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[HFM]

Date : 6th May 2022.

Market Update – May 6 – Massive U-turn ahead of NFP.


The markets did a big U-turn after Wednesday’s post-FOMC rally, and the pop in rates hammered Wall Street. Along with positioning, the recent massive swings in the markets and mostly bearish tones have been fostered by escalating fears over inflation, an overly aggressive tightening path from the Fed, and increasing angst over slowing growth, in other words, “stagflation.” That potential was imbedded in the Q1 productivity report that revealed near record contraction in productivity as well as unit labour costs, leaving a hollow ring to Chair Powell’s beliefs that the Fed can tame inflation and that the economy can achieve a “softish” landing with a “significant chance” of avoiding a “significant slowdown, or a big jump in unemployment.”

RBA flags further tightening ahead. The RBA said in its quarterly monetary policy report that it will need to raise interest rates further, against the background of tightening labour markets that risk triggering a wage price spiral.

• USDIndex at a 5th winning week – breached 103.95. Currently at 103.84 ahead of US jobs report that is likely to back the case for aggressive monetary policy tightening.
• Equities – was crushed by the revived hawkish outlook and the pop in yields. The USA100 dove over -5% but finished with a -4.99% decline. The USA500 tumbled -3.56%, with the USA30 -3.12% lower.
• Yields 10-year up 17 bps to 3.105%, with the 2-year up 10 bps to 2.738%.
• Oil climbed to 111.36 high, after the Biden administration outlined a plan to refill oil reserves (SPR). But it has dropped right back down to 109.34. Reportedly, the Department of Energy will put out a tender for 60 mln barrels in the fall, according to an unnamed source. But the purchases will be at some time in the future, which saw the price fall back. Having the government an assured buyer should provide some support. Meanwhile, the looming EU ban on Russian oil imports and the less hawkish than feared FOMC result have helped calm fears. There were no surprises from OPEC which stuck to its plan for a modest hike in output.
• Gold drifted back to 1866 as the USD and Treasury yields rallied.
• Bitcoin tumbled 8% overnight, hitting at 35,278.
• FX markets – EURUSD at 1.0508, USDJPY holds above the 130.50, Cable down to 1.2333. AUD turns below 0.7100.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPCHF (-0.73%) declined in the EU open at 1.2157, with next support to 1.2114. MAs & Stochastics bearishly crossed, and RSI is at 36 sloping lower. H1 ATR 0.00169, Daily ATR 0.01081.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 25th October 2024.

UK Debt Set To Rise: How Will the GBP React?

• The UK Chancellor looks to change Fiscal Policy in order to allow the UK to borrow 70 million GBP more.
• The IMF increases its forecast for the UK economy to recover this year from 0.7% to 1.1%. UK PMI data underachieved on Thursday.
• The NASDAQ increases 0.55% as Tesla’s latest earnings data increase shareholder sentiment.
• The US Dollar Index retraces after increasing in value for 4 consecutive weeks.

GBPUSD – UK To Change Fiscal Policy To Increase Debt Levels!

The GBPUSD exchange rate trades slightly lower during this morning’s asian session but looks to be regaining momentum. In addition to this, the GBPUSD continues to remain below most Moving Averages despite the upward price movement on Thursday. The downward price movement on Thursday was largely due to a decline in the US Dollar and not necessarily the Pound strengthening. For this week, the British Pound has fallen 0.65% against the currency market and traders will closely watch the Pound’s reaction to the UK’s Autumn budget.



The US Dollar is the best performing currency of the past 7 days and is the best performing of the day so far. The US Dollar continues to be supported by significant economic data. This includes the Weekly Unemployment Claims which fell to 227,000, New Home Sales rising to 738,000 and Flash PMI data reading slightly higher than previous expectations.

The Beige Book made public yesterday indicates that economic activity remained steady in September 2024. However, companies reported a modest uptick in hiring, a general easing of inflation pressures, and input costs rising faster than sales prices, which impacted business profitability. Lastly, the Federal Reserve continues to support the US Dollar as the market predicts a 0.25% rate cut.

The Bank of England on the other hand are likely to cut interest rates at the next meeting but it is not clear whether the BoE will cut 0.25% or 0.50%. Meanwhile, investors are watching the Autumn budget set for October 30th with a close eye. The UK Chancellor is looking to change Fiscal Policy in order to allow the UK to borrow 70 million GBP more. This could be a challenge and if global investors are not comfortable with the risk, this could pressure the Pound. This is something also previously seen under the Truss administration, but economists do not expect such a sharp nosedive. Lastly, yesterday’s UK PMI data for both the Services and Manufacturing sectors fell lower than the previous month and lower than current expectations.

However, if the price of the GBPUSD continues to decline, where does technical analysis point to a trigger point? As the price retraces back to the previous swing high, traders will look for the price to regain momentum before speculating a decline. The latest bullish swing measures 0.14%. Therefore if the price falls below 1.29618, investors will consider the momentum an opportunity. This will also push the price back below the 200-bar SMA on the 5-Minute Chart.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 14th July 2025.

Global Markets Weekly: Trade Tensions, Bitcoin & Silver Surge.

Asian Markets Mixed as Trade Tensions and Earnings Season Take Centre Stage​

Asian equities showed mixed performance on Monday, following a subdued session on Wall Street where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreated slightly from last week’s record highs. Market sentiment remained cautious as investors assessed the impact of renewed trade tensions and prepared for a busy week of corporate earnings.

Trump's Tariff Threats Stir Global Trade Concerns​

US President Donald Trump over the weekend announced plans to implement 30% tariffs on imports from Mexico and the European Union, starting August 1. Though the news created headlines, markets reacted calmly as analysts anticipate progress in negotiations before the deadline. In response, the Mexican peso slightly weakened, trading at 18.6 per US dollar.

Further fueling tensions, Trump also hinted at raising tariffs on Canadian imports to 35%, along with potential 200% tariffs on pharmaceutical drugs and a 50% tariff on copper. The European Union has already prepared a retaliatory tariff package worth €21 billion ($24.52 billion), according to Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani.

Chinese Trade Surplus Hits Record Despite US Decline​

China ended the first half of the year with a record trade surplus of approximately $586 billion. June exports rose 5.8% year-over-year to $325 billion, while imports climbed 1.1% for the first time since February. Although exports to the US dropped 16.1%, Chinese firms offset the decline with a 17% surge in shipments to ASEAN nations.

"China's trade resisted pressure and progressed in the first half of the year," noted Wang Lingjun, deputy head of the General Administration of Customs. However, he warned that rising protectionism continues to pose risks to global trade.

Silver Nears 14-Year High Amid Supply Concerns​

Silver prices approached a 14-year peak, driven by strong investor demand and speculation over potential US tariffs on industrial metals. Spot silver rose as much as 1.6% in Asian trading, building on last week’s 4% surge. The one-month borrowing cost for silver spiked above 6%, signalling tight supply conditions.

Analysts highlight silver’s appeal as both a safe-haven asset and an industrial input, particularly for solar panels. The metal is up 35% year-to-date, outpacing gold’s 28% rise, with 2025 likely marking the fifth consecutive year of supply deficits, according to the Silver Institute.

Bitcoin Breaks Records as Crypto Momentum Builds​

Bitcoin soared to a new all-time high of $122,065, gaining 3.6% early Monday. The cryptocurrency has climbed 29% in 2025, bolstered by a bullish trend in risk assets and increased institutional interest. The rally coincides with Nvidia reaching a $4 trillion market cap and the launch of ‘Crypto Week’ in the US Congress, where lawmakers will debate new regulatory frameworks for digital assets.

Wall Street Cautious Ahead of Earnings and CPI Data​

Friday saw US stocks end the week on a negative note, with the S&P 500 down 0.3% to 6,259.75, the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.6% to 44,371.51, and the Nasdaq Composite slipping 0.2% to 20,585.53. The pullback followed record-setting highs earlier in the week.

Investors are turning their attention to key inflation data and corporate earnings. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), due Tuesday, is expected to influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision set for later this month.

Big US banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup, are scheduled to report quarterly results, providing insight into the IPO and M&A landscape. Netflix will kick off earnings for tech giants, while ASML and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing are expected to offer updates on the AI chip boom. Other key earnings include PepsiCo, United Airlines, and American Express.

Oil and Currency Markets Remain Stable​

In commodity markets, US crude edged up 9 cents to $68.54 per barrel, while Brent crude rose 10 cents to $70.46. On the currency front, the dollar dipped to 147.36 yen, and the euro fell to $1.1659.

With escalating trade tensions, volatile commodity prices, and major corporate earnings ahead, markets are bracing for another eventful week. Investors will be watching for clarity on global trade policies and signals from the Fed as they navigate a landscape marked by uncertainty and opportunity.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 28th July 2025.

Markets Rally as US-EU Tariff Deal Calms Trade War Fears.

Financial markets and policymakers are cautiously optimistic that the feared economic fallout from Liberation Day may not fully materialise. Expectations of weak growth and surging inflation have started to ease, while optimism is building that trade tensions may be less damaging than anticipated. However, uncertainty remains elevated, with the August 1 tariff deadline fast approaching.

Although we’re not out of the woods yet, recent developments suggest the path forward could be less volatile. The range of potential tariff outcomes has narrowed, and active trade negotiations are gradually clearing the fog. Still, the global economy continues to navigate a ‘wait-and-see’ landscape, and this week’s calendar is packed with central bank meetings, critical data releases, earnings reports, and bond supply that will shape investor sentiment.

US-EU Trade Agreement: A Fragile Truce​

Over the weekend, the United States and the European Union struck a much-anticipated trade deal, agreeing to implement a 15% levy on a wide range of European exports, including autos. The outcome aligns closely with previous warnings from Brussels, offering a sense of relief that the standoff did not escalate further.

The EU had prepared countermeasures that may have targeted US services—an area where the US runs a strong surplus with the bloc—but those plans came too late to influence the negotiations. Critics argue that Brussels should have taken a firmer approach earlier in the process. However, in the end, EU officials prioritised swift resolution and market stability, which now appears to have been the right call—equity markets surged to four-month highs following the announcement.

As part of the agreement, the EU also pledged to purchase $750 billion in US energy products—a bold commitment considering the region’s recent pivot away from Russian gas toward US LNG. The bloc also committed to buying more US military equipment, in line with recent arms support agreements for Ukraine and NATO cooperation. Bloomberg Economics estimates that the new deal prevents the average effective US tariff rate from rising to 18%, keeping it at a more manageable 16%.

Market Reaction: Risk Appetite Improves​

Equity markets responded positively to the news. The Euro Stoxx 50 posted a 0.6% gain, while the DAX lagged slightly but still closed higher. Southern European indices like the MIB and IBEX led the region’s rally. US futures also pointed higher, buoyed by the improved trade outlook.

In Asia, Chinese stocks ended the day in the green, reflecting hopes that Washington and Beijing will extend their current trade truce. The Nikkei, however, slipped more than 1%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 edged down by 0.1%. In bond markets, eurozone yields declined as investors digested cautious commentary from ECB officials, while US Treasury yields ticked higher, with the 10-year rate approaching 4.40%.

FX Markets: Dollar Gains on Trade Optimism​

Currency markets reflected the surge in risk appetite and the recalibration of rate expectations. The US dollar gained 0.6% intraday, with the DXY index trading near 98.26. The euro weakened against the greenback, dropping 0.8% to 1.166, a move likely welcomed by European exporters and policymakers, as a softer currency helps offset some of the tariff impact.

Sterling outperformed earlier in the session but later pulled back, with GBPUSD correcting to 1.34. Meanwhile, the dollar gained ground against the franc and yen, rising 0.8% versus the Swiss franc and 0.5% against the yen, bringing USDJPY to 148.39.

Commodities: Oil Climbs, Gold Eases​

Oil prices moved higher in tandem with stocks, as the trade agreement boosted global demand expectations. WTI rose 1.3% to $66.01 per barrel, while Brent gained 1.2% to $69.28. Investors now await further developments in US-China talks scheduled later today, with hopes that both sides will agree to extend their current truce.

Gold prices were largely steady after a pre-weekend dip driven by stronger dollar sentiment and fading rate-cut bets. With the tariff deal confirmed and markets adjusting to tighter policy guidance, gold slipped modestly to $3,336.21 per ounce. Silver and copper also posted minor declines, down 0.15% and 0.28%, respectively. Copper prices, however, remain elevated ahead of a planned 50% tariff on US copper imports, set to take effect August 1.

ECB Stays on Hold, Keeps Options Open​

The European Central Bank kept interest rates steady, with President Lagarde signalling that policymakers will retain flexibility ahead of the September meeting. While inflation fears have receded slightly, Lagarde made it clear that rate cuts are not guaranteed and that future decisions will depend heavily on incoming economic data and geopolitical developments.

Her message was echoed by ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir, who warned against assuming a rate cut is imminent. He emphasised that only clear signs of labour market weakness would justify further easing. While recent inflation data is reassuring, Kazimir stressed the importance of vigilance, particularly in light of potential supply chain disruptions that could reignite price pressures.

Outlook: Trade Relief Is Welcome, But Uncertainty Persists​

The US-EU trade agreement has provided temporary relief to markets, reducing tariff risks and boosting investor sentiment. Yet the broader picture remains uncertain. The August 1 deadline still looms, geopolitical tensions persist, and monetary policy paths are far from settled.

As the global economy enters a critical phase, traders and investors will continue to monitor developments in trade policy, central bank decisions, and macroeconomic data. For now, markets are breathing a little easier—but the long-term trajectory is still unfolding.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.