Oil - Technical Analysis

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by ddukic, Sep 28, 2012.

  1. ddukic

    ddukic Trader

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    Oil 27/09/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

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    OIL 4 HOURS CHART

    COMMENTS: If you had the chance to view the video trading analysis posted yesterday forecasting the evolution of the Oil’s price, you had already appreciate its accuracy. Sooner or later the price will try to test the 50SMA by loosing time either, by side stepping, or, by a fast short correction. In case the price does reverse at the 0.382 Fibo grade instead of continuing its fall, the present correction is an internal “pull back” to be followed by a main trend continuation that will take the price above the 100usd level. Vice-versa, in case the price continues falling below the 0.382 Fibo grade, the reliability of a scenario wanting the price to return rising is reduced. In this case the price will target levels around the 80,00usd (0.618 and 0.78 Fibo grades as shown in the chart).
    SUGGESTIONS: I hope you are holding short positions as a result of the strategy we set up yesterday. Hang in there, Reduce a little your “speed” in other words “short exposure” but hang in the short positions. Once, below the 0.382 Fibo grade, you re-accelerate. Stop loss, if you want to follow the popular saying: “cut your losses short and leave you profits running”, I suggest you to apply a “trailing stop loss” strategy. The stop level that closes completely your short position is above the 91,46usd. For new short positions wait the developments of the Fibo grade 0,382. Long positions must be considered after the finalization of the “love story” between the price and the 0.382 Fibo grade. Until then you keep quit and calm.
     
  2. ddukic

    ddukic Trader

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    Oil 01/10/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

    Oil 01/10/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

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    COMMENTS: There is not much to comment at this time of Monday regarding the Oil. I added the blue trend line U signaling two significant lows and marked the existing red channel d1-d2. Now, the trend line coming from 1 Dec 2009 is a strong psychological level therefore the Oil’s price hovers around it waiting for the opportunity to move away. At the same time, the price is below the 50SMA that is playing its resisting role.
    SUGGESTIONS: Opened short positions from earlier remain opened looking to increase their short exposure in case the price moves below the two “U” trend lines. Obviously, the continuation of the Oil’s price residing above the two mentioned “U” trend lines and the eventual up breaking of the 50SMA, must be taken seriously into account and eventually force us to anticipate an eventual up move of the price with negative consequences for our short positions. We will anticipate, either, by drastically reducing our short exposure, or, by closing our positions and eventually turn them into long positions. In this way I also described the stop loss strategy of the already opened short positions. Now, for the ones wanting to open new short positions, please wait. It is not the right time. The two U trend lines and their aura generate a supportive environment that needs time to be weakening by the traders. It is evident that below these two “U” trend lines there is “glorious” space for new short positions. About long positions. I am not sure about existing and running long positions. If any, please close them below the “U” trend lines and AMEN. You can though start new long positions of small exposure to anticipate the eventual strong reaction at this level resulting to a reversal of the recent up to now correction into a return to upwards move. In this case stop loss level should be the one little below the U trend line/s.
     
  3. ddukic

    ddukic Trader

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    Oil 02/10/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

    Oil 02/10/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

    http://fxlisting.net/images/oil240-02102012.jpg

    OIL

    COMMENTS: A positive trading session the one of yesterday. The price exceeded the 50SMA and thus creates the prospect for an upward continuation. As we said in our yesterday’s comments on Oil the supporting area created by the two “U” blue trend lines were enforcing a supporting zone that would eventually break downwards after severe selling pressure. SUGGESTIONS: Please use the same suggestions of yesterday. Strategically are still valid. Don’t forget the sudden volatility Oil presents quiet often. For your easy reference I quote here below the Suggestions of yesterday:

    QUOTE

    “SUGGESTIONS: Opened short positions from earlier remain opened looking to increase their short exposure in case the price moves below the two “U” trend lines. Obviously, the continuation of the Oil’s price residing above the two mentioned “U” trend lines and the eventual up breaking of the 50SMA, must be taken seriously into account and eventually force us to anticipate an eventual up move of the price with negative consequences for our short positions. We will anticipate, either, by drastically reducing our short exposure, or, by closing our positions and eventually turn them into long positions. In this way I also described the stop loss strategy of the already opened short positions. Now, for the ones wanting to open new short positions, please wait. It is not the right time. The two U trend lines and their aura generate a supportive environment that needs time to be weakening by the traders. It is evident that below these two “U” trend lines there is “glorious” space for new short positions. About long positions. I am not sure about existing and running long positions. If any, please close them below the “U” trend lines and AMEN. You can though start new long positions of small exposure to anticipate the eventual strong reaction at this level resulting to a reversal of the recent up to now correction into a return to upwards move. In this case stop loss level should be the one little below the U trend line/s.

    UNQUOTE
     
  4. ddukic

    ddukic Trader

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    Oil 03/10/2012 - 4h Chart Review and Analysis

    Oil 03/10/2012 - 4h Chart Review and Analysis

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    SUGGESTIONS: There is nothing to add here. The Comments of yesterday and Suggestions of yesterday apply again. There was no significant change justifying a major change of your strategies. Anyway, this is a ‘Long” environment.
     
  5. ddukic

    ddukic Trader

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    Oil 04/10/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

    Oil 04/10/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

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    OIL 4 HOURS CHART

    SUGGESTIONS: Oh!! Finally. This is how significant support or resistance levels are “broken”, violently. The traders do not wait until doomsday for the conviction of many more other traders so in a “massive” number to “break” through. A team of brokers take the risk and anticipate all others. By saying traders I am not referring to the CFD Retail Traders but I am referring to the institutional traders of central banks, banks and large financial institutions. So, what is next? The friends with short position must apply a “trailing stop” strategy in order to protect the achieved but not yet realized profits and be ready at the next turning pivot to switch their positions from short to long. Any friend wanting to open long positions must wait. The red channel d1-d2 may develop to the “road map” the price will follow before reversing to a corrective move. Oil moves fast when traders make up their mind. The truth is that all financial instruments move fast under the same hypothesis. In my opinion, the reversing target will be at the 0.78 Fibo grade of the Fibo scale marked with red arrow. He,he,he !! Good luck guys
     
  6. ddukic

    ddukic Trader

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    Oil 08/10/2012 - Daily Chart Analysis

    Oil 08/10/2012 - Daily Chart Analysis

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    OIL DAILY CHART

    SUGGESTIONS: Observing the daily chart of Crude Oil I can say that presents, trading wise an interesting picture. The expression trading wise does not refer to up or down. It reflects to the situation the price lays in respect with a future evolution that can offer a favorable risk/reward ration and is easily forecasted (point of entry, stop loss and eventually take profits level/s). So, observe the price below the “U” trend line, a trend line coming from the 1st of December 2009,

    almost three years back, and the set up of the red channels eventual guides of a potentially strong fall of the price. Obviously the continuation of the price’s path below the 0.50 grade of the relevant Fibo scale would increase the reliability of the falling scenario. Otherwise, another zigzag in front.
     
  7. ddukic

    ddukic Trader

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    Oil 06/11/2012 - Chart Review and Analysis

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    CRUDE OIL DAILY CHART

    SUGGESTIONS: No fast evolution observed since I posted an analysis on the Oil.

    I added a red channel that may guide the evolution of the Oil’s price in the near future. Until then we expect to observe the “meeting” of the price with the U1 trend line. The “outcome” will signal the “what next”.
     
  8. ddukic

    ddukic Trader

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    Oil 12/11/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

    Oil 12/11/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

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    CRUDE OIL DAILY CHART

    SUGGESTIONS:

    Last week was a stabilizing trading period for the Oil’s price. As you can observe at the end of the last falling part of the graph there are several daily bars signaling this stabilization.

    In my opinion, the price will low up to the U1 blue trend line before presenting any signals for the continuation. Don’t forget that 77.07usd constitutes a level confirmed several times in the recent past of few months.

    My friends the “Bears” keep your short positions. You suffer the roll over cost but you are after a risk/reward ration that worth trying. My stop loss is above the tandem of the two SMAs. I know is expensive but is possible that the price tries it before moving again “south”. I am leaving to you the way to handle it.

    “Bulls” wake up. There is a chance to open small long positions at the encounter of the U1 blue trend line. Stop loss immediately below.
     
  9. ddukic

    ddukic Trader

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    Oil 21/11/2012 - Daily Chart Analysis

    Oil 21/11/2012 - Daily Chart Analysis

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    OIL DAILY CHART

    SUGGESTIONS: Today, the entire financial instruments look correlated to the EUR/USD evolution. Observe the red candle of yesterday, in a way, the Oil moved in anticipation of the down gap of EUR/USD observed this morning.
     

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