inflation Report:

RBNZ Interest Rate: Actual 3.50% | Forecast 3.50% | Previous 3.75%

The Monetary Policy Committee reduced the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 3.5% because while inflation remained on target and domestic economic activity had largely evolved as expected, global trade tensions, particularly new tariffs, were creating downside risks to New Zealand's economic growth and inflation outlook. This move provided the Committee with flexibility to further adjust the rate as the full impact of these global trade policies became clearer, with the aim of keeping inflation stable over the medium term.

The chart below illustrates the reaction to the February 19th announcement regarding New Zealand's Official Cash Rate.

In February 2025, the Monetary Policy Committee reduced the Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points to 3.75 percent, citing consumer price inflation near its target midpoint and easing core inflation. Domestic economic activity was subdued, contributing to lower inflation pressures, though a recovery was anticipated in 2025. Despite expectations of near-term inflation volatility due to exchange rates and petrol prices, the Committee remained confident in medium-term price stability and noted potential for further OCR cuts if conditions aligned with projections.

Heads-Up: Inflation, Jobs & Manufacturing Data on Deck

Tomorrow's economic calendar features a mix of inflation, labor, and manufacturing figures across key economies. EUR, AUD, and USD pairs may see intraday volatility. Here’s what to track:

01:30 AM GMT – Australia Monthly CPI Indicator

A key inflation gauge for AUD traders. Signs of easing inflation could cool rate hike expectations.
Forecast: 2.1% | Previous: 2.4%
Lower CPI = AUD bearish | Upside surprise = AUD support

06:45 AM GMT – France Producer Price Index (YoY & MoM)

Producer prices help gauge upstream inflation pressure. Traders watch YoY changes more closely.
YoY Forecast: 2.9% | Previous: -0.6%
MoM Forecast: -0.3% | Previous: -0.6%
➡️ Higher PPI → EUR strength | Lower PPI → EUR weakness

07:55 AM GMT – Germany Unemployment Rate

Germany’s labor market health is crucial for euro sentiment.
Forecast: 6.4% | Previous: 6.3%
Uptick may weigh on EUR | Drop supports EUR

14:00 PM GMT – U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

A regional snapshot of factory activity. Often overlooked but can influence short-term USD flows.
️ Forecast: -11 | Previous: -13
Better-than-expected = USD support | Weak data = bearish pressure on USD

Just a Reminder for Index Traders:

Earnings reports play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment—especially for major indices like the US30 (Dow Jones), S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, DAX (GER40), CAC 40, STOXX50, Nikkei 225, HK50, China50, AUS200, ES35, NETH25, SWI20, and RUSS2000. Surprises from large-cap companies can trigger sharp intraday moves, making earnings releases a key factor for stock and index traders to monitor closely.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

MiloPlexyTrade · May 28, 2025

Upcoming High-Impact News: GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est Q1
️ Date: Thursday, 29th May
Time: 12:30 PM GMT
Country: US

Why it matters:

Prelim GDP q/q measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. As the broadest indicator of economic activity, it’s a key metric traders watch to assess growth momentum and guide expectations for monetary policy.

Forecasts:

GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est Q1: Forecast -0.3% | Previous 2.4%

Typical Market Reaction:

An actual reading higher than the forecast is generally positive for the currency, as it indicates stronger-than-expected economic performance, which can influence central bank policy expectations and attract investor interest.

Last Reaction – February 27th GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est Q1 Report:

GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est Q1: Actual 2.3% | Forecast 2.3% | Previous 2.3%

The U.S. economy grew at a 2.3% annualized rate in Q4 2024, slowing from 3.1% in Q3 and supported by consumer and government spending despite lower investment. However, in Q1 2025, the economy contracted by 0.3%, the first decline since early 2022, driven by a surge in imports ahead of tariff hikes, slower consumer spending, and a drop in government expenditures. Fixed investment rose strongly in Q1, but overall economic growth weakened amid ongoing concerns about tariffs and labor market challenges.

The chart below presents the preliminary quarter-on-quarter GDP data released on November 27, 2024.

In Q3 2024, the U.S. economy expanded by 2.8% on an annualized basis, matching both initial estimates and market expectations, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis's second estimate. Current-dollar personal income rose by $175.9 billion year-over-year but was revised down by $45.3 billion from the initial figure. Similarly, disposable personal income increased by 2.3% or $122.9 billion, also reflecting a downward revision. The PCE price index rose 1.5% annually, slightly higher than the previous estimate, while the core PCE index, excluding food and energy, was revised down to 2.1%.

Upcoming High-Impact News: Unemployment Claims
️ Date: Thursday, 29th May
Time: 12:30 PM GMT
Country: US

Why it matters:

Initial Jobless Claims measure the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. While this is generally seen as a lagging indicator, it remains an important gauge of economic health, as consumer spending is closely linked to labor market conditions. A rise in unemployment can signal weakening economic activity, which is closely monitored by policymakers and can influence monetary policy decisions.

Forecasts:

Unemployment Claims: Forecast 229K | Previous 227K

Typical Market Reaction:

An actual figure lower than the forecast is generally interpreted as positive for the currency.

Last Reaction – May 22nd Unemployment Claims Report:

Unemployment Claims: Actual 227K | Forecast 230K | Previous 229K

Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell slightly by 2,000 to 227,000 for the week ending May 17, remaining at relatively low and steady levels throughout the year. Despite a rise of 36,000 in continuing claims to 1.9 million—reflecting longer job searches—the labor market was considered solid, according to San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. Economists had predicted slower private payroll growth in May, partly due to tariff impacts, which were expected to influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. The market reacted with lower stock openings and a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.62%.

Additionally, the EURUSD was further influenced by other high-impact U.S. data releases, including the Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI as well as Existing Home Sales, which added volatility to the currency pair during the session.

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Heads Up with More High-Impact News Ahead: Inflation, Jobs, and Manufacturing Data in Focus

Tomorrow's economic calendar features a mix of inflation, labor, and manufacturing figures across key economies. EUR, AUD, and USD pairs may see intraday volatility. Here’s what to track:

05:00 AM GMT – Japan Consumer Confidence

Measures consumer sentiment, influencing spending outlook and JPY flows.
Forecast: 32.8 | Previous: 31.2
➡️ Higher confidence → JPY support | Lower confidence → JPY weakness

23:30 PM GMT – Japan Unemployment Rate

Labor market health indicator for Japan. Stability expected.
Forecast: 2.5% | Previous: 2.5%
➡️ Surprise rise → JPY bearish | Stable or drop → JPY support

23:50 PM GMT – Japan Industrial Production (MoM)

Tracks factory output, signaling manufacturing sector health.
️ Forecast: -0.7% | Previous: 0.2%
Negative print → JPY bearish | Positive surprise → JPY support

23:50 PM GMT – Japan Retail Sales (MoM & YoY)

Retail sales gauge consumer spending strength.
MoM Forecast: -0.3% | Previous: -1.2%
YoY Forecast: 0.7% | Previous: 3.1%
➡️ Better-than-expected sales → JPY support | Weaker sales → JPY bearish

Just a Reminder for Index Traders:

Earnings reports play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment—especially for major indices like the US30 (Dow Jones), S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, DAX (GER40), CAC 40, STOXX50, Nikkei 225, HK50, China50, AUS200, ES35, NETH25, SWI20, and RUSS2000. Surprises from large-cap companies can trigger sharp intraday moves, making earnings releases a key factor for stock and index traders to monitor closely.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

MiloPlexyTrade · May 29, 2025

Upcoming High-Impact News: GDP Growth Rate

️ Date: Thursday, 30th May
Time: 12:30 PM GMT
Country: Canada

Why it matters:

GDP m/m measures the inflation-adjusted monthly change in total goods and services produced, making it a key gauge of Canada’s economic health that traders watch closely.

Forecasts:

GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q1: Forecast 0.3% | Previous 0.6%
GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q1: Forecast 1.3% | Previous 2.6%
GDP MoM: Forecast 0.1% | Previous -0.2%

Typical Market Reaction:

Stronger-than-expected GDP readings often boost the Canadian dollar as they signal a healthier economy and can affect expectations for monetary policy.

Last Reaction – April 30th GDP MoM Report:

GDP MoM: Actual -0.2% | Forecast 0.0% | Previous 0.4%

In February 2025, Canada's GDP contracted by 0.2% month-over-month—the first decline since November—primarily due to downturns in the mining, oil and gas, and construction sectors, compounded by severe winter weather. The goods-producing industries fell by 0.6%, with mining and energy output dropping 2.5% and construction down 0.5%, led by a 0.9% decline in residential building. Services-producing sectors also edged down 0.1%.

While U.S. tariff threats had previously spurred early manufacturing activity, subsequent inventory buildup and investment hesitation began weighing on economic momentum. Markets adjusted their expectations for a Bank of Canada rate cut in June, with odds rising above 50%. The Canadian dollar weakened slightly, and bond yields dropped in response. Statistics Canada forecast a modest 0.1% rebound in March and estimated Q1 GDP to grow at an annualized rate of 1.5%.

View attachment 18071

Chart Insight:
The sharp drop in USDCAD wasn’t just about CAD holding up after Canada’s -0.2% GDP. At the same time, US GDP unexpectedly contracted (-0.3%) and ADP jobs data badly missed, driving a broad USD selloff. Combined with CAD stability and risk-on flows, this created strong downside momentum, breaking key supports on the day.

Upcoming High-Impact News: Core PCE Price Index MoM

️ Date: Friday, 30th May
Time: 12:30 PM GMT
Country: US

Why it matters:

The Core PCE Price Index measures inflation in consumer goods and services (excluding food and energy), weighted by spending, and is closely watched by traders as the Fed’s preferred gauge for guiding interest rate decisions.

Forecasts:

Core PCE Price Index MoM: Forecast 0.2% | Previous 0.0%

Typical Market Reaction:

A higher-than-forecasted actual reading is typically positive for the currency.

Last Reaction – April 30th Core PCE Price Index MoM Report:

Core PCE Price Index MoM: Actual 0.0% | Forecast 0.1% | Previous 0.5%

In March, the U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index remained flat on a monthly basis, marking a significant cooling from February's 0.3% increase. The data, released by the Commerce Department, indicated that underlying inflation pressures eased, with the annual core rate slowing to 2.6% from 3%.

This stabilization came despite a surge in consumer spending, which jumped 0.7% from February—its strongest gain in over two years—driven largely by auto purchases amid tariff fears. While energy prices fell sharply, helping contain overall inflation, food costs rose 0.5%.

The report signaled a temporary economic resilience, though economists warned of mounting risks from President Trump’s aggressive trade policies and spending cuts, which could spur inflation and economic stagnation in the months ahead.

Heads-Up: Consumer, Inflation & Manufacturing Data Incoming

Also to look out for on a busy economic calendar tomorrow are key releases from Australia, Germany, the U.S., and Canada. Expect potential volatility in AUD, EUR, USD, and CAD pairs. Here's your quick rundown:

01:30 AM GMT – Australia Building Permits (MoM, Prelim)

A leading indicator of future construction activity and housing sector momentum.
Forecast: 4.5% | Previous: −8.8%
➡️ Strong rebound → AUD support | Continued weakness → AUD pressure

01:30 AM GMT – Australia Retail Sales (MoM)

Measures consumer spending and overall retail activity.
️ Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.3%
➡️ Positive surprise → AUD bullish | Disappointment → AUD bearish

06:00 AM GMT – Germany Retail Sales (YoY)

Annual measure of retail demand and consumer strength.
Forecast: 2.4% | Previous: 2.2%
➡️ Higher print → EUR support | Lower print → EUR downside

06:00 AM GMT – Germany Retail Sales (MoM)

Tracks monthly retail performance within the Eurozone’s largest economy.
Forecast: 0.6% | Previous: -0.2%
➡️ Upside surprise → EUR boost | Flat/negative → EUR pressure

12:00 PM GMT – Germany Inflation Rate (MoM, Prelim)

A key indicator of monthly price changes and inflation trends.
Forecast: 0.0% | Previous: 0.4%
➡️ Surprise uptick → EUR strength | Drop → EUR weakness

12:00 PM GMT – Germany Inflation Rate (YoY, Prelim)

Annual inflation figure, vital for ECB policy outlook.
Forecast: 2.0% | Previous: 2.1%
➡️ Higher reading → EUR bullish | Lower → EUR bearish

12:30 PM GMT – U.S. Personal Income (MoM)

Reflects consumer earning trends and potential inflation pressure.
Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 0.5%
➡️ Weak growth → USD neutral/weak | Beat → USD support

12:30 PM GMT – U.S. Core PCE Price Index (YoY)

The Fed’s go-to inflation gauge, excluding food and energy.
Forecast: 2.6% | Previous: 2.6%
➡️ Above forecast → USD bullish | Below → USD bearish

13:45 PM GMT – U.S. Chicago PMI

Business activity index focused on the U.S. manufacturing-heavy Midwest.
Forecast: 47 | Previous: 44.6
➡️ Above 50 → Expansion | Below 50 → Contraction (USD likely weak if miss)

Just a Reminder for Index Traders:

Earnings reports significantly influence index movements—especially for US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, DAX (GER40), FTSE 100, CAC 40, and others. Surprises from major companies can trigger volatility, so keep earnings on your radar when planning trades involving stock indices.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis aims to deepen your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities based on historical patterns.

MiloPlexyTrade · May 30, 2025

Upcoming High-Impact News: NBS Manufacturing PMI
️ Date: Saturday, 31st May
Time: 1:30 AM GMT
Country: China

Why it matters:

This index measures manufacturing sector performance through surveys of purchasing managers, providing timely insights into demand, supply conditions, and business sentiment. It serves as a leading indicator of overall economic health.

Forecasts:

NBS Manufacturing PMI: Forecast 48.6 | Previous 49

Typical Market Reaction:

When the actual economic data comes in higher than the forecast, it generally signals stronger economic performance, which tends to have a positive impact on the currency’s value.

Previous Reaction – 1st May NBS Manufacturing PMI Report:

NBS Manufacturing PMI: Actual 49.0 | Forecast 49.7 | Previous 50.5
Non Manufacturing PMI: Actual 50.4 | Forecast 50.6 | Previous 50.8

In April 2025, China’s manufacturing activity dropped to a 16-month low, with the official manufacturing PMI falling to 49.0—its first contraction since January—due to escalating U.S. trade tariffs disrupting bilateral trade. Production and new orders declined sharply, while raw material costs and output prices also fell. The Caixin manufacturing PMI showed a modest expansion at 50.4, and the official non-manufacturing PMI dipped slightly to 50.4. Trade flows between China and the U.S. were severely impacted, with fewer cargo ships departing China for the U.S. Despite fiscal support efforts, economists expected slower growth amid tariff pressures. China’s government pledged support for affected businesses and workers while signaling more active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies to stabilize the economy.

Chart Insight:

Upcoming High-Impact News: ISM Manufacturing PMI
️ Date: Monday, 2nd June
Time: 14:00 PM GMT
Country: US

Why it matters:

ISM Manufacturing PMI is a leading economic indicator that reflects the outlook of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, providing timely insights into business conditions and overall economic health.

Forecasts:

ISM Manufacturing PMI: Forecast 49.6 | Previous 48.7

Typical Market Reaction:

An ISM Manufacturing PMI reading that exceeds market expectations is typically interpreted as a positive indicator of economic strength, often resulting in upward pressure on the currency.

Previous Reaction – May 1st ISM Manufacturing PMI: Report:

ISM Manufacturing PMI: Actual 48.7 | Forecast 48.0 | Previous 49.0

In April 2025, the U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for the second consecutive month, with the Manufacturing PMI® dropping slightly to 48.7% from 49% in March. Demand weakened as new orders and backlogs continued to decline, while production and employment also contracted. Supplier deliveries slowed further, and raw material prices rose sharply due to tariff impacts. Export orders fell significantly, reflecting global trade challenges. Despite the contraction in manufacturing, the overall economy expanded for the 60th straight month. Respondents cited widespread uncertainty over tariffs, which disrupted supply chains, increased costs, and strained customer negotiations. Key industries like petroleum, computers, and machinery saw growth, while transportation equipment and fabricated metals struggled.

Chart Insight:

Heads-Up: Also Watch for High-Impact Swiss Retail & GDP Data Incoming

Monday kicks off with key Swiss data on consumer spending and economic growth—setting the tone for CHF pairs. Eyes also on USD action later in the afternoon.

06:30 AM GMT – Switzerland Retail Sales (YoY)

Annual retail activity snapshot, reflects consumer strength.
️ Forecast: 1.9% | Previous: 2.2%
➡️ Higher print → CHF support | Lower print → CHF weakness

06:30 AM GMT – Switzerland Retail Sales (MoM)

Monthly view of retail momentum.
Forecast: 1.0% | Previous: 0.6%
➡️ Strong growth → CHF bullish | Weak growth → CHF bearish

07:00 AM GMT – Switzerland GDP Growth Rate (QoQ)

Quarterly economic performance indicator for Switzerland.
Forecast: 1.5% | Previous: 1.2%
➡️ Above forecast → CHF support | Below forecast → CHF selling pressure

Just a Reminder for Index Traders:

Earnings reports are pivotal in driving market sentiment, especially for major indices like the US30 (Dow Jones), S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, DAX40, CAC 40, STOXX50, Nikkei 225, HK50, China50, AUS200, ES35, NETH25, SWI20, and RUSS2000. Surprises from large-cap companies often trigger sharp intraday moves, making earnings releases essential events for stock and index traders to watch closely.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

MiloPlexyTrade · Jun 2, 2025

Daily Trade Setups & News Reactions | June 3

01:30 AM GMT AU — RBA Meeting Minutes
Typical Impact: Hawkish tone → Boosts AUD
Why It Matters:
The RBA Meeting Minutes reveal insights from the latest Board discussion, highlighting economic factors influencing interest rate decisions. Traders watch closely for clues on future monetary policy shifts.

01:45 AM GMT CN — Caixin Manufacturing PMI
️ Forecast: 49.5 | Previous: 50.4
Typical Impact: Actual > Forecast → Strengthens CNY
Why It Matters:
A timely gauge of business sentiment, the PMI reflects purchasing managers’ outlook on manufacturing conditions, offering early signals of economic momentum.

06:30 AM GMT CH — Inflation Rate YoY & MoM
️ YoY Forecast: -0.2% | Previous: 0%
️ MoM Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0%
Typical Impact: Higher than forecast → Positive for CNY
Why It Matters:
Inflation data guides central bank policy. Rising consumer prices often push for tighter monetary measures, affecting currency strength.

09:00 AM GMT EU — Core Inflation Rate YoY
️ Forecast: 2.5% | Previous: 2.7%

09:00 AM GMT EU — Inflation Rate Flash MoM & YoY
️ MoM Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.6%
️ YoY Forecast: 2.1% | Previous: 2.2%
Typical Impact: Above forecast → Euro gains
Why It Matters:
Inflation figures shape ECB’s rate outlook. Higher inflation increases the chance of policy tightening, supporting EUR.

09:00 AM GMT EU — Unemployment Rate
️ Forecast: 6.2% | Previous: 6.2%
Typical Impact: Lower than forecast → Positive for EUR
Why It Matters:
Employment levels reflect economic health. Strong job markets boost consumer spending and currency strength.

14:00 PM GMT US — Factory Orders MoM
️ Forecast: -2.2% | Previous: 3.4%
Typical Impact: Actual above forecast → USD strength
Why It Matters:
Factory orders indicate future production levels. Rising orders point to expanding manufacturing activity.

14:00 PM GMT US — JOLTs Job Openings
️ Forecast: 7.05M | Previous: 7.192M
Typical Impact: Actual above forecast → USD bullish
Why It Matters:
Job openings signal labor demand. A strong job market supports consumer spending, driving economic growth.

How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Examples

Switzerland Inflation Rate – YoY & MoM

In April 2025, Swiss consumer prices remained stable, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) holding at 107.5 (December 2020 = 100), showing no change from the previous month or year. This stability reflected offsetting movements—price increases in clothing, fruiting vegetables, air transport, and personal care were balanced by declines in hotel rates, domestic holidays, and mountain railways. Core inflation edged up by 0.1% month-on-month and 0.6% year-on-year, while imported goods rose 0.3% on the month but dropped 2.5% annually. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), used for EU comparisons, rose 0.7% month-on-month and 0.3% annually. Following the CPI release, USDCHF declined, indicating Swiss franc strength despite the flat headline figures. Markets may have priced in a worse outcome, making the neutral print slightly franc-positive, while broader USD weakness, position unwinding, or safe-haven flows may have further supported the move. Overall, the market response suggests the data was viewed as less dovish than expected or driven by external macro influences.

Tracking Labor Demand – JOLTS Job Openings

In March 2025, the U.S. labor market showed signs of cautious retrenchment as job openings fell to 7.2 million, near last year’s lows, reflecting growing uncertainty and weakening labor demand across many industries. Despite a slight increase in quits, particularly in leisure and hospitality, the hiring rate remained steady at a decade-low level, signaling subdued hiring enthusiasm. Meanwhile, layoffs edged down to a historically low rate of 1.0%, as businesses preferred retaining existing workers amid unclear economic prospects rather than making cuts. Overall, the labor market was in a fragile balance, with employers pulling back on hiring but hesitant to release staff, awaiting clearer signals on the economic outlook.

Just a Reminder for Index Traders:

Earnings reports are pivotal in driving market sentiment, especially for major indices like the US30 (Dow Jones), S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, DAX40, CAC 40, STOXX50, Nikkei 225, HK50, China50, AUS200, ES35, NETH25, SWI20, and RUSS2000. Surprises from large-cap companies often trigger sharp intraday moves, making earnings releases essential events for stock and index traders to watch closely.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

MiloPlexyTrade · Jun 3, 2025

Slowing Labor Momentum – ADP Payrolls Miss Expectations

In April, a series of weaker-than-expected U.S. economic indicators weighed on the USD. Private payroll growth slowed sharply to just 62,000 jobs, the smallest gain since July 2024 and well below the 120,000 forecast, as businesses paused hiring amid uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s new tariffs. Simultaneously, the U.S. economy contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3% in Q1—the first contraction in three years—primarily due to a surge in imports ahead of the tariff hikes and a pullback in government spending. Wage pressures also showed signs of easing, with private sector compensation costs rising 3.4% year-on-year, down from 4.1% the previous year. Meanwhile, core PCE inflation cooled to 2.6% annually, flat on the month, suggesting limited pricing pressure. However, the Advance GDP Price Index rose more than expected at 3.7% versus 3.1% forecast, highlighting lingering inflation concerns. Lastly, pending home sales dropped 6.3% in April, despite rising inventory, as high mortgage rates continued to deter buyers. Together, these data points point to a slowing U.S. economy facing the dual challenges of tighter monetary conditions and escalating trade tensions—adding mixed pressure to the dollar.

Monitoring U.S. Service Economy Activity

In April, the U.S. services sector showed signs of improvement, with the ISM Services PMI rising to 51.6% from 50.8% in March, remaining in expansion territory. The New Orders Index increased by 1.9 points to 52.3%, while the Inventory Sentiment Index dipped slightly to 56.1%, and the Business Activity Index fell by 2.2 points to 53.7%. Despite a 2.8-point gain, the Employment Index stayed in contraction at 49% for the second consecutive month. According to ISM, April's results reversed the direction seen in March, with improvements in New Orders, Employment, and Supplier Deliveries. Respondents also flagged pricing impacts from tariffs and federal agency budget cuts as ongoing concerns, though overall sentiment showed improvement.

Just a Reminder for Index Traders:

Earnings reports are pivotal in driving market sentiment, especially for major indices like the US30 (Dow Jones), S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, DAX40, CAC 40, STOXX50, Nikkei 225, HK50, China50, AUS200, ES35, NETH25, SWI20, and RUSS2000. Surprises from large-cap companies often trigger sharp intraday moves, making earnings releases essential events for stock and index traders to watch closely.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis aims to deepen your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities based on historical patterns.

MiloPlexyTrade · Jun 4, 2025

High -Impact Economic Events - Thursday, 5 June 2025

Asia-Pacific

Australia Balance of Trade

Time: 01:30 AM GMT
Forecast: A$6.7B | Previous: A$6.9B
Description: Measures the net difference between exported and imported goods during the previous month.
Why It Matters: Australia is heavily export-reliant (commodities like iron ore and coal). A higher trade surplus indicates stronger demand for exports, boosting AUD as foreign buyers purchase AUD to pay for goods.
Market Insight: Expect AUD strength if the surplus beats forecast; a drop may raise concerns about global demand.

China Caixin Services PMI

Time: 01:45 AM GMT
Forecast: 51.0 | Previous: 50.7
Description: A diffusion index from private-sector service companies, reflecting business conditions.
Why It Matters: A leading indicator of economic momentum in the non-manufacturing sector. Caixin's data focuses on smaller, private firms and complements the official PMI.
Market Insight: A reading above 50 shows expansion. If above forecast, expect modest support for CNY and global risk sentiment.

Switzerland Unemployment Rate

Time: 05:45 AM GMT
Forecast: 2.8% | Previous: 2.8%
Description: Represents the percentage of unemployed individuals actively seeking work.
Why It Matters: Though a lagging indicator, it reflects economic stability. Lower unemployment supports household spending and Swiss franc strength.
Market Insight: Any deviation from 2.8% could surprise CHF pairs due to Switzerland's historically tight labor market.

Germany Factory Orders (MoM)

Time: 06:00 AM GMT
Forecast: -1.8% | Previous: +3.6%
Description: Tracks the change in volume of new manufacturing orders.
Why It Matters: Acts as an early signal of industrial production trends. Germany's economy depends heavily on its manufacturing base.
Market Insight: A large downside surprise could weigh on EUR and EU equity sentiment, while stability may reassure recovery hopes.

Eurozone

Euro Area PPI (YoY)

Time: 09:00 AM GMT
Forecast: -2.3% | Previous: -1.6%
Description: Measures average changes in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output.
Why It Matters: Often a precursor to consumer inflation trends. A continued drop could fuel ECB easing expectations.
Market Insight: A bigger-than-expected fall may pressure EUR and reinforce dovish monetary bets.

ECB Interest Rate Decision

Time: 12:15 PM GMT
Forecast: 2.15% | Previous: 2.40%
Description: The rate set on the ECB's main refinancing operations.
Why It Matters: This is the Eurozone’s benchmark short-term rate. A rate cut would signal a continued dovish policy stance in response to slowing inflation.
Market Insight: Rate changes are typically priced in, but forward guidance in the ECB’s statement will drive market direction.

ECB Deposit Facility Rate

Time: 12:15 PM GMT
Forecast: 2.00% | Previous: 2.25%
Description: Rate paid on overnight deposits held at national central banks.
Why It Matters: Serves as the lower bound for interbank lending rates and a signal of monetary policy stance.
Market Insight: A dovish shift would further encourage borrowing and reduce pressure on EUR.

ECB Press Conference

Time: 12:45 PM GMT
Description: ECB President and governing council elaborate on policy decisions and economic outlook.
Why It Matters: The press conference can drive market volatility, especially if tone or projections differ from expectations.
Market Insight: Hawkish comments (e.g., inflation risks) may support EUR, while dovish tones (e.g., economic headwinds) may weigh on it.

United States

Initial Jobless Claims

Time: 12:30 PM GMT
Forecast: 243K | Previous: 240K
Description: Weekly count of new unemployment insurance claims.
Why It Matters: A real-time gauge of labor market health and consumer confidence.
Market Insight: A lower-than-expected number would support the USD and signal a resilient job market.

Canada

Canada Trade Balance

Time: 12:30 PM GMT
Forecast: C$100M | Previous: -C$510M
Description: Difference in value between exports and imports.
Why It Matters: Canada is a major exporter to the U.S., and trade surpluses typically strengthen CAD.
Market Insight: A swing back into surplus may trigger bullish CAD flows.

Ivey PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Time: 14:00 PM GMT
Forecast: 48.2 | Previous: 47.9
Description: Monthly survey of business purchasing managers across Canada.
Why It Matters: Offers insight into inflation, employment, and demand trends.
Market Insight: Readings below 50 indicate contraction. A surprise jump may lead to CAD strength.

Japan

Household Spending (YoY)

Time: 23:30 PM GMT
Forecast: +1.0% | Previous: +2.1%
Description: Measures the inflation-adjusted spending by households.
Why It Matters: A primary indicator of Japanese consumer sentiment and economic growth.
Market Insight: Weak spending could reinforce BoJ's dovish stance; stronger data could firm JPY slightly.

How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Examples

ECB in Focus – Interest Rate and Economic Guidance

In April 2025, the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing its key deposit facility rate down to 2.25%, a significant drop from its 4% peak in mid-2023. The rate cut, which had been widely expected by markets, was prompted by rising global trade tensions that have heightened economic uncertainty and dampened growth prospects across the euro zone. The ECB noted that these tensions were likely to erode confidence among households and businesses while tightening financing conditions due to volatile market reactions. Despite these concerns, the ECB emphasized that the disinflation process remained on track, with underlying inflation measures indicating a sustained return to its 2% medium-term target.

Canada’s Ivey PMI Falls Below 50, Signals Contraction in April

In April, Canadian economic activity contracted, as reflected by the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which fell to a seasonally adjusted 47.9 from 51.3 in March—its lowest level since January. The index, which tracks month-to-month changes in economic activity based on a survey of purchasing managers across Canada, signaled a decline, with any reading below 50 indicating contraction. Employment also weakened for a second consecutive month, with the employment index slipping slightly to 48.0 from 48.2. Meanwhile, the prices paid index dropped to 70.0 from 75.6, suggesting some easing in cost pressures. The unadjusted PMI also declined, falling to 52.3 from 55.6.

Just a Reminder for Index Traders:

Earnings reports are pivotal in driving market sentiment, especially for major indices like the US30 (Dow Jones), S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, DAX40, CAC 40, STOXX50, Nikkei 225, HK50, China50, AUS200, ES35, NETH25, SWI20, and RUSS2000. Surprises from large-cap companies often trigger sharp intraday moves, making earnings releases essential events for stock and index traders to watch closely.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

MiloPlexyTrade · Jun 5, 2025

High-Impact Economic Calendar – Friday, June 6, 2025

Germany

06:00 AM GMT

Balance of Trade

Forecast: €22.6B
Previous: €21.1B
Higher surplus = EUR bullish
Why It Matters:
Indicates global demand for German goods. A rising surplus supports the euro via stronger export performance.

Industrial Production (MoM)

Forecast: -1.2%
Previous: 3.0%
Drop = Bearish for EUR
Why It Matters:
A major growth indicator. Falling output suggests weakening industrial activity and overall economic momentum.

France

06:45 AM GMT

Industrial Production (MoM)

Forecast: 0.3%
Previous: 0.2%
Moderate growth = EUR supportive
Why It Matters:
Gauges the health of France's manufacturing sector. Modest gains point to economic resilience.

Euro Area

09:00 AM GMT

️ Retail Sales (YoY)

Forecast: 1.1%
Previous: 1.5%
⬇️ Slowing growth = EUR bearish
Why It Matters:
Measures annual consumer spending trends across the Eurozone. Slower growth may signal weakening demand.

️ Retail Sales (MoM)

Forecast: -0.3%
Previous: -0.1%
Monthly contraction = Consumer softening
Why It Matters:
Tracks short-term spending behavior. Declines suggest a potential drag on GDP growth.

United States

12:30 PM GMT

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)

Forecast: 0.2%
Previous: 0.2%
Steady wages; upside surprise = USD bullish
Why It Matters:
Key indicator of inflationary pressure. Rising wages can influence Fed interest rate decisions.

Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

Forecast: 130K
Previous: 177K
High-impact release
Why It Matters:
A crucial measure of job creation. Strong prints often spark USD rallies and stock market moves.

Unemployment Rate

Forecast: 4.2%
Previous: 4.2%
⚖️ Flat, but lower = USD bullish
Why It Matters:
Reflects labor market strength. A declining rate could raise expectations for tighter monetary policy.

Canada

12:30 PM GMT

Full-Time Employment Change

Forecast: -10K
Previous: 31.5K

Definition:
Individuals working 30+ hours/week at their main or only job.
Usual Effect:

Actual > Forecast = CAD bullish
Actual < Forecast = CAD bearish

Why Traders Care:
This reflects the quality of job growth. An increase in full-time roles signals economic resilience and supports consumer spending—a key CAD driver.

Employment Change (Total)

Forecast: 5K
Previous: 7.4K

Definition:
Tracks the net number of jobs added or lost during the previous month.
Usual Effect:

Actual > Forecast = CAD bullish
Actual < Forecast = CAD bearish

Why Traders Care:
Job creation is a leading indicator of economic health. More employment leads to higher household income and spending, strengthening the CAD.

Unemployment Rate

Forecast: 7.0%
Previous: 6.9%

Definition:
Percentage of the labor force unemployed and actively looking for work.
Usual Effect:

Actual < Forecast = CAD bullish
Actual > Forecast = CAD bearish

Why Traders Care:
Although lagging, it’s a key barometer of economic strength. Lower unemployment boosts consumer confidence, increasing demand and currency value.

How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Examples

Tracking Canadian Labour – Employment Gains & Jobless Rate

In April, Canada’s labour market showed further signs of strain, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly rising to 6.9%, up from 6.7% the previous month. Despite the increase in joblessness, total employment saw only a modest net gain of 7,400 jobs, largely supported by temporary hiring related to the federal election. Underlying weakness was evident as manufacturing employment fell sharply—particularly in Ontario—due to trade tensions with the U.S., and wage growth slowed to a three-year low. Economists widely viewed the data as soft, with some suggesting it could raise the likelihood of a Bank of Canada rate cut in June.

US Jobs Data – Payrolls, Wage Growth & Unemployment Rate

In April, total nonfarm payroll employment in the U.S. increased by 177,000, slightly above the 12-month average monthly gain of 152,000, reflecting continued labor market resilience. Job growth was led by gains in health care, transportation and warehousing, financial activities, and social assistance, while federal government employment declined by 9,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, with 7.2 million people unemployed, indicating no significant shifts in labor force dynamics. Average hourly earnings for all private nonfarm employees rose by 0.2% month-over-month to $36.06, bringing the year-over-year increase to 3.8%. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings for private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 0.3% to $31.06, suggesting modest but consistent wage growth across worker categories.

Just a Reminder for Index Traders:

Earnings reports are pivotal in driving market sentiment, especially for major indices like the US30 (Dow Jones), S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, DAX40, CAC 40, STOXX50, Nikkei 225, HK50, China50, AUS200, ES35, NETH25, SWI20, and RUSS2000. Surprises from large-cap companies often trigger sharp intraday moves, making earnings releases essential events for stock and index traders to watch closely.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

MiloPlexyTrade · Jun 6, 2025

️China Economic Calendar – June 9, 2025

Time Zone: GMT
Overview: Key economic data out of China, with a focus on inflation and trade — critical for assessing CNY valuation and macro risk sentiment.

01:30 – Inflation & Producer Price Data

Consumer Inflation Rate (YoY)

Forecast: −0.2% | Previous: −0.1%
Key Details: Annual change in consumer prices (CPI)
Market Insight: Actual > Forecast → CNY
Why It Matters: Core inflation metric. Sustained price rises raise the likelihood of tighter monetary policy.

Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY

Forecast: −2.6% | Previous: −2.7%
Key Details: Annual change in input prices paid to producers
Market Insight: Actual > Forecast → CNY
Why It Matters: Signals upstream inflation. Higher PPI may translate into higher CPI.

Consumer Inflation Rate (MoM)

Forecast: 0.0% | Previous: 0.1%
Key Details: Month-over-month change in consumer prices
Market Insight: High reading → CNY | Low → CNY
Why It Matters: Reflects near-term shifts in inflation and consumer purchasing behavior.

03:00 – Trade & External Sector

Imports (YoY)

Forecast: −3.0% | Previous: −0.2%
Key Details: Yearly change in value of imports
Why It Matters: Reflects industrial activity and domestic demand strength.

Exports (YoY)

Forecast: −4.0% | Previous: 8.1%
Key Details: Yearly change in value of exports
Market Insight: Actual > Forecast → CNY
Why It Matters: Higher exports support trade surplus and GDP growth.

Trade Balance (USD)

Forecast: $70B | Previous: $96.18B
Key Details: Net exports reported in USD
Market Insight: Actual > Forecast → CNY
Note: Tentative release time. Often less market-moving due to earlier yuan-based report.

How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Example

China Inflation & Producer Price Trends

In April 2025, China’s factory-gate prices saw their sharpest decline in six months, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) falling 2.7% year-on-year and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropping 0.1% year-on-year for the third straight month, highlighting persistent deflationary pressures amid a prolonged housing slump, high household debt, and weak consumer spending. Core inflation remained unchanged at 0.5%. In response to these challenges, the Chinese government implemented monetary easing measures, including interest rate cuts and liquidity injections, while major retailers like JD.com and Alibaba’s Freshippo supported exporters shifting focus to the domestic market. Despite the start of U.S.-China trade talks in Switzerland, economists noted that tariffs were unlikely to return to pre-April levels, prompting global banks like Goldman Sachs to downgrade China’s 2025 GDP forecast below the official 5% target. However, on May 12, the yuan strengthened and the USD/CNH pair turned bearish following a surprise de-escalation in the trade war, with both nations agreeing to major tariff reductions. This unexpected breakthrough boosted investor confidence and triggered a “risk-on” sentiment, reinforcing support for the yuan despite the weak inflation data.

Just a Reminder for Index Traders:

Earnings reports are pivotal in driving market sentiment, especially for major indices like the US30 (Dow Jones), S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, DAX40, CAC 40, STOXX50, Nikkei 225, HK50, China50, AUS200, ES35, NETH25, SWI20, and RUSS2000. Surprises from large-cap companies often trigger sharp intraday moves, making earnings releases essential events for stock and index traders to watch closely.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

MiloPlexyTrade · Jun 9, 2025

️️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – June 10, 2025

Time Zone: GMT
Focus: High-volatility releases from Australia , UK , and Japan — with market-moving potential for AUD, GBP, and JPY pairs.

AUD 00:30 AM – Consumer Sentiment

Westpac Consumer Confidence Change

Forecast: 2.5% | Previous: 2.2%
Impact: ⚠️ HIGH IMPACT
Details: Monthly change in consumer sentiment diffusion index.
Market Insight: Actual > Forecast → AUD
Why It Matters: Sentiment influences retail spending, a key GDP driver.

AUD 01:30 AM – Business Climate

NAB Business Confidence

Forecast: -3 | Previous: -1
Impact: ⚠️ HIGH IMPACT
Details: Sentiment index from non-farm businesses.
Market Insight: Actual > Forecast → AUD
Why It Matters: Early economic health signal — impacts hiring, investment expectations.

GBP 06:00 AM – Labor Market Data

Unemployment Rate

Forecast: 4.5% | Previous: 4.5%
Impact: HIGH IMPACT
Details: % of workforce unemployed (3-month avg).
Market Insight: Actual < Forecast → GBP
Why It Matters: Key signal for monetary policy and consumer strength.

Employment Change

Forecast: +80K | Previous: +112K
Impact: HIGH IMPACT
Details: 3-month avg change in employment levels (16+).
Market Insight: Higher print → GBP
Why It Matters: Indicates labor market momentum and future wage pressure.

JPY 23:50 PM – Producer Price Inflation

PPI (MoM)

Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.2%
Impact: HIGH IMPACT
Details: Monthly price change of domestic wholesale goods.
Market Insight: Actual > Forecast → JPY
Why It Matters: Early indicator of inflation passed from producers to consumers.

PPI (YoY)

Forecast: 3.4% | Previous: 4.0%
Impact: HIGH IMPACT
Details: Year-over-year wholesale inflation.
Market Insight: Higher PPI = Hawkish BoJ bias → JPY
Why It Matters: Shapes inflation expectations and policy tone.

How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Example

UK Labour Market Overview: Employment Change and Unemployment Rate

In the three months to March 2025, UK employment rose by 112,000—marking the smallest quarterly gain since December 2024 and down from 206,000 in the previous period. The slowdown was largely driven by a decline in full-time employment, though the total number of employed individuals reached 33.98 million. Compared to a year earlier, employment increased significantly by 640,000, with growth seen among both employees and the self-employed. The employment rate for those aged 16 to 64 edged down by 0.1 percentage points to 75.0%, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.5%—its highest level since August 2021—as short-, medium-, and long-term unemployment all increased. The share of people holding second jobs climbed to 3.9% of all employed individuals. Meanwhile, the economic inactivity rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 21.4%.

Japan PPI: +4.0% YoY, +0.2% MoM – Easing Inflation Pressure

Japan’s producer prices rose by 4.0% year-on-year in April 2025, marking the 50th consecutive month of inflation but easing slightly from a revised 4.2% in March. The slowdown reflected softer cost increases across key industrial sectors, including transport equipment, petroleum, electrical and production machinery, while prices for chemicals and iron & steel continued to decline. Month-on-month, producer prices grew by 0.2%, down from 0.4% in March — the sharpest rise in three months. The data pointed to moderating upstream inflation pressures, which supported expectations of a cautious monetary stance from the Bank of Japan. While the easing input costs offered relief to manufacturers, markets viewed the report as mildly negative for the yen, given reduced urgency for policy tightening.

Just a Reminder for Index Traders:

Earnings reports are pivotal in driving market sentiment, especially for major indices like the US30 (Dow Jones), S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, DAX40, CAC 40, STOXX50, Nikkei 225, HK50, China50, AUS200, ES35, NETH25, SWI20, and RUSS2000. Surprises from large-cap companies often trigger sharp intraday moves, making earnings releases essential events for stock and index traders to watch closely.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

MiloPlexyTrade · Jun 10, 2025

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – June 11, 2025

Time Zone: GMT
Focus: Key inflation data from the United States , Canada , and housing market figures from the United Kingdom — with strong implications for USD, CAD, and GBP pairs.

12:30 PM – Inflation Snapshot (YoY)

US Inflation Rate (YoY)
Forecast: 2.5% | Previous: 2.3%
Impact: HIGH IMPACT
Details: Year-over-year change in the prices of consumer goods and services.
Market Insight: Actual > Forecast → USD
Why It Matters: Broad measure of inflation — influences Fed policy and rate hike expectations.

12:30 PM – Core Inflation Check (YoY)

US Core CPI (YoY)
Forecast: 2.9% | Previous: 2.8%
Impact: HIGH IMPACT
Details: Annual inflation excluding food and energy.
Market Insight: Actual > Forecast → USD
Why It Matters: Preferred by the Fed as an indicator of underlying inflation pressure.

12:30 PM – Monthly Inflation Metrics

US Inflation Rate (MoM)
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.2%
Impact: HIGH IMPACT
Details: Month-over-month change in consumer prices.
Market Insight: Actual > Forecast → USD
Why It Matters: Short-term view of inflation trends; persistent strength may force Fed action.

US Core CPI (MoM)
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.2%
Impact: HIGH IMPACT
Details: Monthly price change excluding food and energy categories.
Market Insight: Actual > Forecast → USD
Why It Matters: Strong monthly core inflation supports rate-tightening bias.

12:30 PM – Building Permits

Canada Building Permits (MoM)
Forecast: -0.4% | Previous: -4.1%
Impact: ⚠️ HIGH IMPACT
Details: Monthly change in total value of newly issued building permits.
Market Insight: Actual > Forecast → CAD
Why It Matters: A forward-looking indicator of construction and economic activity.

11:01 PM – Housing Sentiment

UK RICS House Price Balance
Forecast: -4% | Previous: -3%
Impact: ⚠️ HIGH IMPACT
Details: Diffusion index of surveyors’ views on home prices.
Market Insight: Actual > Forecast → GBP
Why It Matters: Offers early insight into the housing market and broader economic sentiment.

How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Example

U.S. CPI Release: Market Reaction and AUD/USD Price Movement

In April 2025, the annual U.S. inflation rate fell to 2.3%, its lowest since February 2021 and below the forecasted 2.4%, according to the Labor Department. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% for the month, while core CPI, excluding food and energy, also increased 0.2% monthly and 2.8% annually—matching expectations. Egg prices dropped 12.7% month-over-month but remained 49.3% higher than a year prior. Shelter costs, accounting for a third of CPI weighting, rose 0.3% and drove more than half of the overall increase. Energy prices rebounded 0.7%, food prices declined 0.1%, and used vehicle prices dropped 0.5%. Amid these tame inflation figures, the potential impact of President Trump’s newly imposed tariffs remained a concern. While a 90-day pause on China tariffs reduced immediate fears, economists anticipated possible inflationary effects starting in May. Despite earlier expectations of interest rate cuts, markets shifted their outlook, anticipating the first Federal Reserve cut in September instead of June, with only two reductions likely in 2025.

Just a Reminder for Index Traders:

Earnings reports are pivotal in driving market sentiment, especially for major indices like the US30 (Dow Jones), S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, DAX40, CAC 40, STOXX50, Nikkei 225, HK50, China50, AUS200, ES35, NETH25, SWI20, and RUSS2000.

Surprises from large-cap companies often trigger sharp intraday moves. But it’s not just the numbers — forward guidance, profit margins, and executive commentary often steer market direction.

During earnings season, expect increased volatility and volume, especially in sectors most affected. Global indices also respond to major U.S. earnings, reflecting the interconnectedness of today's markets.

Stay alert — earnings releases are essential events for both stock and index traders.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

MiloPlexyTrade · Jun 11, 2025

High Impact Economic News Releases — 12th June 2025

⏰ 06:00 AM | United Kingdom
Event: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) MoM
Forecast: 0% | Previous: 0.2%

What it Measures
Month-over-month change in the total value of goods and services produced by the UK economy — the broadest gauge of economic activity.

Usual Effect
If the actual result is greater than the forecast, it is considered positive (bullish) for GBP.

❗ Why Traders Care
GDP is the most comprehensive measure of economic health. Stronger GDP boosts investor confidence, supports the currency, and influences Bank of England policy decisions.

⏰ 06:00 AM | United Kingdom
Event: Industrial Production MoM
Forecast: -0.2% | Previous: -0.7%

What it Measures
Month-over-month change in output from manufacturers, mining, and utilities — sectors that respond quickly to economic shifts.

Usual Effect
If the actual result is greater than the forecast, it is considered positive (bullish) for GBP.

❗ Why Traders Care
Industrial production reflects economic momentum. Rising output can lead to job growth and higher consumption.

⏰ 12:30 PM | United States
Event: Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY
Forecast: 2.3% | Previous: 2.4%

What it Measures
Year-over-year change in the Producer Price Index, reflecting inflation at the wholesale level across multiple sectors.

Usual Effect
If the actual result is greater than the forecast, it is considered positive (bullish) for USD.

❗ Why Traders Care
Producer prices often lead consumer inflation. Rising PPI increases the likelihood of Fed rate hikes and supports the USD.

⏰ 12:30 PM | United States
Event: Producer Price Index (PPI) MoM
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: -0.5%

What it Measures
Month-over-month change in the prices producers receive for finished goods and services.

Usual Effect
If the actual result is greater than the forecast, it is considered positive (bullish) for USD.

❗ Why Traders Care
This figure signals short-term inflation pressures. Higher costs may flow through to consumers and affect monetary policy.

⏰ 12:30 PM | United States
Event: Initial Jobless Claims
Forecast: 250,000 | Previous: 247,000

What it Measures
Weekly count of individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time.

Usual Effect
If the actual result is lower than the forecast, it is considered positive (bullish) for USD.

❗ Why Traders Care
Jobless claims offer insight into labor market strength. Fewer claims signal economic resilience and support USD value.

How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Example

UK Growth and Output Figures Drive GBP/USD Volatility

On May 15, 2025, the UK economy reported a stronger-than-expected GDP growth of 0.7% in Q1, surpassing the forecast of 0.6%. The growth was driven by increased consumer spending, a rebound in exports ahead of impending US tariffs, and a rise in business investment. This was further supported by a 1.1% quarterly increase in industrial production, marking the first such rise in a year. Manufacturing led the rebound, especially in transport equipment and machinery, though monthly data showed a -0.7% dip in March, suggesting some end-of-quarter volatility. While UK officials welcomed the data as a sign of recovery, analysts warned the boost may be temporary due to front-loaded activity and looming tax hikes.

Meanwhile, the United States reported a sharp -0.5% drop in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for April — the largest monthly decline since records began in 2009 — primarily due to falling margins in trade services. This signaled cooling inflationary pressures at the producer level. Additionally, weekly jobless claims rose to 247,000, the highest level in seven months, pointing to signs of a softening labor market. The combination of weakening producer prices and rising unemployment claims indicated growing economic headwinds in the US, likely influencing expectations around future Federal Reserve policy moves.

Producer Prices & Jobless Claims Data

In April 2025, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand fell by 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis, marking the largest monthly drop since April 2020. This decline was primarily driven by a 0.7% decrease in final demand services, especially due to a 1.6% fall in trade service margins, with machinery and vehicle wholesaling margins dropping 6.1%. Conversely, final demand goods prices remained flat, with core goods (excluding food and energy) rising 0.4%, while food and energy prices declined. On a year-over-year basis, the PPI rose 2.4%, while core PPI (excluding food, energy, and trade services) increased 2.9%. In labor data, initial jobless claims for the week ending May 10 were steady at 229,000, while the four-week average rose to 230,500. The insured unemployment rate held at 1.2%, with continuing claims rising slightly to 1.88 million.

Just a Reminder for Index Traders:

Earnings reports are pivotal in driving market sentiment, especially for major indices like the US30 (Dow Jones), S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, DAX40, CAC 40, STOXX50, Nikkei 225, HK50, China50, AUS200, ES35, NETH25, SWI20, and RUSS2000.

Surprises from large-cap companies often trigger sharp intraday moves. But it’s not just the numbers — forward guidance, profit margins, and executive commentary often steer market direction.

During earnings season, expect increased volatility and volume, especially in sectors most affected. Global indices also respond to major U.S. earnings, reflecting the interconnectedness of today's markets.

Stay alert — earnings releases are essential events for both stock and index traders.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

MiloPlexyTrade · Jun 12, 2025

Economic Calendar – Friday, June 13, 2025

09:00 AM GMT – Euro Area Industrial Production (MoM)

Forecast: -1.8%
Previous: 2.6%
Impact Level: High
What It Measures:
Monthly change in inflation-adjusted output across manufacturing, mining, and utilities.
Why It Matters:
A key leading indicator of economic activity. Industrial production reacts swiftly to changes in demand and correlates closely with employment and wage trends.
Market Implication:
➕ Better-than-expected = Bullish for EUR
➖ Worse-than-expected = Bearish for EUR

️14:00 PM GMT – U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary)

Forecast: 52.1
Previous: 52.2
Impact Level: High
What It Measures:
A composite index based on consumer surveys about personal finances, economic outlook, and buying conditions.
Why It Matters:
Consumer confidence is a forward-looking gauge of spending, which drives nearly 70% of U.S. GDP. It’s also a sentiment signal for broader economic conditions.
Market Implication:
➕ Stronger reading = Bullish for USD
➖ Weaker reading = Bearish for USD

How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Example

U.S. Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations Drive EUR/USD Volatility

U.S. consumer sentiment deteriorated in May, with the University of Michigan index falling to 50.8, down from 52.2 in April, marking the second-lowest reading on record, only behind June 2022. The decline reflected rising anxiety about inflation and trade policy. According to the survey, nearly 75% of respondents spontaneously cited tariffs as a major concern—up from 60% the previous month—highlighting how trade tensions increasingly shaped public perception of the economy.

Inflation expectations also climbed sharply: 1-year expectations rose to 7.3%, from 6.5% in April, while 5-year expectations increased to 4.6%, from 4.4%. These figures were critical for the Federal Reserve, which has closely monitored long-term expectations to assess whether inflationary pressures were becoming entrenched. Fed Chair Jerome Powell had previously emphasized that any rise in expectations tied to tariffs could delay or derail interest rate cuts.

Although a 90-day tariff pause between the U.S. and China was announced during the survey period, most of the responses had been collected before the announcement, meaning the potential positive impact was not captured in the data. Despite the pause, effective tariff rates remained significantly higher than pre-2017 levels, sustaining pressure on prices.

Just a Reminder for Index Traders:

Earnings reports are pivotal in driving market sentiment, especially for major indices like the US30 (Dow Jones), S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, DAX40, CAC 40, STOXX50, Nikkei 225, HK50, China50, AUS200, ES35, NETH25, SWI20, and RUSS2000.

Surprises from large-cap companies often trigger sharp intraday moves. But it’s not just the numbers — forward guidance, profit margins, and executive commentary often steer market direction.

During earnings season, expect increased volatility and volume, especially in sectors most affected. Global indices also respond to major U.S. earnings, reflecting the interconnectedness of today's markets.

Stay alert — earnings releases are essential events for both stock and index traders.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

MiloPlexyTrade · Jun 13, 2025

️ High-Impact News – June 16, 2025

China – 02:00 AM GMT

Industrial Production YoY
Forecast: 5.5% | Previous: 6.1%
Measures: Inflation-adjusted output from manufacturing, mining, and utilities
✅ Better-than-forecast = CNY bullish
Why it matters: A key early indicator of economic health tied to the business cycle

Retail Sales YoY
Forecast: 4.7% | Previous: 5.1%
Measures: Total value of sales at the retail level
✅ Better-than-forecast = CNY bullish
Why it matters: Primary gauge of consumer spending—crucial to economic growth

Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 5.1% | Previous: 5.1%
Measures: Urban workforce unemployment
✅ Lower-than-forecast = CNY bullish
Why it matters: Strong labor data supports consumer confidence and monetary stability

United States – 12:30 PM GMT

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
Forecast: -8 | Previous: -9.2
Measures: Business conditions for NY manufacturers
✅ Better-than-forecast = USD bullish
Why it matters: Sentiment-based, early signal of shifts in economic activity and investment

How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Example

USDJPY Reaction to U.S. Data – May 15, 2025

The U.S. dollar showed mixed movement following a series of key data releases. The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.5% in April—its sharpest drop in services since records began—signaling cooling inflation and reducing expectations for further Fed tightening. Core PPI also edged down for the first time since 2020.

Meanwhile, retail sales rose a modest 0.1%, slightly above expectations, but the momentum looks weak after strong March figures likely boosted by tariff-driven buying. Jobless claims remained elevated at 229,000, pointing to a softening labor market.

Manufacturing data remained bearish. The Empire State Index stayed deep in negative territory at -9.2, while the Philly Fed Survey improved but still came in negative, with rising cost pressures.

**Just a Reminder for Index Traders:

Earnings reports are pivotal in driving market sentiment, especially for major indices like the US30 (Dow Jones), S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, DAX40, CAC 40, STOXX50, Nikkei 225, HK50, China50, AUS200, ES35, NETH25, SWI20, and RUSS2000.

Surprises from large-cap companies often trigger sharp intraday moves. But it’s not just the numbers — forward guidance, profit margins, and executive commentary often steer market direction.

During earnings season, expect increased volatility and volume, especially in sectors most affected. Global indices also respond to major U.S. earnings, reflecting the interconnectedness of today's markets.

Stay alert — earnings releases are essential events for both stock and index traders.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

MiloPlexyTrade · Jun 16, 2025

Global Economic Calendar – Tuesday, June 17, 2025

03:00 AM GMT – Japan: Bank of Japan (BoJ) Interest Rate Decision

Forecast: 0.50% | Previous: 0.50%
The BoJ is expected to hold rates steady amid fragile inflation and wage growth concerns.
Why it matters: As Japan slowly exits its ultra-loose monetary policy era, any surprise shift could significantly impact JPY pairs. Traders watch for tone and guidance on future tightening.

09:00 AM GMT – Germany: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index

Forecast: 32.0 | Previous: 25.2
Survey of over 300 German institutional investors and analysts, gauging 6-month economic outlook.
Why it matters: Rising sentiment often precedes real economic momentum. A beat here could boost EUR and European equity indices.

12:30 PM GMT – U.S.: Retail Sales (MoM)

Forecast: -0.2% | Previous: 0.1%
Reflects monthly consumer spending trends—key for 70% of U.S. GDP.
Why it matters: A decline may signal consumer fatigue and slow GDP growth. Weak data could add pressure on the Fed to pivot more dovishly.

12:30 PM GMT – U.S.: Retail Sales (YoY)

Forecast: 4.9% | Previous: 5.2%
Year-over-year view of consumer demand.
Why it matters: Still-strong annual growth supports economic resilience, but a slowdown could reflect real wage stagnation and rising debt burdens.

13:15 PM GMT – U.S.: Industrial Production (MoM)

Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.0%
Captures inflation-adjusted output across manufacturing, mining, and utilities.
Why it matters: Often viewed as a leading economic indicator. A beat may support USD and strengthen market optimism, especially in cyclical sectors.

23:50 PM GMT – Japan: Exports (YoY)

Forecast: -6.2% | Previous: -2.2%
Exports are central to Japan’s GDP, especially in machinery and tech sectors.
Why it matters: A sharper-than-expected decline would signal weakening global demand, weighing on JPY and Japanese equities.

23:50 PM GMT – Japan: Balance of Trade

Forecast: ¥870B | Previous: ¥115.8B
Net difference between export and import values.
Why it matters: A larger surplus indicates strong export performance or weak import demand. Impacts currency flows and investor sentiment on Japan’s external position.

23:50 PM GMT – Japan: Machinery Orders (YoY)

Forecast: 3.8% | Previous: 8.4%
Excludes highly volatile ship and electric utility orders; reflects private sector capital investment.
Why it matters: A sharp drop may suggest declining business confidence, impacting forecasts for future industrial output.

23:50 PM GMT – Japan: Machinery Orders (MoM)

Forecast: -9.0% | Previous: 13.0%
Month-over-month volatility often reflects major contract wins or cancellations.
Why it matters: A steep monthly drop may unsettle JPY traders and equity investors expecting sustained capital expenditure growth.

How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Example

Yen Weakened After BoJ Cut Growth Forecasts Despite Steady Rates

In its May meeting, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its key short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, the highest level since 2008, aligning with market expectations. The unanimous decision came amid concerns over the potential impact of U.S. President Trump's tariff measures on global growth. The BoJ, which is in trade negotiations with Washington, signaled it may raise rates if economic conditions support it. In its updated quarterly outlook, the BoJ cut its FY 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% from 1.0%, citing trade risks and policy uncertainty, and also lowered the FY 2026 projection to 0.7%. Core inflation forecasts were trimmed to 2.2% for FY 2025 and 1.7% for FY 2026, before a slight recovery to 1.9% in FY 2027, while headline inflation was expected to stay near 2% through March 2028.

Just a Reminder for Index Traders:

Earnings reports are pivotal in driving market sentiment, especially for major indices like the US30 (Dow Jones), S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, DAX40, CAC 40, STOXX50, Nikkei 225, HK50, China50, AUS200, ES35, NETH25, SWI20, and RUSS2000.

Surprises from large-cap companies often trigger sharp intraday moves. But it’s not just the numbers — forward guidance, profit margins, and executive commentary often steer market direction.

During earnings season, expect increased volatility and volume, especially in sectors most affected. Global indices also respond to major U.S. earnings, reflecting the interconnectedness of today's markets.

Stay alert — earnings releases are essential events for both stock and index traders.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

MiloPlexyTrade · Tuesday at 11:22

Global Economic Calendar – Tuesday, June 18, 2025

06:00 AM GMT – United Kingdom: Inflation Data

Inflation Rate (YoY)
Forecast: 3.5% | Previous: 3.5%
Measures changes in the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services over 12 months.
Why it matters: Inflation influences Bank of England policy. Persistent price pressure may push rate hikes.
Inflation Rate (MoM)
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 1.2%
Tracks month-over-month consumer price changes.
Why it matters: Sharp deceleration may signal softening demand pressures.
Core Inflation Rate (YoY)
Forecast: 3.8% | Previous: 3.8%
Excludes volatile items (food, energy, alcohol, tobacco).
Why it matters: Closely watched by policymakers for long-term trend clarity.
Core Inflation Rate (MoM)
Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 1.4%
Focuses on stable price trends excluding seasonal volatility.
Why it matters: Provides a clearer signal of underlying inflation.

12:30 PM GMT – United States: Housing & Labor Market

Building Permits (MoM)
Forecast: -1.5% | Previous: -4.0%
Measures new permits issued for future housing construction.
Why it matters: Early indicator of construction activity and economic confidence.
Housing Starts (MoM)
Forecast: -0.8% | Previous: 1.6%
Reflects initiation of new residential construction.
Why it matters: Impacts GDP and signals broader housing market health.
Initial Jobless Claims
Forecast: 255K | Previous: 248K
Tracks weekly applications for unemployment benefits.
Why it matters: Lower claims signal a stronger labor market and consumer spending outlook.

18:00 PM GMT – United States: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision

Forecast: 4.5% | Previous: 4.5%
Benchmark interest rate for interbank lending.
Why it matters: A cornerstone event for USD and global markets. Hints at future rate cuts could drive volatility.

18:30 PM GMT – United States: Fed Press Conference

️ Speaker: Fed Chair
Press briefing following the rate announcement.
Why it matters: Powell’s tone and guidance on inflation and policy path are market-moving.

22:45 PM GMT – New Zealand: GDP Report

GDP Growth Rate (QoQ)
Forecast: 0.7% | Previous: 0.7%
Quarterly economic growth adjusted for inflation.
Why it matters: Strong growth may influence RBNZ rate policy and NZD direction.
GDP Growth Rate (YoY)
Forecast: -1.0% | Previous: -1.1%
Annualized snapshot of economic health.
Why it matters: Negative growth raises recession concerns and policy easing expectations.

How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Examples

GBP/USD Reacts to UK Inflation Surprise

In April 2025, the U.K.’s annual inflation rate rose to 3.5%, exceeding economists’ expectations of 3.3%, according to the Office for National Statistics. This marked a reversal from the recent cooling trend, where inflation had dropped to 2.8% in February and 2.6% in March. Core inflation climbed to 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March, driven by rising costs in housing, transport, and recreation, while clothing and footwear provided a slight offset. Notably, electricity, gas, and other fuels surged 6.7% YoY, and water and sewerage charges spiked 26.1% MoM — the sharpest increase since at least 1988. British Chancellor Rachel Reeves expressed disappointment, acknowledging continued cost-of-living pressures. The rise followed April’s energy price cap adjustment, domestic business tax hikes, and seasonal factors like Easter and favorable weather. Despite the Bank of England’s recent rate cut to 4.25%, the data has sparked concern among policymakers, with some committee members feeling validated for opposing the cut. While the BoE had anticipated a temporary inflation rise to 3.7% in Q3, it vowed that future rate cuts would be “gradual and careful.” This comes as preliminary GDP data showed a robust 0.7% Q1 growth, attributed to pre-tariff activity and tax timing. Analysts believe U.K. inflation remains on a longer-term downward path, potentially allowing for more rate cuts later in the year.

XAU/USD Volatility Spikes Post-Fed as Markets Digest Stagflation Risk

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25%-4.5% during its May 7, 2025 meeting, marking no change since December. The Fed cited rising economic uncertainty and growing risks of both inflation and unemployment, amid market volatility and concerns over President Trump's escalating tariff policies. In its post-meeting statement, the Fed acknowledged the dual threats of slowing growth and higher prices, hinting at a potential stagflationary environment. While not directly addressing tariffs, Chair Jerome Powell discussed their impact in the press conference, emphasizing that the economy remained "in solid shape" despite a 0.3% GDP contraction in Q1. Job growth continued, with 177,000 nonfarm payrolls added in April and the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%. However, inflation hovered around the Fed's 2% target, with tariff-driven price pressures looming. The Fed gave no signal of an imminent rate cut, and market expectations for future easing remained mixed.

Just a Reminder for Index Traders:

Earnings reports are pivotal in driving market sentiment, especially for major indices like the US30 (Dow Jones), S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, DAX40, CAC 40, STOXX50, Nikkei 225, HK50, China50, AUS200, ES35, NETH25, SWI20, and RUSS2000.
Surprises from large-cap companies often trigger sharp intraday moves. But it’s not just the numbers — forward guidance, profit margins, and executive commentary often steer market direction.
During earnings season, expect increased volatility and volume, especially in sectors most affected. Global indices also respond to major U.S. earnings, reflecting the interconnectedness of today's markets.
Stay alert — earnings releases are essential events for both stock and index traders.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

MiloPlexyTrade · Wednesday at 15:06

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – June 19, 2025
Time Zone: GMT
Focus: Major releases from Australia , Switzerland , UK , and Japan — with high-volatility potential for AUD, CHF, GBP, and JPY currency pairs.

01:30 AM AU – Employment Data (Market Mover for AUD)

Unemployment Rate: Forecast: 4.1% | Previous: 4.1%
No change expected, but any surprise lower could fuel AUD strength.
Employment Change: Forecast: 15K | Previous: 89K
A sharp slowdown expected. A print above forecast would ease slowdown fears.
Full-Time Employment Change: ‍ Forecast: 20K | Previous: 59.5K
Strong full-time job growth supports consumer confidence and AUD buying.

Why it matters: Australia’s labour market data is a key indicator of economic health and a major influence on monetary policy decisions. Strong employment figures—particularly in full-time roles—can reinforce expectations of a tighter stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia, supporting the outlook for the AUD.

07:30 AM CH – SNB Interest Rate Decision

Forecast: 0.00% | Previous: 0.25%
A cut would align SNB with global dovish trends and weigh on CHF.
Markets will be watching the policy statement for inflation outlook hints.

Why it matters: The Swiss National Bank remains one of the few central banks still considering further easing. Any adjustment in tone or policy could influence market sentiment and impact CHF volatility across the board.

11:00 AM GB – BoE Interest Rate Decision

Forecast: 4.25% | Previous: 4.25%
No change expected, but close attention on vote split and forward guidance.
If hawkish tones remain, GBP could find support despite flat rates.

Why it matters: Persistent inflation pressures have led the Bank of England to maintain a comparatively hawkish stance. Even if rates remain unchanged, the policy statement and vote split will be closely scrutinized for signals on the Bank’s inflation outlook and future rate path, both of which can influence GBP sentiment.

23:30 PM JP – Inflation Data (Key for BoJ Policy Outlook)

Inflation Rate MoM: Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.1%
Core Inflation YoY: Forecast: 3.6% | Previous: 3.5%
Headline Inflation YoY: Forecast: 3.6% | Previous: 3.6%

Why it matters: With the BoJ under pressure to tighten, stable or rising inflation supports the case for further policy normalization. JPY pairs could move on even small deviations.

How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Examples

GBP/USD Reacts to BoE Rate Cut and Trade War Fears

The Bank of England cut interest rates from 4.5% to 4.25%, citing weaker economic prospects and lower inflation due in part to higher tariffs linked to Donald Trump's trade war. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was split, with five members voting for the cut, two preferring a deeper reduction to 4%, and two voting to hold at 4.5%. The Bank indicated further cuts could follow but stressed a cautious approach. Governor Andrew Bailey noted that easing inflation allowed for the move and welcomed the anticipated UK-US trade deal as a way to reduce economic uncertainty. While growth was revised up to 1% due to a strong first quarter, the Bank acknowledged that underlying growth remained weak, and inflation was expected to peak at 3.5% before falling below 2% by next year.

Australian Labour Surge Fails to Sustain AUD/USD Amid U.S. Dollar Rebound

Although Australia’s labour market data on May 15, 2025, was very strong—showing an 89K surge in employment—AUD/USD turned bearish after an initial spike. The pair rose sharply following the release but then reversed due to profit-taking, caution ahead of key U.S. data, and later, U.S. dollar strength. Several high-impact U.S. releases, including Core PPI, Retail Sales, and comments from Fed Chair Powell, shifted market focus to the USD. As a result, despite the bullish domestic data, AUD/USD fell as global attention moved to the U.S. outlook, highlighting that AUD/USD is influenced by both AUD and USD fundamentals.

Reminder for Index Traders:

Earnings reports are a key driver of market sentiment, particularly across major indices such as the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, DAX40, and others.

Unexpected results from large-cap companies can prompt sharp intraday movements—not only due to headline figures, but also based on forward guidance, margins, and executive commentary.

As earnings season unfolds, anticipate heightened volatility and trading volume, especially as global indices increasingly reflect major U.S. corporate outcomes.

Remain vigilant — earnings season presents both opportunity and elevated risk.

Keep a close watch on geopolitical tensions, as they can heavily influence market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and affect global equity performance.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

MiloPlexyTrade · Thursday at 14:44

High-Impact Economic Calendar – Friday, June 20, 2025

Time Zone: GMT
Focus: Key data from the UK , Germany , United States , and Canada — high market-moving potential for GBP, EUR, USD, and CAD pairs.

06:00 – UK Retail Sales

Retail Sales YoY
▪ Forecast: 1.6% | Previous: 5.0%
▪ Indicates the annual change in consumer spending.
Retail Sales MoM
▪ Forecast: -0.7% | Previous: 1.2%
▪ A key gauge of monthly consumer activity. Better-than-expected figures typically support GBP.

Why it matters: Retail sales are a primary indicator of consumer spending, which is a major driver of overall economic growth in the UK.

06:00 – Germany Producer Price Index (PPI)

PPI YoY
▪ Forecast: -1.2% | Previous: -0.9%
PPI MoM
▪ Forecast: -0.3% | Previous: -0.6%

Why it matters: PPI tracks inflation at the wholesale level. Persistently low or negative readings may raise deflation concerns and influence ECB policy expectations.

12:30 – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

Forecast: 1.0 | Previous: -4.0
▪ A value above 0 indicates improving conditions; below 0 indicates contraction.

Why it matters: This is a leading indicator of economic activity. Improvements often boost USD as they hint at stronger future output, investment, and hiring.

12:30 – Canada Retail Sales & PPI

Retail Sales MoM
▪ Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.5%
Retail Sales YoY
▪ Forecast: 3.4% | Previous: 5.6%
PPI YoY
▪ Forecast: 2.3% | Previous: 2.0%
PPI MoM
▪ Forecast: -0.3% | Previous: -0.8%

Why it matters: These figures reflect both consumer activity and upstream price pressures. A strong beat could reinforce expectations of a tighter monetary stance from the Bank of Canada.

14:00 – US CB Leading Index MoM

Forecast: -0.2% | Previous: -1.0%
▪ A broad measure of future economic conditions based on 10 indicators.

Why it matters: This composite index offers insight into future economic momentum. A weaker reading could pressure USD if concerns about economic slowdown grow.

How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Example

How GBP/USD Reacted to Strong UK Retail Sales Data

Reminder for Index Traders:

Earnings reports are a key driver of market sentiment, particularly across major indices such as the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, DAX40, and others.

Unexpected results from large-cap companies can prompt sharp intraday movements—not only due to headline figures, but also based on forward guidance, margins, and executive commentary.

As earnings season unfolds, anticipate heightened volatility and trading volume, especially as global indices increasingly reflect major U.S. corporate outcomes.

Remain vigilant — earnings season presents both opportunity and elevated risk.

Keep a close watch on geopolitical tensions, as they can heavily influence market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and affect global equity performance.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

MiloPlexyTrade · Friday at 15:10

High-Impact Economic Calendar

Time Zone: GMT
For: Sunday, June 22 & Monday, June 23, 2025
These scheduled releases are closely watched by traders and are likely to trigger volatility in currencies such as AUD, EUR, GBP, and USD. Keep an eye on potential moves in related markets as investors react to early economic signals from major economies.

Sunday – June 22, 2025

23:00 — Australia: S&P Global Flash PMIs
Australia’s economy kicks off the week with key PMI data. These forward-looking indicators offer an early read on business sentiment and economic momentum.

Services PMI Flash
• Forecast: 50.1 | Previous: 50.6
• Reflects business activity in Australia’s dominant services sector.
Manufacturing PMI Flash
• Forecast: 50.5 | Previous: 51.0
• Gauges performance in Australia’s industrial and export-sensitive manufacturing sector.
Composite PMI Flash
• Forecast: 50.2 | Previous: 50.5
• A weighted average of services and manufacturing — the most holistic early-month snapshot of private-sector health.

Why it matters:
PMI readings above 50 indicate expansion, while below 50 signals contraction. These indicators often drive AUD volatility and influence expectations around RBA policy direction.

Monday – June 23, 2025

07:30 — Germany: HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash

• Forecast: 49.1 | Previous: 48.3
Germany’s manufacturing sector continues to recover slowly.
A stronger-than-expected reading would support the euro and help gauge the Eurozone’s industrial momentum.

08:30 — United Kingdom: S&P Global Flash PMIs
A full suite of PMI data offers early insight into UK economic conditions — a key focus for GBP traders and BoE policy watchers.

Composite PMI
• Forecast: 50.4 | Previous: 50.3
• A broad overview of UK business activity.
Manufacturing PMI
• Forecast: 46.6 | Previous: 46.4
• Ongoing contraction, though a slight improvement is expected.
Services PMI
• Forecast: 50.5 | Previous: 50.9
• Still in growth territory but easing slightly — crucial as services dominate UK GDP.

Why it matters:
The Bank of England monitors this data closely. Surprises often impact UK bond yields, FTSE movement, and sterling strength.

13:45 — United States: S&P Global Flash PMIs
U.S. PMI figures are high-frequency signals of business conditions across the world’s largest economy.

Composite PMI
• Forecast: 53.1 | Previous: 53.0
Services PMI
• Forecast: 54.0 | Previous: 53.7
Manufacturing PMI
• Forecast: 52.0 | Previous: 52.0

Why it matters:
The Fed closely watches PMI trends for signs of inflation or economic slowdown. These numbers can move the USD, Treasuries, and equity markets.

14:00 — United States: Housing Market Data

Existing Home Sales
• Forecast: 3.90M | Previous: 4.00M
MoM Change in Sales
• Forecast: -2.5% | Previous: -0.5%

Why it matters:
Housing is a major driver of U.S. economic activity. Weak figures may pressure consumer sentiment and signal slower growth. Important for traders watching real estate, consumer stocks, and Fed policy tone.

How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Examples

GBP/USD Drops After PMI Reveals Mixed UK Outlook

23-06-22-05-S&P-Global-Composite-PMI-Flash-GBP.png

Although the UK S&P Global Composite PMI was revised up to 50.3 in May—signaling a slight return to growth—GBP/USD reacted bearishly. Despite the upward revision, the report revealed continued weakness in the UK economy: manufacturing remained in contraction, new business declined for the sixth straight month, and employment dropped again. While services showed modest improvement, the overall data pointed to fragile momentum, prompting a cautious market response and pressure on the pound.

Housing Market Shows Strain as Sales Fall, Prices Hit New High

In April 2025, U.S. existing-home sales edged down by 0.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million, marking a 2% decline compared to the previous year. Despite the slowdown, the median sales price rose to a record $414,000 for April, extending a 22-month streak of year-over-year price increases. Housing inventory increased by 9% from March to 1.45 million units, offering 4.4 months of supply at the current pace. Sales declined in the Northeast and West, grew in the Midwest, and remained flat in the South. While overall demand remained suppressed, elevated inventory levels gave buyers more leverage, even as affordability continued to challenge first-time buyers.

Reminder for Index Traders:

Earnings reports are a key driver of market sentiment, particularly across major indices such as the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, DAX40, and others. Unexpected results from large-cap companies can prompt sharp intraday movements—not only due to headline figures, but also based on forward guidance, margins, and executive commentary. As earnings season unfolds, anticipate heightened volatility and trading volume, especially as global indices increasingly reflect major U.S. corporate outcomes. Remain vigilant — earnings season presents both opportunity and elevated risk.

Keep a close watch on geopolitical tensions, as they can heavily influence market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and affect global equity performance.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

How News Moved the Market previously + What’s Lined Up Tomorrow

Active Trader

GfK Consumer Confidence (06:00 AM GMT)​

Durable Goods Orders MoM (12:30 PM GMT)​

CB Consumer Confidence (14:00 PM GMT)​

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (14:30 PM GMT)​

Active Trader

01:30 AM GMT – Australia Monthly CPI Indicator​

06:45 AM GMT – France Producer Price Index (YoY & MoM)​

07:55 AM GMT – Germany Unemployment Rate​

14:00 PM GMT – U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index​

Attachments

Active Trader

05:00 AM GMT – Japan Consumer Confidence​

23:30 PM GMT – Japan Unemployment Rate​

23:50 PM GMT – Japan Industrial Production (MoM)​

23:50 PM GMT – Japan Retail Sales (MoM & YoY)​

Attachments

Active Trader

Heads-Up: Consumer, Inflation & Manufacturing Data Incoming​

01:30 AM GMT – Australia Building Permits (MoM, Prelim)​

01:30 AM GMT – Australia Retail Sales (MoM)​

06:00 AM GMT – Germany Retail Sales (YoY)​

06:00 AM GMT – Germany Retail Sales (MoM)​

12:00 PM GMT – Germany Inflation Rate (MoM, Prelim)​

12:00 PM GMT – Germany Inflation Rate (YoY, Prelim)​

12:30 PM GMT – U.S. Personal Income (MoM)​

12:30 PM GMT – U.S. Core PCE Price Index (YoY)​

13:45 PM GMT – U.S. Chicago PMI​

Just a Reminder for Index Traders:​

Attachments

Active Trader

Chart Insight:​

Chart Insight:​

06:30 AM GMT – Switzerland Retail Sales (YoY)​

06:30 AM GMT – Switzerland Retail Sales (MoM)​

07:00 AM GMT – Switzerland GDP Growth Rate (QoQ)​

Active Trader

Daily Trade Setups & News Reactions | June 3​

How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Examples​

Switzerland Inflation Rate – YoY & MoM​

Tracking Labor Demand – JOLTS Job Openings​

Active Trader

High Impact Economic News Releases — 4th June 2025​

⏰ 01:30 AM GMT |​

What it Measures​

Usual Effect​

❗ Why Traders Care​

⏰ 01:30 AM GMT |​

What it Measures​

Usual Effect​

❗ Why Traders Care​

⏰ 12:15 PM GMT |​

What it Measures​

Usual Effect​

❗ Why Traders Care​

⏰ 01:45 PM GMT |​

Usual Effect​

❗ Why Traders Care​

⏰ 02:00 PM GMT |​

What it Measures​

Usual Effect​

❗ Why Traders Care​

How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Examples​

Slowing Labor Momentum – ADP Payrolls Miss Expectations​

Monitoring U.S. Service Economy Activity​

Just a Reminder for Index Traders:​

Attachments

Active Trader

High -Impact Economic Events - Thursday, 5 June 2025​

Asia-Pacific​

Australia Balance of Trade​

China Caixin Services PMI​

Switzerland Unemployment Rate​

Germany Factory Orders (MoM)​

Eurozone​

Euro Area PPI (YoY)​

ECB Interest Rate Decision​

ECB Deposit Facility Rate​

ECB Press Conference​

GfK Consumer Confidence (06:00 AM GMT)

Durable Goods Orders MoM (12:30 PM GMT)

CB Consumer Confidence (14:00 PM GMT)

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (14:30 PM GMT)

01:30 AM GMT – Australia Monthly CPI Indicator

06:45 AM GMT – France Producer Price Index (YoY & MoM)

07:55 AM GMT – Germany Unemployment Rate

14:00 PM GMT – U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

05:00 AM GMT – Japan Consumer Confidence

23:30 PM GMT – Japan Unemployment Rate

23:50 PM GMT – Japan Industrial Production (MoM)

23:50 PM GMT – Japan Retail Sales (MoM & YoY)

Heads-Up: Consumer, Inflation & Manufacturing Data Incoming

01:30 AM GMT – Australia Building Permits (MoM, Prelim)

01:30 AM GMT – Australia Retail Sales (MoM)

06:00 AM GMT – Germany Retail Sales (YoY)

06:00 AM GMT – Germany Retail Sales (MoM)

12:00 PM GMT – Germany Inflation Rate (MoM, Prelim)

12:00 PM GMT – Germany Inflation Rate (YoY, Prelim)

12:30 PM GMT – U.S. Personal Income (MoM)

12:30 PM GMT – U.S. Core PCE Price Index (YoY)

13:45 PM GMT – U.S. Chicago PMI

Just a Reminder for Index Traders:

Chart Insight:

Chart Insight:

06:30 AM GMT – Switzerland Retail Sales (YoY)

06:30 AM GMT – Switzerland Retail Sales (MoM)

07:00 AM GMT – Switzerland GDP Growth Rate (QoQ)

Daily Trade Setups & News Reactions | June 3

How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Examples

Switzerland Inflation Rate – YoY & MoM

Tracking Labor Demand – JOLTS Job Openings

High Impact Economic News Releases — 4th June 2025

⏰ 01:30 AM GMT |

What it Measures

Usual Effect

❗ Why Traders Care

⏰ 01:30 AM GMT |

What it Measures

Usual Effect

❗ Why Traders Care

⏰ 12:15 PM GMT |

What it Measures

Usual Effect

❗ Why Traders Care

⏰ 01:45 PM GMT |

Usual Effect

❗ Why Traders Care

⏰ 02:00 PM GMT |

What it Measures

Usual Effect

❗ Why Traders Care

How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Examples

Slowing Labor Momentum – ADP Payrolls Miss Expectations

Monitoring U.S. Service Economy Activity

Just a Reminder for Index Traders:

High -Impact Economic Events - Thursday, 5 June 2025

Asia-Pacific

Australia Balance of Trade

China Caixin Services PMI

Switzerland Unemployment Rate

Germany Factory Orders (MoM)

Eurozone

Euro Area PPI (YoY)

ECB Interest Rate Decision

ECB Deposit Facility Rate

ECB Press Conference

United States

Initial Jobless Claims

Canada

Canada Trade Balance

Ivey PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Japan

Household Spending (YoY)

How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Examples

ECB in Focus – Interest Rate and Economic Guidance

Canada’s Ivey PMI Falls Below 50, Signals Contraction in April

High-Impact Economic Calendar – Friday, June 6, 2025

Germany

Balance of Trade