Gold

Discussion in 'Commodities, Stocks, and Indices' started by ddukic, Sep 20, 2012.

  1. ddukic

    ddukic Trader

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    Gold 20/09/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

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    GOLD – 4 HOURS CHART

    COMMENTS: Please observe how the traders confirm and re-confirm a certain level in order to reduce their uncertainty. This way, the Gold’s price “tried” already three times the 6.85 Fib grade-level at 1.779,91usd. Obviously, the supporting action of the 50SMA helped the recent activity of the price. It is rare to observe a waves’ sequence of similar time frame exceed the 6.85 Fib grade-level. If it happens, the price will continue moving in a different-longer time frame-time cycle frame. Otherwise, at the present level you will observe the beginning of a correction that by the passing of time may develop in trend reversal.
    SUGGESTIONS: For as long as the price remains above the 50SMA you keep “long” direction eventually increasing your long exposure. Attention though, the increase of exposure requires tight follow up of the price evolution. You should not leave your monitor un-attended. Once the price crosses from above the 50SMA and the U1 trend line you must consider the “short” direction. The downwards target is set at the level of the 200SMA at the time of crossing with the falling price, an attractive risk/reward ratio.
     
  2. ddukic

    ddukic Trader

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    Gold 28/09/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

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    GOLD – 4 HOURS CHART

    COMMENTS: A glorious chart. This is a chart for a seminar on technical analysis. The precision of the Fibo scale measuring the ascent of the Gold’s price since the 16th of May 2012 (this is back 4 and half months and about 250usd/oz) is very interesting. At the right top of the chart I estimated the next Fibo grade of this scale, at the level of 1.952,70usd/oz. Indeed, small “initial swings” extended, often, their exhaustion to the grade of 11,35 as shown in ths chart.

    SUGGESTIONS: Today Friday, the Gold’s price will create a new local high as a result of the traders to “dribble” the “double top” set up. In most cases the proof of a strong top or bottom is a little away from the strong level itself. Is like the poker players paying just to see another deck card. In the meantime, the 50SMA will assist, if needed, supporting a short pull back, another “dribble” as Lionel Messi does. The channel appearing, at this stage guiding the price is denominated by the U4a and U4b blue trend lines clearly shown in the chart.

    SUGGESTIONS: Whoever believed the 5.78 Fibo grade and yesterday decided to use it as support level thus opened long positions is a happy man/lady. Friends, keep them opened and cross your fingers that Gold’s price today, apart from the small additional profit that will most probably offer you, exceeds the “double top” psychological complex of most traders and continues its way looking at the stars. Stop loss for long positions the down crossing of the U1 blue trend line. If you want to protect some of your profits, set a trailing stop loss. Anyway, short positions will be considered only after the down crossing of the U1 trend line.
     
  3. ddukic

    ddukic Trader

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    Gold 02/10/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

    Gold 02/10/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

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    GOLD

    COMMENTS: I insisted that my Fibo scale, installed since many days in this position was a correct and successful forecast. The evolution of the Gold’s price proved me right. You see, the repeated efforts of the price to exceed the level of 1.784,17 usd, corresponding to the 6.85 grade of the mentioned Fibo scale, proved unsuccessful. The 6.85 Fibo grade is a far outside grade very close to the psychological limit of “greediness” particularly in the cases where its achievement is rapid. In other words, if you could multiply your investment by 6.85 times in short period of time, you have reached at a point where satisfaction is fulfilled and greediness is ready to take over. Most people avoid greediness and exit their positions, obviously trying to exit at the highest possible level. This is why you observe this side move up here. Several holders of long positions are closing them by “selling” them. This is how you close a long position. You sell it. Others which have long positions temporize waiting to see the evolution. Obviously, some others are buying up here constituting, most probably, the next losers.

    SUGGESTIONS: Well according to my previous comments I can suggest to minimize or exit your long positions up here. In case the price continues upwards there is space and time to return opening long positions. The next target is some 200usd/oz higher. Whether to open or not short positions? I will suggest not to. The risk/reward ratio is not in your favor. You will take a risk that will be disproportionally high compared to the eventual profits.
     
  4. ddukic

    ddukic Trader

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    Gold 03/10/2012 - 4h Chart Review and Analysis

    Gold 03/10/2012 - 4h Chart Review and Analysis

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    GOLD 4 HOURS CHART

    SUGGESTIONS: Same as the Oil chart. Traders move with discipline performing the absolute minimum trades to justify their salaries and unconvinced about the near future. As you may understand, when someone feels sure, convinced about an issue, any issue, even issues pertaining to personal life’s matters, he/she acts quickly and with determination. This is the moment that trends are created. Otherwise, all of us, slow down, we temporize, we want more evidences to make up our minds, “in bref” we hover around a decision that we don’t want to take. In trading similar circumstances should find you without positions. You have nothing to win staying in this limbo status.
     
  5. ddukic

    ddukic Trader

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    Gold 04/10/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

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    GOLD 4 HOURS CHART

    SUGGESTIONS: You know?, when the price in a chart moves fairly fast is kind of easier to predict the next target/s or path. If the price is moving very fast, you better stay away, thus is still easy. When though the price starts “muffing” like a blue cheese because it does not move or barely moves the technical analysis despairs. Anyway, the above chart bears still unbroken technical elements. The channel U4a – U4b is still intact and may end up guiding the Gold’s price. At the same time, our friends, the institutional traders extremely disciplined and full of patient kneed with the needle a dense sous-plat assisted by the support of the 50SMA. So, what to do? The short positions are the cheapest at this point. Obviously everyone knows that. Obviously, our friends the traders will suddenly and briefly pull up the price in order to burn the stop loses before allowing the price to fall. This is the scenario after the “distribution” performed up here. The opposite scenario, where the “accumulation” performed up here will push the price up will require long positions that if opened here will cost a lot as stop loss since its level is set at the price of 1.744,10USD. Make up your mind. Wait to see a little more of this “movie” and then make your bet.
     
  6. ddukic

    ddukic Trader

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    Gold 08/10/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

    Gold 08/10/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

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    GOLD 4 HOURS CHART

    SUGGESTIONS: Sometimes you may wonder about the disciplined shown by the traders. Observe the 4 hours chart for Gold. The range between 1.744 and 1.784 usd has been for the last twenty days the traders’ “daily allowance” of risk. The time elapsing obviously mutates the technical elements sustaining the basis of certain forecasts, nevertheless, forecasts and trading strategies described in my last Gold analysis are still reliable. In addition, please note that a couple more re-confirmations of the U1 trend line solidity will push the price of Gold higher.
     
  7. ddukic

    ddukic Trader

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    Gold 7/11/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

    Gold 7/11/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

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    GOLD 4 HOURS CHART

    SUGGESTIONS: Ouaou !! What a “rebound”. My friend Barak won the elections and the Gold became more expensive.

    So, I hope that my friends the “Bears” will be already in their caves enjoying the profits made.

    The “Bulls” are already on the scene. They are confident and ready to earn their share of earnings. So, my friends please keep your long positions opened. The next level to watch and defend your self is the level of the 200SMA. Above the 200SMA you have the opportunity to “attack” by increasing your long exposure.
     
  8. ddukic

    ddukic Trader

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    Gold 08/11/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

    Gold 08/11/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

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    GOLD 4 HOURS CHART

    SUGGESTIONS: There is no much change similar to the one observed in some currency pairs. The Gold kept the level gained on the announcement of the winner of the American Elections. There was a shortly lived increase of volatility but the level was finally kept.

    There is a kind of “triple top” set up at the level of 1.730,83usd, as well as a “head and shoulders” set up designed during the sessions of the last five days.

    So, I imagine that my friends the “Bears” are already out of the party. In your place I would have stayed out of the party until the price gives signs of downwards move.

    The ‘Bulls” stay cool with their long positions opened. At this point I suggest you a “trailing stop loss” strategy in order to secure some of the running profits you enjoy now. Otherwise, technically speaking the stop loss of the long positions is set below the 1.673,32usd.
     
  9. ddukic

    ddukic Trader

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    Gold 09/11/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

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    GOLD 4 HOURS CHART

    SUGGESTIONS: I mentioned in previous comments that a “head and shoulders” set up was forming after the up move of the price on the announcement of Obamas re-election. “Whatever does not go down, goes up”, experienced traders sustain. So, the price moved up. At this right moment is under the 200SMA and pretty soon in the day we will observe its evolution. Don’t forget to consult the Fibo Retr scale marked with blue arrow. This Fibo scale measures the reaction’s extension against the fall from the level of 1.788,33 till the level of 1.673,32usd.

    Whoever was on long running positions stays cool and waits the result of the “meeting” between the price and the 200SMA. Please note that such meeting may last several trading hours. Obviously, by now, you know what to do above the 200SMA or below it.
     
  10. ddukic

    ddukic Trader

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    Gold 12/11/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

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    GOLD 4 HOURS CHART

    SUGGESTIONS: The Gold’s price encountered the 200SMA and as expected, faithful to the manuals of technical analysis, bended its path.

    I have added a ret trend line: “D1” between the 200SMA and the previous high level of 1.795,16usd on October 5th. If this D1 trend line “stands” during the next few days it will probably play a significant role for the development of the parity’s path. In conjunction to this D1 trend line, the parallel D2, creating a channel, the “D1-D2”, may also develop to the lower part of the zone within this parity may move in the near-medium term future.

    As far as trading strategies is concerned please note:

    Existing long positions reduce their long exposure and wait to see the developments. Set a “trailing stop loss” to protect some profits, or, close the long positions in case the price does fall further. Above the 200SMA you increase again your exposure.

    The newly opened timid short positions set a stop loss above the 200SMA and wait. To increase the short exposure you should wait for the development of a set up indicating downwards in order to identify the target levels and evaluate the corresponding risk/reward ratios.
     
  11. ddukic

    ddukic Trader

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    Gold 13/11/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

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    GOLD 4 HOURS CHART

    SUGGESTIONS: Looking at this 4 hours chart of Gold, after the facts, it looks very easy to have accurately traded the evolution of this price.

    Look at the double effort of the price to cross from below the 200SMA. The efforts failed and the price, for the time being, reversed. Will it continue to move downward?

    GOLD 4 HOURS CHART (ZOOMED)

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    SUGGESTIONS: The failed double effort actually constitutes a “1-2 Waves” set up. I have inserted a Fibo scale marked with a red arrow that estimates the extension of the eventual falling continuation.

    As you can observe, the technical elements of the 4 hours chart normally posted on the site are still evident on this zoomed chart.

    Now, let us experiment. If you don’t want to use money, use a paper-trade mode.

    I would not open a short position now because “the train already travels”. I will wait the next “station” to get on board with a timid long position. If my stop loss is hit, I close the position. I will wait for some time to see the evolution of the price and then I will open a position to the direction of the trend. To the next resistance or support level I will reduce my exposure. I will set a stop loss and then wait. If the stop loss is hit the position will close. At this point, I return to the opening of a timid position. In case the price continues evolving as per the trend, I increase the exposure of my opened position and I keep it running till the next resisting or supporting level. Again reduction of the exposure i.e. “defense”.

    Please try it. On the paper does not cost anything provided you do it seriously, as if a lot of money were involved.

    Further down I am posting a zoomed chart on the specific failed double effort in order to experiment together the accuracy of a trading strategy.
     
  12. ddukic

    ddukic Trader

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    Gold 14/11/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

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    GOLD 4 HOURS CHART

    SUGGESTIONS: The price was repeatedly resisted by the 200SMA for the last 4 trading sessions. We all understand that a fall is eminent. Otherwise, we need a “firework” to motivate the traders push the price above the 200SMA

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    SUGGESTIONS: The price is compressed by the 200 and 50 SMAs. The technical analysis set up that is created since the 5th of November 2012 is called “flag”, “pennant” or other similar names because it looks like. Please be alert. Please be informed about the mentioned set ups and their possible evolutions.
     
  13. ddukic

    ddukic Trader

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    Gold 16/11/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

    Gold 16/11/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

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    GOLD 4 HOURS CHART

    SUGGESTIONS: The manual of technical analysis is very clear. After three unsuccessful efforts to overcome the 200SMA of a 4 hours chart, the parity/price reverses. Now, will the price of Gold “return” to test the U3 blue trend line? My forecast says “YES”. So, any newly opened short positions remain opened with stop loss the tandem of the two SMAS that will cross in short time.

    You open Long positions only after the crossing from below of the 200SMA level.
     
  14. ddukic

    ddukic Trader

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    Gold 21/11/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

    Gold 21/11/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

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    GOLD 4 HOURS CHART

    SUGGESTIONS: This is a complicated chart because it includes many technical elements. In my opinion, most of them are necessary. So, please be patient.

    So, re-entering and staying in the D1-D2 channel will oblige the opening and relative maintenance of short positions. In the contrary sense, the respect of the u1-u2 blue upwards channel by the price, will oblige us to keep opened the eventual long positions already running and slightly increase the present long exposure.
    There are many analysts talking about the correlation between the USD and Gold. Please read the relative article in fxlisting.net.

    Thanks
     
  15. ddukic

    ddukic Trader

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    Gold 22/11/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

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    GOLD 4 HOURS CHART

    SUGGESTIONS: It is not safe to forecast the Gold’s price evolution during the Thanks giving day in the USA.

    Nevertheless, the main question is: Is the correction, from 1.795 usd level to the one of 1.689 usd, a “pull back” or the “A” leg of a major correction to be followed by the “B’ and “C” legs so to fulfill Elliott’s theory about corrections composed by three legs, “A-B-C”?

    The correction on the 0.38 grade of a Fibo Retr scale does not clarify the evolution. The previously observed long term increase of the Gold’s price can easily accept as “pull back” a correction up to the 0.38 grade of the relative Retr Fibo scale.

    Anyway, the long positions should remain opened. The u1-u2 up channel is respected and the price is hovering above the tandem of the two SMAs, the 50 and 200 periods, promising further up movement provided the 1.733 usd level is crossed from below.

    “Bears”, please stay away. Is not your time, unless you can masquerade in “Bulls”.
     

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