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GetKnowTrading: EURUSD Chart Analysis
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Weekly EURUSD Technical Analysis: A Market at a Crossroads
The weekly EURUSD chart reveals a primary trend that has shifted from a clear bullish recovery to a state of neutral-to-bearish consolidation. After a vigorous rally from the 2024 lows near 1.0266, price action peaked below 1.2093 in mid-2025 and has since established a series of lower highs, suggesting waning bullish momentum . This is confirmed by the RSI(14) reading of 50.66, sitting precisely on the midline and indicating a complete absence of directional momentum. Furthermore, the MACD (12,26,9), while showing a recent bullish crossover, remains in negative territory, signalling weak upside traction . The current market structure is best described as a broad consolidation range, which multiple analyses interpret as either a descending triangle or a complex double top pattern forming on the weekly timeframe .
From a classical price action perspective, the most significant levels are clearly defined. The immediate and most crucial support is the 1.1575–1.1581 zone, a multi-touch level that has acted as a firm floor since early 2025 . A confirmed weekly close below this level would be a major bearish development. Conversely, the primary resistance stands at 1.1727–1.1750, a zone that has capped advances for over a year and represents the descending trendline of the potential triangle . The broader structure is viewed by some as a massive double top pattern with a neckline near 1.1362, which would come into play on a breakdown below the immediate support . The extended consolidation inside this 200-pip range points to market indecision and a coiled state, indicating that the next breakout is likely to be significant . The overall market structure is a tense standoff between bulls defending the 1.1575 support and bears holding the line at 1.1727 resistance, with price currently pivoting around the 1.1626 weekly close .
Looking forward, the current structure presents two clear and contrasting scenarios. The bearish scenario is triggered by a weekly close below the critical 1.1575 support. This would validate the descending triangle or the right shoulder of a double top pattern, likely accelerating selling pressure towards the 1.1450–1.1362 zone . A break below this would confirm a major bearish reversal, potentially targeting the 1.0996 area and even the 2024 lows near 1.0266 . Conversely, the bullish scenario requires a decisive weekly close above the 1.1727 resistance. Such a breakout would invalidate the bearish patterns and signal a resumption of the long-term uptrend. This would need to be supported by a strong shift in momentum, likely targeting the 1.1850 area first, with the 1.2000 psychological level as the next major objective . Fundamental catalysts, such as a weaker USD from Fed rate cuts, or stronger Eurozone growth and fiscal spending, would be necessary to drive this bullish resolution .
Trade Setup Summary:
Given the neutral to bearish market structure, a high-probability approach is to wait for the market to show its hand. The prudent strategy is to favor the bearish bias on a confirmed breakdown, entering a short position on a weekly close below 1.1560, with a stop-loss placed above the resistance at 1.1730 to protect against a false breakout. The initial take-profit target would be 1.1450, offering a favorable risk-reward ratio . For a bullish trade, one should wait for a confirmed breakout above 1.1730, entering a long position with a stop-loss below the support at 1.1570 and a take-profit at 1.1850 . Until a clear break outside the 1.1575–1.1727 range is confirmed on a weekly closing basis, the most professional stance is to remain neutral, allowing price action to define the next significant trend .
The weekly EURUSD chart reveals a primary trend that has shifted from a clear bullish recovery to a state of neutral-to-bearish consolidation. After a vigorous rally from the 2024 lows near 1.0266, price action peaked below 1.2093 in mid-2025 and has since established a series of lower highs, suggesting waning bullish momentum . This is confirmed by the RSI(14) reading of 50.66, sitting precisely on the midline and indicating a complete absence of directional momentum. Furthermore, the MACD (12,26,9), while showing a recent bullish crossover, remains in negative territory, signalling weak upside traction . The current market structure is best described as a broad consolidation range, which multiple analyses interpret as either a descending triangle or a complex double top pattern forming on the weekly timeframe .
From a classical price action perspective, the most significant levels are clearly defined. The immediate and most crucial support is the 1.1575–1.1581 zone, a multi-touch level that has acted as a firm floor since early 2025 . A confirmed weekly close below this level would be a major bearish development. Conversely, the primary resistance stands at 1.1727–1.1750, a zone that has capped advances for over a year and represents the descending trendline of the potential triangle . The broader structure is viewed by some as a massive double top pattern with a neckline near 1.1362, which would come into play on a breakdown below the immediate support . The extended consolidation inside this 200-pip range points to market indecision and a coiled state, indicating that the next breakout is likely to be significant . The overall market structure is a tense standoff between bulls defending the 1.1575 support and bears holding the line at 1.1727 resistance, with price currently pivoting around the 1.1626 weekly close .
Looking forward, the current structure presents two clear and contrasting scenarios. The bearish scenario is triggered by a weekly close below the critical 1.1575 support. This would validate the descending triangle or the right shoulder of a double top pattern, likely accelerating selling pressure towards the 1.1450–1.1362 zone . A break below this would confirm a major bearish reversal, potentially targeting the 1.0996 area and even the 2024 lows near 1.0266 . Conversely, the bullish scenario requires a decisive weekly close above the 1.1727 resistance. Such a breakout would invalidate the bearish patterns and signal a resumption of the long-term uptrend. This would need to be supported by a strong shift in momentum, likely targeting the 1.1850 area first, with the 1.2000 psychological level as the next major objective . Fundamental catalysts, such as a weaker USD from Fed rate cuts, or stronger Eurozone growth and fiscal spending, would be necessary to drive this bullish resolution .
Trade Setup Summary:
Given the neutral to bearish market structure, a high-probability approach is to wait for the market to show its hand. The prudent strategy is to favor the bearish bias on a confirmed breakdown, entering a short position on a weekly close below 1.1560, with a stop-loss placed above the resistance at 1.1730 to protect against a false breakout. The initial take-profit target would be 1.1450, offering a favorable risk-reward ratio . For a bullish trade, one should wait for a confirmed breakout above 1.1730, entering a long position with a stop-loss below the support at 1.1570 and a take-profit at 1.1850 . Until a clear break outside the 1.1575–1.1727 range is confirmed on a weekly closing basis, the most professional stance is to remain neutral, allowing price action to define the next significant trend .
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GOLD Forecast Today 31.8.2026 |XAUUSD Analysis |XAUUSD Trading Strategy #xauusd #goldanalysis #gold
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